NQ - Nasdaq? Read Tomorrows Wallstreet JournalIt hasn’t made any sense for a long time now how the markets keep climbing.
Manipulation? Self-perpetuation?
Honestly, who cares why. As the saying goes:
“The dwarves dug too deep. And what they unearthed was their doom.”
Or, in another version:
“The greedy vultures flew too high, and all they found was gravity.”
In the chart, we see two pitchforks:
The orange one highlights the actual overextension.
The white one represents the moderated version.
Interpreting this image is simple if you have a rulebook you can trust—and a few decades of market experience under your belt. §8-)
1. **The price turns at the orange centerline.**
This means the market is in "balance"—in the context of the overextension.
Or…
2. **Put differently:** In the context of the white pitchfork, the market overshot the upper median line parallel. This was an overextension by a factor of 2.
**What do we do with this?**
We stick to the rulebook for median lines.
The rulebook says that when the price trades above the U-MLH (upper median line parallel), fails to hold, and drops back into the fork, the market will fall to the next line.
- **Orange fork:** Down to the L-MLH (lower median line parallel).
- **White fork:** Down to the centerline.
Beyond that, I **think/guess/predict/read-tea-leaves** that the market will fall much deeper in 2025.
Please note the distinction here:
- The first statement is the projection—the interpretation of the chart.
- The latter is a speculation (no crystal ball involved).
For me, it’s clear: medium-term **short** with multiple price targets.
Medianline
Gold - The Next Bitcoin?The markets are beyond stretched—they’re squeezed all the way to the moon.
Today, I heard some major news: Big Money has already left the party, and others are following suit. This is HUGE. It’s also that classic moment when the barber starts sharing his “secret” stock tips.
Now, if you pair this with my recent Bitcoin post—where I outlined how a tulip-like crash could unfold—you’ll see we’re staring at the perfect recipe for a stock market KABOOM.
So, where will traders, investors, and even grandmas rush to when this unwinds? My bet: Gold. Where else? This is when the Gold Rocket ignites, replacing Bitcoin and the MAG7, creating yet another bubble—a glittering tulip 5.0. And just like before, it’ll burst when the fuel runs out.
Buckle up! 🚀
NVIDIA - Arguments For BearsAs in my last post "Arguments For Bulls" I do my Analysis for NVDA with eyes of a Bear.
We see the red down sloping Pendulum Swing Pitchfork. Because the A-Point is LOWER than the C Point, it's a Pullback Fork that would give us the potential downfall target at the Center-Line, before the Pendulum of price would swing to the upside again.
- the "Trend Barrier Dow" was breached
- price reacted to the tick multiple times at the U-MLH (White Rectangle) (Upper-Medianline-Parallel). This is clear resistance.
- Price just filled the GAP from 3 Days ago, so it can continue in the opposite direction (down) again.
So, that's it.
You have 3 ways to play this:
Long, Short, Flat.
Earnings of such a Market influential underlying is a pure gamble. I grab some Pop-Corn and watch the show and see, which of the cases is wrong and right. §8-)
Happy Profits all
Gold Is GO! And Everything Lined UpThe open was above the Center-Line and everything else lined up nicely.
To me this is a fair Long, with a good Stop below the last MoMo Candle.
I like to take partial profits, so I have two in this case. The first at the 1/4 line, since price has a tendency to bounce there. The second one is the Upper-Medianline-Parallel (U-MLH).
Let the fireworks begin
EURUSD Broke The Monthly SupportThe Pendulum Fork gives us good context of where Major Upper and Lower extremes are in this picture.
The rejection at the L-MLH is really a Tell, and should not be ignored then. Multiple opportunities there to go Short.
Then a small slanted support came into play, which also gives us another chance for a short.
Potential Targets are displayed by the yellow Arrows.
META - A Clear Short CandidateThere are just too many signs to not take a Short in META.
- failed to reach the Warning-Line.
- massive resistance
- breach of the Trend-Barrier
- insanely overextended
Potential (partial) targets are the
- U-MLH
- Orange CL
- White CL
- L-MLH of both
May Santa be with us §8-)
NQ - Nasdaq struggles. The weekly reveals itSee the support NQ had?
Super nice how the the Medianlines and the A/R set reveals it. But now there is some trouble in the Kitchen.
After reaching the white Center-Line, price is struggling to punch through the orange U-MLH.
If price can't fight ti's way through this resistance, it will turn south - probably very sharp.
To me, this is a cheap Short.
If I'm wrong, so be it, it's just one of 1000s of trades. But, it's a offer I can't reject §8-)
RBOB Gasoline Broke The Weekly Base SupportFrom Sep. 2022, we see the bounces at the white Centerline. This created great support, until recently Sep. 03/24.
The Base support is broken, and price failed to move up from the white Centerline.
Well, if price is not going up, it probably goes down. Potential targets are indicated by the arrows.
Dow Jones Industrial out of GasWhen I started with trading over 3 decades ago, I was told that the DJI is often the forecaster of the bigger market direction.
This week, it looks like the DOW is out of Gas.
Struggling at the U-MLH indicates the need to find balance. Balance is at the Center-Line, so DOW(n) we go.
With end of year staring at us, it's time to reduce exposure, or at least adding to the Portfolio hedge, specially when VIX is low.
A rercurring Topping Pattern - Take (partial) Profit?What's this?
..just a Pattern.
..a recurring pattern.
..a very similar, recurring pattern.
So what is this post good for?
Maybe just a heads-up?
Or just that you can roast me to point out that BTC is stretched, and has a high chance of pulling back or even going South.
However, be happy, not angry §8-)
NVDIA - Arguments For BullsMedianlines (Pitchforks) do not forecast.
They PROJECT the most probable path of price.
At each moment in time, a "Medianline/Pitchfork Analyst" can relay on the rules and the framework they provide.
In this case I see the following arguments for a continuation to the upside:
- price is above the Center-Line
- price did test the CL two times and hold
- price was attempted to test the CL a third time, but was even too strong to reach it, and is now in this very momentum to the upside
- when price trades towards a Medain-Line but can't reach it, it's a sign that price will continue the direction it had before (up in this case). The next Target is the "next" Medianline, which is the U-MLH (Upper-Medianline-Parallel)
- price broke the blue-dashed A/R line to the upside
All said, we have to keep in mind that there is also a opposite side of the Coin. I will provide another Chart Analysis with "Arguments For Bears".
BTCUSD - Bitcoin roared too high too fastNot because it's Bitcoin. But because it was pushed too fast too far. That's why BTC is stretched and has to come back to Balance.
The yellow Fork, which is a shorter term view (weekly/daily) shows us the super stretch.
It probably will take some weeks for BTC to fall back into the Fork. When it does, it's target is the white Center-Line.
Median Lines and Finding the Right Path When it comes to learning about markets and trading, finding the right path and committing to it is the hardest part. The right path has little to do with any technical analysis method. It has to do with structuring our mental framework so that we fundamentally change how we experience markets, trading, and loss.
In the video, I show some Median Line and Action/Reaction work but this work is useless by itself. No tool is good or bad, they are just tools we use to comprehend markets. The problem arises when the tools start using us and we think there is some kind of magic to them.
The essence of our strategy should be to structure our methods and mindset towards functionality. The journey we should commit to is one marked by fostering accountability and responsibility in all our actions. The swing trade Idea I show, takes method and structures it into function.
Shane
DV - Good reasons to go longI like a clean movement of price.
Certainly this is the case in $DV.
What I like the most is the behavior at the Accumulation Zone. In my Video I go over this in detail and explain how one could also play it with Options. If things go the wrong way, you could even morph it into a new Strategy.
Reasons to buy:
- Accumulation Zone held
- Rising Volume / Doubled since Oct.
- CIB (Change In Behavior broken
- Vol. Profile: HVN@Acummul. Zone
- 80% Chance to the Center-Line
Consideration:
- wait for a Pull-Back to Buy and/or
Sell Options to get assigned to go
Long and capture Premium too.
Stop/Loss:
- Full body Candle Open/Close below
A. Zone if long the Underlying
- With Options: Start Wheel Strategy
OJ - Frozen Orange Juice Is DoneIn my YT Video Analysis I talked about, how OJ is at the Apex and has a high chance to fall down to the Center-Line.
On the daily chart (see the zoomed Screenshot), you see how price is struggling to get above the U-MLH.
Great signs of weakness.
But beware, OJ is super illiquid. This means that this market can get pushed in any direction, in any magnitude.
However, it's very cool to observe, how even such over-pumped markets react to my super tools, the Andrews Pitchfork aka. Medianlines.
Let's observe how this plays out.
We can learn a lot, and use this knowledge in the future for our own trading.
As for the Medianline-Framework, price falls down to the Center-Line when traded outside the U-MLH, and then comes back into the Fork.
Observation Mode ON!
Peace4TheWorld
NVIDIA is at balance. Here are my long/short scenariosWhen you trade the Model of the Medianlines/Pitchforks, you know now that price of NVDA is at balance.
Why?
It's at the Center-Line.
From here Chances for up or down are equal weighted
Details?
Well, price closed above the CL. This is bullish.
Price usually pull back to it.
Then it should continue to the other extreme, which is the Upper-Medianline-Parallel.
If it fails it's target and instead open and close below the CL, we have a short at hand.
OK, so how could we play either side?
LONG:
After the pullback to the CL, I watch for a upside continuation. I want price closing above a previous candle. Stop/Loss goes below the CL.
Profit target is the U-MLH.
SHORT:
After a open/close below the CL, I'm short immediately and my stop is above the highest Bar above the CL.
Profit target is the L-MLH.
Save trading4all
CHPT - My Lotto-Ticket for ChristmasRule Nr. 1: Take it with a grain of Salt! ;-)
OK, it's probably a Lotto Ticket.
But IMO one with a monstrous chance of 80% if price trades within the Pitchfork. As we now, price has a 80% chance to reach the Center-Line.
So, it's a Lotto Ticket with a good RIsk to Reward.
Nothing more, nothing less.
I'm in CHPT since over 1 year and got clapped.
Ever since I was watching for any sign of a potential recovery. Nothing was showing on my radar.
But now, I see a Volume that reminds me of a "Final Puke". Everyone who was long has to be scared out, before the Whales step in. Whales only buy Food for cheap.
Is it cheap now?
Depends on how you look at CHPT.
Technically, I would say yes.
Fundamentally I would say it's probably crap?
Here's what I get from my fundamental Screener:
"Overall CHPT gets a fundamental rating of 2 out of 10. We evaluated CHPT against 88 industry peers in the Electrical Equipment industry. Both the profitability and financial health of CHPT have multiple concerns. CHPT is valued quite expensive...
....but it does show an excellent growth."
This last bit of the fundamental evaluation tells me, it's not dead yet. And who knows what they have in their back to recover? (SECULATION!!!).
The Mansfield Indicator is clearly showing, that this Stock is way weaker than the S&P500.
BUT - It starts to curl up...
I have no clue what this Analysis is worth it.
But I know what I see in the Volume and the recent Weeks drop.
So, that's it for my Coffee-Ground reading.
I am long the Stock, and I love the thrill it gives me for a cheap Lotto Ticket to a potential 1000% trade §8-)
What ever you do with it, I'm not responsible.
This is no trading advice. You will loose money! Don't follow my Analysis. It's all BS and Coffee-Ground reading with no profound reasoning §8-)
Happy Christmas...oh, it's too soon...
PLTR - Palantir is banging its head against a wall of sellersThat's brutal!
This Stock seems to like some clapping.
It bangs against the Lower Medianline Parallel like there is no tomorrow.
Well, that's a good reason to short NYSE:PLTR :
- trading outside the Fork
- prior, and current resistance at the L-MLH
- trades at the top of the resistance zone
I go with a nice Risk-Reversal of 120 Days.
Oh, please, can one wake me up when price is at $10 - Thanks Mates.
NASDAQ - NQ Black-Swan ScenarioThe Red Pitchfork is a Pendulum-Fork.
It grabs the biggest Swings and projects the most probable path of price, like in this chart.
The Count starts at P0 and relies on the REAL Swings that I teach you guys & gals. Therefore the Bump from the green Support-Line is NOT a Up-Swing. It's just the center part of a Sine-Wave.
Then P3 is created, breaking the Support from the Low of P1, and continues up to the Center-Line of the Orange Pitchfork at P4.
Since we know that
a) price has a high chance to turn in the opposite direction after reaching the Center-Line
AND
b) The Pivot Count ends and restarts at P5
AND
c) Price is still trading within the Red Pendulum-Fork
...we have a 80% Chance to reach the Center-Line of the Pendulum Fork around 1100 or even lower.
By when?
No clue yet, but have to drink another Coffee to read in the Ground again later §8-)
OK, I admit, that's a kind of a Black-Swan event.
But, I just follow my rules, my Framework and that is what I currently see.
The opposite side of this is, that the 0-3/5 Count is just a simple "Flag", and price Skyrockets to the green Center-Line of the Green Fork, around 16050 - 16250,
Taking the overall World situation, the incredible debt of countries like the USA, EU and others into the Blue-Print, I vote for the first scenario.
My Helmet sits tight.
Peace4TheWorld!
SPY - S&P500 - ES: Beware of the reactionDid you made some NYSE:S too following my posts?
Great. But...
...now is the time to beware of the slingshot.
See, price has fallen quite nicely and we are all happy campers. Now we have to defend our short position, the ground we gained. And here's why:
Although price still trades within the red down-sloping Fork, there are some signs that, soon price has reached it's Max-Stretch, which is when P5/0 is in. Could be at the sliding parallel below the Center-Line, or if a little panic hit's the Market, at the L-MLH.
From there, the swing count start new, but this time to the upside.
We know that if price zoomed through a Center-Line, the potential for a pullback to it is a given fact. From there, price could continue to the downside, or jumps above it and closes above it. That will be a very obvious sign that price has turned to the upside-swing again.
Facts:
1. Price has reached the red CL
2. RSI is oversold
3. P5 could be in
4. POC of the Volume-Profile acts as Support
On the Weekly picture, price still has a long way to go, until it reaches the Center-Line of the Pendulum-Swing Fork. At the time of this writing about another 400 Points, to 3800/3750.
For now, just be alert to protect your profits. Remember: You can't always eat the whole Cake! Better letting the S&P500 reload and then shoot from higher levels again and give our self another Christmas Gift. §8-)
Peace4TheWorld