BTC consolidation continues but still in a bull trend1. BTC up 26% in 8 days, which is followed by a 21 day 5% range consolidation. It is reasonable to take some time to digest the selling power after the radical rally.
2. Moreover, 30000-32000 serves as a key resistance level. A lot of transaction happens at this range last May-June during the LUNA crash, which means meaningful weak hand losers finally break even and exit positions, bringing in short term selling pressure.
3. 5% consolidation range sounds healthy to me and I would accumulate 10% long position at the lower bound of the range.
4. Macro and policy tailwind still there. Having said that, one thing makes me a bit worried is that market doesn't play out with the positive news. So if price break down the range with a minor -ve news, I would be more cautious. That's why I only place a 10% position here.
5. Two scenario in forecast:
a) price finally break up the range finally and reach 35000, then I pull back is likely (with MACD divergence). So I would trim down my position to lock in some profit
b) if price break down 30000 range, then 27000-28000 would be a range to accumulate 20-30% position.
6. Action plan: place a limited long order at 30300 with 10% long position
