USD/CHF LONG POSITION FED MEETING NEWS Good Morning everyone,
As we expect the dollar is gaining some power during this weeks, and the previous meetings is being bullish for the usd currencies.
In that matter we expect the same to happen today at 01:00pm.
this trade is expected 1/1 risk reward.
That's my personal opinion for today
Meeting
EURUSD BULLISH SEEKING CHANNEL OR BRAKEOANDA:EURUSD The hot topic on the markets, will it keep the trend reversal by seeking a channel or break the resistances at 1.0350 or check the par once again around EU Interest, purely chart reading suggests that channel, once again the traders are those who drive the boat and may change direction at any time regardless of the wind. December is coming, keep in mind the US meets a day before the EU, on the 14th and the 15th Dec, there will be many opportunities for speculations there.
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NIFTY 50 ANALYSIS ON RBI'S MEETINGmarkets fell, indicators supporting!!
rising wedge pattern is formed.
RSI will react in the same way as there previous ones are.
markets will reach its bottom point of its crucial trend line support, and will start moving up the next week. this week's was a crucial point, as FED'S meeting led to fall in our markets, and a further fall due to RBI's announcement. markets will be correcting till the decision comes, hence this two days, markets will reach 16520.
FOMC 21.9.2022. Just an idea.In all of 2022. market rallied after FOMC meeting just to go lower shortly afterwards. Only on 16th march it went lower straight away.
My base case is market just go lower fading the summer rally move all the way and finding support somewhere around 269 (PT 1, june 22. low) or 237 (PT2, precovid high).
Second case is retest of vopc, roughly 312. and than lower.
Third case brakes through 312 and retest it, that would be bullish case for me.
All thoughts and ideas are welcome.
Happy hunting.
BTC Vs FED FOMC Meeting"Elon Musk Buy Twitter" news work as fuel for Market. DOW Bounce near 600 point and bitcoin back to $40000+ after announcement.
$42500 is major resistance for bitcoin and Market cant ignore FED FOMC meeting on May 4. Bears will like to play short near $42500. Daily closing above $42500 will create fresh momentum in market.
If BTC hold $37k support till May 4 than it will be very good for Bitcoin market.
BTC VS FED FOMC Meeting: FED FOMC meeting turn into one of the main trigger for Bitcoin. We can see in chart that BTC price slip before Fed Meeting, before going up again after. Same we saw from last 4 days. Twitter news has been pumping market but its good to eye on daily closing, But be ready for volatility, Market can give more opportunity before FED FOMC meeting
Downtrend IN EURThe euro is in a downtrend that hit a two-day low on Monday.
There is an FOMC meeting tonight and we will probably have a dollar pump after this meeting.
We also had a dump, after which a rectangular pattern was formed, and since the long-term trend is downward, the probability of reaching the bottom of the channel is high.
GHIV Special Stockholder meeting on Jan. 20th.Some big news is coming on Jan. 20th as Gores Holding IV is holding a special Stockholder meeting following the announced merger with UWM (United Wholesale Mortgage, the largest wholesale mortgage lender in the US). Stay tuned for this meeting and watch it MOON.
Stay Frosty,
Geocoin
RBA Monetary Policy Meeting. AUDNZD bear domination?!RBA is less likely to provide further support to the Aussie dollar and expect any AUD weakness to be mostly channeled through a lower AUD/NZD, where the monetary policy differential may be more evident (given a neutral RBNZ). Market participants in this cross-currency seem to price in ahead of the meeting where we can see a strong bearish pressure for now in the price action for this cross. We have a key level 1.03753 which acted as support in the past and this level has good weigh as it lines up with weekly pivot point s3 and descending channel lower trendline (acts as supports). Break lower through this key level with good bearish momentum should signal us price can dive more near the major support 1.03131 or even further depending on the outlook reaction after the meeting. If RBA ends up neutral or surprise hike bearish may lose its momentum strength.
CADJPY Not an overall reversal but prolly retracement?BOC coming near and most of the currencies having this comdoll as a base or counter losing against the other side currency example FOREXCOM:USDCAD , it all give us some hint that market participant was dumbing loonie before its meeting. It may have retracement upward but overall deciding for now the overall market reversal might have fewer chances before the BOC meeting which market participants aren't feeling good about seeing the market sentiment on this cross pair we can say. We can have an eye on this pair this new week and examine how price action behaves. Technically those red and green lines on the chart are areas of interest which serve as support and resistance and those level hold some weigh as the price will respect them. Talking with weekly pivot point man! price was too savage last Friday which breached through weekly s3 of the pivot. Price taking breath for now @ 80.68 and it seems more then half % has already been priced in before the BOC meeting by market players at this point which let me think at least once that 80.68 level might hold price for a while and short retracement upward around 30.20% Fibonacci retracement level or even 50% might be a scenario depending on how market players sentiment changes between the time horizon of current to actual meeting release of BOC. Are you a range-bound market environment lover? Honestly, did you care about the light blue rectangle box yet? hehe.. :) If price repeats or respect this market environment man it will add some sugar on this retracement plan! Break lower with strong bearish momentum from 80.68 or 80.079 should signal us weak comdoll and further continuation lower of price ignoring the retracement probabilities.
EurUsd price broke again the resistanceEUR/USD price broke again the resistance, we recommend a long entrance with a target of 1,133 / 1,138 with timing not exceeding 2-3 days. Then, once there is a rejection with daily confirmation, reposition short in the short period (a few weeks) with the target area between the 1.10 and the 1.08.. It is returning to the side channel that has been stalling since October. This channel is formed by the static resistance at 1.151 and the support just mentioned (1.118). The main trend of this pair has been set down for more than a year. Due to the opposing monetary policies adopted by the respective central banks. In this period, in the short/very short term, after the slowdown declared by the Fed, that will leave the rates unchanged even in tomorrow's session, a slight weakness is expected from the US dollar against the other majors.
An upward breach of 1.133 will bring the price to test the subsequent static resistance, set at 1.138. A rejection by that level will bring the price back below 1.12 sanctioning a continuation of the main downtrend that will bring EURUSD to touch the 1.10 psychological support very soon.
To summarize
EUR/USD price broke again the resistance, we recommend a long entrance with a target of 1,133 / 1,138 with timing not exceeding 2-3 days. Then, once there is a rejection with daily confirmation, reposition short in the short period (a few weeks) with the target area between the 1.10 and the 1.08.
Possible Short opportunity - riskyThe UK Brent seem to have met some resistance from both a horizontal resistance and resistance from downward channel.
T here is a OPEC meeting 25th May to see if they should extent the production cut 9 more months for its members. You should not trade before this meeting , but rather see the development after the meeting.
Bullish sentiments:
- The members + Russia are all positive to the cut and I expect little to no resistance on this agreement. This will hopefully result reduction in oilstock and push the price higher.
- OPEC have said that they will do whatever it takes to get the oil prices back up.
Are these points enough?
Bearish points/risk:
- US is not part of OPEC and have increased their production. This have resulted in a counter to the OPEC agreement and we have not seen the reduction in oilstocks as many of us expected.
- Even with the initial OPEC agreement on this production cut, the oil price have not seen the gain most of us expected. It have still been on the 45-55 range. What is so much different this time?
So, if they are able to extend the deal, this might not trigger any big movements to the upside. Might be a little move for a day. But I would expect it to revert and stabalize shortly. If there would be some kind of "hiccup" we could see more risk on the downside. Combined with the technical signals, this might be a good SHORT, but trade with caution on this one!
My Idea on FOMC USD rate hike decision for EURUSDSo the time is coming, this is the last chance for the FED to demonstrate that the US economy is strong enough to withhold an interest rate hike and continue to show improvements.
there are many political and idealogical factors behind this decision and this is a worry to investors and speculators that think this rate hike should not go ahead and that is only happening because of NON economical influences.
lets see first, prior to the 16th meeting >>>
the pair could well continue its bullish momentum, revisiting the high of 1090 and even penetrating all the way to the 1200 area where the down trend of this year has been established.
also prior to the result and news release, some big brokers and desks will take positions to ensure they have enough liquidity to provide dollars to those who will buy it, so this will produce a few big EUR orders.
Take a look at the CME options expiring at the NY cut, this will give you a good idea of what level is the market expecting.
WITHIN THE MEETING/DECISION
the key word here is VOLATILITY, while traders and brokers decide whether the statement is hawkish or dovish, you will probably see some spikes up and down as they hedge/cover and close their positions currently open.
no one will open brand new positions during the event unless is to cover their large contracts to prevent losses
here is when you need to be careful with your SL, if this is hit during the event then stay out until you can clearly asses the decision. bear in mind that experts analysts have great tools that electronically analyse the statement and is capable to identify different words and highlight this for the banks so their capacity of response is going to be pretty big nevertheless unlimited.
AFTER THE DECISION
here is when new positions will be opened, as liquidity returns and new players enter the market, big banks will look to find out how the decision affects their long term outcome and new positions could be undertaken over the next few days.
looking at where the initial spike ends up you can get an idea if the outcome was scenario A B or C but still.. this may not probe to be the case and the pair may reverses within a few days of the initial euphoric move.
SO IN SUMMARy
- Prior to the event, keep an eye on positioning
- during the event, volatility could kill your positions, ensure you are covered
- after the event, reach the same conclusion than the big traders is essential, load yourself up with good news provider
- if you are not sure, or you have no capital, or you feel insecure about trading in historic events, please do not trade this event.
HAPPY TRADING
HAPPY XMAS!
any questions, please ask below :)