Short term analysis for ES or MESCME_MINI:ES1! Broke out a 1 month flag on May 6th (in white). This pushed us to all time highs and now the spot buyers want to get over for next week is the 3 month megaphone resistance at 5349 area (in green). Get above there and buyers can push for 5374. If sellers want to dip us this upcoming week, it can start on the fail of 5302. which will target 5274 area.
now realize, it has been one hell of a run, coming off 10 straight greed days. Consolidation between 5302-5349 is ideal for Monday in my opinion. Only time will tell!
MES1!
When ES reaches ATH, it seems hard to speculate DOL1) Looking at it during London Session
I was expecting the Daily Candle to close out the "FVG".
Then Pull back and go Higher.
2) Look at it now, price has done that. With the many +OB below.
I am expecting price to retrace.
I usually like to reference to DXY. DXY has REH which price is very near now.
3) With news coming at 10am, I am not sure of the Bias.
Perhaps retrace to a Lower OB before trampoline higher on a Leap year before relaxing.
Nasdaq-100 Index Futures. Bearish Channel In DevelopmentAI-related companies lost $190 billion in stock market value late on Tuesday after Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOG and Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD delivered quarterly results that failed to impress investors who had sent their stocks soaring.
The selloff following the tech giants' reports after the bell underscored investors' elevated expectations following an AI-fueled stock market rally in recent months that propelled their shares to record highs with the promise of incorporating the technology across the corporate landscape.
Alphabet dropped 5.6% after the Google-parent's December-quarter ad revenue missed expectations.
Alphabet also said its spending on data centers to support its AI plans would jump this year, highlighting the costs of its fierce competition against AI rival Microsoft.
While Google Cloud revenue growth slightly topped Wall Street targets, boosted by interest in AI, Microsoft's Azure grew faster.
Microsoft beat analyst estimates for quarterly revenue as new AI features helped attract customers to its cloud and Windows services. However, its stock fell 0.7% in extended trade after briefly hitting an intra-day record high earlier on Tuesday.
Optimism about AI pushed Microsoft's stock market value above $3 trillion this month, eclipsing Apple NASDAQ:AAPL .
Chipmaker Advanced Micro tumbled 6% after its forecast for first-quarter revenue missed estimates, even as it projected strong sales for its AI processors.
Shares of Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , which have surged 27% in January after more than tripling last year on AI optimism, also gave back some of those gain in extended trade, last down over 2%.
Server maker Super Micro Computer NASDAQ:SMCI , another company that has benefited from AI-related demand, dropped over 3%. Earlier on Tuesday, it had climbed to a record high after delivering amazing quarterly results the day before.
The main technical graph for Nasdaq-100 Micro E-Mini Futures CME_MINI:MNQ1! illustrates that bearish channel is in development in this time, where 17800 points is the upper (resistance) side and 17000 points level becomes attractive to watch.
3-months mid-term VIX Futures spread (the difference between front, February, 2024 VIX Futures contract CBOE:VXG2024 and May, 2024 VIX Futures contract CBOE:VXK2024 that is 3 months ahead) still is in Bearish mode, saying there's no panic yet on the streets.
50/200-hours MACD says btw, bearish sentiment becomes more active.
ES range for 14-Nov [ETH Update]Capitalize on the around-the-clock liquidity of E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES), and take advantage of one of the most efficient and cost-effective ways to gain market exposure to the S&P 500 Index, a broad-based, capitalization-weighted index that tracks 500 of the largest companies of the US economy and a key indicator of the stock market’s health. With ES futures, you can take positions on S&P 500 performance electronically.
ES range for 06-Nov [RTH Update]Capitalize on the around-the-clock liquidity of E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES), and take advantage of one of the most efficient and cost-effective ways to gain market exposure to the S&P 500 Index, a broad-based, capitalization-weighted index that tracks 500 of the largest companies of the US economy and a key indicator of the stock market’s health. With ES futures, you can take positions on S&P 500 performance electronically.
ES/MES range for 06-Nov [European Session Update]Capitalize on the around-the-clock liquidity of E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES), and take advantage of one of the most efficient and cost-effective ways to gain market exposure to the S&P 500 Index, a broad-based, capitalization-weighted index that tracks 500 of the largest companies of the US economy and a key indicator of the stock market’s health. With ES futures, you can take positions on S&P 500 performance electronically.
ES/MES range for 06-NovES/MES range for 06-Nov
Capitalize on the around-the-clock liquidity of E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES), and take advantage of one of the most efficient and cost-effective ways to gain market exposure to the S&P 500 Index, a broad-based, capitalization-weighted index that tracks 500 of the largest companies of the US economy and a key indicator of the stock market’s health. With ES futures, you can take positions on S&P 500 performance electronically.
Anatomy of an MES day trade short, Target reachedMES consolidated early after the bell creating a really visible and tradable opening range. After M2K tipped its hand and showed clear weakness, a trade in MES lower became probable. Following the Trinity Trading setup we find a great entry with very low risk. This turned into a gorgeous easy hold for 3.89 R with plenty more on that run.
ES1! SPX500USD 2023 JUNE 12 WEEKES1! SPX500USD 2023 JUNE 12 WEEK
Price broke 4303. If this becomes support,
next target level will likely be 4584.
Scenario Planning:
1) Long on support at 4303
2) If false break, short on rejection at recent high / lower
high.
Note:
Longer Term: 4150 need to hold as support in order for
long trend to remain intact.
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar close off high = NTC weakness
Daily: Low(er) vol up bar S>D close off high = NTC weakness
*NTC = Non Trend Changing
Price reaction levels:
Short = Test and Reject | Long = Test and Accept
4584-4525 4303 4150
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
*For educational purpose only.
ES1! Intraday levelsES1! 65m: Intraday levels, VPOC 4139.50, Inside bar on sessions for 1D-4D and could remain in range for acute horizons; Earnings and VOL levels in consideration; Weak breadth on daily internals// KLs: 4176, 4164, 4156.50, 4147, 4117.75, 4139.50, 4110.75, 4098.75// Price at time of publish: 4154.25// Bias: Neutral
Opening (Margin): /MES May 19th 3600/4260 Short Strangle... for a 53.75 credit.
Comments: Now that the FOMC rate decision is in the rear view mirror ... . 2.69 ($268.75, to be exact) max on buying power effect of around 9.00. 29.9% ROC at max as a function of buying power effect; 14.9% at 50% max. Will look to adjust on side test or if a side approaches worthless.
Opening (Margin): /MES April 28th 3670/4090 Short Strangle... for a 93.75 ($468.75) credit.
Comments: Going with something more straightforward here and a little bit less "high maintenance" than my continuous delta hedging setup with short straddles. Selling the 25 delta's on both sides. $468.75 max on buying power effect of $892.00; 52.6% ROC at max as a function of buying power effect; 26.3% at 50% max.
Opening (Margin): /MES April 21st 3960 Short Straddle... for a 225.00 ($1135.00 max) credit.
Comments: The 30-day IV isn't as high as I would like at 20.5, nor is the IVR (11.5%), but you can't always have everything. Will look to make additive adjustments first to get to the size of position I want and then look to just manage sides to delta balance. Starting out skewed just a smidge short here, but I'll naturally adjust if the market has other ideas on its mind.
I'm generally looking to get 25% of total credits collected (25% of $1135.00 would be $283.75 in profit), but won't be hesitant to take quick profit and then re-establish.
Opening (Margin): /MES April 21st 3990 Short Straddle... for a 234.00 credit.
Comments: Re-establishing here with 53 days until expiry. $1170 max on buying power of $1028; 114% ROC as a function of buying power effect; 28.5% at 25% max. 3756/4224 break evens.
As before, will look to first add to get to the size of position I want, then do additive, subtractive, and rolling adjustments at intervals to keep the setup from getting too directional.
Opening (Margin): /MES April 21st 4010 Short Straddle... for a 242.75 credit.
Comments: Ask (for higher IV) and you shall receive ... . 3767.25/4254.75 break evens on buying power effect of less than the credit received. Although I look for 25% max out of short straddles, I won't hesitate to take it off in profit early, since this is a tad longer dated than I like to start out with (56 days until expiry).
Opening (Margin): /MES March 31st 4000/4330 Short Strangle... for an 81.75 credit.
Comments: After closing out my last setup in profit, reentering anew, selling the 26 delta on both sides to get about 50% of the buying power effect of the setup in credit. I'm staying with the March 31st here, as the April expiry is a bit too far out in time yet. 81.75 credit (408.75 max) on BPE of 940.00 or so; 43.5% ROC at max; 21.7% at 50% max.
As before, I'll look to do additive delta adjustments at intervals to keep the delta/theta ratio <1.0.
Opening (Margin): /MES 3910/4320 Short Strangle... for an 86.50 credit.
Comments: And ... back into /MES in the expiry nearest 45 DTE. Selling the 24 delta strikes on both sides to get something approaching 50% ROC as a function of buying power effect. 432.50 max on buying power effect of 879.92, 49.2% ROC at max as a function of buying power effect; 24.6% at 50% max.
Will generally look to make adjustments to the setup when delta/theta ratio skews out to >1.0.