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Medianlines

GBPAUD in an Accelerated TrendPrice has started to trend outside the fork, which means the trend's become relatively strong. The GBP is weakest currency of all the majors, whereas the AUD is still very strong. The pound's momentum is in a recovery (rising) phase - thus the correction. The AUD's momentum is already at the oversold levels. The correction, if continues higher, is likely to reach as far as 0.382 retracement, where price should bounce off the lower median line parallel. If you apply 1.618 of the size of the most recent correction, you'll get a price level that roughly coincides with that retracement area. Anyway, I believe the force of the down trend is going to catch up with it, sooner or later... ----------- Disclaimer: There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading forex. I assume no responsibility or liability for any trading or investment results. My posted statements and charts may unintentionally include inaccuracies. All content posted is for educational purposes only and is not a financial advice. The presented set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell.
Short
by ForceFollower
6
New lower low in USDCAD marks a need for re-evaluationAfter the large up move from A to B price has started to consolidate. Rather than find support at the lows at C, price has blown through those lows and the .382 retracement. Median line theory tells us that if price passes through one line of a median set, it will likely reach the other. Since there seems to be no end in sight to the down move, since we are seeing nothing but bearish bars, we need to wait for evidence before we know what to do next. If we form some kind of consolidation sideways and stop printing red bar after red bar, we can think about getting long. The idea being that the lows at C had many stops that needed to be cleared out of the market before price could go higher. This is a classic wash and rinse type pattern. If price does not consolidate or show some bullish bars, I don't see much of anything to do. If weakness continues all the way down to the lower median line around D, then looking for a small scalp from D to E might be possible, with the proper evidence and a small stop to provide a decent risk to reward. If that trade isn't viable, (bad stop or bad risk to reward...or no evidence of a reason to get long) then waiting to shot up near the old highs somewhere around the line at E would be the next opportunity. Patience is key when things get sloppy. Let's see how things shake out before we get involved again.
by iTradingForex
4
GBPUSD AnalysisIt seems to me that GBPUSD is gathering energy for the last move down - to reach the big-scale 50% reatrecement at 1.6522. The 1.66 key level has proved to be a strong resistance for the recent price action. Should it fail to hold though, price might get to the median line, thus retracing 61.8% of the recent swing down. But the down trend is very strong. GBPUSD has been in the strongest trend of all the majors. So the odds are rather with the sellers piling up their orders along the bear trend line. The price distance to the target 50% retracement is exactly as much as what market had made to the upside on Aug 20th, so 1.66 seems to be a balance line, along which the action to the upside is going to produce reaction to the downside. Let's see how it develops. ----------- Disclaimer: There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading forex. I assume no responsibility or liability for any trading or investment results. My posted statements and charts may unintentionally include inaccuracies. All content posted is for educational purposes only and is not a financial advice. The presented set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell.
Short
by ForceFollower
21
CADJPY In CorrectionThe CAD has been relatively neutral (though strongish during the correction), whereas the JPY has kept on being strong in the long-term perspective. In terms of the cycles of momentum of both currencies, the CAD seems to be likely to complete its rising phase and the JPY about to strengthen a bit. The trend is still down. Now that price has approached the upper MLH of a down sloping Schiff pitchfork, there's some good (approx. 80%) chance that the selling pressure intensifies and the rally gives way to a decline back towards the median line. This is also where the basic Fib levels coincide. ----------- Disclaimer: There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading forex. I assume no responsibility or liability for any trading or investment results. My posted statements and charts may unintentionally include inaccuracies. All content posted is for educational purposes only and is not a financial advice. The presented set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell.
Short
by ForceFollower
10
NZDJPY Heading for the 84 HandleThe NZD has been relatively weak and the JPY - almost as strong as the USD. Thus the bull trend line was broken two weeks ago, after a failure to make a new high. Since then it's been following a down fork. At first we saw price dancing above the median line, but most recently there have been more frequent excursions beneath it. So I think it's quite probable that this correction may go down as low as 84, which a level where the 38.2% retracement coincides with the 138.2% alternate price projection of the Apr-May swing down. And yet it has to taken into account that price is at a strong support level that can stop and reverse the ongoing decline. Should a surprise rally take place, I wouldn't expect it to retrace more than 50% of the entire descent. ----------- Disclaimer: There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading forex. I assume no responsibility or liability for any trading or investment results. My posted statements and charts may unintentionally include inaccuracies. All content posted is for educational purposes only and is not a financial advice. The presented set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell.
Short
by ForceFollower
1