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BTCUSD - Over 80% to the CenterlineIf you trade with Allan Andrews Pitchforks, then you know the framework and the rules. Rule Nr. 1 says: Price reaches the CL over 80% of time. In the current context of BTCUSD, that means a huge potential on gains if entering the market now or in the near future. But of course, we can't just trade off of this rule alone. What else would give us as traders the right to take a Long position in BTCUSD? Watch how price is stair stepping! Why does price that? From the perspective of a Forker, I would say that the pendulum is in a up-swing. And currently, if you are a trader not a hodler, then there's even a good Risk to Reward ratio, when putting a stop/loss below the last pivot low. As a position trader, I would say, it's a good level to load the boat even more. But beware! If price cant keep up with this steep angle to the upside, and starts to open and close below the Lower Line of the Fork (The L-MLH or Lower Medianline Parallel), then there is a high possibility that price as other plans, than going up to the Centerline (Medianline). Talk soon... §8-)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tr8dingN3rd
1
NVDA - Playing (with?) the crowdBesides all the crazy news, I don't believe this company what they say. IMO they just play with the crowd and make nice gains from the News they spread via the media. That's just my opinion, and I'm maybe wrong. But what about the information we can gather from the chart? I have hidden the huge GAP so that we can focus on the last weeks and days. There is a big bounce from the top that to me looks like a Flag, steering in my face. Bulls would argue that is a huge Long signal, right? OK, so be it... But what do my eyes see that makes me wake up at night? Price broke out of this Flag/bounce and within one single bar it was able to reach the Center line. This is not the norm, it's not natural. Second, watch the volume in bar 1 and 2. Should volume not explode if such a breakout is real? Well, it was not real in my trading world. The Market Maker just opened price higher, that's it. No real buyers there, just another GAP to push the price of NVDA higher. Maybe someone will appreciate this and unload it's stock? Hmmm... And where did it stopped? Right at the CL. As I always say: You can fake it, but you can't hide. §8-) My current conclusion? 1. NVDAs price is way too high. The company is not worth the current price. 2. Volume does not confirm higher price. It was made artificially by open higher and push it upwards. 3. The Center line is reached. Price found it's current balance. So, should we short it? Absolutely NOT! Without any clear indications after earnings, I don't touch this bad Boy §8-) I just watch this movie and learn...
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
MNST - Monster with a monstrous drop?Nah, not monstrous, but a drop maybe. What do we have in this chart? The up-sloping Fork projects the most probable path that price takes. So, it's up, until price is falling out of the Pitchfork. Next, the A/R or Action/Reaction lines (slight blue). All they do is measure a pullback action and project the corresponding reaction. As we see, the A/R line above the last high is not touching price, but it gives kind of a resistance to price. Then we have price itself: A huge bunching is happening up there. And, price crossed below the Center-line a couple weeks ago and is currently trading below it, with support of the EMA(30). So we land at the Indicators and Oscillators: The MACD crossed negative weeks ago. And this time the negative indication is longer than the last two times. The Mansfield Indicator shows weakness compared to the S&P500, and the RSI has taken a dive weeks ago. All this leads me to believe that we see bigger correction in MNST. Maybe not a monstrous one, but a correction down to the L-MLH. Play it save if and don't let greed eat your brain §8-)
NASDAQ:MNSTShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
3
NetFlix - Come in, the Water is fine!Below the Lower-Medianline-Parallel, the Water is fine! ,..you think? Maybe, but there's a Shark waiting for you. He's Name is "FOMO"! If you waited for a retest of the L-MLH, then you wasted your time. Here is how you trade a open/close below the L-MLH: - short immediately with a money Stop/Loss or - wait for a re-test of the L-MLH, and short from there on obvious weakness. Put your Stop behind the re-test high. But don't jump in the mouth of the "FOMO" Shark! I added the Members material on my website. Check it out, it's free for all, but you must be a brave Trader §8-)
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
Mr. S&P500, it's decision time again.So, here we are, below the red Center-Line. What now? If the Bears are successful, then we go south. Target is the at least the white Warning-Line, or the red Lower-Medianline-Parallel. What ever is hit first. On the other hand, P3 could be in and we get a bounce up for a re-test to P4. This is a tricky situation. Even more because the Nasdaq looks ready for a rebound. What shall we do? To me it's clear: - if I short it, then my stop is above the CL. I don't know where yet, but it will not be super close. I rather play it with Options to give my idea more time, even if we get a bounce for a re-test of the L-MLH (gren) or the white WL. - If I wait for more information, I accept the potential for not being on the Submarine if it tanks. What would I loose? Nothing - there's always another trade. - And finally, on a re-test of the green L-MLH/WL, I can stalk a short from there. Isn't that relaxing, to have so much opportunities? §8-) Play it save Tr8dingN3rds.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
Nasdaq Bounce from L-MLHWhat a drag yesterday. The red Fork gives us very good context. We see how price reacted two times at the Center-Line. Then came the "Flush" throu the CL with no pull-back. No Mercy! This move brought us down to the Lower-Medianline-Parallel. From here price starts to bounce. It's also a level where NQ had support (see left side). So far, divergence with the RSI is confirming a good potential for a bounce. But I don't believe in this support, until we break the downsloping "Change In Behaviour" line. Price must prove that is has enough strenght. If this CIB line gets broken, I expect a pullback to it. This would be the level where I would stalk a long entry, with a target at the Center-Line. Happy Hump-Day Tr8dingN3rds
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
Crude Oil Short OpportunityI posted a lot about Crude Oil on my Website and also on YT. The first short was nice success. Now we get the chance to do it again "Sam" §8-) This current test of the L-MLH of the white Fork was brutal. The squeeze is similar to the one of the 23rd of September. Just a little smaller, but more vicious. As for a Stop, I think it needs top be at least above P2. This gives us a Risk to Reward > 3, if price can tank down to P3, at the L-MLH of the red Pitchfork. As always, play it small in these vertical markets. Don't try to be a Hero. Just protect your Capital. All the best Tr8dingN3rds §8-)
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
GOOG - Why a 25% drop Is lurking in Google StockSometimes live can be simple. This trade is simple to me. Let's examine it: 1. Over all Indexes are not favoring the long side. 2. Price reached the Center line and get pushed back. 3. The Divergence in the RSI is significant. ...and the rest is Risk & Money management. My stop goes a couple points above the last high. But I probably play it with Options and give me at least 100 days to expiry (DTE). Simple enough? §8-) Happy trading folks.
NASDAQ:GOOGShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
COIN - Further Lows On The PlateThe last chart i COIN I showed you (see linked) was a nice play. Will this one cooperate too? Let's analyze the chart: The white Fork's CL was reached. It came down hard and fell beyond the L-MLH. We see the orange Fork, a pullback Fork. Price struggled to jump above it's CL a view days ago, and now opened and closed below it, AND below the white Forks L-MLH. Because I want to give this trade a little room, I initiated an Options Strategy by combining Short & Long Spreads. You can see in the Black Window (Graph), there is plenty of room to let it go against the initial idea. The B/E point is at the $85 short Call. When time passes and price would stay exactly where it is now, the position would create a little profit. If price is going up and stays between the horizontal line (yellow Arrow in the Graph), we profit. If price of COIN starts to fall, we make profits along the dotted white line. So, what's the benefit of this trade? Why not play it directional by just shorting COIN? 1. There's a time decay involved. My short Call-Debit-Spread generates money, every day by decaying in value. 2. There's the directional aspect. If price cooperates, then the position profits from the "right" movement AND 1. Downside? If price MOVES (it HAS to move) in the wrong direction above $85, then I loose with both positions. Luckily I can manage this options strategy when ever I want. I can open and/or close Spreads, I can add or remove Legs in favor of my position. I can add Stocks Long OR Short. Too complicated? I learned, that success does not just come from a 1-Trick trading Setup/System. If you want to survive in to-days markets, you have to learn, adapt and never stop this process. I personally like to have as many possibilities to skin my Cats as possible. I'm a Nerd, a Tr8dingN3rd and I live for what I do §8-)
NASDAQ:COINShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
CL - Crude Oil Bold CallOh my..I think something big is on the way. Let's first look at what we see on the chart: It's a long-term chart, where each candlestick represents 3 months. Why did I take 3 months? Because I wanted to see the big picture. Look at the red frame. This is a daily chart, and with all the candles going up and down like a rollercoaster, it's messy and will keep you up all night. The yellow chart is the same, but here I have only taken the swings and hidden the bars. And that's real peace of mind. It's clean and shows you where the real pivots are. Let's go to the main chart. The pitchfork goes back to the low we had in the 80s. This is the anchor for the A point. Then the top for B and the negative for C. Do you see how the middle line catches the resistance and the support? What else? It's clean too. Going up in the time frame hides the noise. From now on, the last 3 candles also have support at the centre line. And if I apply Human-AI-Pattern-Recognition (...what a word ;-), then I see a potential huge run-up towards the U-MLH (Upper-Medianline-Parallel). Another fact that supports this thesis is that the USD has the potential to fall (see DXY analysis). And of course there will be other economic influences that will throw "oil" into the fire... kinda weird §8-) However, as we can never have the whole cake and eat it too quickly without the cook cutting off our fingers, we have to wait for the first break of the last swing high, which can be clearly seen in the yellow frame. Or we can start building a position now, taking on more risk but being rewarded with huge upside potential over the next few years. However, my position with this analysis will be very long term. How will I play it? I don't know yet, but I'm considering building a CL monster with Black Magic Options Voodoo §8-) Hope this helps and have a relaxing weekend.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tr8dingN3rd
1
S&P500 - 0 To 5 Count seems to confirm the ShortIn my previous post, I said that we have a short at hand in the SP500/ES. 1. ES Trigger Candle Bearish That was before P0 2. ES has reached the TOP for now That was at P3 In both postings price was not able to reach at least the Warning line (dashed white). Now we have the 0 to 5 count confirming what happens when price trades below a Medianline, in this case the L-MLH where at P3 price banged it's head. So, what now? At P3 price was testing the L-MLH. Now we will get a re-test at "P5 & Trun". From there, another short is on the plate and I will load the boat probably on a intraday basis priceaction. Is it possible that price will trade back into the Fork? Sure, that happens now and then. And it could also this time. That's why we have to trade accordingly and use our Money/Risk management to protect our capital. I'm in holiday, so there won't be as many updates as normally. Trade save & t'care out there.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Tr8dingN3rd
1
FRHC - Freedom Holding Corp Topping.I read about Freedom Holding Corp in the recent Hindenburg Research paper. It sounded quite alarming, but I was considering ignoring the report for an hour and focusing on my chart analysis. Here's my analysis: First of all, this stock appears to resemble one of those Pump & Dump scams. However, let's take a closer look at the chart facts: THE FORK ...indicates that a climax might be imminent. The price has just reached the Upper-Medianline-Parallel, and the rejection is evident from the candle's wick as of today. It's important to note that this is a monthly chart, and we still have a few days to go! ZERO TO FIVE COUNT Even the 0-5 Count suggests a potential 5-High, implying that the peak might have been reached, and a reversal could be on the horizon. DIVERGENCE DIVERGENCE Yes, there are two divergences, and they are quite significant! THE SHARK CANDLE You might hear a whisper of "...come in, the water is fine" when observing the volume and upward movement in this month's candle. But be cautious – this whisper could be the sharks luring the guppies, only to devour them later. You could end up becoming a feast of "Fish & Chips" §8-) By now, you probably understand my thoughts and potential plan. I'm leaning towards a short position, but I won't let greed cloud my judgment. This will just be another trade, even though the chart analysis is aligned with Hindenburg Research's findings. I'll allocate my usual 1% - 2% of my stake for this trade. My aim is to make money, not to become a hero. I intend to continue profiting over the next 20 years (assuming I survive these tumultuous times). Always remember that markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. So, why not savor a good trade and find contentment in a piece of the pie? §8-)
NASDAQ:FRHCShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
S&P500 -ES has reached the Top for now.This is my 100% believe, that the S&P500 has reached at least a temporary high. From here we will go down, at least to the dashed WL (Warning Line). We had the Open & Close below the Lower Medianline Parallel. But price couldn't reach the WL. So, that means we had a HAGOPIAN cooking. A HAGOPIAN means, that price will go further in the opposite direction than from where price came. And this rule was right. SP500 was going up like there is no tomorrow. Just stupid buying all the way. Today it found it's wall, banging it's had on the Lower Medianline Parallel. This was the first Test. As we know, price can create multiple tests before dropping down. I was observing price action the last couple weeks and it was Insanity at it's best. Be it from Algos or HFT's, I don't care. I just follow my rules and currently they say: <<< IT's OVA >>> So, I follow my Medianline/Fork Rules and I'm Short. The target is as of my rules, the next Line, which is the Warning Line. Interestingly it's also where price intersects with the bigger (Green) Pendulum Swing Fork. Let's have a Christmas experience §8-)
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
PFE - Pfizer drop from medain line.Here's not much on the chart. But what you see is evident. The pitchforks median line is respected by price many times. And this time it's the same. But there's a reason why this time price could flush down to the L-MLH. Indexes are weaker and weaker. The first profit target for me is either the L-MLH, or the A/R (yellow) line. The Action/Reaction line is projected from above's swing range. So, there we have another one to the short side. I have more short charts than longs. However, I always try to keep my overall portfolio balanced. How? There are always industries and sectors which perform to the long side, even when markets tank. It's simple but it takes effort.
NYSE:PFEShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
OKTA - High Long Potential - Minimalists AnalysisI'm absolutely NO fundamental analyst. I literally have no good clue how to read the fundamentals like the Pro's are doing. And I don't plan to learn it in the near future. BUT... ...I trust my common sense. The Blue Box explains my common sense thinking and why I see OCTA as a potential buy for the long term. What I know for sure are my TA skills. And what I see there is, that price respects the L-MLH of the Andrews Pitchfork. The Green Box shows the support range. If you zoom closer you see the "Trigger" bar (green) which started the up-move. The Blue Boxes are just for myself. I cut out the noise by splicing the inside bars and outside bars to one block. That makes the chart reading easier. What else do we have in the TA arsenal? The MACD and the Mansfield RS. You probably know what the MACD projects. The Mansfield Relative Strenght is not known very widely. Nonetheless it does it's job by measuring the evolution of OCTAs price compared to the SPX over an average of 52 periods by default. So, bringing it all together: If price don't drop below the Forks lower line (The L-MLH or Lower Medianline Parallel), AND both, MACD and Mansfield are positive AND the volume starts to rise furious, then my Gatling fires from all guns. §8-) Wish you all a happy weekend.
NASDAQ:OKTALong
by Tr8dingN3rd
4