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Medianline

Median Lines and Finding the Right Path When it comes to learning about markets and trading, finding the right path and committing to it is the hardest part. The right path has little to do with any technical analysis method. It has to do with structuring our mental framework so that we fundamentally change how we experience markets, trading, and loss. In the video, I show some Median Line and Action/Reaction work but this work is useless by itself. No tool is good or bad, they are just tools we use to comprehend markets. The problem arises when the tools start using us and we think there is some kind of magic to them. The essence of our strategy should be to structure our methods and mindset towards functionality. The journey we should commit to is one marked by fostering accountability and responsibility in all our actions. The swing trade Idea I show, takes method and structures it into function. Shane
NYSE:BXEducation
by ShaneBlankenship
2
DV - Good reasons to go longI like a clean movement of price. Certainly this is the case in $DV. What I like the most is the behavior at the Accumulation Zone. In my Video I go over this in detail and explain how one could also play it with Options. If things go the wrong way, you could even morph it into a new Strategy. Reasons to buy: - Accumulation Zone held - Rising Volume / Doubled since Oct. - CIB (Change In Behavior broken - Vol. Profile: HVN@Acummul. Zone - 80% Chance to the Center-Line Consideration: - wait for a Pull-Back to Buy and/or Sell Options to get assigned to go Long and capture Premium too. Stop/Loss: - Full body Candle Open/Close below A. Zone if long the Underlying - With Options: Start Wheel Strategy
NYSE:DVLong
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
OJ - Frozen Orange Juice Is DoneIn my YT Video Analysis I talked about, how OJ is at the Apex and has a high chance to fall down to the Center-Line. On the daily chart (see the zoomed Screenshot), you see how price is struggling to get above the U-MLH. Great signs of weakness. But beware, OJ is super illiquid. This means that this market can get pushed in any direction, in any magnitude. However, it's very cool to observe, how even such over-pumped markets react to my super tools, the Andrews Pitchfork aka. Medianlines. Let's observe how this plays out. We can learn a lot, and use this knowledge in the future for our own trading. As for the Medianline-Framework, price falls down to the Center-Line when traded outside the U-MLH, and then comes back into the Fork. Observation Mode ON! Peace4TheWorld
ICEUS:OJ1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
NVIDIA is at balance. Here are my long/short scenariosWhen you trade the Model of the Medianlines/Pitchforks, you know now that price of NVDA is at balance. Why? It's at the Center-Line. From here Chances for up or down are equal weighted Details? Well, price closed above the CL. This is bullish. Price usually pull back to it. Then it should continue to the other extreme, which is the Upper-Medianline-Parallel. If it fails it's target and instead open and close below the CL, we have a short at hand. OK, so how could we play either side? LONG: After the pullback to the CL, I watch for a upside continuation. I want price closing above a previous candle. Stop/Loss goes below the CL. Profit target is the U-MLH. SHORT: After a open/close below the CL, I'm short immediately and my stop is above the highest Bar above the CL. Profit target is the L-MLH. Save trading4all
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
CHPT - My Lotto-Ticket for ChristmasRule Nr. 1: Take it with a grain of Salt! ;-) OK, it's probably a Lotto Ticket. But IMO one with a monstrous chance of 80% if price trades within the Pitchfork. As we now, price has a 80% chance to reach the Center-Line. So, it's a Lotto Ticket with a good RIsk to Reward. Nothing more, nothing less. I'm in CHPT since over 1 year and got clapped. Ever since I was watching for any sign of a potential recovery. Nothing was showing on my radar. But now, I see a Volume that reminds me of a "Final Puke". Everyone who was long has to be scared out, before the Whales step in. Whales only buy Food for cheap. Is it cheap now? Depends on how you look at CHPT. Technically, I would say yes. Fundamentally I would say it's probably crap? Here's what I get from my fundamental Screener: "Overall CHPT gets a fundamental rating of 2 out of 10. We evaluated CHPT against 88 industry peers in the Electrical Equipment industry. Both the profitability and financial health of CHPT have multiple concerns. CHPT is valued quite expensive... ....but it does show an excellent growth." This last bit of the fundamental evaluation tells me, it's not dead yet. And who knows what they have in their back to recover? (SECULATION!!!). The Mansfield Indicator is clearly showing, that this Stock is way weaker than the S&P500. BUT - It starts to curl up... I have no clue what this Analysis is worth it. But I know what I see in the Volume and the recent Weeks drop. So, that's it for my Coffee-Ground reading. I am long the Stock, and I love the thrill it gives me for a cheap Lotto Ticket to a potential 1000% trade §8-) What ever you do with it, I'm not responsible. This is no trading advice. You will loose money! Don't follow my Analysis. It's all BS and Coffee-Ground reading with no profound reasoning §8-) Happy Christmas...oh, it's too soon...
NYSE:CHPTLong
by Tr8dingN3rd
22
NASDAQ - NQ Black-Swan ScenarioThe Red Pitchfork is a Pendulum-Fork. It grabs the biggest Swings and projects the most probable path of price, like in this chart. The Count starts at P0 and relies on the REAL Swings that I teach you guys & gals. Therefore the Bump from the green Support-Line is NOT a Up-Swing. It's just the center part of a Sine-Wave. Then P3 is created, breaking the Support from the Low of P1, and continues up to the Center-Line of the Orange Pitchfork at P4. Since we know that a) price has a high chance to turn in the opposite direction after reaching the Center-Line AND b) The Pivot Count ends and restarts at P5 AND c) Price is still trading within the Red Pendulum-Fork ...we have a 80% Chance to reach the Center-Line of the Pendulum Fork around 1100 or even lower. By when? No clue yet, but have to drink another Coffee to read in the Ground again later §8-) OK, I admit, that's a kind of a Black-Swan event. But, I just follow my rules, my Framework and that is what I currently see. The opposite side of this is, that the 0-3/5 Count is just a simple "Flag", and price Skyrockets to the green Center-Line of the Green Fork, around 16050 - 16250, Taking the overall World situation, the incredible debt of countries like the USA, EU and others into the Blue-Print, I vote for the first scenario. My Helmet sits tight. Peace4TheWorld!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
27
SPY - S&P500 - ES: Beware of the reactionDid you made some NYSE:S too following my posts? Great. But... ...now is the time to beware of the slingshot. See, price has fallen quite nicely and we are all happy campers. Now we have to defend our short position, the ground we gained. And here's why: Although price still trades within the red down-sloping Fork, there are some signs that, soon price has reached it's Max-Stretch, which is when P5/0 is in. Could be at the sliding parallel below the Center-Line, or if a little panic hit's the Market, at the L-MLH. From there, the swing count start new, but this time to the upside. We know that if price zoomed through a Center-Line, the potential for a pullback to it is a given fact. From there, price could continue to the downside, or jumps above it and closes above it. That will be a very obvious sign that price has turned to the upside-swing again. Facts: 1. Price has reached the red CL 2. RSI is oversold 3. P5 could be in 4. POC of the Volume-Profile acts as Support On the Weekly picture, price still has a long way to go, until it reaches the Center-Line of the Pendulum-Swing Fork. At the time of this writing about another 400 Points, to 3800/3750. For now, just be alert to protect your profits. Remember: You can't always eat the whole Cake! Better letting the S&P500 reload and then shoot from higher levels again and give our self another Christmas Gift. §8-) Peace4TheWorld
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Tr8dingN3rd
BTCUSD - The Battery is unloadingWeeks ago I posted here and on my website, that CRYPTOCAP:BTC is charging it's "Battery" to unload. Here we have it, a nice blast to the upside. Now, beware of the FOMO! If you missed the entry, you will probably find a better entry in a couple days. Why not just take this as a confirmation that Peeps are still willing to buy it? Sure, if you are a HODLER then it doesn't matter that much. But if you are a Trader, a Swingtrader, then it matters. Wait until News, the "Viral" SOM Hype weakens, and the FOMO crowd rushed in. Then, when BTC falls down in to the Battery again and everybody pukes the guts out, you can buy buy confidently with both hands, because you have a confirmation that price aims to the Center-Line because of the prior Breakout. At least that's my plan §8-) Yes, you could miss the Train. But hey, there's always another and maybe a better one. Peace4TheWorld N3rds.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Tr8dingN3rd
BTCUSD - Over 80% to the CenterlineIf you trade with Allan Andrews Pitchforks, then you know the framework and the rules. Rule Nr. 1 says: Price reaches the CL over 80% of time. In the current context of BTCUSD, that means a huge potential on gains if entering the market now or in the near future. But of course, we can't just trade off of this rule alone. What else would give us as traders the right to take a Long position in BTCUSD? Watch how price is stair stepping! Why does price that? From the perspective of a Forker, I would say that the pendulum is in a up-swing. And currently, if you are a trader not a hodler, then there's even a good Risk to Reward ratio, when putting a stop/loss below the last pivot low. As a position trader, I would say, it's a good level to load the boat even more. But beware! If price cant keep up with this steep angle to the upside, and starts to open and close below the Lower Line of the Fork (The L-MLH or Lower Medianline Parallel), then there is a high possibility that price as other plans, than going up to the Centerline (Medianline). Talk soon... §8-)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tr8dingN3rd
1
NVDA - Playing (with?) the crowdBesides all the crazy news, I don't believe this company what they say. IMO they just play with the crowd and make nice gains from the News they spread via the media. That's just my opinion, and I'm maybe wrong. But what about the information we can gather from the chart? I have hidden the huge GAP so that we can focus on the last weeks and days. There is a big bounce from the top that to me looks like a Flag, steering in my face. Bulls would argue that is a huge Long signal, right? OK, so be it... But what do my eyes see that makes me wake up at night? Price broke out of this Flag/bounce and within one single bar it was able to reach the Center line. This is not the norm, it's not natural. Second, watch the volume in bar 1 and 2. Should volume not explode if such a breakout is real? Well, it was not real in my trading world. The Market Maker just opened price higher, that's it. No real buyers there, just another GAP to push the price of NVDA higher. Maybe someone will appreciate this and unload it's stock? Hmmm... And where did it stopped? Right at the CL. As I always say: You can fake it, but you can't hide. §8-) My current conclusion? 1. NVDAs price is way too high. The company is not worth the current price. 2. Volume does not confirm higher price. It was made artificially by open higher and push it upwards. 3. The Center line is reached. Price found it's current balance. So, should we short it? Absolutely NOT! Without any clear indications after earnings, I don't touch this bad Boy §8-) I just watch this movie and learn...
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
MNST - Monster with a monstrous drop?Nah, not monstrous, but a drop maybe. What do we have in this chart? The up-sloping Fork projects the most probable path that price takes. So, it's up, until price is falling out of the Pitchfork. Next, the A/R or Action/Reaction lines (slight blue). All they do is measure a pullback action and project the corresponding reaction. As we see, the A/R line above the last high is not touching price, but it gives kind of a resistance to price. Then we have price itself: A huge bunching is happening up there. And, price crossed below the Center-line a couple weeks ago and is currently trading below it, with support of the EMA(30). So we land at the Indicators and Oscillators: The MACD crossed negative weeks ago. And this time the negative indication is longer than the last two times. The Mansfield Indicator shows weakness compared to the S&P500, and the RSI has taken a dive weeks ago. All this leads me to believe that we see bigger correction in MNST. Maybe not a monstrous one, but a correction down to the L-MLH. Play it save if and don't let greed eat your brain §8-)
NASDAQ:MNSTShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
3
NetFlix - Come in, the Water is fine!Below the Lower-Medianline-Parallel, the Water is fine! ,..you think? Maybe, but there's a Shark waiting for you. He's Name is "FOMO"! If you waited for a retest of the L-MLH, then you wasted your time. Here is how you trade a open/close below the L-MLH: - short immediately with a money Stop/Loss or - wait for a re-test of the L-MLH, and short from there on obvious weakness. Put your Stop behind the re-test high. But don't jump in the mouth of the "FOMO" Shark! I added the Members material on my website. Check it out, it's free for all, but you must be a brave Trader §8-)
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
Mr. S&P500, it's decision time again.So, here we are, below the red Center-Line. What now? If the Bears are successful, then we go south. Target is the at least the white Warning-Line, or the red Lower-Medianline-Parallel. What ever is hit first. On the other hand, P3 could be in and we get a bounce up for a re-test to P4. This is a tricky situation. Even more because the Nasdaq looks ready for a rebound. What shall we do? To me it's clear: - if I short it, then my stop is above the CL. I don't know where yet, but it will not be super close. I rather play it with Options to give my idea more time, even if we get a bounce for a re-test of the L-MLH (gren) or the white WL. - If I wait for more information, I accept the potential for not being on the Submarine if it tanks. What would I loose? Nothing - there's always another trade. - And finally, on a re-test of the green L-MLH/WL, I can stalk a short from there. Isn't that relaxing, to have so much opportunities? §8-) Play it save Tr8dingN3rds.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
Nasdaq Bounce from L-MLHWhat a drag yesterday. The red Fork gives us very good context. We see how price reacted two times at the Center-Line. Then came the "Flush" throu the CL with no pull-back. No Mercy! This move brought us down to the Lower-Medianline-Parallel. From here price starts to bounce. It's also a level where NQ had support (see left side). So far, divergence with the RSI is confirming a good potential for a bounce. But I don't believe in this support, until we break the downsloping "Change In Behaviour" line. Price must prove that is has enough strenght. If this CIB line gets broken, I expect a pullback to it. This would be the level where I would stalk a long entry, with a target at the Center-Line. Happy Hump-Day Tr8dingN3rds
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
Crude Oil Short OpportunityI posted a lot about Crude Oil on my Website and also on YT. The first short was nice success. Now we get the chance to do it again "Sam" §8-) This current test of the L-MLH of the white Fork was brutal. The squeeze is similar to the one of the 23rd of September. Just a little smaller, but more vicious. As for a Stop, I think it needs top be at least above P2. This gives us a Risk to Reward > 3, if price can tank down to P3, at the L-MLH of the red Pitchfork. As always, play it small in these vertical markets. Don't try to be a Hero. Just protect your Capital. All the best Tr8dingN3rds §8-)
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd