US 30 Bear Trend: Megaphone Tar Double Bottom Crash Landing SiteUS Equities in downtrend off ATH from July. Price action strongly mimics last year's selloff behavior. Pull chart right to see the 2018 Megaphone. Targets in chart are determined by TL defined by these Megaphones. Price labels are estimates and actual prices of course will vary; past performance is no guarantee of future results!
2019 Megaphone is Bigger and the subsequent Great Drop will be deeper. Currently trades near top of retracement in 'h' pattern which Time Cycles (green ribbon) suggest should complete on or about 14 August, coinciding with Full Moon on 15 August. We got a 62% retrace in NQ and ~50% in Dow. Expect to rollover at or near 26500, has traded to 26400 so far, maybe already done; or might have one push left, exact price is chance.
Near-term bottom of the 'h' right leg should end up at or around 24750 +/- 80 pips on or about Monday, 26 August by Time Cycle, coinciding closely with New Moon on August 30, when price should rally a final time. Exact price is chance. Expect a monster relief rally there until 14-17 September, coinciding with Full Moon on 14 Sep, to around 25800 +/- 200 pips; these rallies carry index above the 'h' hump, should get to the upper TL on megaphone. Again, exact price is due entirely to chance. Apres ca; la deluge.
The Big Sell may commence on or about 17 September (Constitution Day, and the 167th anniversary of the Antietam battle, AKA Sharpsburg, after the Full Moon.
www.history.com
Selling may be expected to last for six weeks in an unrelenting downdraft, culminating in a panic crash to a lower low than 24 Dec, and forming a giant annual 'h' terminating on or about Tuesday, 29 October, coinciding with the New Moon on Monday, 28 October.
NB: IMO it is not coincidental that 28/29 October 1929 were also on a Monday and Tuesday; eerily the waning Moon cycle ended on 30 October 1929, with New Moon on 31st.
www.calendar-12.com
"Black Magic!" you say; but biologically, these patterns are borne out time and again by history; the madness of crowds and human mood is definitely influenced by Circadian Rythym, and closely tied to Lunar Phasing. Gravity waves have been detected on the floor of the NYSE, LOL!
The negative impulse should form a true Elliott wave 5-wave impulsive pattern with three major selling waves and two weak countertrend waves. I did not show these in chart for clarity, as we approach the event future ideas I will publish these waves as they unfold.
As always, this is just another addle-pated, crackpot idea and clearly does not constitute any sort of investment advice.
That being said; I must observe I accurately predicted the May ABC correction and subsequent ATH, see published links below.
We are currently in Distribution Phase of the final leg of a monster bull market, so please: Trade at your own risk; GLTA!
Megaphone
Softbank: Trading at top of megaphone patternSoftbank has come under increasing scrutiny for its eye-popping investments and corporate governance practices. Investing almost a billion into a company embroiled in a massive accounting fraud scandal (Wirecard) is not what I would characterize as best use of shareholders' capital.
Starting from the 2009 trough, the stock has completed 5-waves up with the price action over the last 5 years culminating in a bearish megaphone pattern.
CO2 GRO Technical Analysis: 100% return over next 1-2 months Short term we are due for at least a small bounce since we finally have some signs of buying volume increasing. Note the bull volume spikes end of this week as well as back in June before the last uptrend started.
Daily MACD is just about to cross which when combined with stochastics rising out of oversoold indicate a likely uptrend beginning.
$0.15 was a major support and now is acting as significant resistance, a break above this level would 100% confirm the continuation of the megaphone chart pattern up to at least $0.30.
Easy 100% return over next 1-2 months even without any major catalysts, but this company has first revenue coming any week now as well as new research/trials being completed monthly. 8 Million market cap and projected revenue stream for 2019 is $10 million.
Gold megaphone H4Hi pros!
Waiting for a break of the megaphone to look for positionning
target if long :1250 because it's a trendline
target if short : 1160 because it's the lower low
on both target we will take half or all and see what happen to see for an other positioning (long or short)
Have a nice week!
Cheers
BTCUSD Broadening BottomThought I'd finally share my thoughts on Bitcoin. It looks like a megaphone pattern is forming, specifically a broadening bottom.
These patterns are explained in detail by Bulkowski for those that are interested: thepatternsite.com
Suffices to say they are not reliable bottoms at all. They can break up, but they also demonstrate a high failure rate.
A good indication of a break above resistance is the partial decline, where the price retests resistance without going first to support.
Likewise a good indication of break below support is the partial rise, which should be self-explanatory.
As Bulkowski says, these are risky zones to enter. They are characterised by increasing volatility, which make them optimal for scalping and short swing trades, but for investors their outcome is not easy to predict.
CL breakdown continues powerfully, big Daily levels in sight nowUpdate to a previous post I made about the CL level breakdown.
Bias remains short until proven otherwise. Flat, no clear entries for me until tomorrow morning when we look at premarket price action and range.
Yesterday's trade posted to twitter. 11.25R despite mismanaging the hell out of it.
It's imperative you learn to take wholesale entries, understand context, and know when to pull the trigger and when to HAPPILY stand aside.
Patience is The KEY! But BITCOIN is Facing The WALL of Decision!Dear Friends :)
No speech. No intros, no long stories, let's just jump in...
Once again we are taking a look at our favorite coin. And once again we will take a look at the 4h BTC/USD Chart. We will never be tired of Bitcoin. And after a long day of sideways movement, Bitcoin has to make a decision very soon - and we are in for a treat! We will soon see firework...
As you can see we are in a descending broadening wedge (you might also argue that we are in a normal descending wedge in small dotted lines). Please pay attention to my red circles, and notice how we after some up-sideways movements has bumped into the wedge wall, and how we hereafter fell in a steep down trend. So the question is, will it happen again?
We have a lot of bullish signs in fact. We are in an ascending triangle in purple. We have had Regular Bullish Divergence on MACD and on RSI, also a bullish MACD-cross. All that in isolation is telling us, that this downtrend could be over, and we will go into an uptrend now.
But, but.. We are squeezed into an ugly zone of confluence support and resistance everywhere! This is not a place to be in if you suffer from claustrophobia. We have all the EMAs from 20 to 200 just above our head. We have 8,2k support under us. We have 8,000 USD which also acts as huge support due to it is a even number and also is P.O.C. (Point of control - most trades are generated at this price point ever).
So here is D4rkEnergY's advice for you. Believe it or not - I care about you. So this is still a no trading zone so far. Let other people gamble with their money! Go to a casino play some Roulette instead. We are aware of the market conditions, and when there are no reason to take unnecessary risks! THAT is how we become a better trader.
When that is said: I believe we will very soon - when we get closer to The Wall of Decision - that we will see a SPIKE in one of the directions. I also believe it is most likely, that we will go in an uptrend at around 7,800 USD or maybe have we already bottomed now!
I promise to keep you updated!! While I'm writing this, I can see the bears are trying to escape the triangle cage......
D4 Loves You <3
Aaand as always. I would appreciate a big LIKE if you enjoyed my analysis. Thanks in advance, my friends :)
DXY bullish possibility on megaphone pattern supportTaking a looking at DXY, have price coming down to support.
Bearish case is that the most recent move up has sputtered out and had less momentum. The downside potential here is very big if price breaks down from the megaphone pattern.
However, looking on a daily, price is well outside lower Bollinger band at the same time that price will arrive on support of megaphone pattern. For my trading strategy, I like to see as many good cases occur simultaneously. In this case we have three.
price is converging to support of megaphone pattern
price is converging to support of daily channel
price is already below lower bollinger band and will continue even further out
Those three bullish cases together spell for me that a major rip up will occur before any real down move takes place on the DXY. See this chart for a close up view.
We might have found the bottom on BTCHaving trouble posting charts all day. This is what I wanted to post this morning.
Well, yesterday was quite crazy and we even broke the green support zone. I got to admit I didn't expect that. As of now we are still in a very steep downtrend channel, but hopefully we found the bottom here. Bull and bears are still fighting this one out. If we take a look at the chart we can see we bounced around a point we bounced earlier on. We should break out of this downtrend channel to confirm this was the bottom for now. If that happens I do expect we will reach the 8800/9100 zone in a few days. This is quite a strong resitance zone, but we will come to that later.
If we get lower I hope we will bounce again around 7600/7700. This is the bottom of the log trend line since 26-07-2017. This is a very important point for the bulls/whales around us as can be seen on the following chart. I already bought some at the current bottom and will try to add more if it gets this low again with a stop loss below 7.5k.
Below that we could find some support at 7500 (based on the normal uptrend line in the published chart) but my guess is we bounce at 7/7.2k. If we break that we might retest the last log trend line at 6.4/6.5k (on the image chart above). My guess is we are going to retest the 6k if the bears break the 7.5k lvl because of the news about the death cross etc. On the published chart there's also a bearish megaphone which could come in play then. We could even go lower, but that's a concern for later. (it hopefully isn't a concern)
SX5E: Potential downside to 3100The SX5E is a much narrower index relative to the Stoxx 600 (check out my earlier post) but you get the same bearish conclusion. The SX5E is constrained by a major downtrend line marked by the 2007 and 2015 market tops, it is building somewhat of a expanding megaphone pattern over the last year and a massive MACD divergence from the price action. The last major down swing in Europe lasted for 1 year and I would imagine this down swing to be no different. This year is turning out to be a real dog.
Stoxx 600 Futures: Megaphone pattern at major resistanceI keep hearing how Europe is a better investment relative to the US but a quick look at the FY1! chart fails to convince me so. The price action is hitting a major resistance marked by market tops in 2007 and 2015, price action is forming a bearish expanding megaphone pattern with MACD divergence. The bear in me is growling to get out.
Silver huge bull setupbroke down from the trend that most would draw and assume a retracement or even bear however, even with a lower break out of the fib channel it will still be within a setup for a megaphone bull break out. Elliott wave analysis of the megaphone happened to be aligned with a 50% retracement of the December run at the end of wave 4 though this wave passes through the 38.2% at the bottom of the fibs channel meaning it might get stopped out short of the full 50% retrace. The end of Wave 5 indicates a decisive moment for longer bull or bear move however, the bull megaphone pattern combined with the longer timescale wave 5 of the channel/pennant also ending within margin of error at the breakout point does lean towards a further break of the much longer timescale pennant putting targets way up to $2500.
DXY possible support on megaphone supportPrice has been range bound for a while forming a megaphone pattern.
Closest area for a retrace up is imminent if it is going to happen and should be quite aggressive price move.
However, price will fall much more if it breaks down out of this megaphone pattern.
Megaphone Top On S&P 500This is the daily chart of SPY that is displaying, in my opinion, a megaphone pattern that will likely resolve to the downside. As evidence of this being a megaphone pattern is the disjointed trend lines as well as the relatively large volumes that correspond to the "higher highs" and "lower lows." My reasoning for expecting this to be a reversal pattern stems from seeing bearish divergence in a number of indicators- the daily chart displays a bearish cross in the True Strength Indicator and the picture that I've included also shows a bearish trend in the TSI.