Get started

Mentorship

EURUSD & DXY OUTLOOK | 4HDXY is kinda aligning with my bias. I personally think it will go for the imbalance and the gap will act like a base. For EU I'd look for shorts in the whole retracement zone. I have two POIs which I marked - 2WT & DBD. I always make sure DXY aligns with EU when I'm entering. Keep it in mind. The whole retracement zone is a big supply zone. I personally do not think that EU will exceed it but in case it does the same POIs will work as Demand - D>S. What do you think? 2WT = 2 Way Trap DBD = Drop Base Drop Supply Zone
by curtal
The Best Strategy of 2024: Reversal Entry ModelGood morning, today I would like to draw your attention to a model that I am integrating into my analyses for this year. In this model, we define simple structural changes either downwards or upwards, in this context downwards using two BOS. Subsequently, we define the main demand zone where the price retests. After the retest, the price breaks upwards the structure creating a CHOCH, or an internal breakout. Afterwards, the price will move into a lateral phase accumulating a lot of liquidity, and as it is known, as soon as the price absorbs liquidity above or below a range, it then moves in the opposite direction of the filled liquidity. In this case, liquidity is absorbed below in the order block zone and the price moves upwards. I recommend supplementing charts with this model and identifying these setups starting from an H4 timeframe which can be simpler compared to smaller timeframes. Best regards and happy trading to everyone.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EURUSD | New Low to 1.0750 before the Rally!EUR/USD, after breaking through a demand zone between 1.07 and 1.0790, is now heading towards another demand area at the level of 1.075, coinciding with the low of the bearish channel. This zone could be significant for an upward reversal in price, with a potential return towards 1.09. It will be crucial to assess the price action at the London opening this morning, especially considering the reaction to the NFP data after the sharp drop on Friday. From a fundamental perspective, the US Dollar is strengthening as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delays potential rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are further supporting the Dollar. We are awaiting EU Sentix data and US ISM PMI. In the post-meeting press conference on Wednesday, Powell stated that "unexpected weakening in the labor market would lead us to cut rates earlier than expected." According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 37.5% probability that the Fed will reduce the policy rate by 25 bps to 5%-5.25% in March, while this probability rises to 60% for May. Warm regards and happy trading to all.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
15M Pro OrderFlow | A Unique and Profitable StrategyIn this approach, we will outline one of the best entry points on M15. The model involves quickly assessing a potential demand area by identifying a liquidity zone formed during the Fibonacci retracement at the .62-0.78 level. From this zone, the market initiates a physiological uptrend before retracing downward, creating a sharp movement with an internal break, followed by a bounce in the demand area. It is at this moment that a precise entry will be executed, aiming to reach the structure's peak. It is important to note that this model is also applicable to H1, H4, and Daily time frames. Greetings to everyone and happy trading.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
The best trading setup with Entry!In this model, we observe a market that begins to consolidate before a sharp decline, during which liquidity is created with an imbalance. Immediately after, there is an upward movement with rising highs and lows, forming a bullish liquidity trendline. When the price reaches a point where it starts to consolidate, dual liquidity is generated on the buy side in the upper part of the consolidation. Subsequently, a false upward movement occurs, during which the price gains liquidity from the previous order block created by the initial sharp decline. This creates an excellent opportunity to enter a short position, with the aim of reaching the minimum of the main decline. Updates will be provided with an example applied in a real case study. Greetings and happy trading to everyone from Nicola.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAUUSD | Short opportunities and Geopolitical tensionThe price of gold gained bullish momentum, reaching a new weekly high above $2,050. Escalating geopolitical tensions and declining US Treasury bond yields, driven by soft producer inflation data from the United States, fueled the XAU/USD rally ahead of the weekend. Continued buying would negate any short-term negative outlook and set the stage for a move towards the round figure of $2,100. On the downside, the bearish trajectory could extend further towards the December low around the $1,973 area before eventually reaching the confluence area of $1,965-1,963, which includes the 100- and 200-day SMAs. Gold price (XAU/USD) extended its recovery on Friday from a one-month low around the $2,013 area, representing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). It gained positive traction for the second consecutive day on Friday, steadily rising during the early European session. The precious metal benefited from renewed safe-haven demand amid the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, it remains below the $2,040-2,042 threshold, urging caution for bullish traders due to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cut path. Slightly higher consumer inflation figures released from the United States on Thursday, coupled with hawkish remarks from Fed officials, led investors to reduce their bets on a more aggressive policy easing. This provided tailwinds for US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar (USD), potentially limiting gains for the non-yielding gold price. Markets are still pricing in a higher probability of a Fed rate cut in March, offering support for the non-yielding yellow metal as traders await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and a speech from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari for short-term impetus.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
8
GBP/USD Expected to Decline in JanuaryEconomic and Political Context: Market Sentiment: The GBP/USD exhibits a positive trend above 1.2700 during Wednesday's European session, bolstered by an improvement in market sentiment and renewed weakness in the US Dollar. Influence of Bank of England (BoE) Policy: BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is expected to defend the decision to tighten policy to combat inflation. If he leaves the door open for further rate hikes, this could strengthen the pound, pushing GBP/USD upwards. Geopolitical Situation: Concerns over a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and its impact on energy prices and inflation could drive flows towards safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar. Technical Factors: Daily Chart Technical Analysis: The GBP/USD price shows a potential supply zone around the 1.2880 level. This could be a key point for a possible change in direction, where a short position might be considered. Price Target: A potential target for a short position might be around the 1.2550 level, aligning with a bounce from the bullish trend line. Recent Trend: The pair broke a four-day winning streak on Tuesday, suggesting caution among investors. Other Relevant Factors: 10-Year US Treasury Note Auction: The auction results could affect the yield of US Treasury notes and, consequently, the value of the US Dollar. A high yield could strengthen the dollar, while a lower-than-expected yield could weaken it. Conclusion and Trading Strategy: The combination of these factors suggests a cautious yet attentive approach to trading opportunities. Bailey's testimony and the US Treasury note auction are key events to monitor, as they could significantly influence the direction of GBP/USD. My prediction involves entering a short position near the 1.2880 level with a target around 1.2550, and tomorrow's American CPI data will be of vital importance and impact.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
USDJPY| Breakout of a bullish channel with a target at 141.80Analyzing the USD/JPY pair, I observe that it is consolidating losses below the 144.00 level. The Japanese Yen (JPY) has gained traction following softer-than-expected Tokyo inflation data, strengthening expectations of a more hawkish approach by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and widening the monetary policy divergence between the BoJ and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). U.S. economic data indicates a still-resilient economy, dampening hopes for more aggressive policy easing by the Fed. This supports high U.S. Treasury bond yields, benefiting the dollar. However, USD bulls seem hesitant to place aggressive bets, preferring to wait for Thursday's consumer inflation data. The Yen continues to attract buying for the second consecutive day after inflation in Tokyo remained above BoJ's 2% target. This could lead the BoJ to scale back its massive stimulus later this year, strengthening the JPY. On the other hand, the USD is weakened by expectations of a Fed rate cut in March, bolstered by a drop in U.S. consumer inflation expectations. Consequently, the USD/JPY pair has dropped below the mid-143.00s during the Asian session. Post-earthquake government stimulus measures in Japan might have delayed BoJ's shift from its ultra-accommodative stance. This, along with a positive tone around Asian equity markets, could limit any significant appreciation of the JPY as a safe haven. Investors have also scaled back expectations for more aggressive Fed policy easing, given the resilience of the U.S. economy. Recent hawkish remarks by Fed officials support high U.S. bond yields, favoring the dollar and limiting the downside for the USD/JPY pair. The upcoming U.S. CPI report might provide clarity on the timing of the Fed's potential policy easing, influencing the dollar's dynamics and determining the short-term trajectory of the USD/JPY pair. I expect a rise in the next few hours, with a rebound at the intersection of a new forming downtrend at H4 and the broken bullish channel during the Asian session, possibly leading to a short entry around 144.50 with a final target at 141.80. Let's see if the market confirms this personal view. Happy trading to all.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
EURUSD: Good point to evaluate the weekly direction!On EUR/USD, there's noticeable buying interest, with the pair rebounding from multi-week lows at 1.0876 to settle around 1.0948, marking a modest 0.09% increase. During Thursday's European trading hours, EUR/USD gained ground but struggled to extend its recovery later in the day due to rising U.S. Treasury bond yields, supporting the Dollar (USD). The initial improvement in risk sentiment made it challenging for the USD to find demand on Thursday. However, after the ADP Employment Change report for December came in at 164,000, exceeding market expectations of 115,000, the yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury bond rose above 4%, helping the USD limit its losses. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the U.S. are expected to rise by 170,000 in December, following a higher-than-expected increase of 199,000 in November. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates a 65% chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut the policy rate by 25 basis points in March, down from 85% at the beginning of the week. My personal expectation for today and possibly in the absence of movement in the coming days, I expect the price to drop below 1.088 to collect liquidity before bouncing towards 1.102 or a second scenario I personally consider less likely, a direct short towards 1.081. Happy trading everyone, from Nicola.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
GBP/USD up at 1.25!The GBP/USD is hovering around 1.2250 on a quiet Monday. The pair printed a fresh daily high at 1.2259 on the back of Dollar weakness. Attention shifts toward UK employment figures and the critical US CPI data due on Tuesday. The GBP/USD gained momentum and pushed towards 1.2250 in the European session on Monday after spending the Asian session fluctuating in a tight channel slightly above 1.2200. The pair's near-term technical outlook suggests that sellers remain reluctant to bet on persistent Pound Sterling weakness. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak sacked Home Secretary Suella Braverman Monday morning to begin his reshuffle of the cabinet. James Cleverly got appointed as the new Home Secretary, and Sunak named former Prime Minister David Cameron as the new Foreign Secretary. On Tuesday, the UK's Office for National Statistics will release the jobs report, which will include wage inflation figures for October. Later in the day, October Consumer Price Index data from the US will be watched closely by market participants. Despite Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish comments last week, markets are still pricing in a more than 80% probability that the Fed will leave the policy rate unchanged in December. The price has started moving after the rebound on the trendline intersection. The market could break the supply zone just above and then retest it before moving upwards. Leave a like and comment to support our work, greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
5
EUR/USD Dynamics & Market FactorsEUR/USD Pair: The EUR/USD pair is trading within a tight range around the 1.0700 level during the Asian session, lacking a clear intraday direction. US Treasury Bond Yields and Equities: A recent significant pullback in US Treasury bond yields and a rally in US equity markets have not provided support for the US Dollar, traditionally considered a safe-haven asset, contributing to a favorable environment for the EUR/USD pair. Federal Reserve Rate Hike Path: Uncertainty surrounds the future path of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Recent indications from the Fed that financial conditions may already be tight enough to control inflation have led to the perception that the Fed might pause its interest rate hike campaign. US Monthly Jobs Report: The less robust US monthly jobs report released on Friday has reinforced the notion that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current policy stance for the third consecutive time in December. Hawkish Fed Officials: Some Federal Reserve officials have adopted an assertive tone and recognized the resilience of the US economy. German Industrial Production: Tuesday's data revealed a more significant decline than expected in German industrial production in September, which could weigh on the Euro and restrict the potential upside for the EUR/USD pair. European Central Bank (ECB) Rate Hikes: Expectations suggest that further rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) may not be on the agenda, indicating a bearish outlook for the Euro. Market Drivers: The release of the final German Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Eurozone Retail Sales data, along with US bond yields and overall market sentiment, will influence the US Dollar and potentially create short-term trading opportunities for the EUR/USD pair.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
SP500 pulled back by 100 points before heading towards 4500.On Friday, we witnessed a strong growth in the SP500 index, further bolstering its performance, with an increase of 0.94%. The day started with strength, opening 4,334.2 points above the previous session's highs, and quotations strengthened throughout the entire session. In fact, it has been an impressive week for the SP500, with the index rising by over 200 points (5%). More importantly, it has returned to a significant zone that has acted as both support and resistance in the past two years. From a technical perspective, touching this resistance could lead to a correction, and this drop could provide a good buying opportunity. I expect a price return to the level of 4290, which is a retest of the trendline, as the price is currently in an order block, a very important area where sellers will try to push the price down. Once the price reaches the 4290 area, it could potentially rise towards 4500, or the 0.705 Fibonacci level. Let me know what you think. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3