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XAUUSD Up according to plan after NFP!The price of gold has increased to the $1,830 area, with the yield of the 10-year US Treasury benchmark falling below 4.8% after initially rising to 4.9% in response to the US September jobs report, giving a boost to XAU/USD. The next directional move of the gold price will depend on the outcome of the US NFP report. From a technical perspective, the daily setup appears mixed in the short term, with a bearish cross confirmation countering any potential for a rebound in oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) conditions. The 100-day Moving Average (DMA) crossed below the 200 DMA on a daily closing basis on Wednesday, confirming a bearish crossover. On the upside, if the recovery holds, gold buyers will target the previously supportive-turned-resistance level at $1,850, in case the strong resistance near $1,830 breaks. Furthermore, the gold price could challenge bearish commitments at the September 28 and 29 highs of $1,880. Alternatively, the gold price needs to find acceptance below the crucial support at the $1,810 level, where the March 8 low is situated. The $1,800 threshold will be the level to surpass for gold sellers, opening the path towards the psychological level of $1,750. The gold price is temporarily gaining ground, as the US dollar has entered a consolidation phase after two consecutive days of correction from an 11-month high. The subdued tone around the US dollar could be attributed to a slightly positive mood in the Asian session this Friday, despite mixed developments in the Chinese property market. Shares of Sunac China Holdings Ltd. surged after the property giant obtained approval for a debt restructuring plan. Meanwhile, shares of China Evergrande Group fell by over 10%, limiting gains in Asian indices. However, Hong Kong's Hang Seng is rallying 2% for the day. The extended decline in oil prices combined with a pause in the surge of US Treasury bond yields is providing some comfort to investors. However, they refrain from placing any fresh directional bets on the gold price and the US dollar ahead of the release of US labor market data. Economists are expecting the US economy to have added 170,000 jobs in September, slowing down from the 180,000 additions reported in August. The unemployment rate is expected to be slightly lower, dropping from 3.8% to 3.7% in September, while average hourly earnings are likely to rise by 4.3% year on year in the reported period, similar to the previous reading. Following a much smaller-than-expected US private job growth, as reported by ADP, of 89,000 in September, downside risks remain intact for the headline NFP number, which could further weigh on the November rate hike expectations by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), in light of loosening labor market conditions. In the case of a disappointing US NFP report, the US dollar correction could gain additional traction alongside US Treasury bond yields, bolstering recovery attempts in the gold price towards $1,850 and beyond. Conversely, if US labor market data, including wage inflation, suggest that the Fed can opt for one more rate hike by year-end, the US dollar could resume its uptrend at the expense of the non-interest-bearing gold price. Additionally, observe a new demand area from 1800 to 1820, in which I expect a retracement before a continuation of the price's long direction. Let me know what you think, leave a like and comment. Have a great weekend everyone from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
4
EUR/USD on the right path for a recovery?EUR/USD reached the weekly high at 1.0600 and consolidated around 1.0580, marking a slight weekly increase. Despite positive data on U.S. non-farm payrolls for September, the U.S. dollar surprisingly weakened on Friday. The pair stabilized above the upper limit of the descending regression channel, with an RSI of 60 on the 4-hour chart, indicating a short-term bullish outlook. Immediate resistance is at 1.0570 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend), and a 4-hour close above this level could attract buyers, with subsequent targets at 1.0600 and 1.0640. However, a return of EUR/USD within the descending channel, with a 4-hour close below 1.0530, could lead to further losses towards 1.0500 and 1.0450. On Friday, the pair stabilized around 1.0550 after two consecutive days of gains. Anticipating the U.S. September jobs report, the dollar struggled on Thursday due to a correction in the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield. Later in the day, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the September jobs report, with forecasts of a 170,000 increase in Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). A reading below 150,000 could lead to dovish Fed bets and a decrease in U.S. yields. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 35% probability of another 25 basis points rate hike by the Fed by year-end. Market participants will closely monitor Wall Street's performance. If risk flows dominate the financial markets following a weak NFP and U.S. stocks rally into the weekend, it's likely that EUR/USD will close the week on a bullish note. The goal is to wait for the price in the demand zone and then evaluate a possible rise from 1.05 to 1.07. Let me know what you think. Good evening to all from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
5
GBP/USD Ready to Restart with NFP?The GBP/USD exchange rate is showing a slight decline around 1.2180 during the Asian session on Friday, indicating a retracement from recent gains. However, the US Dollar (USD) is correcting following the decrease in US bond yields, providing upward support for the exchange rate. A key support level is at 1.2100, represented by the 20-period Simple Moving Average and the upper limit of a previously broken descending regression channel. If 1,2100 remains intact, buyers may remain interested. The next resistance levels are expected at 1.2160, 1.2200, and 1.2250. However, if 1,2100 were to give way, sellers could push the exchange rate towards 1.2060 and 1.2000. During the Asian session on Thursday, GBP/USD surpassed 1,2150 but later lost momentum, yet managed to stabilize above 1,2100 during the European session. Improved risk sentiment made it challenging for the USD to find demand in the latter half of Wednesday, contributing to the recovery of GBP/USD. Disappointing US labor market data showed a modest increase in private sector employment in September, negatively impacting the USD. The UK's FTSE 100 index saw a modest growth on Thursday, while US stock index futures indicated a mixed risk sentiment. The USD's downward correction is likely to remain limited unless major Wall Street indexes open higher and build on Wednesday's gains. Market participants will closely monitor the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data ahead of Friday's September jobs report. This week's employment-related data failed to provide a clear picture of labor market conditions. The sharp increase in JOLTS job openings highlighted strong labor demand, but ADP's report revealed a loss of momentum in private sector hiring. Hence, an Initial Jobless Claims reading below 200,000 could boost the USD, while a significant increase in first-time applications for unemployment benefits could have a negative impact on the USD's valuation. A brief reflection on the dollar and the pound before NFP: currently, my short-term view remains short until the demand zone at the 1.2150 level, where I expect a bounce for a new long position. Let me know what you think; happy trading to all from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
XAUUSD: Accumulation Ahead of NFP Data!Gold price is in a slightly bearish phase, staying below $1,820 due to the impact of the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond, which is above 4.7%. This situation makes it difficult for XAU/USD to undertake a significant recovery. Technical analysis on the daily chart indicates a bearish trend for XAU/USD, with indicators showing an abundance of sell signals in heavily oversold territory, without signs of downward exhaustion. The momentum indicator is accelerating downward, reaching around 94, while the relative strength index (RSI) is at 18. Meanwhile, moving averages confirm the bearish strength, well above the current level, highlighting the sellers' dominance. Analyzing the 4-hour chart, the risk of further declines is evident. A simple 20-day moving average acts as dynamic resistance around $1,824.10. This indicates that XAU/USD is under the control of sellers, as confirmed by technical indicators that turned downward after a temporary correction in negative levels, reflecting the lack of interest from buyers despite the extremely oversold condition of the US dollar. Regarding support and resistance levels, it is expected that gold may find support at $1,804.70, $1,792.10, and $1,779.85, while it may encounter resistance at $1,824.10, $1,833.35, and $1,845.20. The spot price of gold is touching new multi-month lows, reaching $1,813 per troy ounce. Despite the extremely oversold conditions of the US dollar, the precious metal fails to attract buyers. The market is concerned about persistent inflationary pressures and a tight labor market, which could lead the Federal Reserve (Fed) to further monetary restrictions, with the consequent risk of an economic recession. Hawkish comments from Fed officials this week and mixed signals from the employment sector keep these concerns alive, awaiting the Nonfarm Payrolls report for September. It is expected that 178,000 new jobs will be added in the month, while the unemployment rate is expected to contract from 3.8% to 3.7%. Before the event, US Treasury yields have slightly stabilized after reaching historical peaks. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is currently at 4.72%, slightly down from a 16-year high of 4.88%, while the 2-year note offers 5.02% after soaring to 5.20% in mid-September. Lower yields prevent the US dollar from rallying in the short term. Furthermore, at the 1916 level, it seems that the price is accumulating for an imminent rise or fall. At the moment, my view is still long, with the price in the buy zone. It will be crucial to assess tomorrow's NFP data, which will definitely shake a price that has been too stagnant for days. Let me know what you think. Happy trading from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD: Is the correction over?During Thursday's Asian session, EUR/USD continued the positive trend initiated in the previous session, hovering around 1.0520. The movement of this pair was influenced by market caution regarding the trajectory of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Despite the Euro experiencing a rebound, it is not out of danger yet, as the correction could continue without posing a significant threat to the dominant trend. Analyzing the daily chart, the Euro is notably below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and within a descending channel. Only a surpassing of 1.0660 could shift the short-term perspective towards neutrality. On the 4-hour chart, there is a potential for an upward extension in EUR/USD, especially if the price remains above the 20-period SMA at 1.0505. The immediate resistance is around 1.0555, followed by an intermediate descending trendline at 1.0570. A drop below 1.0480 would reveal recent lows at 1.0450, with possible support at 1.0430, corresponding to the lower channel boundary. Despite recovering from the lows seen in the past year against the US Dollar, the Euro struggles to maintain levels above 1.0500, remaining under pressure with a Dollar-favoring trend. The sale of government bonds is causing anxiety among investors, with German 10-year yields reaching 3%, the highest level since 2011, while US Treasury yields touched 4.88% before retracing. Higher yields, combined with slowing inflation, result in a significant increase in real yields. Data from the Eurozone shows that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.6% in August, in line with expectations, but the annual rate slipped into negative territory from -7.6% to -11.5%. Retail sales in the Eurozone decreased by 1.2% in August, worse than market forecasts of a -0.3% slide. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde reiterated that interest rates would remain at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary. Markets do not anticipate another rate hike, and statements from ECB officials currently seem to have limited impact. On Thursday, Germany will report trade data. The US Dollar Index retreated on Wednesday, but the upward trend remains intact, and fundamental factors still favor the Dollar. The disappointing ADP report accentuated the correction, but upcoming employment data, including Jobless Claims on Thursday and Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, will be crucial. In essence, I expect a false breakout of the swing high at the 1.0530 level, followed by a decline targeting 1.0465 to touch the FVG at m15. Let me know what you think. Happy trading to all from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Is NASDAQ ready to reverse?Decline for the US technology stocks index, closing the session sharply lower with a loss of 1.83% from previous values. The start was weak for the index, which began the day at 14,744 points above the previous session's bottom, only to worsen its performance throughout the meeting and end even lower at 14,565.6, the session's lowest level. The technical picture of the Nasdaq 100 signals an expansion of the negative trendline with a descent to the support seen at 14,475, while to the upside, it identifies the resistance area at 14,746.9. The forecasts suggest a possible further decline with the target set at 14,384.3. Key levels: Resistance at 15,020 and Support at 14,380. Furthermore, I note that the price is currently in a potential recovery, confirmed by the break of the previous swing low at the level of 14,810 and the creation of a new swing low at 14,650. Today, we will have the US ADP NFP and later ISM Service data. Finding potential entry points will be slightly challenging, considering potential volatility that could affect the market following the news release. My view is bullish, and I will seek an upward movement until the level of 15,000. Let me know what you think. Happy trading and greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
5
Educational: Quick Read: Trading Mentors. Do you need them?When I first started trading seven years ago, I had this idea that I didn't need a trading mentor. I felt that it was "cool" to be able to say "I learned trading on my own; I had no mentors", but is this necessarily a good thing? Should traders think like this? Are trading mentors any good? Let's talk about it.. Trading mentors are seasoned traders who provide new or struggling traders with advice, encouragement, and feedback. They can aid traders in honing their abilities, methods, and mindsets as well as avoiding traps and errors that are frequently made. Do traders need a mentor, though? And where do they look for a good one? The first question's response is based on the trader's objectives, character, and preferred method of learning. Some traders could like independent study, trial-and-error learning, books, classes, or online resources. Having a mentor who can offer individualized guidance, accountability, and motivation may be advantageous for others. Additionally, a mentor can assist traders in overcoming psychological obstacles like fear, greed, arrogance, or a lack of discipline. Having a mentor, however, does not ensure success. Trading needs ongoing learning, adaptability, and self-improvement because it is a dynamic and complex activity. The trader must follow the path; a mentor can only show them the way. Additionally, a mentor may have limits, biases, or conflicts of interest that could skew their assessment or suggestions. Because of this, traders should seek inspiration and criticism from their mentors rather than mindlessly copying them. How to locate a decent mentor is the second query. This can be difficult because there are many mentors out there who assert to know the keys to successful trading but may lack the credentials, expertise, or outcomes to support their claims. Some can even be con artists who demand exorbitant prices for inaccurate or damaging information. Trading professionals should exercise due diligence and investigate potential mentors' backgrounds, records, reputations, and testimonies to avoid falling for such mentors. They should seek for mentors who share their trading philosophy, style, and objectives and who can provide a concise, doable roadmap for their development. Traders who desire to quicken their learning curve and accomplish their trading objectives may find trading mentors to be an invaluable resource. However, traders should use caution when selecting a mentor and should not use them to replace their own diligence, investigation, and analysis. Note: 💠Do not mistake people selling trading courses for trading mentors. Very often, individuals selling courses are selling you a system and are not actually mentoring anyone. Due to the size of their following, it is not possible for them to really mentor anyone. A true mentor is someone who will be able to walk you through the process, and you'll have direct access to them for a personalized learning experience. 💠Verified track record: It is industry standard to provide at least six months of consistency, preferably at least a year. If you are going to spend months learning from someone, you need to first verify that they actually know what they are doing.
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by ChristopherDownie
GOLD : What Should Be Ideal Risk Reward Ratio OANDA:XAUUSD A good risk/reward ratio could be seen as greater than 1:3, where you would risk 1/4 of the overall potential profit. For trading to prove profitable in the long term, a trader should not typically risk their capital for a lower risk/reward ratio, as this will mean that half or more of their investment could be lost. The risk/reward ratio marks the prospective reward an investor can earn for every dollar they risk on an investment. Many investors use risk/reward ratios to compare the expected returns of an investment with the amount of risk they must undertake to earn these returns. A lower risk/return ratio is often preferable as it signals less risk for an equivalent potential gain. Consider the following example: an investment with a risk-reward ratio of 1:7 suggests that an investor is willing to risk $1, for the prospect of earning $7. Alternatively, a risk/reward ratio of 1:3 signals that an investor should expect to invest $1, for the prospect of earning $3 on their investment. Traders often use this approach to plan which trades to take, and the ratio is calculated by dividing the amount a trader stands to lose if the price of an asset moves in an unexpected direction (the risk) by the amount of profit the trader expects to have made when the position is closed (the reward). KEY TAKEAWAYS The risk/reward ratio is used by traders and investors to manage their capital and risk of loss. The ratio helps assess the expected return and risk of a given trade. In general, the greater the risk, the greater the expected return demanded. An appropriate risk reward ratio tends to be anything greater than 1:3.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by INVESTRONE
Can I Learn Forex On My Own?A question that is frequently asked is "Can I Learn Forex On My Own?". Like any other ability, learning how to trade currencies can be self-taught through books, the internet, and practise. The learning process can be substantially accelerated and your chances of success increased, though, by having a mentor. You can discover when learning to trade independently that you are lacking crucial knowledge or have inaccurate beliefs about specific trading tactics. A mentor can offer direction and explanation, clearing up any misunderstandings and bridging any knowledge gaps. A mentor can also offer insightful criticism on your choices and assist you in recognising and breaking any negative habits you may have formed. A mentor might also introduce you to fresh techniques and equipment that you might not have found on your own. Expert traders can assist you avoid the common blunders that inexperienced traders frequently make because they have a lot of information and experience to draw from. Additionally, a mentor can act as a sounding board—someone you can talk to about your analysis and breakdowns, and receive a second view from. They can help you discover areas that need improvement and provide a strategy for doing so. Instead of having to learn everything on your own, it is far faster to learn from someone who has previously gone through the process and has the necessary information and expertise. The accountability element is another advantage of having a mentor. Having a mentor can improve your motivation to succeed and hold you responsible for your actions since you have someone to answer to. Having a mentor can significantly shorten the learning curve and improve your chances of success, even though it is possible to study FX trading on your own. A mentor can offer insightful advice, criticism, and encouragement that will speed up your progress and help you avoid frequent pitfalls. The two main ingredients for success in any endeavour are accountability and motivation, both of which mentorship may assist with.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by opes_trading_group