Spy Outlook - Two Key Scenarios to Watch this WeekHello everyone, I’m theCafeTrader — hope you all had a great weekend.
Currently, SPY is sitting near the tail end of a supply zone around 569.57 . So far, it hasn’t shown strong conviction to push through this area, which likely reflects a lack of buying interest rather than heavy absorption by sellers.
In this post, I’ve outlined two scenarios for how you might approach trading SPY this week. As you’ve probably noticed, we’re sitting right in the middle of the broader range . I’ve marked out both light and heavy supply and demand zones — these will be critical for spotting clean entry opportunities.
Remember, liquidity moves markets , and we want to be on the right side of the move with strong entries.
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Scenario 1: Break Above Supply
If we open or gap above the current supply , and price holds that level , I can see SPY pushing up toward 584 , encountering some light supply on the way.
The play might look like this:
• SPY runs up to 576 , hesitates slightly (possible minor rejection),
• Finds a bidder and continues to 584 , where heavier selling pressure is likely waiting.
That would be the ideal short entry , with a little room for volatility, aiming for a move back down into a new demand zone (not yet formed or shown here).
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Scenario 2: Rejection and Roll Over
If we reject this supply zone and roll over , watch for price to cut through demand again and test the big buyers near 549.50 .
I’m especially interested in longs in that area. Even if price dips a bit further, there’s extreme demand at 540 , though I’d prefer to keep a tight stop so I can reposition quickly if needed.
From there, I think we could catch a strong bid and rally back up to 584 .
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Also, YouTube is coming soon with live breakdowns and deeper analysis — stay tuned!
MES1!
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/18/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/18/2025
📈5740. 5760
📉5680. 5660
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update March 18thYesterday, the plan for ES was straightforward: rally to ~5755 (adjusted for the June contract, previously 5703 on March) to back-test the 3-month megaphone breakdown from last Monday. The market followed through with an 88-point rally to that level before selling off.
As of now:
• 5720 (reclaimed) and 5698 are key supports
• Holding above keeps 5739 and a second test of 5754 in play
• If 5698 fails, look for selling pressure toward 5668
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/17/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/17/2025
📈5660. 5680
📉5600. 5580
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/14/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/14/2025
📈5600 5640
📉5560 5520
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update March 14thYesterday was all about 5558 in ES. After a drop to 5512 support, bulls needed to reclaim 5558 for upside. That level was tested twice before a sell-off, but once it cleared at 8:30 PM, buyers stepped in, pushing the market +20 points higher.
As of now:
• 5598, 5615 are the next upside levels as long as 5558 (now weaker) holds
• A break below 5558 opens the door for a drop to 5548, then 5533
ES Morning Update march 13thThis week has revolved around one key level in ES: 5568-72, which has been lost and reclaimed four times. At 11:20 PM yesterday, it triggered a long setup from an a textbook failed breakdown, leading to a 65+ point rally—and overnight, the same pattern repeated again.
As of now:
• No change—5568-72 remains weak support
• A 5599 reclaim sets up a move to 5616, 5643+
• If 5568 fails, expect further downside
ES Morning Update March 12thSince I prioritize Failed Breakdowns, my job is pretty simple—do absolutely nothing until we get one. This is how you keep an incredibly high wind rate, while easily scaling your accounts. Yesterday, the 5569-72 reclaim triggered the long setup, leading to a 70+ point rally to the 5608 target, where we’re still holding.
As of now:
• 5599, 5569-72 must hold through CPI volatility to keep 5645, 5668, and 5703 in play
• A failure below could open up more downside
ES Morning Update March 11thYesterday marked the largest red day in ES since the August 5 capitulation low. After deep sell-offs, squeezes typically come from my core setup: The Failed Breakdown—which triggered at 9:30 PM, now up +75 points, as outlined in the plan sent out yesterday evening.
As of now:
• Hold the runner
• Next targets: 5668, 5688, 5703
• If 5628 fails, expect a dip to 5609 first
ES Morning Update Mar 10thFor the last three days, 5720 has been the key battleground in ES—testing, bouncing, breaking below, squeezing, and repeating. After another bounce to the 5764+ target on Friday, we’re back under it again.
As of now:
• Same setup: 5720 must reclaim to target 5745, 5763
• If 5700 fails, expect a dip to 5676 first
ES Morning Update March 7thES has been revolving around 5757-63, acting as a key magnet. It held as support in the morning, leading to a rally toward 5822, but once it failed in the afternoon, the market sold off to the 5725 target. Now, NFP will dictate the next move.
As of now:
• 5763 must recover to target 5777, 5794, and 5822
• On an NFP flush, 5714 and 5700 must hold to prevent deeper downside
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/06/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/06/2025
📈5798 5818 5838
📉5759 5739 5719
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update March 6thES has been stuck in the same range for nearly four days, with 5858-5875 acting as resistance and 5763 holding as support. Yesterday followed the same pattern—I was looking for a rally to resistance, we got it, and then the market reversed back down.
As of now:
• 5777, 5763-57 are key supports
• Reclaiming 5798 sets up a move toward 5809, 5822+
• If 5757 fails, expect selling to 5725
ES Morning Update March 5thYesterday was the most volatile session in ES since August, with three 100+ point round trips. I was looking for a squeeze to 5875—we hit 5875 exactly.
As of now:
• Size down—volatility remains high
• 5798, 5784 are key supports
• A recovery of 5822 is needed to push toward 5858
• If 5784 fails, look for a drop to 5763, then new lows
S&P500 Index Goes 'Draconian', ahead of Roller Coaster ExplosionThe S&P 500's "roller coaster" behavior stems from its sensitivity to various economic, geopolitical, and market-specific factors that influence investor sentiment and corporate performance.
Economic Factors: Changes in interest rates, inflation, and Federal Reserve policies significantly impact the index. For example, rising interest rates can reduce corporate earnings and valuations, leading to market sell-offs. Conversely, expectations of rate cuts can boost optimism and drive rallies.
Investor Sentiment and Volatility: The S&P 500 is closely tied to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often called the "fear gauge." The VIX rises during market downturns as investors seek portfolio protection, amplifying price swings. This inverse correlation highlights how fear or optimism can drive sharp movements in the index.
Global Events: Geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, or pandemics can disrupt markets by creating uncertainty about future economic performance. Such events often lead to sudden spikes or drops in the S&P 500 as investors react to perceived risks.
Valuation Cycles: Overvaluation or bubbles in specific sectors can lead to corrections. For instance, high price-to-earnings ratios combined with slower economic growth can result in prolonged periods of stagnation or volatility.
These factors collectively create the "roller coaster" effect begun in the S&P 500.
// Life is like a roller coaster, as you don't know what's going to be thrown at you next, so all you can do is give us your best shot.
--
Best wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/04/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 03/04/2025
📈5840 5858 5875
📉5800 5780 5760
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update March 4thYesterday, the breakdown short idea I mentioned at 5938-42 triggered a 100-point sell-off in ES. Coming into today, as noted in the plan yesterday evening, losing 5850 would set up a sharp short trigger—and we just got it, dropping 25 points so far.
As of now:
• 5814, 5798 are next downside targets if selling continues
• To reverse and rally, 5857 must reclaim
ES Morning Update March 3rdLast Friday around 1 PM, a Failed Breakdown near 5860 was triggered after multiple tests of support. Once reclaimed, it set up a strong long, and holding over the weekend paid off—now +130 points from that entry.
As of now:
• At resistance, so nothing to do but hold and wait
• 5977, 5938-40 = key supports
• If momentum continues, next upside targets are 6004, 6015-20, and 6042
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/28/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/28/2025
📈5915
📉5860
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning Update Feb 28thYesterday marked the sixth consecutive red day in ES—the first time since April 2024. After breaking down from a two-day base yesterday around 2pm, 5875 was the sell target, and it hit exactly at close before forming a base overnight.
As of now:
• 5875-80 is support but weakening
• Holding above keeps 5913 and 5939 in play
• If the overnight low fails, expect a dip toward 5850 area, then 5835-32
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/27/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/27/2025
📈6016
📉5976
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/26/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/26/2025
📈6035
📉5955
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*