Great MES DaySorry this one was a little rushed but I knew if I didn't do it today I wouldn't do it at all. Took some nice setups and some nice re-entries but nothing too crazy. Still dabbling in futures but made 800$ from 2000$
MES
MES futures review 2/17/23Took some nice liquidity sweeps long and then they paid out pretty nice. They seem to be working very well, just something to note.
S&P500 TRADE IDEALong trade on a strong support area. Take advantage for a quick scale. Keep in mind your risk tolerance. High impact news at 10am.
MES trade recap Monday 11/28Just a quick recap of what the market did and my thought process behind trades that I took.
EMini /ES Futures Spooky Long setupFellow traders,
If the full moon tonight excites the animal within - I propose taking a look at the S&P500 daily chart... (although this is a 2hr chart for detail ;) Full bullish structure, a balance day after Friday's strong push. MA's are strong and previous price structure resembles a possible strong move to 4000
This entry isn't prime quality - I would like to enter cheaper, in fact I may just wait for 3820, but price action doesn't look like it will allow it and I get a hunch we may move higher quickly. My confidence in the up move this week outweighs hesitation.
Lets not forget the ghastly Fed meeting on Wednesday. Any shift in the Fed's ominous tone on the plan to increase interest rates in the future could create a lot of supernatural buying pressure - in fact that is what the charts are resonating to me.
If it's a treat I'm in. I'll comment if I raise the order in the morning. The plan will be to leave it valid for 2 days, I'm sure we will get a quick flash lower to that level.. *nod to zombie news traders finding liquidity lower before the blast higher.
Happy Halloween 2022! Trick-er-treat ES, you got Reeses Cups or Candy Corn?
ES - Is the bottom in???Fellow traders,
ES is in a tricky place. Many traders are getting excited about longs this week and I can't blame them. However, my strategy is painting a different picture.
Last Tuesday and Wednesday we saw 3580 holding LIKE A BRICK WALL. It is very clear institutional entities had an interest in defending the level. 3600 - 3580 was a battle zone that I don't want any part of.
Last Thursday we had a mega hammer bar that pierced the low with power, then reversed and closed at the MA's (moving averages). In all technical respects, this bar is telling us to tighten expectations on shorts. It's location in the median range (3720 - 3520) reduces it's value as a bottom indicator. Clear respect of the MA's tells us this was a controlled lift from the low.
Friday was ALMOST an equal and opposite bar, however, the body of the candle is completely inside Thursday's candle body with it's upper wick smaller than Thursday's down wick. The value of this bar is very low.
All this being said, last week was a balance as expected. Last Sunday I had mapped out a few short entries, one at 3720 that did work well later in the week. Tuesday I raised an order on it and Wednesday the order was removed based on the daily chart structure. Specifically I don't like how the MA's are bunched together.
So I'm at an impasse. Chances are this week is going to be unprofitable for many traders. There is NO clear direction for my strategy. 2 conditions that would prompt my interest this week
1. Solid moves above 3680 with verified long entries around 3720
2. Daily closes below 3580 with short entries round 3520
I bet this would be a good week for range traders, but I'll leave that fun for those folks.
3735 Level Broken3735 has shown to be a line in the sand , support or resistance for trend within the megaphone pattern
We could build a base for support here or reject today
S&P500 LINE IN THE SAND 3735 was support for the previous rally until data release demolished it , then was re-tested on stop run for the most recent data release and was rejected followed by a massive drop , 61% retracement of the drop and straight back up. Now approaching 3735 again for a potential low-risk short set-up.
A break above , and holding a re-test would be cause for longs to go right on ahead.
10/09/22 ES Weekly SummaryWith the downtrend intact, I’m not taking any long trades this week. Shorts only.
I’ve marked some trades of interest in terms of level and price, not accurate on the time scale obviously.
Price is still in the wedge and I’m mostly interested in shorting from the high side. Last Thursday we got a short entry at the US open that hit our price target (see the linked idea). I believe the downward pressure was influenced by news about “Nuclear Armageddon with Russia'' headlines that seem to be nothing more than a headline and price motivator.
That being said - until we break the low of 3571.75, it would seem this selloff is now validating a much stronger bullish bounce (post coming soon about how I interpret price validation). I would not be surprised if the bottom starts to establish here. I would need to see daily closes outside the wedge to get aggressive about buying. For now I'm targeting shorts only and keeping my powder dry.
SPX potential diamond bottom formation crucial levels of SMA 175SPX potential diamond bottom formation. with support of SMA 175 we might see a recovery.
bulls need to defend ~3700 levels.
but if we see a weekly close below 3600 we will see a free fall.
MES shortAfter the 4 weeks of super bullish trend I am waiting for some kind of reversal on the 4320- 4330 levels also daily 200 MA is right above.
first target 4200 then... let see
Bear market over? The structure shift we will need to see.We can observe the weekly trend in MES which mirrors SPX and all SPX futures. Following consecutive lower lows and lower highs, we have broken the prior swing high to create a higher high. Equal highs and the weekly fair value gap above act as a draw on liquidity. Weekly fair value gap below also acts as a draw on liquidity.
Retest and ‘double bottom’ in weekly demand would confirm a higher low following this higher high. Until proven otherwise, this is still a corrective move in a downtrend on higher timeframes.
SPY/SPX/ES/MES Elliot Wave AnalysisLooks like a big rally shaping up to end the month of May, but June should be a full-on bear fest, at least to start the month. Major Wave 1 down should end in the 3200 - 3500 zone. Likely, we'll rebound from there into the Fall of 2022.
Major Wave 3 will likely project down to the 1500 zone. Major Wave 5 will likely end in late Spring 2023 with target projections somewhere between 1500 - 1200 with a very real possibility of undercutting the 2009 low @ 666.
If we do undercut 666, supercycle Wave 5 up should begin, lasting 8.6 years into 2032 and reaching 50k to 100k + on the Dow Industrials. After that, it's possible the whole thing drops to zero and the shithouse goes up in flames.
Credit to Dan E. for his wave analysis and Elliot Wave International CME_MINI:ES1!
Side note - When things get super volatile, I like to trade the mini ES. Trades great with excellent liquidity.
Planning Opportunities in the MES and Areas to Trade on 4H Just a quick trade map of where I think the opportunities might be on the current 4-hour configuration. Looking to get short in the 4075 area with a main target front running the balance area
MESTF: 4 Hr
Might see price come down to $4300 area. If it does come to that level and bounces I think price will see $4,700. However, if it does not hold, I think price will test and may break $4,100 level.
Long Signal MESM22Buy Signal
Entry - 4458.50
TP - 4654.00
SL - 4388.00
For Daily Support/Resistance levels click here!
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S&P500 - Too good to short?Many indication point to a near term short.
1. The blue Arrows measures the pullback swings. Currently we are exactly at the highs, where price usually turned south.
2. Price got rejected again right at the KillZone
3. The A/R Resistance converge with the current high.
4. The indicators MACD & RSI signal short.
So, what's a Trader to do here?
Could price move even higher? Sure, no doubt. These markets are highly manipulated and trading totally crazy.
But...we are Traders. We live on probabilities and good money management.
For me, this is a superb bet.
And how could we play this short?
Because of the volatility, I stopped to go in with the whole position in one spot.
What does that mean?
It means, that I enter such trades in 3 stages, using reverse pyramiding. It can be with the underlying it self, or with substitutes, like Options, or even a combination, depending on my risk and greed level.
So, why not just enter with a small position in the Micro-Futures, and pump the trade up on confirmation?
Bet small. You can always re-enter any market, as long as you have money in your account!
Stay well, trade well.
#pigsgetslaughtered
Spy and ES day trade, Thing to look at before openToday: ** 4345 range is a border I see the market needs to cross to show more of its longer term plan. to the down side overnight low. strong long side trade 4323. then 4345. A drop below overnight low could see yesterdays lows.
Day trading ES, or SPYArrow marks the possible location of the next long entry, will keep you informed if i take it.
Last two days of ES day tradingUn real this new indicator has been absolutely amazing, locking in maximum gains day after day.
I try to post them here before they happen but it is hard to get them out to you in time and still trade them.
I will try, or come check us out.
Expecting Long on Balance LowShort term Long sided trade on MES. I am expecting long sided trade because delta is hugely diverged. So i will give it a shot.
