Riding Wave 5: Is $700 Just Around the Corner?Hey Realistic Traders, Will META Bullish Bias Continue ? Let’s Dive In....
In the Daily timeframe, META rebounded above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, marking the completion of wave 4. Within this wave, a Descending broadening wedge pattern was formed. Recently the price has broken out of the pattern. This breakout was further confirmed by a bullish MACD crossover, signaling increasing momentum and strengthening the case for a continued upward move.
Based on these technical signals, I foresee a potential upward movement toward the first target at $638. After reaching this level, a minor pullback is likely before the rally continues toward a new high at $700.
This outlook remains valid as long as the price holds above the stop-loss level at 550.00.
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Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on META.
Meta
Why booze stocks are so cheap (part 1002)This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research—sign up for their Substack to receive the latest market insights straight to your inbox.
Now, I do not think Brown Forman will return to 32x earnings anytime soon — if ever — but if you even half the implied return from multiple expansion you still have plenty of upside.
Ditto Remy — I do not love Remy because Cognac, for lack of a better term, is screwed. But there’s still obviously value there and it trades on a very depressed multiple — what’s to say the family has had enough and finds a buyer?
Finally, Diageo. Less upside but more certainty — Guinness sells very well among Gen Z while their spirits portfolio continues to ebb along, if only growth in the low single digits.
Valuations always tend to normalise, especially for companies which make staples. Paying 30x earnings was always too much — I used to look at Brown-Forman enviously, and wish it were cheaper. Well, now it is! And nobody likes it. On chart is a couple of headlines from Barron’s.
I love to go counter-consensus to the media, because usually that’s a sign of peak pessimism. On chart are some headlines about Meta when everyone hated the stock in 2022/2023.
Obviously, the booze stocks are not Meta — Meta is a cash flow machine! Zuck wears a gold chain! Zuck would like us to know he is a Cool Guy!
But still — price drives narrative. Everyone was dissing Meta in 2022 (and I felt like an idiot buying it), now they love it. Ditto booze stocks. People aren’t going to stop drinking. That’s it. That’s the thesis.
New highs area +$1,000/share unlocked for NasdaqSeems like 2 months of sideways downtrending (since mid December) is over for Nasdaq.
Unless any surprise political shock news come out (we all know that can be a challenge with Trump) we could see Nasdaq reach $23,000 per share area in drawn upcoming green period.
This would also reflect directly on upward momentum for several bluechip stocks:
Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL
Microsoft Corporation NASDAQ:MSFT
Amazon.com Inc. NASDAQ:AMZN
Alphabet Inc. NASDAQ:GOOGL
Meta Platforms Inc. NASDAQ:META
NVIDIA Corporation NASDAQ:NVDA
Tesla Inc. NASDAQ:TSLA
Intel Corporation NASDAQ:INTC
$Meta and U.S equity Bull Run Almost Finished? Was just having a little fun before bed and brainstorming on the NASDAQ:META chart. Our darling as of late. I love trying to find similarities and patterns between macro swings and cycles. Human psychology and business cycles have a way of repeating themselves pretty often. As they say, history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.
This recent melt up reminds a lot of the price action NASDAQ:META saw in 2021-2022. RSI overbought both times, currently approaching the 2.618 fib when connecting them to major high and low points. Decreasing volume on the moves up.
There's a lot of other data to support a bear market may be on the horizon:
Weak housing data/stocks (I do see some outlier stocks in the housing sector).
The yield curve un-inversion which typically precedes major bear markets 6-12 months after un-inversion.
The dollar seems to want to keep going higher. However it has shown a lot of weakness here lately which could help fuel the rest of the bull market.
The unwinding of the Japanese Yen carry trade has seemed to play a big factor in U.S equities as of late. Every time the BOJ hikes interest rates, a lot of U.S. equities see pretty sizable bearish volatility shortly after.
Being the darling that NASDAQ:META has become, once this trend line breaks it will be a signal that everyone should be taking note of in my opinion. I think the risk of a bear market increases dramatically. Maybe we get a shallow or 2022 style bear market next year and continue to make one last lag into new highs in 2027.
Here are some ideas that could support that theory:
China seems to be coming out of a depression-style bear market and is beginning to inject liquidity into their economy. This could help give U.S. equities a little more juice to run higher for longer
chips could make a major comeback and fuel SPY/QQQ higher for longer.
Names like Google, Tesla and Amazon can continue to show strength and we could see a rotation into them.
Maybe we get some more significant quantum breakthroughs with the help of AI.
These are things to keep in mind, but I think the probabilities of this this bull market we've enjoyed since 2008 is A LOT closer to the end than the beginning.
I base most of my sentiment off the 18.6 year real estate/land cycle theory that I have been following since 2022. I also give a lot of credibility to U.S. yield curve un-inversions sending shockwaves through the global economic system.
What do you guys and gals think?
META Stock Rises for 19 Consecutive SessionsMETA Stock Rises for 19 Consecutive Sessions
According to the Meta Platforms (META) stock chart:
→ Based on closing prices, the stock has posted 19 consecutive daily gains since 17 January.
→ META has reached an all-time high, solidifying above the key $700 per share level.
Bullish sentiment was driven by a strong Q4 earnings report that exceeded analyst expectations:
→ Earnings per share: reported $8.01 vs. expected $6.75.
→ Revenue: reported $48.38 billion vs. expected $46.99 billion.
Additionally, media reports highlighted:
→ Meta Platforms announced a 5% dividend increase.
→ Over 3.3 billion people interact with its apps daily.
→ Mark Zuckerberg stated that 2025 will be a turning point for AI at Meta.
→ Strong ties between the company’s CEO and President Trump.
Technical Analysis of Meta Platforms (META) Stock
Price movements have formed an ascending trend channel (blue) since 2024, with its lower boundary acting as stable support. However, the daily RSI indicator has entered extreme overbought territory, signalling potential vulnerability to a pullback.
If a correction occurs, the $700 psychological level may be tested, similar to how $680 was previously.
Former resistance at $636, reinforced by the channel's lower boundary, appears to be a strong support level.
Analyst Forecasts for Meta Platforms (META) Stock
According to Yahoo Finance:
→ In the past week, 23 analysts raised their earnings per share estimates for META in 2025.
→ 56 out of 65 analysts rate META stock as a "strong buy" or "buy."
TipRanks data indicates an average 12-month price target of $764.61 for META stock.
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META run almost finished? Just a little fun and brainstorming with higher time frame charts. Utilizing RSI, patterns, and time cycles.
Lots of similarities between now and the 2020-2021 bull run. Not to mention a lot of good data suggesting we are close to a recession at best. (Weak housing data/stocks, yield curve uninversion)
What are your thoughts?
STOCKS | AI | Amazon, Meta & MSFTPeople who are saying that AI is just a bubble are missing the big picture. Huge tech companies are pouring serious money into it, which shows they believe AI is here to stay.
We're talking massive investments – like over $320 billion in AI infrastructure by 2025, according to the Financial Times. Amazon is planning over $100 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, mainly focused on AI infrastructure. This could be huge not only for NASDAQ:AMZN as a whole but also for the AI industry.
Alphabet is also throwing in around $75 billion this year to boost its AI capabilities. These kinds of investments from the top players make it clear: they know you have to spend big to win in the AI game and clearly there is a race going on, especially after the release of DeepSeekAI. American companies don't want to be left behind, and it's likely that they will pour money into integrating AI to improve their business operation - with the ultimate aim to improve profit - which is great for stock prices. How they make money from AI might change over time, but the overall direction is obvious – AI is changing everything and driving innovation.
According to Statista, the global AI market is predicted to reach around $826 billion by 2030. That kind of growth tells you AI is going to be a major force in just about every industry. And therefore I believe that all the companies making major investment in AI will also see exponential growth over the next 5 years - meaning it may be a longer term game play.
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NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:META
FB (META), What is going on?Stocks fall one after another !
We Saw a considerable decline in FB (Meta) Stoc k after earning report after hours of last trading session. What is happening for FB (Meta) in terms of Elliott waves?
FB (META), has likely completed a primary degree ascending cycle started on 4th Sept 2012 at 17.55 USD . This cycle took 9 years to be completed therefore, we can imagine how boring will be the correction phase before completion !
If true , FB (META) has started a correction decline form ATH (384.33) down to Retracement levels with today's pre-market price around 0.382 level.
Although 0.382 retracement is also possible for wave 2s , I give very low possibility to bounce back from this level according to timing and corrective patterns.
Retracement down to 200 , 157 and even 96 USD corresponding to 0.5 , 0.618 Golden Ration and 0.786 Retracement levels is very possible, I tried to show the probability of each possible Retracement with thickness of arrows with the thickest to be the most probable ( As I suppose ) and vice versa.
After completion of this primary degree wave 2 , there will be a huge up going wave which is primary degree wave 3 . This wave 3 will push the price up to at least 700 USD and even higher ( Very good news for long term investors ) depending on at which retracement level this boring correction phase ends. It is too soon to talk about this target we can update our targets in next years !
Please note this is a very long term prediction so, there will be lots of ups and downs and fluctuations in our path. What is happening on FB (META) is more than likely similar to whats happened for ETSY, SHOPIFY, SQ and many others in the market.
As I showed on the chart, this is what I see as the most probable scenario which means there are more optimistic scenarios. Mots probable more optimistic scenario is that FB ( META) is just correcting the wave cycle labeled as wave (5). As far as the stock is trading above 170 USD, this scenario is valid.
Hope this analysis to be helpful and wish you all the best.
Name Your Stocks! I’ll Analyze the Most Voted Picks!Hello readers,
Let’s Do It Again! Name Your Top 3 Stocks for a Technical Breakdown!
A while back, I did this with crypto, and the response was insane – hundreds of comments and great discussions. Now, I’m bringing it to stocks! Will this get the same hype? Probably not… but prove me wrong! 😏
🔹 Drop three stocks you’re most interested in.
🔹 Boost the post to make sure your picks count.
🔹 I’ll analyze the most mentioned ones, highlighting key technical strengths, weaknesses, and possible scenarios.
If the chart offers clear insights, I’ll break them down. If it doesn’t, I’ll tell you why technical analysis isn’t reliable in that case – because knowing when NOT to rely on TA is just as important.
Let’s see what the TradingView community is watching – drop your picks below and let’s try this!
Cheers,
Vaido
Meta: Breakout!META has successfully broken out of its previous consolidation, extending a powerful uptrend. This nearly “correction-free” rally has once again pushed the stock to new record highs, which aligns perfectly with our primary expectation of further gains during the larger green wave . However, given the extent of this advance, META remains vulnerable to pullbacks. Thus, we assign a 33% probability to an immediate transition into a wave alt. correction, which would be triggered by a drop below the $547.57 support.
Meta's Q3 Financial Results | Growth and the Future of AI & AR Meta's Q3 Earnings: AI Investments Shape the Future of Engagement and Monetization
Last week, Meta shared its Q3 earnings, revealing a familiar trend: while the results were strong, rising AI investments cast a shadow. With over 3.2 billion daily users across Meta’s apps, the company alongside Google and YouTube is in a prime position to bring AI into the mainstream. However, this shift could potentially disrupt the creator economy as we know it
So, how will this affect the future of Meta’s apps?
Did you know META is 222% up since our first analysis ?
Let’s break down the quarter and explore the latest updates
Today’s Highlights
- Overview of Meta Q3 FY24
- Recent business highlights
- Key quotes from the earnings call
- The potential decline of the creator economy
1. Meta Q3 FY24 Overview
Meta operates within two main segments
FoA: Family of Apps (Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp)
RL: Reality Labs (virtual reality hardware and software)
Daily Active People in FoA grew by 5% year over year, reaching 3.29 billion. However, user growth has slowed, with Meta adding 20 million daily users in Q3 2024 down from 50 million earlier in 2024.
Meta’s reach now extends to over half of the global population aged 15 to 80, meaning future growth will hinge more on engagement and ad efficiency than adding new users.
Key Insights from Zuckerberg:
-Facebook: Positive engagement trends among Gen Z in the U.S.
-Instagram: Sustains “strong” growth globally.
-WhatsApp: Now surpasses 2 billion calls daily.
-Meta AI: 500 million monthly active users.
-Threads: 275 million monthly active users, up from 200 million in Q2, with notable growth in regions like the U.S., Taiwan, and Japan (currently not monetized and unlikely to drive significant revenue by 2025).
Advertising Performance:
- Ad impressions grew 7% year-over-year (compared to 10% in Q2).
- Average ad price increased by 11% year-over-year (10% in Q2).
- Average revenue per user grew by 12% year-over-year, reaching $12.29 (compared to Snap at $3.10 and Reddit at $3.58).
- Despite some critics suggesting potential inflation due to bot activity, ARPU growth points to real ad value; fake users can’t generate revenue.
Financials
- Revenue rose 19% year-over-year to $40.6 billion.
- FoA saw a 19% increase, reaching $40.3 billion.
- RL grew by 29% to $0.3 billion.
- Gross margin was 82% (-1pp Y/Y, +1pp Q/Q).
- Operating margin stood at 43% (+2pp Y/Y, +5pp Q/Q).
- FoA operating profit was $21.8 billion (54% margin, +2pp Y/Y).
- RL reported an operating loss of $4.4 billion (down slightly from $4.5 billion in Q2).
- EPS rose by 37% year-over-year to $6.03.
Cash Flow
- Operating cash flow was $24.7 billion (61% margin, +1pp Y/Y).
- Free cash flow was $15.5 billion (38% margin, -2pp Y/Y).
Balance Sheet
- Cash and marketable securities totaled $71 billion
- Long-term debt was $29 billion
Guidance:
- Q4 FY24 revenue is forecasted at $46.5 billion in the mid-range
- FY24 expenses estimated at $96-$98 billion (previously $96-$99 billion)
- FY24 Capex is expected to be $38-40 billion (previously $37-$40 billion)
Summary Analysis
Revenue growth was 20% in constant currency (compared to 23% in Q2), with ad revenue growth driven by increased ad prices. Strong demand for ads continued, largely due to higher ad performance, especially in online commerce, healthcare, and entertainment. Geographically, North America and Europe led growth at 21%, while Asia slowed from 28% to 15%.
Reality Labs’ revenue rose 29%, mainly from hardware sales, though the division continues to post significant losses. As shown in the visuals, FoA operating profit reached an all-time high, while RL’s losses remain around $4 billion quarterly.
Headcount increased by 9% year-over-year to 72,404, signaling a return to hiring, particularly in priority areas such as monetization, infrastructure, Reality Labs, and generative AI.
Stock buybacks amounted to nearly $9 billion in Q3, up from $6 billion in Q2, though lower than the $15 billion in Q1. Management’s confidence in Meta’s stock remains strong, with an additional $1.3 billion paid in dividends.
Capital expenditures climbed by 36% to $9.2 billion compared to $8.5 billion in Q2, with guidance staying on track. Management anticipates “significant acceleration in infrastructure expenses” for 2025, which will affect both the cost of revenue and R&D expenses.
Despite heavy AI spending, Meta remains highly profitable, generating nearly $52 billion in free cash flow over the past 12 months—just shy of Alphabet’s $56 billion over the same period.
Q4 FY24 revenue guidance points to deceleration, with mid-range growth forecasted at 16%.
Let’s examine Meta’s investments and market position further.
2. Recent Business Highlights
Meta Orion
Meta's Orion AR glasses mark an ambitious step towards a future beyond smartphones, showcasing the potential of augmented reality (AR):
-Prototype Status: Orion is a high-tech AR prototype, equipped with advanced features, but high production costs keep it out of reach for consumers.
-Advanced AR Display: Using Micro LED projectors and silicon carbide lenses, Orion offers a broad field of view with sharper visuals than most current AR devices.
-Interactive AI Integration: With Meta's generative AI, Orion enables users to interact with virtual elements, identify real-world objects, and create immediate solutions, such as recipes.
-Complex Hardware: Orion relies on a neural wristband for control and a wireless compute puck, creating a multi-part system.
-High Cost & Limited Production: With a price tag estimated at $10,000, Orion isn’t ready for mass production. Meta has produced around 1,000 units for demonstrations and internal testing.
- Future Vision: Meta aims to release a consumer-friendly AR device within a few years, working toward a slimmer, more affordable model that could rival smartphone prices.
Orion reflects Meta's goal to lead the next wave of computing, though significant technological and cost hurdles remain.
Timing and Competitive Landscape**: Zuckerberg’s reveal of Orion may aim to justify Reality Labs' annual $16-20 billion operating loss to shareholders and gather feedback. Meanwhile, Apple has initiated its “Atlas” project to explore the smart glasses market, indicating potential plans to shift focus from the high-end $3,500 Vision Pro VR headset.
How AI Is Already Impacting Meta
Beyond future-oriented projects like Orion, Meta’s AI advancements are actively enhancing its core business in two strategic areas: engagement and monetization.
-Engagement: Meta's recommendation engine uses AI to tailor feeds with highly relevant video content, keeping users engaged. AI-driven prediction systems further increase app usage by showing content that maximizes interaction.
-Monetization: AI boosts ad efficiency across the entire lifecycle—from creation to performance tracking. Generative AI assists with ad copy, images, and video, while advanced models analyze user behavior to serve targeted ads, improving conversion rates incrementally.
-Meta AI Studio: This platform allows developers to create, train, and deploy custom AI models within Meta’s ecosystem. By enabling personalized assistants, interactive AI, and AR applications, Meta seeks to drive new consumer apps and maximize ad potential across its platforms.
Market Share
Meta’s advertising revenue hit $39.9 billion in Q3, reaching 81% of Google’s search revenue, up from 76% last year. Meta’s ad revenue is expanding at the same rate as Amazon’s, despite Meta’s larger base, signaling regained market share and effective adaptation to the post-ATT environment.
3. Key Quotes from the Earnings Call
CEO Mark Zuckerberg
- On AI and the Family of Apps: “Improvements to our AI-driven feed and video recommendations have led to an 8% increase in time spent on Facebook and a 6% increase on Instagram this year alone. More than a million advertisers used our GenAI tools to create over 15 million ads last month, and we estimate businesses using Image Generation are seeing a 7% conversion lift.”
-On Llama 4: “We're training the Llama 4 models on a cluster larger than 100,000 H100s, more extensive than anything reported elsewhere.”
-On RayBan Meta Glasses: “Glasses are the ideal AI form factor as they let your AI see, hear, and communicate with you. Demand remains strong, with the new clear edition selling out quickly.”
-On Meta AI: “We’re on track for Meta AI to become the world’s most used AI assistant by year-end, with popular uses including information gathering, task assistance, and content exploration.”
CFO Susan Li
-On Recommendations: “Inspired by scaling laws observed in large language models, we’ve developed new ranking architectures for Facebook video that enhance relevance and increase watch time”
-On Capital Allocation: “We’re optimistic about our opportunities and believe that investing now in infrastructure and talent will accelerate progress and returns.”
4. The Potential Decline of the Creator Economy
Facebook and Instagram have evolved from social networks to content networks, benefiting creators with wide-reaching platforms. However, this era may be coming to a close.
-AI-Generated Content: Zuckerberg shared plans to introduce AI-generated and AI-summarized content on Facebook, Instagram, and potentially Threads, gradually shifting away from creator-generated content as the primary engagement driver.
-Impact on Creators: As AI learns to identify and generate engaging content, creators could struggle to compete, with algorithms delivering exactly what audiences want. Over time, creators may face a landscape where AI determines the most engaging posts, relegating them to the sidelines in a world increasingly powered by self-generating content.
-Why It Matters: Platforms like YouTube share 55% of ad revenue with creators, but Meta does not, meaning that an AI-driven shift isn’t primarily about cost-cutting. Instead, it allows for more integrated ad placements within algorithmic feeds, potentially boosting impressions and conversions.
Although AI generated feeds may sound dystopian, current high engagement accounts already use tactics to maximize engagement, meaning the shift to AI might go largely unnoticed by audiences.
META: trend structure is approaching important resistance zoneMeta is approaching important resistance zone both in terms of macro (from 2022 lows) and mid-term (since Apr 2024 lows): 700-760 level.
Until price is bellow 760 level, my operative scenario is to prepare for at least mid-term topping action with following unfold of larger correction. Macro support levels for this potential correction are at 520-420.
From the long-term investing perspective it looks reasonable to consider hedging long-term holdings. From swing-trading perspective this resistance levels might present good risk-reward opportunity in coming weeks.
From macro-perspective, levels of 520-420 are important zone to watch for future supporting action if mid-term correction materializes.
Until price is holding above 420, macro uptrend since 2022 lows looks intact and assumes higher levels (at 1000-1300 macro resistance) in years to come.
As an alternative mid-term scenario, I might also consider price trying to reach higher resistance levels, around 800-810, before starting larger degree correction towards macro support zone.
If price moves beyond 810 level and will be able to sustain further advance afterwards, or in macro-perspective: fall below 420 level, suggested mid-term and macro structures needs to be revised.
Thank you for your attention and wishing the best to your investing and trading in 2025!
Meta Platforms - The Breakout Rally To $1.000!Meta Platforms ( NASDAQ:META ) is about to break out:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Ever since Meta Platforms - formerly known as Facebook - was listed on the Nasdaq, this stock has been creating new all time highs over and over again. Also over the past couple of months, momentum was pretty strong and a triangle breakout seems inevitable.
Levels to watch: $650, $1.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Just In: $META Up 3% Premarket Trading Today After Q4 Beat.In a surprising turn of event, shares of Microsoft fell in Europe on Thursday after it issued a downbeat forecast for its cloud business, while Facebook parent Meta shares ( NASDAQ:META ) rose after beating expectations, as investors scrutinised the companies' spending on artificial intelligence.
Microsoft shares traded down 4.5% on the Frankfurt market, having fallen a similar amount in after-hours trading on Wednesday and finishing the regular session down 1.1%.
Meta shares however, opened up 2.5% in Germany, having risen 2.1% after the closing bell and ending the regular session up 0.3%.
Days after Chinese upstart DeepSeek revealed a breakthrough in cheap AI computing that shook the U.S. technology industry, the chief executives of Microsoft and Meta defended massive spending that they said was key to staying competitive in the new field.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said Wednesday’s that the rapid rise of competitors from China has only strengthened the tech giant’s commitment to its AI ambitions.
The CEO said it’s too early to know how growing competition from China could impact its future investments. Meta reiterated its forecast of $60 billion to $65 billion in capital expenditures this year.
Technical Outlook
as of the time of writing, NASDAQ:META shares is up 2.81% in Thursday's premarket session. NASDAQ:META closed Wednesday's session with the overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 71.87. however, NASDAQ:META doesnt seem to be cooling off any moment with the shares moving above key MA this only solidifies the fact that NASDAQ:META could bridged the $700 pivot point. However, in the case of a drawback, NASDAQ:META 's should find support in the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement point a level that aligns with the $640 price action.
$15 to $53 $DGNX +250% verticalForget earnings, if you wanted to gamble today NASDAQ:DGNX was your stock with 250% vertical today
Not these 3% movers NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:MSFT 😅
Small float + FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) + market orders and you get tripled stock.
Not many people even heard about it but NASDAQ:DGNX was the wildest move in the entire stock market today.
META Platforms Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t bought META before the rally:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of META Platforms prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 660usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-2-21,
for a premium of approximately $32.20.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.