ES Morning Update march 13thThis week has revolved around one key level in ES: 5568-72, which has been lost and reclaimed four times. At 11:20 PM yesterday, it triggered a long setup from an a textbook failed breakdown, leading to a 65+ point rally—and overnight, the same pattern repeated again.
As of now:
• No change—5568-72 remains weak support
• A 5599 reclaim sets up a move to 5616, 5643+
• If 5568 fails, expect further downside
MES1!
ES Morning Update March 12thSince I prioritize Failed Breakdowns, my job is pretty simple—do absolutely nothing until we get one. This is how you keep an incredibly high wind rate, while easily scaling your accounts. Yesterday, the 5569-72 reclaim triggered the long setup, leading to a 70+ point rally to the 5608 target, where we’re still holding.
As of now:
• 5599, 5569-72 must hold through CPI volatility to keep 5645, 5668, and 5703 in play
• A failure below could open up more downside
ES Morning Update March 11thYesterday marked the largest red day in ES since the August 5 capitulation low. After deep sell-offs, squeezes typically come from my core setup: The Failed Breakdown—which triggered at 9:30 PM, now up +75 points, as outlined in the plan sent out yesterday evening.
As of now:
• Hold the runner
• Next targets: 5668, 5688, 5703
• If 5628 fails, expect a dip to 5609 first
ES Morning Update Mar 10thFor the last three days, 5720 has been the key battleground in ES—testing, bouncing, breaking below, squeezing, and repeating. After another bounce to the 5764+ target on Friday, we’re back under it again.
As of now:
• Same setup: 5720 must reclaim to target 5745, 5763
• If 5700 fails, expect a dip to 5676 first
ES Morning Update March 7thES has been revolving around 5757-63, acting as a key magnet. It held as support in the morning, leading to a rally toward 5822, but once it failed in the afternoon, the market sold off to the 5725 target. Now, NFP will dictate the next move.
As of now:
• 5763 must recover to target 5777, 5794, and 5822
• On an NFP flush, 5714 and 5700 must hold to prevent deeper downside
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/06/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/06/2025
📈5798 5818 5838
📉5759 5739 5719
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update March 6thES has been stuck in the same range for nearly four days, with 5858-5875 acting as resistance and 5763 holding as support. Yesterday followed the same pattern—I was looking for a rally to resistance, we got it, and then the market reversed back down.
As of now:
• 5777, 5763-57 are key supports
• Reclaiming 5798 sets up a move toward 5809, 5822+
• If 5757 fails, expect selling to 5725
ES Morning Update March 5thYesterday was the most volatile session in ES since August, with three 100+ point round trips. I was looking for a squeeze to 5875—we hit 5875 exactly.
As of now:
• Size down—volatility remains high
• 5798, 5784 are key supports
• A recovery of 5822 is needed to push toward 5858
• If 5784 fails, look for a drop to 5763, then new lows
S&P500 Index Goes 'Draconian', ahead of Roller Coaster ExplosionThe S&P 500's "roller coaster" behavior stems from its sensitivity to various economic, geopolitical, and market-specific factors that influence investor sentiment and corporate performance.
Economic Factors: Changes in interest rates, inflation, and Federal Reserve policies significantly impact the index. For example, rising interest rates can reduce corporate earnings and valuations, leading to market sell-offs. Conversely, expectations of rate cuts can boost optimism and drive rallies.
Investor Sentiment and Volatility: The S&P 500 is closely tied to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often called the "fear gauge." The VIX rises during market downturns as investors seek portfolio protection, amplifying price swings. This inverse correlation highlights how fear or optimism can drive sharp movements in the index.
Global Events: Geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, or pandemics can disrupt markets by creating uncertainty about future economic performance. Such events often lead to sudden spikes or drops in the S&P 500 as investors react to perceived risks.
Valuation Cycles: Overvaluation or bubbles in specific sectors can lead to corrections. For instance, high price-to-earnings ratios combined with slower economic growth can result in prolonged periods of stagnation or volatility.
These factors collectively create the "roller coaster" effect begun in the S&P 500.
// Life is like a roller coaster, as you don't know what's going to be thrown at you next, so all you can do is give us your best shot.
--
Best wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/04/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/04/2025
📈5840 5858 5875
📉5800 5780 5760
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update March 4thYesterday, the breakdown short idea I mentioned at 5938-42 triggered a 100-point sell-off in ES. Coming into today, as noted in the plan yesterday evening, losing 5850 would set up a sharp short trigger—and we just got it, dropping 25 points so far.
As of now:
• 5814, 5798 are next downside targets if selling continues
• To reverse and rally, 5857 must reclaim
ES Morning Update March 3rdLast Friday around 1 PM, a Failed Breakdown near 5860 was triggered after multiple tests of support. Once reclaimed, it set up a strong long, and holding over the weekend paid off—now +130 points from that entry.
As of now:
• At resistance, so nothing to do but hold and wait
• 5977, 5938-40 = key supports
• If momentum continues, next upside targets are 6004, 6015-20, and 6042
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/28/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/28/2025
📈5915
📉5860
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update Feb 28thYesterday marked the sixth consecutive red day in ES—the first time since April 2024. After breaking down from a two-day base yesterday around 2pm, 5875 was the sell target, and it hit exactly at close before forming a base overnight.
As of now:
• 5875-80 is support but weakening
• Holding above keeps 5913 and 5939 in play
• If the overnight low fails, expect a dip toward 5850 area, then 5835-32
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/27/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/27/2025
📈6016
📉5976
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/26/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/26/2025
📈6035
📉5955
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update Feb 27thES has remained in the same 6020-5930 range all week, with triggers continuing to play out well. Yesterday, I noted that 5958-62 had to hold and reclaim 5988 to spark a rally. We hit 5958-62 exactly at 8 PM, reclaimed 5988, and rallied +25 points.
As of now:
• Hold runners, as things are getting more complex
• 5996, 5988-86 must hold to keep 6020 and 6042 in play
• A break below 5986 triggers selling
$MES1! Charting to Purchase $SPY 1-DTE Call Option, 15-min TFContract: AMEX:SPY 27 FEB 25 598c
Entry: $2.03 on 1:09pm
Exit: $1.26 on 1:58pm (-$77, -38%)
So after seeing price decrease 0.75%, 45 pints, 179 pips in 2 hours from $6,023.75 to $5,980 (support area), I decided to purchase a call expiring today on Feb 27, 2025.
On the 15min and 5min I noticed price bounced around the $5,980 area and thought price would reverse to the upside.
1) Yesterday on Feb 26 @ 1:09pm, I entered AMEX:SPY 27 FEB 25 598c @$2.03 because of the drop and potential reversal.
On the 5min:
- candle had made a higher low
- became an inside (1) candle #thestrat
- began consolidating & hit support around 5,980.
2) When placing my stop loss, I mistakenly set up my option call to sell when AMEX:SPY (the stock) touched or went above $3.05 instead of programming the option call to sell when the specific option call ( AMEX:SPY 27 FEB 25 598c) touched or went above $3.05.
You live and you learn.
On to the next play.
ES Morning Update Feb 26thDespite all the volatility yesterday, ES is right back where it started. After holding ~5933 support, the target was 5996, a major resistance shelf. As expected, it’s taking time to break through and has held all night.
As of now:
• Hold the runner
• Staying above 5988 keeps 6004, 6015, and 6020+ in play
• If 5988 fails, expect a dip toward 5962-58
ES Morning Update Feb 25thYesterday, all attention was on the 5993 area in ES. I expected a rally back up to 6043 off that level, and we saw it hold in the morning before pushing back to 6043. Later into the close, the market retested 5993 area again, sparking a 20-point rally. Overnight, a strong flush occurred, but the level was reclaimed, printing a textbook failed breakdown—5993 is now pretty used up in my opinion.
As of now:
• 6016-20, 6037 are the next targets
• 5996-93 (weak) and 5980 are serving as supports
• If these supports fail, expect a leg down below
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/24/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/24/2025
📈6075, 6095
📉6035, 6015
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/21/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/21/2025
📈6135-6145
📉6115-6105
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/20/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/20/2025
📈6155-6165
📉6135-6125
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*