BTCUSD Higher time-frame "The Most Dangerous Short" ex.1 (Jan 4)After seeing so many individuals both - realize their TA was useless, and
- still have new people coming in realizing the same
- spending a lot of time to figure out a single short opportunity after being faked out several times, and then gloat about it despite losing several others
- casual insistence of 'it has to dump' and '2017' and 'EMA EMA EMA'; constant FUD with poe's law in full force and 'litecoin has a purpose everyone!'
- dogecoin makes me money somehow (????)
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It's funny how bearish individuals have to be the ones to call others incorrect first, because after they start, it will recover.faster. This is a typical natural reaction to meeting an overbought state, of course. What if there was no overbought state, and any impulse is entirely based on the individual movement of wealth? Does any market then turn into one or two individuals with megaphones and a crowd of ants at an auction, all competing for who gets third place?
I would be more sympathic for shorting folks if this wasn't happening nonstop the past runaway parabola move. Over and over and over. I realized it on the push out of 20k; it was frankly magnificently orchstrated, and straight up jaded a few, and left people crying over their indicators.
This is N O T your average price. Remember that when an entity has control over price impulse, all TA is the rough aggregate of many techniques done with minute differences. Effort spent on the chart is purely cosmetic; anything you see here should be blatantly obvious with only the time and price levels.
next part is a closer at rekting bears. and why you mustn't short.
see you after this long in 2026, will be hodling till then. that's the only suggestion to both profit and avoid with 100% accuracy, but you must adapt to the time frame expectation of the action; years.
pt 2 ->
Metagame
NQ testing important resistance NQ1!See chart for summary.
I don't think the market has topped here, but I do think there's an opportunity for short term shorts to nail a momentum move down AFTER a fail at the zone. I included the EMA's here because they provide a good visual tool...a pullback to the 25 EMA + zone + price action fail....that's essentially what I'm looking for. Ideally I'd like to see it developing on the H1 and execute on the 5m tomorrow.
That's very specific, and like I said before, I've been burned by the NQ many times on technical setups. This is a algo heavy instrument that's perfected the art of the fakeout + trap.
If I'm completely wrong and price busts up through the level, this is still a chart worth studying.
Why?
Two reasons:
1. Momentum will come into the market here. First step in good trading is to identify when/where opportunities will present themselves.
2. The second step is knowing which direction to pick. I'm a discretionary technical trader...and if I'm clearly trapped, it's a chance to study how the NQ will set up attractively to one side and then slam the other way at the last minute.
Either way, watch for the move that's coming.
