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Megaphone

The Spy Who Shagged MeHey guys, I hope everyone had an awesome weekend. Let's get right into today's analysis: US Futures managed to stage a notable rebound on Sunday night, after an ugly close on Friday when the bulls lost key weekly, and monthly supports. We were up about half a percent into the US cash open, but have since erased most of the overnight gains. Circling the MSM today are interesting headlines about how the Trump administration is distancing themselves from Syndey Powell, who is apparently getting ready to drop a "bombshell" voter fraud lawsuit against Georgia as early as this week. I suspect Trump and his team are trying to create the illusion of distance here so the case seems as independent and unbiased as possible. I wish them luck with that. We're also seeing headlines about more "Vaccine Hopes," which just puts a smile on my face everytime I see this price action narrative. Wash, rince, repeat... In a recent report, JP Morgan analysts, off the back of Goldman's recent report on month-end rebalancing (of over $35 Billion), say they're anticipating an even larger and more vicious sell-off into year end. They're expecting a correction, which they say would position the FED for further easing/dollar debasement into 2021. Total forced selling by year-end is estimated to be over $300 Billion according to the report. Imo this could bring the entire house (of cards) down, with market depth currently the worst it's been since the March crash. SPY is looking particularly fragile today as the bears continue to defend the long-term (megaphone) trendline. But, we all know the bulls are not going anywhere. I suspect if we successfully fill any of the gaps above this week, it will be quickly met with relentless miracle bids. That's not necessarily a bad thing, as the increased volatility could set us up for some fruitful short-term trading opportunities heading into December. I'm watching the 355 level as daily support, as I'm seeing us skipping on top of an ascending triangle formed from the Nov 5th high. If we lose this level, we may see a sharp sell-off down to the 350 area, where the first gap is sitting, along with the top of the previous triangle, and the 21 day EMA at 351.07. That's pretty heavy support, but it's not exactly a stone's throw away from current levels... Stay tuned for live updates throughout the day, and sincere thanks for your viewership guys, I appreciate all the support. If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
14
Viscious Wall Street Bulls on the MEGAPHONE!So, Corona is on everyone's lips but how long will it keep the raging bulls from taking charge? Any signs of, mitigation measures against the pandemic will provide massive reprieve for the fallen giant DOW Jones! It may as well have begun.... The image above shows a classic MEGAPHONE in a bullish trend, We have just jumped out of the bear trap, cannot say it's over, but when it does, it will be viscious, the momentum will obliterate the alarms. I'll be looking to cut my Short positions and prepared to begin the "Long" return home :) Will you Join me?
OANDA:US30USDLong
by SleekPips
3
But, This Ship Can't Sink?In a move that's shocking both Wall Street and Main Street, Treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin has officially put the FED on notice in a bid to end the FED's Emergency Lending Programs by year end. Headlines from popular economists are circling the MSM, and some are saying this is the equivalent of removing the lifeboats from the Titanic. First of all, that's hilarious, considering there were never enough lifeboats to begin with, (because the ship was seen as unsinkable), at least not for the poor passengers. But, the point here is this; the Trump administration is signaling they're not going to hand the Biden administration a basket of goods as a farewell gift. Unfortunately, what this translates to, inter alia, is the FED won't be able to buy their favorite Mega-Tech bonds, essentially putting a direct stop to the billions flowing into the heavy weight side of the stock market through this particular program, and through low interest rate debt funded buy-backs. In addition, ending this program also put's credit markets at risk of a crash for a number of reasons. Most importantly, we've never had such a high percentage of BBB- (lowest level of investment grade) rated bonds in history. If any of these bonds drop even a single rating level, many, many, trillions of dollars sitting in pension funds, would be breaking their mandates, which is to stick to investment grade paper. So in other words, extremely large funds may start dumping BBB- bonds in the near term. Yields would spike alongside inflation, leading the FED toward a single conclusion, which is to raise rates, and discourage borrowing. As ZeroHedge so elequently put it, "Let's hope America's Zombie companies have learned how to swim after all those years of treading water." Finally, as the legendary MC Hammer would put it, "Uh oh." SPY Analysis: After breaking through key supports earlier in the week, the bulls have a difficult job on their hands today. Although we're sitting right below the megaphone and ascending channel trendlines (converging around 357), sentiment is turned notably negative today, with Giuliani and Sidney powell's update on the Trump administration's lawsuits last night, along with the news from the Treasury. We're seeing an unusual risk-off mood heading into the weekend. Lastly, each time we've approached the megaphone trendline (357) on the weekly, absent a break above, we've gotten a strong rejection. On the monthly, if the bulls are unable to keep us above 357, we could revisit 320 again very soon. My exit is 300... As always guys, stay tuned for live updates throughout the day, and thank you for your time, I appreciate all the support. If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
20
When The Bulls Became BearsHey guys, so for the moment the bears continue to dictate price action after yesterday's minor sell-off, as overnight losses in futures extended into the US cash open. After recapturing 2 key trendlines from the bulls yesterday (ascending channel, and megaphone), the bears are taking full advantage of the downward momentum, and we're now racing toward the top of the triangle around 349. There's very little support above 350, and with the 21 day EMA sitting around 349.80, and volume steadily increasing behind price action, this is the next logical interim support imo. With the rug now pulled from beneath the bulls, let's see what the bears have in store as we approach the end of the week. Vaccine headlines are circling the MSM again today, but this new narrative is seemingly losing it's ability to impact (distort) sentiment. Stay tuned for live updates today, and thank you for your support! If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
6
The Marathon ContinuesUS Futures traded marginally higher this morning, off the back of more media narratives of a "95% effective COVID-19 Vaccine". Prior to this most recent, and in all honesty, comedic narrative, it was "stimulus optimism" that drove (global) markets higher. But, I guess investors are not worried about that anymore. What happened to China Trade Deal optimism? I guess that doesn't matter anymore, either. It seems the FED and the government clearly take the public for fools, and maybe for good reason. The real economy is dead my friends, and for years it's been propped up by ZIRP, NIRP, bedtime stories of optimism, never-ending dollar debasement in the form of QE/"Liquidity", and exponential fiscal debt. Stock buy-back's continue to portray earnings growth, when all these companies are doing is perpetually lowering the number of shares outstanding to show earnings growth. Actual revenue growth has averaged just 4% over the past business cycle, vs earnings, which have grown somewhere in the realm of 30%. This is a magic trick, like every other aspect of the stock market. The stock market, as we see it now, has next to nothing to do with stocks, which is quite sad. But, let's see how long this lasts before everyone realizes that bedtime stories, and magic tricks, can't elevate stocks forever... Good luck out there today guys! If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
8
Stocks Sink As Lockdowns LoomHey guys, so I took a few days off because my wife and I moved. I hope everyone had a great weekend, and an even better thanksgiving! Let's get right into today's analysis. Global markets are mixed this morning, with US Futures trading slightly off yesterday's high's. Although we're seeing heightened optimism off the back of successful vaccine trial results from Moderna, and Pfizer's BioNTech, the interim rally lost steam amid growing concerns over a second wave of lockdowns. California, and New Jersey, among others, imposed new restrictions, and this is being rolled out pre-winter. Imo it's only going to get worse, and could be the scapegoat, yet again, to explain why the market crashes/corrects. Updates: - Gold is up marginally and sitting around 1889. - Yields were slightly off their high's with the 10Y sitting at .89. - Retail sales came in weaker than expected with 0.3% growth vs 0.5% exp. (prior 1.6%). - Industrial production came in at 1.1% vs expectations of 0.9%. - Capacity utilization came in at 72.8% vs 72.3% exp (prior 72%). - The Dollar (DXY) continues to get hammered, and is now sitting at 92.35, after a recent, but albeit brief, surge to 94.30. - The Vix is seeing some strength today and is trading off the recent low's. We're testing the 50 period MA on the hourly (23.80), but we have a long way to go to recapture the 100 day MA at 26.80. How much more of a beating can the Vix possibly take in the name of fundamentally suppressing price discovery? Well, I read recently that retail investors (dumb money), have out earned Hedge Funds (smart money), 10 to 1 this year. I think that sums up the current state of the market. - Bitcoin rose above 17,000 as the dollar debasement parade continues. SPY Analysis: - The Bulls successfully broke us above both the ascending channel resistance (a key trendline formed from the March crash, now sitting around 359), and the multi-year, megaphone resistance line at 358. I can't stress how close we are to a major move here, given the importance of these trendlines, alongside current stock valuations, and economic weakness. You guys need to decide if you think this massive move is going to be to the upside, or to the downside. You know where I stand on this. - If the bulls are able to hold on to the megaphone line on the weekly, it would mark the first weekly close above this trendline since we broke below in July 2011, over 9 years ago. I think it goes without saying that if there are any bears left, they'll be showing up this week to defend these long-term resistance levels. Major supports to watch below the megaphone resistance are 350 (the top of the triangle), the 21 day EMA (347.42), and the 50 day MA at 340. - The daily RSI is now sitting at 67, and the hourly is at 68, showing we're approaching overbought levels over multiple timeframes. (Weekly RSI is at 60). Thanks for your time today guys, and good luck out there! If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
4
GBP/USD 🇬🇧 🇺🇸 to fall!We see that the GBP/USD 🇬🇧 🇺🇸 spiked earlier than I expected. As the RSI and Stochastic overboughts suggest the pair is expected the fall as it is going to be rejected by the 1.32731 level for the 4th time. The 100 pips short opportunity down to the Support of 1.31664 looks like a reasonable setup for now. If you like the idea PLEASE don't forget to hit the LIKE 👍👍👍button Also share your thoughts and charts here in the comment ⌨️ section.
Short
by Alexander_Harford
5
Welcome To The JungleHey guys! So, let's get right into it with today's analysis. US Futures are trading slightly off the week's highs, as Asian and European markets slipped around 1-2 percent overnight. Jobless claims came in better than expected with 709k new claims and approx. 6.8MM continuing claims, while pandemic emergency claims continue to spike. Consumer price growth slowed notably, with CPI and core CPI coming in at zero percent. YOY CPI is now at 1.2 percent. The 10Y yield lost some steam overnight, and is sitting just off it's recent high around .93. Morgan Stanley recently said they expect a sharp rise in yields, imminently, and if you look at the 10Y chart, it's pretty obvious why they've come to that conclusion. The 10Y yield is up around 80% from the beginning of August. - SPY key supports to watch today are 349.93 (which is the 50 period MA on the hourly), 344.58 (the second gap to fill from the Nov 4th close), and 339.62 (the 50 day MA). - The daily RSI is sitting at 64.78 which is showing we're getting close to those overbought levels. We just about hit an RSI of 80 on the hourly on Monday (79.97). - Vix is back to a 24 handle after some weakness yesterday, and saw it's lowest hourly RSI print in two and a half years this week. Needless to say, risk protection is currently heavily oversold on the hourly. - DXY is sitting around 93 at the moment, and is just begging for a shift in sentiment before it's epic return as King Dollar. Best of luck out there today guys! If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. PS No live updates today unfortunately, I'm in the middle of moving so I have a lot on my plate, unfortunately. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
8
10 Things I Hate About You (Comedy)Dear Mr. Market, 1. I hate the way you always seem to rise, even when you're supposed to fall. 2. I hate the way you make me scratch my head, when price action makes no sense at all. 3. I hate the way you brand me a contrarian, even though we all know the real economy is dead. 4. I hate the fact that you only seem to move, off of sentiment from the FED. 5. I hate that you give me road rage, when pushing my shopping cart at the grocery store. 6. I hate that you no longer care about fundamentals, and now you've made technicals a bore. 7. I hate the way that price action now controls sentiment, and not the other way around. 8. I hate when you squeeze me out of my short, even when support clearly hasn't been found. 9. I hate your stubborn attitude, when all the facts that are stacked against you stand tall. 10. But, most of all, Mr. Market, I hate the way I don't hate you, not even a little, not even at all. Yours Truly, The Bears
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
28
Don't Look DownThe global market rally/gap fiesta that played out over the past week or so, came to an abrupt end yesterday as we approached the close. SPY almost filled the massive overnight gap, and ended the day back below the long-term (multi-year) resistance line around 355, after achieving new all-time high's. Looking at the monthly SPY chart after yesterday's rejection, traders might be starting to get that, "don't look down" feeling. I think it goes without saying that trading with caution at these levels is prudent. As I've mentioned in previous posts, technical analysis is becoming increasingly difficult in a market that moves wildly off of immaterial headlines, and pure assumptions. But, we will continue to use technical analysis (and fundamental analysis), among others, to assess the state of the market, and future price action. The top of the megaphone pattern is the final line in the sand for the bears. If they fail to keep us below this level, and we see a breakout above on the monthly, we would need to reassess our outlook, and bearish thesis. However, for the moment, the technicals are still holding up, and the bears have a strong case. Stay tuned for live updates throughout the day, and best of luck out there! If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
6
EUR/NZD 🇪🇺🇳🇿 to fall and bounce!EUR/NZD 🇪🇺🇳🇿 has formed the broadening Wedge pattern. The price has recently been rejected by the bottom upward trendline , however as the death cross suggesting the price can possible test the area again after which , according to the ROC divergence and stochastic crossover the price is going to rice up to the test of 1.76985 lvl with the possible further growth. If you like the idea PLEASE don't forget to hit the LIKE 👍👍👍button Also share your thoughts and charts here in the comment ⌨️ section.
Short
by Alexander_Harford
5
$SAP #SAP ... all hands on deck! Support area is 89 -79 USDHi and welcome to my analysis on SAP (NYSE, USD). Yes, we had some news from the software provider that attracted sellers. Trading in Germany on XETRA is closed and no prisoners were taken... In my first chart you can see a broadening top in the stock. SAP was not able to activate this formation to the upside in September...the upper trendline produced heavy resistance and forced a minor reversal... In combination with a bearish engulfing pattern as per end of September... ...and last week's break below the KAMA21 the stage was set for a downturn... The lower megaphone supportline is at 89 USD...this is a target if the bears remain in control. POC (2016 to date) is showing the point of control around 79 USD. Would be nice if you support me with a thumbs up and follow me... Best, Tom Jansen Chief Investor-Guard © Copyright TA Investor-Guard 2020. Charts powered by TradingView. All rights reserved. The information provided here is of a general nature and not legal, tax or investment advice.
NYSE:SAP
by investor-guard
LendingTree: Bullish Technicals and Fundamentals ExplainedIn this analysis, I'll be providing an in-depth analysis on LendingTree, as well as an explanation on megaphone patterns and its bullish upside. What is LendingTree Inc.? Lendingtree (TREE) is a company that offers a platform for borrowers and multiple lenders, offering the opportunity for its users to find the best possible deal on their loans. Business Model - Users of TREE gain access to multiple loan offers, and TREE’s clients gain the benefit of a cost-efficient customer acquisition. - Essentially, LendingTree is a platform where people shop for money. - Lendingtree works with major banks such as Citibank, Wells Fargo, as well as mortgage brokers, p2p specialty finance institutions, and small businesses. - Their clients’ pain point is that borrower acquisition is a key constraint to growth. - They offer a personalized platform called My LendingTree in which users can track their financial credit and performance - Their cumulative user growth has been increasing at an exponential rate - One fact many people misunderstand is that LendingTree does not take a markup fee. - Their revenue comes from the payments made by lenders (their institutional clients), who pay to join the LendingTree marketplace. - TREE also gets paid by their clients when its users sign up for their loans or services. - While mortgage loans are their main focus, they are expanding into areas of: personal loans, auto loans, business loans, student loans, credit cards, saving accounts, and home equity loans. Financials - LendingTree’s revenue has tripled to $1.1 Billion by the end of 2019, almost triple the revenue of 2016. - They continue to demonstrate tremendous growth as consumers shop for mortgages over time - While their revenue was dominantly mortgage based, they have managed to diversify into generating revenue from non-mortgage related loans and services. - However, their operating expenses have also significantly increased due to huge marketing budgets, and their operating income is not as exponential as their revenue growth - Their quarterly revenue changes have been showing inconsistencies, and reported negative earnings for 2020 Q2. - However, the company demonstrates steady and strong free cash flow Technical Analysis - We can take a look at TREE’s weekly chart for long term insight - To begin with, the chart is currently trading within a textbook megaphone pattern - A megaphone pattern can be a continuation or reversal pattern depending on how prices react near the resistance - This pattern demonstrates 5 distinct swings, each getting larger than the previous one, - As demonstrated above, we are currently in the middle of the fifth swing - We can see that a reverse head and shoulders pattern has been forming since the third swing. - We have temporarily broken out of the descending trend line resistance (marked by the dotted blue line), and forming what seems to be the right shoulder - The formation of the right shoulder can also be seen as a bullish flag pattern, where prices are consolidating before a breakout - On the short term, we are consolidating below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance. - We have tested the pivot line support, as prices look to break out - Even if we see a rejection at the trend line resistance on the fifth swing, there is a 60% upside potential based on the megaphone pattern structure Conclusion With the Fed having said that interest rates will remain at near zero, and considering the fact that the US housing market is still in an uptrend, given that we see more recovery in the economy, we could anticipate huge growth for LendingTree as more users seek to get loans. The technicals demonstrated on LendingTree’s chart are also extremely bullish, making this stock a solid mid-term investment. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
NASDAQ:TREEEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
2
ZM hits roofIn this chart we see a short term, broadening pattern called the megaphone. I have found that this pattern is usually accurate in predicting breakouts/ price movements. As shown in this hourly chart, ZM has been run along the top trend line , briefly crossed above, and is now headed back to support. If I were looking for a short term trade I would wait to see if the price is going to break the black line (today’s low and also a price level that saw some price support recently), at the 457 area. If it breaks below, I would take out a short term call with my first target being the second-from-the-bottom black line, the 449 area, and the next is in the 442 area. If i believed I had a high tolerance for unrealized losses, I would set a stop loss far below my buying price (up to 40 percent of buying price for options.) on the other hand, if I had a very small tolerance or unrealized losses, I would set my stop loss at about 5 percent below my buying price, enough to maybe see a profit but not enough to where a short term sell off would force me to sell prematurely. Feel free to leave comments and questions.
NASDAQ:ZMShort
by Isaiahgr3
4