GOLD to OIL prices the RATIO ANALYSIS ( and meaning )GLD is an ETF tracking gold futures prices across a blend of durations. USO is a similar ETF
for crude oil. I was interested to see what the ratios look like and considering the trading
advise of buy low should I be trading and bartering gold to get oil or viceversa. It is applicable
for be because I am in part a commodities trader and has some activities on the leveraged forex
market.
On the daily chart dressed with a set of two long term anchored VWAP standard deviation lines ,
and some horizontal static resistance lines added, it is obvous to me that the ratio is
currently sitting on the mean VWAP band for support confluent with the lower trendline
of the ascending megaphone pattern which is typically considered demostrative of increasing
volatility. I conclude that if I am a barterer I should trade my oil for gold. If I have gold only
and dry powder I should increase my gold holdings. If I prefer trading oil I should short the
market. This is because the ratio is set up to rise. The means that gold will rise or oil will
fall or some hybrid combination of that. My entry here is when the volatility on the indicator
is green and crosses over the running average.
This is a simple demonstration of how charting with TradingView can help a trader make well-
grounded and profitable trading decisions while lowering risk and making profits more probable.
What do you think of this analysis? What are your agreements or disagreements with it?
Megaphonebottom
FAS bullish leveraged EFT on the financial sectorFAS is one of the Direxion leveraged ETFs focused on the financial sector. As can be seen on
the 15 minute the price action has had increasing volatility in the past month. Increasing
volatility is the hallmark of the megaphone pattern ( a megaphone is a cone like hand held
plastic device used in the old days before bullhorns and other things to amplify voice for
cheers). FAS may have increasing volatility because of federal actions related to rate hikes,
some bank failures and the banking industry adjusting to the " new normal" as higher rates
become increasingly integrated into the financial system while still remaining viligent
regarding a recession and its own set of complications.
To play a megaphone traders will typically set a plan to buy on the lower support trendline
hold for a short period and then sell at the upper resistance trendline. I will open a long
trade on FAS given that it is presently near to support making for a suitable risk to reward
ratio if putting a stop loss immediately below the support trendline.