MELI | Breakout or Bounce?MELI, Breakout or bounce?
Today we will take a look at the Latin American e-commerce platform "Mercado Libre."
Currently, the price is on a relevant level to pay attention to; it's a zone where we have a support level and the cloned trendline of the current correction. As this is a major zone, we can start thinking about the bullish or bearish resolution from here.
IF the price breaks the current zone, the next support level is likely to be the bearish target of the movement, around 970. However, if the price can bounce from here, we can expect a bullish movement towards the descending trendline at 1550.
I want to see the price breaking the descending trendline (yellow) to consider bullish opportunities. EXAMPLE
Thanks for reading! Feel free to add your view and charts in the comments.
MELI
MELI Long Opportunity after the correction Mercadolibre is still correcting although drawing closer to a zone I expect a bounce/reaction.
Since Sept 2020 MELI has been trading inside a ascending channel and printed a fresh ATH in Jan 21.
I anticipate a move down to the bottom of the channel with the following confluences 200EMA,
.618 fib pull from bottom of the channel to the last swing high and the point of control *POC as drawn on the chart.
ALways know your invalidation and use a SL ..Like Share and follow for regular setups and analysis
MercadoLibre $MELI making the reversalI see a lot of bullish signs in NASDAQ:MELI . The MACD is showing a bullish divergence making higher lows, the volatility has decrease with lower and lower volumen and the price is making a "cup & handle" patter; a classic reversal pattern. The only thing that doesn't meet my criteria is that the MAs aren't align the way I like. But, other han that everything looks very good.
With a buy above its resistance in $1,600 you could have a price target near $2,000 for a +24% profit with a 8% risk. That's a fair deal to me.
MELI Analysis showing possible drop.1d Time-Frame Analysis
Lets start with the bigger time-frame, with the bigger picture. NASDAQ:MELI is at level 2 rise, meaning it's missing one more leg to the upside. Then, why short this? Just checked the cycles and I see that MELI does level 1 rise, retrace, level 2 rise, M formation, drop. So instead of level 3 being the peak formation before the reversal, level 2 is the peak of the cycle, and now we are in level 2 with an M formation!
4h Time-Frame Analysis
4h time-frame seems to be a copy paste of 1d time-frame. We can see the cycle to the downside, with only 2 levels and the second level being the peak formation, and now we can see two levels to the upside, with this level 2 being the possible peak formation.
Trade light
Be careful guys, trade light. I'll set my SL at 1918.59, because if price touches that price level, the M formation will be possibly invalidated. Though, I'll wait for the close of the candle to be sure I'm not closing a stop-hunt rise. On the other hand from 1874.80 to our SL we have 2.34%, so playing big would mean a big loss. I will use a 2.5% of my entire account.
Take Profits
Close 30% at 1742.83
Close 35% at 1674
Close 35% at 1583
Happy trading!
The breakout has not happened yet on MELI. This is our plan.Let's take a look at MELI. We can see two relevant aspects on the chart.
a) The price has broken an ascending trendline that has been working since MAY 2020
b) The price has been correcting for the last 4 months almost, and the main structure we can observe is a descending Wedge.
Based on those two items on the daily chart, this is our trading plan.
-We can see a clear resistance zone at 1600 - 1650 that has been tested 3 times. Therefore we don't want to take any setup below that level. So, we will wait for the price to reach it first. IF that happens and we see a move above that level, we want to observe a clear corrective pattern. Here we have defined an ABC structure (what we are looking for is something with similar proportions as the previous corrective structure that happened at the same level we are waiting for this one.
-If all the scenarios are aligned, we plan to take a setup, as you can see on the chart. The two levels above the resistance are the broken ascending trendline (working as a dynamic resistance) and the previous ATH. We think that a setup like this one can provide us with a 1.7 risk-reward ratio and a resolution between 10 to 20 days.
Quick Questions
And what if this never happens? - We don't trade, darling
Ok, smart guy, and what if you wait for all this and suddenly you have a stop loss? - We just take it with 1% of our account with a smile on our faces. Stop losses are a fixed cost of trading; start dealing with that instead of avoiding it.
Why don't you buy it right now? - Because Momentum trading / Swing trading is about waiting for confirmations and creating scenarios with a good risk-reward ratio (which means defining stop levels) so after 40 setups, you can have an edge (or a statistical advantage)
Thanks for reading, guys! all your questions and ideas are more than welcome in the comment box! Have a great week.
#MELI - 1H - 13.11.2020 / Latin American Amazon. MELI BACKGOUNDS
MercadoLibre (MELI) is an online e-commerce and payments platform. It operates through the following geographical segments: Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Venezuela, and Other Countries. The company provides users a platform for buying, selling and paying. Born in 1999 and founded by Marcos Galperin, its the largest ecommerce company in Latin America.
- Exponential growth since 2016.
- Boosted by the rise of ecommerce this year due to COVID-19.
- Super Strong Fundamental indicators.
- Amazing revenue over 2019 - 2020 beating all estimates.
Even though MELI is a direct competitor of huge ecommerce companies like Amazon, eBay and Shopify, they operate on a total different market. Quiet similar to Jumia in Africa.
Latin America is a huge market full of opportunities where Amazon left spaces that MELI took advantage of. Now, MELI is standing strong and keeps investing heavily to maintain its dominance. Last week was authorized by Brazil Central Bank to operate as a financial institution.
Although MELI its an Argentinian company, now its focusing on BRAZIL (209 million people market) and MEXICO (120 million people market). It´s Payments platform MercadoPagos, is a Fintech Payment solution that it is getting adopted massively by Latin Americans. It aloud all kind of business B2C to charge without cash or just transfer money between people. It´s e-commerce platform, operates at a 12 transactions per seconds and 80% of the total sales are from Brazil, Argentina and Mexico.
Last quarter revenue jumped to $1.12 billion from $603 million, exceeding analysts' projection of $984.8 million. Unique active users surged 92.2% to 76.1 million, while gross merchandise volume jumped 62.1% to $5.9 billion.
With a 64.792B market capitalization, and huge growth potential, MELI is just on initial stages of its history. This is the kind of share that you might regret on a near future of not buying it earlier.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. (1H)
Nothing left to say but MELI is on an uptrend basically since February of 2016.
I particularly like to analyze it on a 1H timeframe to see how respectful this stock is of supports and resistances of this year. We´ve got three supports near current price level. Uptrend + MA200 + Fibonacci 0.618.
I think that we might see a little test on Fibonacci´s 0.618 and then next stop is all time highs. I would be careful and wait this confirmation before go long. Would be wonderful to close next week above Ichimoku´s red cloud.
Jumia Technologies back to $14Lets be honest here, JMIA will report earnings on Tuesday premarket and tell us they are still losing money and won't be profitable until years to come. If we do crash like im expecting we do... this could very well be the final dip. JMIA has had some good things going for it like working with Microsoft but I think we see ONE LAST EARNINGS DUMP!
CHART LOOKS VERY BULLISH but with earnings it doesn't.
MELI Bullish Trade Setup (Long on Dips) Updates on MELI long setup, the corrective pullback into first long entry level at 38.2% retracement at 944 and second long entry level at 845 will be our two tier long entries trade plan for MELI. Look to establish Leaps on MELI expiring 2021 with a dip into 944 and 845. Trade execution details on Video Update.
MELI Bullish Trade SetupMELI is also on our watchlist for potential long entries with this corrective pullback into wave (C). MELI is an online trading platform similar to AMZN in Latin America. Based on Q2 13F filings, we have about 143 new filers by hedge funds adding to their position. Look for multiple entry at $857 and $757 and Stops at about $650. Leaps Trade Execution details on Video Update.
MELI Bullish Trade Setup MELI is also on our watchlist for potential long entries with this corrective pullback into wave (C). MELI is an online trading platform similar to AMZN in Latin America. Based on Q2 13F filings, we have about 143 new filers by hedge funds adding to their position. Look for multiple entry at $857 and $757 and Stops at about $650. Leaps Trade Execution details on Video Update.
$MELI Hitting Resistance - Candle of Death$MELI Hitting Resistance - Candle of Death
Looking over-extended with the gravestone doji on 4 hr chart - finding resistance at the 1.618 fib level. High risk short play.
Short term target - $880.00
If 20d ema line is broken we could see $800 near term.
Note: Education analysis, not investment advice.