UKX Daily - Ideally like to see 6600 gap filledWent underweight on Monday following the euphoria (extremely overbought on shorter time frames). Hoping for a pullback to the 6600 region where the price action gapped higher to start scaling back in - will also be a re-test of the breakout. However, there is a potential bull flag developing on the hourly chart (chart to follow). We currently in no-mans land as we await further developments.
Mediumterm
Special Analysis: The super strategy correlated!!!In this special analysis, I show two pars:
1. Euro/Sterling Pound
2. Sterling Pound/ U.S. Dollar
So, in general, in both pars we see a good opportunity of both of 200 pips o earning. The difference is that one of the long position and the other hand is for short position.
Euro/Sterling Pound:
1. In Daily or H4 timeframe we see that Euro is into the demand zone.
2. Sterling Pound has issue in the UK government and No-Deal Brexit
3. We see that Euro formed a bullish rising wedge, that show a good objective of the profit of 200 pips!!!
Sterling Pound/ U.S. Dollar:
1. In Daily timeframe o H4 timeframe we see that Sterling Pound is into the supply zone.
2. Sterling Pound has issue in the UK government and No-Deal Brexit. that will resume that we could have a more issue in United Kingdom has we see the past fundamental key that I writing in my technical analysis as:
a. Restrictions in the UK coronavirus in the UK system political, hospital, enterainment, universities, business and all UK market
labour
b. The UK goernment want to provide a negative interest rate in United Kingdom putting in warning the Brisish currency.
3. Investor's has in eyes a dangerous cautions as the British economy is set upon by months of uncertainy as we heard towars the winter months-and Brexit.
4. As the same time, we suppose that United States it's going into the post-recuperation about the U.S. stimulus package for american citizens, american business and more!!!
That is my comparasion about what United Kingdom is enfocous in their plans. So, I believe that we see the Euro and U.S. Dollar agains the Sterling Pound is save the safe haven assets at the moment in cases that the British currency is goes to warn the thins in the No Deal brexit negotiations and more restricions seriously in United Kingdom. So, I see that Euro/Sterling Pound is bullish and Sterling Pound/U.S. Dollar is bearish and bouth in medium term!!!
Guys, if you like this comparasion and correlation about the difference of Euro and Sterlign Pound, and U.S. Dollar, please give me a like and support this idea that other traders and people know this secret information that you will need to take in noticed it and to put this analysis in the top!!!
ARKBTC - possible long planWEEKLY:
-MACD heading for bull territory and ticked up
-RSI got into bullish territory also
-10DWMA about to cross 20WMA
- 50WMA seems to be holding as support
-some heavy buys detected and has some events coming-up for the end of the month
-we can also see higher lows forming and a higher high
-if it closes below the trendline we probably going to get a lower low
Tools
EMA's 8/13/21/55 (scalp)
MA's 10/20/50/100/200 (swing trade)
RSI , MACD , VOLUME , FIBONACCI,DIVERGENCE
STANDARD PIVOTS , CANDLES, TRENDLINES
EURUSD Short Setup on Medium Term (High Volatility)Price entered Seller Zone
Price may retest recent R level several times or violate it and create False breakout
*money management is required
*pay attention to Candlestick Pattern
*wait for proper confirmation
*High Volatility = proceed with high caution
*use Trailing Stop to avoid sudden spike
June 9th General OverviewI know there is a lot going on in this chart... but it can be broken down into these simple components. PLEASE READ SUMMARY SECTION:
Bullish (Green Box):
1. Pattern break: For the past month, it looks like we have been accumulating in a pattern similar to a symmetric triangle. With the recent pump, we broke out of this triangle to the topside and the dump resulted in a near-perfect retest on the higher timeframes. Since it did not break back into or below the formation this can be considered a successful retest and not necessarily a fakeout. This incites bullish bias and yields a predicted move to about 11k.
2. This 11k target aligns nicely with the 100% fully realized target of the fib extensions based on a corrective wave I to II in the outlined Elliot cycle.
3. Bullish fib retracement: from 0 to I (Elliot wave) - every time the golden 0.5 - 0.618 region is tested bulls successfully defend price action.
4. Stochastics falling back into a bullish control zone and flashing a hidden bullish divergence.
5. (Not pictured) - Bears just manged to tap 25x long liquidation levels, bulls expected to return the favor with a 25x short tap around 10k.
Bearish (Red Boxes):
1. Bearish fib retracement: placed based on the corrective wave I to II - bears have also managed to defend their own respective 0.5 - 0.618 region (with only 2 tests).
2. Profit-taking + volume resistance: The 2nd red box outlines a region of heavy volume resistance and coincides with the 50-61.8% region from a fib extension drawn between 0-I-II on the presented Elliot cycle, which is usually a profit-taking area for many algos and traders (is a bullish target - hence creates selling pressure).
3. Price action has been crawling along the 21 EMA - closing above it indicates bullish control but continuously testing it only makes it weaker.
Summary:
Overall analysis indicates a bullish bias. However, currently, we are either experiencing a 3 wave corrective structure. The final C wave can either have already been completed (if wicks are counted - identified by the blue arrow in the diagram) or could experience one more drive to the downside to tap the 50-61.8% shorting target area (based on fib extension on the recent dump). Breaking past 9k would be dangerous for the bulls. However, this does present a good buying zone if you are bullish. Although price action could also continue climbing from current levels as oscillators are returning to bullish biased levels.
It is important to also consider a bearish scenario. Firstly, the bullish control zone has been tested many more times than the bearish control zones and hence could be losing bullish momentum. I think it is possible that price action pumps through the first red box (0.5-0.618 bearish control zone) but then gets rejected by the 2nd red box. Psychologically 10k is a very important number and can result in a decent amount of FOMO to then be trapped in the 10.2-10.4k region. FOMO coupled with strong volume resistance and longs taking profit can result in either a small pullback with consolidation into another bullish drive or a strong breakdown of the price. A breakdown would confirm the completion of the 5th wave of a greater Elliot cycle (outlined in my other idea - please check it out) and could result in a turnaround of overall sentiment and begin a greater corrective formation (3 waves to the downside)
XRP outlook for the next four monthsAll projects take time and require patience, but with limited visible progress in recent years for XRP both the short and medium term outlook is bearish. Long term prospects for XRP depend entirely if you are a believer or not, so if you are a believer the long term future is naturally extremely bullish.
However, since XRP has made only lower highs for two years now, it is logical to say that if you intend to be a long term HODLer, waiting until confirmation of a higher high will likely leave you with far bigger bags should the moon occur.
Technical Analysis
From a purely TA perspective, the weekly chart now has a hat trick of death crosses, with the 200MA crossing above the 100MA, those above the 50MA, and all of them above the 21EMA.
XRP has been moving mostly within a downward channel for the past 21 months.
For the past 7 months the 50 Moving Average has been giving extreme resistance
For the past 2 years a long term resistance line has been present.
Rather pleasingly the downward channel, 50MA, and resistance line are now fully aligned... no-one can disagree that XRP is fundamentally a bearish chart.
Fundamental Analysis
Ripple has revealed they pay clients (such as Moneygram) to use its products, which is understandable if you want to drive adoption, but also disappointing because you would rather hope if Ripple's products were so revolutionary they would sell themselves.
Co-founder Jed McCaleb still has some 4.7 billion XRP (having already sold over 1 billion), which he is allowed to sell to a strict schedule of between 750 million and 2 billion per year. Owning some 5% of all XRP in existence and apparently keen to cash out (McCaleb sold 54 million XRP between 1-30th April 2020 alone), even if he isn't pushing the price down, he certainly isn't helping push it up.
Ripple still has 49.4 billion XRP in escrow, with batches scheduled for release right up to summer 2024.
The next four months
XRP will attempt to hold $0.14, but if it falls through (as it did during the flash crash a month back), expect it to grind down to support at $0.06 - a more than 66% discount on today's price and 90% off 18 months ago. However support will then become resistance and XRP will naturally find it hard to get back up past $0.14.
Conclusion
Ultimately partnerships are not currently translating into sustained growth of network traffic, but IF Ripple can eventually drum up big demand for ODL, the potential for XRP is huge on a long term scale. Until then the trend is your friend.
Save crucial space on your Trading View chart by utilising the free RSI and StochRSI indicator which overlays both in a clear and helpful fashion. Add the essential EMA/SMA indicator to your chart too.
Please give me a thumbs up and follow me if you found my analysis interesting. This is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
BTC outlook for next four monthsThe self-fulfilling prophecy of a post-halving dump combined with a three year old pennant structure is keeping us in an increasingly small range, meaning we should be relatively neutral on BTC, in the medium term only.
Short term a grind back to $6k pennant+200MA support is highly probable.
Medium term a move back up to $8.2k resistance.
Long term the journey to $1 million in 2026 continues.
CME Futures Gaps
Like it or not, self-fulfilling prophecy or not, CME Futures gaps always fill eventually. With gaps at $3580, $9500 & $11000, that would mean a quick collapse spike down to sub $3.5k (don't say this is impossible - we literally just went sub-$4k a few weeks ago and the biggest global recession in centuries is just warming up). After that I'm very confident BTC will sweep past $9.5 in the coming months and $11k will obviously fill when we finally make the push to a new ATH. I have the expectation we will move sideways for longer than expected before true upward momentum begins in 2021.
Save crucial space on your Trading View chart by utilising the free RSI and StochRSI indicator which overlays both in a clear and helpful fashion. Add the essential EMA/SMA indicator to your chart too.
Please give me a thumbs up and follow me if you found my analysis interesting. This is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
May 10th Medium Timeframe Analysis Bullish Confirmations:
- Would need to close above the 21 EMA
- Close above volume support
- Close above major 0.236 retracement level (thick dotted red line)
Bearish Confirmation:
- Closing below 21 EMA
- Closing below volume support
- Strong rejections off the 0.236 levels
Target zones can act as pivot points and buy zones are contingent on momentum and reassessment before entry.
Is this a bear flag? We'll find out todayStng has some incredible volatility over the last days as well as record high volumes. Kinda an unpredictable stock for the short-term. Oil is rising again and tanker rates are falling. Imo Q1&Q2 are already priced in. Today's results will help us understand where this one is going...
April 30th Medium Term Bearish ScenarioThe market is at the cusp of very volatile activity. Movement can happen in either direction. This idea is drawn up on the daily time-frame and is a plan for the next couple of weeks. Not much to say right now but will be updating the post if bearish movement is confirmed. For now, I am preparing for movement in either direction, waiting for trend confirmation.
April 30th Medium Term Bullish ScenarioThe market is at the cusp of very volatile activity. Movement can happen in either direction. This idea is drawn up on the daily and 2D time-frame and is a plan for the next couple of weeks and should be used in conjunction with my bearish scenario as both are valid. Not much to say right now but will be updating the post if bullish movement is confirmed. For now, I am preparing for movement in either direction, waiting for trend confirmation.
ORBEX: CADCHF - Primary C Expected to End Near 0.7950!It looks like the corrective wave (2) of the bullish minor degree has ended at 0.7434 with an open complex w,x,y minute pattern. The recent upside looks impulsive (awe could expect a more complex pattern with a flat likely to appear) and fresh highs could be expected once a valid breakout of minor 1 top is seen.
In the short-term, we could receive a deeper pullback before continuing higher to take out minute wave ( iii ) near 0.77 round level. Or, we could get there first and then receive a pullback for a retest of minor 1 top.
Minor wave 3 is expected to end near 0.7764 and as part of the intermediate impulse to the upside, minor 5 has a medium-term potential near 1.79.
Intermediate wave 5 is part of the A,B,C primary correction (A: 0.7958, B: 0.7222)
This opportunity would be invalidated below 0.7350. A break below 0.7430 would be an early sign of invalidation!
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
Top Reached and Rejected, Selling OpportunityPrevious top from early January(double topped back then) was nearly reached this week, but rejected. Fib/support levels show a short term low upcoming at .786 of the fib levels on the right of this chart, if that is hit it looks like further downward progress to the 0.382 level of the longer term run up that began in May.
Weekly Chart(not shown here) has candles reaching up toward this high from January but falling short.
Large selling volume this week helped to reject the top. Expect bear market for upcoming 1-3 weeks.
CHFJPY (H4): Retracement (Long) Likely to HappenCHFJPY
Timeframe: H4
Direction: Long
Confluences for Trade:
- Strong Bullish Engulfing Candle
- Break of Trendline in H4 (Established since Sept 2018)
- Hovering around 50% Fibo levels of previous uptrend move
- Narrowing gap between 8EMA and 50EMA
- SL Levels is placed below the M/T Trendline (since May 2018) and 61% Fibo levels of previous uptrend move
However Stochastic is showing H4 is around Overbought conditions, you may want to consider to wait till the Stochastics re-balances itself before entering the trade.
Suggested Trade:
Entry @ Anywhere around Area of Interest (113.00 - 113.80)
SL: 112.17
TP: 115.95
RR: Approximately 2.21 (Depending on Entry Levels)
May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D
*This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and we are not responsible for any losses derived from it.
EURCAD Sell h4 Retest of daily significant resistance level, bears about to take control of this pair , price moved to make a confluence touch on the resistance level of the descending trendline, expect price to attempt to take out the Low of last week .
Immediate short at the current price of the high of this week. Short term sell to medium term , TP at support below of last week's low.