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MES1!

ES green lit - but is something bigger playing out?Last week ES gave us a welcomed sign that a local temporary bottom is in place as we are accepting higher prices. The week before last, price balanced in the mean (Red level) and we stayed skeptical and patient waiting for the appropriate signs to get long. Last Monday was the signal, as the day's price action completely engulfed the back-and-forth balancing of the week before. Wednesday we raised an order to buy a strong support level indicated by many clustered opens and closes. The order was filled on Thursday's open and I continue to hold for a full profit target. Closing early or adjusting stops or targets is NOT ALLOWED with my strategy. Ride or die. Looking into this week, bullish is the theme. Price is verifying levels appropriately and making healthy pushes higher. Closes above 3800 would be a very good sign for the bulls. Closes below 3680 will be problematic. Keep in mind we have lots of interest rate discussion this week from the ECB and others, but I tend not to read much into them. They usually are already priced into the market and serve as fuel to profit targets in my experience. On a bearish note, I would not be surprised to see a flash-crash style test of the 3600 low to form a beautiful textbook head-and-shoulders bottom here. It may stop me out of my current trade, but circumstances pending, may setup for much more profitable trading back to 4000+. I will not be trying to catch that bottom, but rather waiting for pullbacks on the (price action verified) path back up. Let’s see what happens! Exciting week ahead for this trader! Good luck!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by GrayTrader01
10/09/22 ES Weekly SummaryWith the downtrend intact, I’m not taking any long trades this week. Shorts only. I’ve marked some trades of interest in terms of level and price, not accurate on the time scale obviously. Price is still in the wedge and I’m mostly interested in shorting from the high side. Last Thursday we got a short entry at the US open that hit our price target (see the linked idea). I believe the downward pressure was influenced by news about “Nuclear Armageddon with Russia'' headlines that seem to be nothing more than a headline and price motivator. That being said - until we break the low of 3571.75, it would seem this selloff is now validating a much stronger bullish bounce (post coming soon about how I interpret price validation). I would not be surprised if the bottom starts to establish here. I would need to see daily closes outside the wedge to get aggressive about buying. For now I'm targeting shorts only and keeping my powder dry.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by GrayTrader01
ES (S&P 500) 2nd Half of Jul and Week of Jul 17th OutlookSo far the market hasn't shown it doesn't want to go lower. Now that we are in the 2nd Half of July and some Sell-side Liquidity has been taken, I anticipate a move up to rebalance price. For next week starting July 17th we have an ATR of 215 which could put us around the 4060-4080 range in terms of expansion. We have several gaps to fill above and some buy-side liquidity resting above. Key levels next week I can see are 3900, 3920, 3950, 3980, 4015/4030, 4050, 4080. For the rest of July if the bullish expansion is to continue we have an ATR ranging between 360-400. This could put as an expansion between 4085 and 4125. If price can break and stay above 3920 between now and the end of the month, then we may see the full expansion to the 4085-4125 area. Key events and data coming up for the market in the 2nd half of July: Tech & Bank Earnings, Housing Starts & Building Permits, Existing Home Sales & New Home Sales, Durable Goods, Fed Interest Rate Decision, GDP Growth Rate, Personal Spending and Income.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by thacoolbreeze
Using S&P to Identify RecessionInstead of waiting for NBER to officially declare the confirmation of recession, an alternative way to identify is using the U.S. indices quarterly chart, especially the S&P. Typically, economists call a recession when GDP has declined for two consecutive quarters. A committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is responsible for officially declaring when recessions start and end. Why I favour S&P over Dow Jones and Nasdaq? It has 500 companies from the largest to the smallest and from various industries. It is commonly use to benchmark for stock portfolio performance in America, a much wider and broader measurement. Whereas Nasdaq is Tech heavy and Dow Jones with too limited stocks of 30. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by konhow
SPY/SPX/ES/MES Elliot Wave AnalysisLooks like a big rally shaping up to end the month of May, but June should be a full-on bear fest, at least to start the month. Major Wave 1 down should end in the 3200 - 3500 zone. Likely, we'll rebound from there into the Fall of 2022. Major Wave 3 will likely project down to the 1500 zone. Major Wave 5 will likely end in late Spring 2023 with target projections somewhere between 1500 - 1200 with a very real possibility of undercutting the 2009 low @ 666. If we do undercut 666, supercycle Wave 5 up should begin, lasting 8.6 years into 2032 and reaching 50k to 100k + on the Dow Industrials. After that, it's possible the whole thing drops to zero and the shithouse goes up in flames. Credit to Dan E. for his wave analysis and Elliot Wave International CME_MINI:ES1! Side note - When things get super volatile, I like to trade the mini ES. Trades great with excellent liquidity.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by imdp
SP500 - Turn ahead, or further flush?Orange Fork: Price reached the centerline and flushed through it. Now fighting against a further stretch. A close above the yellow horizontal would indicate, that price reached it's P3-Swing (3?). Red Fork: Speed fork, which is a measure if the speed will increase or not. Close The close above the red centerline tells me, price is slowing down, because of no further downside action, away from this red CL. From where price is now, chance up or down are 50&50. My personal assumption? I have no frkn clue, I just follow the marekt which is short, until the break of the yellow horizontal line.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
SP500 to 4200 by 4/20When twitter starts posting VIX charts, you know its time to buckle up for them to scream "GolDen AgE oF AsSeT BubBlEs" when the market, against all the social media narratives, rips shorts to shreds. "ArCHEgOs iS goNnA buRsT tHiS BuBBle" -> /es runs to 4k+ instantly No, this is not the 2001 Tech Bubble. 4104 is top line resistance. If hit, we'll have a small pullback (4050-4060 floor). I estimate the pullback to last approx till 4/14-4/15. Option expiration and after -> Insane melt-up coming. Never short a dull market. This is not financial advice.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by parxed