FB (META), What is going on?Stocks fall one after another !
We Saw a considerable decline in FB (Meta) Stoc k after earning report after hours of last trading session. What is happening for FB (Meta) in terms of Elliott waves?
FB (META), has likely completed a primary degree ascending cycle started on 4th Sept 2012 at 17.55 USD . This cycle took 9 years to be completed therefore, we can imagine how boring will be the correction phase before completion !
If true , FB (META) has started a correction decline form ATH (384.33) down to Retracement levels with today's pre-market price around 0.382 level.
Although 0.382 retracement is also possible for wave 2s , I give very low possibility to bounce back from this level according to timing and corrective patterns.
Retracement down to 200 , 157 and even 96 USD corresponding to 0.5 , 0.618 Golden Ration and 0.786 Retracement levels is very possible, I tried to show the probability of each possible Retracement with thickness of arrows with the thickest to be the most probable ( As I suppose ) and vice versa.
After completion of this primary degree wave 2 , there will be a huge up going wave which is primary degree wave 3 . This wave 3 will push the price up to at least 700 USD and even higher ( Very good news for long term investors ) depending on at which retracement level this boring correction phase ends. It is too soon to talk about this target we can update our targets in next years !
Please note this is a very long term prediction so, there will be lots of ups and downs and fluctuations in our path. What is happening on FB (META) is more than likely similar to whats happened for ETSY, SHOPIFY, SQ and many others in the market.
As I showed on the chart, this is what I see as the most probable scenario which means there are more optimistic scenarios. Mots probable more optimistic scenario is that FB ( META) is just correcting the wave cycle labeled as wave (5). As far as the stock is trading above 170 USD, this scenario is valid.
Hope this analysis to be helpful and wish you all the best.
Meta
Name Your Stocks! I’ll Analyze the Most Voted Picks!Hello readers,
Let’s Do It Again! Name Your Top 3 Stocks for a Technical Breakdown!
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🔹 Drop three stocks you’re most interested in.
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Let’s see what the TradingView community is watching – drop your picks below and let’s try this!
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Meta: Breakout!META has successfully broken out of its previous consolidation, extending a powerful uptrend. This nearly “correction-free” rally has once again pushed the stock to new record highs, which aligns perfectly with our primary expectation of further gains during the larger green wave . However, given the extent of this advance, META remains vulnerable to pullbacks. Thus, we assign a 33% probability to an immediate transition into a wave alt. correction, which would be triggered by a drop below the $547.57 support.
Meta's Q3 Financial Results | Growth and the Future of AI & AR Meta's Q3 Earnings: AI Investments Shape the Future of Engagement and Monetization
Last week, Meta shared its Q3 earnings, revealing a familiar trend: while the results were strong, rising AI investments cast a shadow. With over 3.2 billion daily users across Meta’s apps, the company alongside Google and YouTube is in a prime position to bring AI into the mainstream. However, this shift could potentially disrupt the creator economy as we know it
So, how will this affect the future of Meta’s apps?
Did you know META is 222% up since our first analysis ?
Let’s break down the quarter and explore the latest updates
Today’s Highlights
- Overview of Meta Q3 FY24
- Recent business highlights
- Key quotes from the earnings call
- The potential decline of the creator economy
1. Meta Q3 FY24 Overview
Meta operates within two main segments
FoA: Family of Apps (Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp)
RL: Reality Labs (virtual reality hardware and software)
Daily Active People in FoA grew by 5% year over year, reaching 3.29 billion. However, user growth has slowed, with Meta adding 20 million daily users in Q3 2024 down from 50 million earlier in 2024.
Meta’s reach now extends to over half of the global population aged 15 to 80, meaning future growth will hinge more on engagement and ad efficiency than adding new users.
Key Insights from Zuckerberg:
-Facebook: Positive engagement trends among Gen Z in the U.S.
-Instagram: Sustains “strong” growth globally.
-WhatsApp: Now surpasses 2 billion calls daily.
-Meta AI: 500 million monthly active users.
-Threads: 275 million monthly active users, up from 200 million in Q2, with notable growth in regions like the U.S., Taiwan, and Japan (currently not monetized and unlikely to drive significant revenue by 2025).
Advertising Performance:
- Ad impressions grew 7% year-over-year (compared to 10% in Q2).
- Average ad price increased by 11% year-over-year (10% in Q2).
- Average revenue per user grew by 12% year-over-year, reaching $12.29 (compared to Snap at $3.10 and Reddit at $3.58).
- Despite some critics suggesting potential inflation due to bot activity, ARPU growth points to real ad value; fake users can’t generate revenue.
Financials
- Revenue rose 19% year-over-year to $40.6 billion.
- FoA saw a 19% increase, reaching $40.3 billion.
- RL grew by 29% to $0.3 billion.
- Gross margin was 82% (-1pp Y/Y, +1pp Q/Q).
- Operating margin stood at 43% (+2pp Y/Y, +5pp Q/Q).
- FoA operating profit was $21.8 billion (54% margin, +2pp Y/Y).
- RL reported an operating loss of $4.4 billion (down slightly from $4.5 billion in Q2).
- EPS rose by 37% year-over-year to $6.03.
Cash Flow
- Operating cash flow was $24.7 billion (61% margin, +1pp Y/Y).
- Free cash flow was $15.5 billion (38% margin, -2pp Y/Y).
Balance Sheet
- Cash and marketable securities totaled $71 billion
- Long-term debt was $29 billion
Guidance:
- Q4 FY24 revenue is forecasted at $46.5 billion in the mid-range
- FY24 expenses estimated at $96-$98 billion (previously $96-$99 billion)
- FY24 Capex is expected to be $38-40 billion (previously $37-$40 billion)
Summary Analysis
Revenue growth was 20% in constant currency (compared to 23% in Q2), with ad revenue growth driven by increased ad prices. Strong demand for ads continued, largely due to higher ad performance, especially in online commerce, healthcare, and entertainment. Geographically, North America and Europe led growth at 21%, while Asia slowed from 28% to 15%.
Reality Labs’ revenue rose 29%, mainly from hardware sales, though the division continues to post significant losses. As shown in the visuals, FoA operating profit reached an all-time high, while RL’s losses remain around $4 billion quarterly.
Headcount increased by 9% year-over-year to 72,404, signaling a return to hiring, particularly in priority areas such as monetization, infrastructure, Reality Labs, and generative AI.
Stock buybacks amounted to nearly $9 billion in Q3, up from $6 billion in Q2, though lower than the $15 billion in Q1. Management’s confidence in Meta’s stock remains strong, with an additional $1.3 billion paid in dividends.
Capital expenditures climbed by 36% to $9.2 billion compared to $8.5 billion in Q2, with guidance staying on track. Management anticipates “significant acceleration in infrastructure expenses” for 2025, which will affect both the cost of revenue and R&D expenses.
Despite heavy AI spending, Meta remains highly profitable, generating nearly $52 billion in free cash flow over the past 12 months—just shy of Alphabet’s $56 billion over the same period.
Q4 FY24 revenue guidance points to deceleration, with mid-range growth forecasted at 16%.
Let’s examine Meta’s investments and market position further.
2. Recent Business Highlights
Meta Orion
Meta's Orion AR glasses mark an ambitious step towards a future beyond smartphones, showcasing the potential of augmented reality (AR):
-Prototype Status: Orion is a high-tech AR prototype, equipped with advanced features, but high production costs keep it out of reach for consumers.
-Advanced AR Display: Using Micro LED projectors and silicon carbide lenses, Orion offers a broad field of view with sharper visuals than most current AR devices.
-Interactive AI Integration: With Meta's generative AI, Orion enables users to interact with virtual elements, identify real-world objects, and create immediate solutions, such as recipes.
-Complex Hardware: Orion relies on a neural wristband for control and a wireless compute puck, creating a multi-part system.
-High Cost & Limited Production: With a price tag estimated at $10,000, Orion isn’t ready for mass production. Meta has produced around 1,000 units for demonstrations and internal testing.
- Future Vision: Meta aims to release a consumer-friendly AR device within a few years, working toward a slimmer, more affordable model that could rival smartphone prices.
Orion reflects Meta's goal to lead the next wave of computing, though significant technological and cost hurdles remain.
Timing and Competitive Landscape**: Zuckerberg’s reveal of Orion may aim to justify Reality Labs' annual $16-20 billion operating loss to shareholders and gather feedback. Meanwhile, Apple has initiated its “Atlas” project to explore the smart glasses market, indicating potential plans to shift focus from the high-end $3,500 Vision Pro VR headset.
How AI Is Already Impacting Meta
Beyond future-oriented projects like Orion, Meta’s AI advancements are actively enhancing its core business in two strategic areas: engagement and monetization.
-Engagement: Meta's recommendation engine uses AI to tailor feeds with highly relevant video content, keeping users engaged. AI-driven prediction systems further increase app usage by showing content that maximizes interaction.
-Monetization: AI boosts ad efficiency across the entire lifecycle—from creation to performance tracking. Generative AI assists with ad copy, images, and video, while advanced models analyze user behavior to serve targeted ads, improving conversion rates incrementally.
-Meta AI Studio: This platform allows developers to create, train, and deploy custom AI models within Meta’s ecosystem. By enabling personalized assistants, interactive AI, and AR applications, Meta seeks to drive new consumer apps and maximize ad potential across its platforms.
Market Share
Meta’s advertising revenue hit $39.9 billion in Q3, reaching 81% of Google’s search revenue, up from 76% last year. Meta’s ad revenue is expanding at the same rate as Amazon’s, despite Meta’s larger base, signaling regained market share and effective adaptation to the post-ATT environment.
3. Key Quotes from the Earnings Call
CEO Mark Zuckerberg
- On AI and the Family of Apps: “Improvements to our AI-driven feed and video recommendations have led to an 8% increase in time spent on Facebook and a 6% increase on Instagram this year alone. More than a million advertisers used our GenAI tools to create over 15 million ads last month, and we estimate businesses using Image Generation are seeing a 7% conversion lift.”
-On Llama 4: “We're training the Llama 4 models on a cluster larger than 100,000 H100s, more extensive than anything reported elsewhere.”
-On RayBan Meta Glasses: “Glasses are the ideal AI form factor as they let your AI see, hear, and communicate with you. Demand remains strong, with the new clear edition selling out quickly.”
-On Meta AI: “We’re on track for Meta AI to become the world’s most used AI assistant by year-end, with popular uses including information gathering, task assistance, and content exploration.”
CFO Susan Li
-On Recommendations: “Inspired by scaling laws observed in large language models, we’ve developed new ranking architectures for Facebook video that enhance relevance and increase watch time”
-On Capital Allocation: “We’re optimistic about our opportunities and believe that investing now in infrastructure and talent will accelerate progress and returns.”
4. The Potential Decline of the Creator Economy
Facebook and Instagram have evolved from social networks to content networks, benefiting creators with wide-reaching platforms. However, this era may be coming to a close.
-AI-Generated Content: Zuckerberg shared plans to introduce AI-generated and AI-summarized content on Facebook, Instagram, and potentially Threads, gradually shifting away from creator-generated content as the primary engagement driver.
-Impact on Creators: As AI learns to identify and generate engaging content, creators could struggle to compete, with algorithms delivering exactly what audiences want. Over time, creators may face a landscape where AI determines the most engaging posts, relegating them to the sidelines in a world increasingly powered by self-generating content.
-Why It Matters: Platforms like YouTube share 55% of ad revenue with creators, but Meta does not, meaning that an AI-driven shift isn’t primarily about cost-cutting. Instead, it allows for more integrated ad placements within algorithmic feeds, potentially boosting impressions and conversions.
Although AI generated feeds may sound dystopian, current high engagement accounts already use tactics to maximize engagement, meaning the shift to AI might go largely unnoticed by audiences.
META: trend structure is approaching important resistance zoneMeta is approaching important resistance zone both in terms of macro (from 2022 lows) and mid-term (since Apr 2024 lows): 700-760 level.
Until price is bellow 760 level, my operative scenario is to prepare for at least mid-term topping action with following unfold of larger correction. Macro support levels for this potential correction are at 520-420.
From the long-term investing perspective it looks reasonable to consider hedging long-term holdings. From swing-trading perspective this resistance levels might present good risk-reward opportunity in coming weeks.
From macro-perspective, levels of 520-420 are important zone to watch for future supporting action if mid-term correction materializes.
Until price is holding above 420, macro uptrend since 2022 lows looks intact and assumes higher levels (at 1000-1300 macro resistance) in years to come.
As an alternative mid-term scenario, I might also consider price trying to reach higher resistance levels, around 800-810, before starting larger degree correction towards macro support zone.
If price moves beyond 810 level and will be able to sustain further advance afterwards, or in macro-perspective: fall below 420 level, suggested mid-term and macro structures needs to be revised.
Thank you for your attention and wishing the best to your investing and trading in 2025!
Meta Platforms - The Breakout Rally To $1.000!Meta Platforms ( NASDAQ:META ) is about to break out:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Ever since Meta Platforms - formerly known as Facebook - was listed on the Nasdaq, this stock has been creating new all time highs over and over again. Also over the past couple of months, momentum was pretty strong and a triangle breakout seems inevitable.
Levels to watch: $650, $1.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Just In: $META Up 3% Premarket Trading Today After Q4 Beat.In a surprising turn of event, shares of Microsoft fell in Europe on Thursday after it issued a downbeat forecast for its cloud business, while Facebook parent Meta shares ( NASDAQ:META ) rose after beating expectations, as investors scrutinised the companies' spending on artificial intelligence.
Microsoft shares traded down 4.5% on the Frankfurt market, having fallen a similar amount in after-hours trading on Wednesday and finishing the regular session down 1.1%.
Meta shares however, opened up 2.5% in Germany, having risen 2.1% after the closing bell and ending the regular session up 0.3%.
Days after Chinese upstart DeepSeek revealed a breakthrough in cheap AI computing that shook the U.S. technology industry, the chief executives of Microsoft and Meta defended massive spending that they said was key to staying competitive in the new field.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said Wednesday’s that the rapid rise of competitors from China has only strengthened the tech giant’s commitment to its AI ambitions.
The CEO said it’s too early to know how growing competition from China could impact its future investments. Meta reiterated its forecast of $60 billion to $65 billion in capital expenditures this year.
Technical Outlook
as of the time of writing, NASDAQ:META shares is up 2.81% in Thursday's premarket session. NASDAQ:META closed Wednesday's session with the overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 71.87. however, NASDAQ:META doesnt seem to be cooling off any moment with the shares moving above key MA this only solidifies the fact that NASDAQ:META could bridged the $700 pivot point. However, in the case of a drawback, NASDAQ:META 's should find support in the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement point a level that aligns with the $640 price action.
$15 to $53 $DGNX +250% verticalForget earnings, if you wanted to gamble today NASDAQ:DGNX was your stock with 250% vertical today
Not these 3% movers NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:MSFT 😅
Small float + FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) + market orders and you get tripled stock.
Not many people even heard about it but NASDAQ:DGNX was the wildest move in the entire stock market today.
META Platforms Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t bought META before the rally:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of META Platforms prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 660usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-2-21,
for a premium of approximately $32.20.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
US100 Trade LogUS100 analysis: Three "buy zones" identified for potential entries with distinct risk levels.
1. "Zone 1" : Near the "4H Kijun" and prior weak high, aiming for short-term rebound with controlled risk.
2. "Zone 2" : Aligns with deeper "4H FVG" support. This setup offers a higher conviction for a reversal targeting the mid-range.
3. "Zone 3" : Major buy zone with strong confluence at the "PML" and "1H FVG" . Willing to risk 2% for a potential return of up to 10%, depending on upcoming earnings.
Each zone represents escalating risk-reward setups, ensuring precise risk management across macro support structures. Consider macro headwinds and earnings season's volatility.
SHORT META Ahead of Earnings Report Based on Insider Selling"Meta Platforms Insider Sold Shares Worth $22,132,922"
Mark Zuckerberg, 10% Owner, Director, Chair of Board and Chief Executive Officer, on January 15, 2025, sold 35,921 shares in [eta Platforms. Following the Form 4 filing with the SEC, Zuckerberg has control over a total of 353,696 shares of the company, with 353,696 controlled indirectly.
Jennifer Newstead, Chief Legal Officer of Meta Platforms sold 905 shares of Class A Common Stock on January 14, 2025, at a price of $604.54 per share, totaling $547,108. Following the transaction, Newstead directly owns 31,105 shares of Meta Platforms.
Jennifer Newstead, Chief Legal Officer of Meta Platforms, sold 905 shares of Class A Common Stock on January 21, 2025, at a price of $618.0 per share, totaling $559,290. Following the transaction, Newstead directly owns 30,200 shares of Meta Platforms.
The sales were conducted under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted on November 30, 2023.
Olivan Javier, Chief Operating Officer of Meta Platforms, sold 413 shares of Class A Common Stock on January 21, 2025, at a price of $618.0 per share, totaling $255,234. Following the transaction, Javier directly owns 16,275 shares and indirectly owns 95,287 shares through various entities.
The sale was conducted under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted on August 30, 2023.
Huge Earnings and Economic Surprises Ahead!🚨 Weekly Preview: Big Earnings and Economic News 🚨
Get ready for an action-packed week as we dive into major corporate earnings reports and crucial economic updates! 📊💼
🔍 Earnings Highlights:
Tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla are set to release their quarterly results.
Also, goliaths such as Visa, Mastercard, ASML and more!
📈 Economic Indicators to Watch:
Inflation rates 📉
GDP Growth 📊
Federal Reserve policy decisions 💵
Stay tuned for in-depth analysis and insights on how these events could shape market trends and investor sentiment. Don't miss out on the key information that could impact your financial decisions! 📅📢
META Bullish Momentum – Targeting $639!🚀 META Bullish Momentum – Targeting $639! 🚀
📊 Trade Setup:
Take Profit 1: $610.00
Take Profit 2: $639.00 (previous high)
Stop Loss: $578.92 (below demand zone and channel support)
📈 Analysis:
META has been trading in a strong uptrend channel for the past 3 months, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. With a positive opening on the first trading day of 2025 , the stock has already seen a +2% increase , reflecting s trong bullish sentiment.
The price is now approaching key resistance levels at $610 and the previous high at $639. A breakout above these levels could drive prices even higher, confirming the continuation of the uptrend.
🎯 Targets:
$610.00: Short-term resistance
$639.00: Previous high and key breakout zone
🔹 Risk Management:
Stop loss placed at $578.92 , just below the demand zone and channel support, ensuring controlled risk if the trend reverses.
⚡ What do you think about META’s bullish momentum? Will it break above $639? Drop your thoughts below! ⚡
Meta and Bitcoin BINANCE:BTCUSDT
If we compare just yearly timeframes Meta and Btc
Meta drop and absorb previews 6 years move. 77% from top.
Btc 77% from top.
When everyone called Meta is dead now its 59% move.
59% on BTC its around 26300$.
Yearly Timeframe.
I’m not waiting BTC over 36K this year. All global analysis for BTC 2023 posted.
Crypto correlate with Stocks almost in every single move but with lag of time.
PHUN Long Trade Expecting Continuation PHUN is in the advertizing business specializing in targeting consumers with smart filterning of
the ads tailored to their websurfing and data history. That said, it competes with Google,
Facebook, Snapchat and all the rest. it is far more volatile than them as a small cap company.
The trade is in capturing the volatility.
On a 120-minute chart, PHU was in a state of dormancy and almost no range in late 2023
but awoke in the current year. The all-the-highs are in the 80 range back in 2022. From the
highs of January to the recent low on March 1st, PHUN dropped more than 70% in 40 days or so.
On the chart, it has broken out of deep undervalued territory and is not situated near the
anchored mean VWAP and is at the POC line of the volume profile. It traded nearly 70
million shares about 20X the running average. I see this as an opportunity for a long
trade at or near the VWAP where institutionally based traders are likely to trade. The
volume and volatility make this obvious. A similar combination of volume and volatility last
occurred about January 16 and propelled the price more than 250% in 4 days. While a similar
move should not be expected, even 50% in 4 days is an excellent return for the risk taken.
I will set a stop loss of 10% for this volatile stock while targeting 18 and 22 from the VWAP
band lines on the chart.
Meta is lining up for MAJOR upside thanks to possibly TikTok!TECHNICAL:
We have a strong W Formation forming on Meta.
We just need the price to break above the Neckline. Other indicators show Price is above the 20MA and the 200MA and things fundamentally are looking very strong for META going into 2025.
So first target will be at $796.97.
As Zuck is making major changes to make them more in line with X's policies and cutting some red tape.
FUNDAMENTAL RANT:
The whole TikTok ban and its quick comeback seem like a setup. On the same day TikTok got banned, Facebook conveniently made a TikTok account and told people to link their accounts. Oh, and guess what? Some senators just happened to buy Meta shares right before the ban.
Trump, who originally banned TikTok back in 2020, made a big deal about bringing it back, acting like a hero and making it all about himself.
I wouldn't be surprised if Meta announces a partnership with TikTok’s CEO, Mr. Chou, and possibly grab a 50% stake in TikTok to ease concerns about cybersecurity in the U.S. Meanwhile, Americans are jumping to Red Note— voluntarily giving their information away and because they are tired of the Oligarchy.