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Medianline

Nasdaq under pressure and aims for 18'400NQ is being pushed down, and a rebound doesn’t seem possible at the moment. There are some fundamental factors supporting this weakness. However, as a chart analyst, I focus on the signals within the chart itself. What I see is a possible target around 18,400, which aligns with the L-MLH. With the weakness of the MAG7, the Nasdaq is unlikely to make further gains. The options are sideways or down. The latter is what I trade according to the rulebook.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
Gold’s Next Move: Upward Momentum Building at Key SupportGold is reacting exceptionally well to the Fork. It has not opened and closed below the L-MLH within a single bar, which eliminates any immediate downside expectations. Instead, we observe a condensed, slanted trading range or coil, indicating that price is being gradually pressed to the upside. In my previous post about Gold, I anticipated a rocket-like breakout. Since then, price has simply moved down to the L-MLH, finding support there. This price action, coupled with the ongoing upward pressure, confirms my analysis—albeit slightly delayed. As NQ and S&P approach their respective targets, as outlined in my other analysis, I expect Gold to start moving upward, with targets at the CL and U-MLH.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
1
S&P 500 struggles at the 1/4 Warning LineLet's not make trading harder than it is. All we can do is project - or read the Coffee ground. I'll prefer to use my projections with the Medianlines, using the Fork as my main tool. The nice part with this is, that I can relay on a proven framework with rules. Adding some risk & money management to it and the soup is ready to enjoy. So, I follow the same process with the ES. I see that price got rejected at the 1/4 line of the WL (Warning Line), and that price missed it to reach the WL1, which is a HAGOPIAN. That makes me lean on the rule, that price will go farther in the opposite direction than from where price came from (U-MLH). I outlined the scenarios with the arrows what to expect in the next weeks. Personally I'm overall very, very bearish, and I see the move to the Centerline coming. But this is just my opinion.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
1
NVDA - A 90% Short fall to the centerline ($100-$104) or lowerDouble top, failed breakout of the high—call it what you will. Fact is, NVIDIA has taken a brutal hit and is now trading back inside the fork. Hagopian—what on earth is a HAGOPIAN? According to the Fork Framework rulebook, if the market fails to reach its next target (the next line, such as the centerline, lower median line parallel, etc.), it reverses and moves further back than where it started. This is (not so exactly) what happened in December. Instead of reaching the centerline, the market turned, shot beyond the upper median line parallel (U-MLH), and was supposed to break above the November 21st high. It missed that target as well. And this, my friends, is....? ...again, a HAGOPIAN! Now, it’s heading south again. But this time, we have an over 90% probability of reaching the centerline. Why? Because when the market breaks above the U-MLH and then falls back into the fork, it’s a very bearish signal. Of course, nothing works 100%. The market could turn around today and push past the high. But statistically, we’re aiming for the centerline—and there’s an over 90% chance we’ll hit it. When will it happen? Sorry, my crystal ball is broken. All I do is follow the Fork/Median Line rulebook and rely on my experience. As for me, I’m opening a short position in NVIDIA today and may add to it on the way down to the centerline. And I play this game with Options, so no hard price level stop for me.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
MSTR - Ponzi Loop Will Crash & BurnEvery now and then, I like to say that greed eats brains for breakfast. In the case of MSTR, though, it seems to have state approval to do so. How else could MSTR still be kicking? There’s nothing to chart here. Nada. Zip. This is pure pump-and-dump economics born out of the "perfect storm" of circumstances. Fast money? Sure, it's fast—but definitely not sustainable. It’s also a foolproof recipe for losing not just your shirt, but your pants and maybe even your dignity. Remember GME and all the other “get rich quick” lemming programs? Only a microscopic percentage actually "got rich," and an even tinier fraction stayed rich. Most of them? Just cautionary tales with a hefty dose of regret. Sorry, gamblers… err, "investors." §8-) Instead of betting the farm on people like Michael Saylor, how about this revolutionary idea: use your own brain. Learn chart analysis, develop real skills, and slowly build up a nest egg that’ll still be around when you’re old and gray. But hey, who am I to judge? MSTR SHORT until 0.0001
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
14
BITCOIN's Distribution, Greed and Dutch TulipsThe **Tulip Mania** of the 1630s was the original bubble—and it was as absurd as it was dramatic. Picture this: a single tulip bulb sold for the price of a luxurious Amsterdam townhouse. Traders flipped tulips like hotcakes, fortunes were made overnight, and the humble flower became a symbol of outrageous wealth and speculation. Then, in February 1637, the fever broke. Buyers disappeared faster than a Dutch winter thaw, and the market collapsed like a poorly built dike. Those who had mortgaged their futures for tulips were left with nothing but petals and regret. It was a dazzling rise and a catastrophic fall—a timeless lesson in the dangers of speculative greed! 🌷📉🌷📉🌷📉🌷📉🌷📉🌷📉🌷📉🌷📉🌷📉🌷📉🌷📉 Why do I write about the Tulip Crash? These days, not many young Trader and Investors know about it. And why not learn from the past? Happy profits all.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tr8dingN3rd
Crude Oil Eating Up Time - Plate almost emptyPrice bounced many times at the Green Support-Zone. It's the same level where the Huge Pendulums Fork Center-Line is (white-dashed). Next, we have the Yellow Fork. Price traded outside the L-MLH, bounced a couple times at the Support-Zone and eat up time. But now, I think the "Plate" is almost empty. Why? Price arrived at a decision point, a confluence point. This confluence point is where the Warning-Line and Price intersect. To me, a Long Trade is more likely than a Short. - world wide tensions - so many bounces at the Support-Zone, they won't let price go down much - price has not re-tested the L-MLH of the Yellow Pitchfork As this is a very long term play, it's obvious that this Chart/Idea would serve to build a position, rather than using it as a simple trade.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
MDB - Scary Pullback Or Give UpNow THIS is a heck of a scary pullback! But the sime time, for me it's a gift from the trading God to Enter/Re-Enter with a start position, if not already in. Price got rejected at the 1/4 line, which I find it does often. But this doesn't mean that the party is over. The Pitchfork/Medianlines give us the projection in time. And the white Pitchfork is pointing upwards, while the orange Pullback-Fork has a level of Support at the Center-Line. All in all, it's a nice Long for me.
NASDAQ:MDBLong
by Tr8dingN3rd
3
S&P 500 Comes Back From Extreme "Extreme"In the S&P 500, we observe a very similar scenario to the Nasdaq (see link to the NQ chart). It’s worth noting that we’ve seen this situation a few times before: the price traded outside the orange fork, moved back into the fork, but then left behind a "Hagopian" and shot back above it. This is irrational market behavior caused by artificial buying pressure (Gamma Squeeze). Now, we see the market bouncing off the 1/4 line between the warning line and the U-MLH of the white fork. And yet again, we’re trading within the orange fork. What now? Back up again or is it really heading down this time? Read my lips: "I - Don’t - Know." §8-) Buuuut, the projection and the extent of the over extension lead me to believe that this time, it’s going to crash! Like in the NQ, my stance here is **short** for the coming weeks, and possibly even months.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
NQ - Nasdaq? Read Tomorrows Wallstreet JournalIt hasn’t made any sense for a long time now how the markets keep climbing. Manipulation? Self-perpetuation? Honestly, who cares why. As the saying goes: “The dwarves dug too deep. And what they unearthed was their doom.” Or, in another version: “The greedy vultures flew too high, and all they found was gravity.” In the chart, we see two pitchforks: The orange one highlights the actual overextension. The white one represents the moderated version. Interpreting this image is simple if you have a rulebook you can trust—and a few decades of market experience under your belt. §8-) 1. **The price turns at the orange centerline.** This means the market is in "balance"—in the context of the overextension. Or… 2. **Put differently:** In the context of the white pitchfork, the market overshot the upper median line parallel. This was an overextension by a factor of 2. **What do we do with this?** We stick to the rulebook for median lines. The rulebook says that when the price trades above the U-MLH (upper median line parallel), fails to hold, and drops back into the fork, the market will fall to the next line. - **Orange fork:** Down to the L-MLH (lower median line parallel). - **White fork:** Down to the centerline. Beyond that, I **think/guess/predict/read-tea-leaves** that the market will fall much deeper in 2025. Please note the distinction here: - The first statement is the projection—the interpretation of the chart. - The latter is a speculation (no crystal ball involved). For me, it’s clear: medium-term **short** with multiple price targets.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
Gold - The Next Bitcoin?The markets are beyond stretched—they’re squeezed all the way to the moon. Today, I heard some major news: Big Money has already left the party, and others are following suit. This is HUGE. It’s also that classic moment when the barber starts sharing his “secret” stock tips. Now, if you pair this with my recent Bitcoin post—where I outlined how a tulip-like crash could unfold—you’ll see we’re staring at the perfect recipe for a stock market KABOOM. So, where will traders, investors, and even grandmas rush to when this unwinds? My bet: Gold. Where else? This is when the Gold Rocket ignites, replacing Bitcoin and the MAG7, creating yet another bubble—a glittering tulip 5.0. And just like before, it’ll burst when the fuel runs out. Buckle up! 🚀
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
3
NVIDIA - Arguments For BearsAs in my last post "Arguments For Bulls" I do my Analysis for NVDA with eyes of a Bear. We see the red down sloping Pendulum Swing Pitchfork. Because the A-Point is LOWER than the C Point, it's a Pullback Fork that would give us the potential downfall target at the Center-Line, before the Pendulum of price would swing to the upside again. - the "Trend Barrier Dow" was breached - price reacted to the tick multiple times at the U-MLH (White Rectangle) (Upper-Medianline-Parallel). This is clear resistance. - Price just filled the GAP from 3 Days ago, so it can continue in the opposite direction (down) again. So, that's it. You have 3 ways to play this: Long, Short, Flat. Earnings of such a Market influential underlying is a pure gamble. I grab some Pop-Corn and watch the show and see, which of the cases is wrong and right. §8-) Happy Profits all
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Tr8dingN3rd