MES is showing a highly sell opportunity, a strong trend line broke, sellers are pushing the market, gonna hit the target if not it'll get close to it.
Market open saw a violent turn to the downside which broke prior a two touch support and then quickly retraced giving us a swing failure to trade. Just watching how this one goes.
Bullish Case of $ES_F #ES_F $MES $SPX Bulls are not done yet. Here is why: - Brocken demand base retested - Daily/Weekly Open retested - Clean break thru Monthly open, looking for retest Invalidation: close below Weekly Open. We may shit the bed below Monthly open for more liquidity.
technical structure marked + end of week/month/quarter trade risk w/ China + corona risk + Senate bill to punish China for HK dealings key levels: 3050 / *3075-80* / 3100 Invalid above 3130 Profit Taking 3025/3010/3000 Trade Safe Blessings
A break of the 2990-3020 confluence of supports leads us immediately lower to 2930, the 0.618 fib off the Feb ATH to March lows. That is going to be a 70 point run without any heat, so just fade any rally attempt on the way from 2990 to 2930. We'll see from there where we go - I think lower still, the target would be 2840 (follow the blue circles).
Wow what a trap, pennant fakeout to the upside then reversal. Funnily enough, I went long and bag held that bottom - I had to triple down to get out for a scratch. It's hilarious how the market can get in your head, even in the most dire permabears like me. Well played market, you win this battle (but I did too cause I scratched it).
Alot of bulls got trapped by this weeks price action, they are bag holding - just look at the volume profile. They are going to rush for the exits on a break of 3060.
Wherever this goes, whether it breaks up (as expected) or down decides. A break down of this pennant means no new ATH for bulls. A break up means we see 3180-3220 easily and then time to pile in heavy short. Remember, we just had a guy flash a 2000 lot ask limit at 3125 for several minutes before pulling it then reappearing with 600 at the same 3125 level once...
Watch out, that supply test back to Fridays HOD at 11 am today was a bullish flushout of weak hands.
Depending how big your stack is, this is how you play this. Long 2945 area +/-. Remember, 2930.00 is the 0.618 retracement on the dot from the February ATH to the March lows. If you start longing at 45 and it goes down, you need to be ready to double down. If you're more risk cautious, wait for a hammer to form. If you're a bear, take profits here (like...
last week the defense of 3000 lowered the volume profile at the 2950 level, and the POC is now up at 3198 (45min from May low)...quite the bull trap in hindsight. need to get multi day profiles on here some how. would have shown the change. if we break lower now....2800 seems more likely, with a pause at 2950....that would create some max pain on the opex...
ES Nice Pullbacks Create Buying Opportunities - Possible IH&S on the 1hr? ES is having issues getting back above and holding the 786 @3134.75 SPY having issues at the 786 @313 If we can get above and hold those levels we could see a great buying opportunity for the rest of the week. If we cannot hold these levels I am looking to short to 3078 It is highly...
Impressive rally off the 200d MA breakout last week. My gut feeling says we should pull back a little from here. Don't focus on headlines and news not related to monetary policy - only price pays! And be aware of the relentless bull stopping out increasingly weaker bears.
Easy trade. Go heavy short on this break, or position ahead of time. ES Weekly - match up the red dotted line on both the 4HR main chart and the weekly chart I posted below. Here is the intraday slop. ES data is delayed on TV, but this bull flag broke to the upsdie already. Short add targets, there is a risk this pumps to 3000 so play accordingly.
Here it is ladies & gentlemen. The second biggest short play of the year is about to commence. We have a H&S on the daily with price action neatly contained within a bearish rising wedge (pink) since MAY 13 overnight session (the bottom 2HR chart). The bearish rising wedge termination appears to coincide with the right shoulder of the H&S pattern. This puts ES...
Price in a small bull flag - bigger resistance right above. I'd be building a short position here if I had money, instead i'll just try to scalp.
GETTING TO APEX OF BEARISH RISING WEDGE
Looking for a 5th Wave Short on MES, Small Risk using these Micro Futures Contracts. So a Risk of less than $200 using 3 Micro Emini MES Contracts for this potential Short. Very Conservative entry, below recent pivot rejection - giving a 1:1 Risk to Reward to our Automated 5th Wave Target around 2952. Again, if the Stop for the order is taken out, then cancel...