Copper Expected to Strengthen - Long TermCopper Weekly – At the beginning of 2011, Copper made a directional change and has fallen more than 50% to date. However, with the copper demand growing, the commodity could be ready to make its next directional change in the coming months. China, the largest consumer of copper, is seeing its economy stabilising once again after suffering during the first half of the year. This had led to copper prices increasing over the last month and demand is expected to increase globally over the next four years. However, there is expected to be a large shortage for this growing demand and Citi Bank has predicted that this will lead to a 40% increase in copper prices. On the technical side, we would be looking for price to break out of the triangle, followed by a break of the $2.30 level. Copper prices along with other metals have had a weak final quarter for the past five years but this streak is highly expected to break this quarter. This would most likely mean a break of the triangle which would be a strong sign of a long term price increase. Alternatively, if price broke below $2, a strong decline would be expected.
Metal
GOLD AnalysisOn gold, we are inside of a monthly (1238.23-1205.49) and weekly (1243.13-1205.49) demand zones. There is also a daily supply zone formed just above us but this zone working out is low probability.
We have 2 alternatives that may happen here;
1- Red: We may go to lower timeframes and look for good buying opportunities right now and ride the price till daily supply zone above.
Or,
2- Black: We may wait the daily supply zone to get taken out upwards and wait for a pullback to enter long.
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SILVER AnalysisSilver is trying to reach weekly and monthly demand zone below. By doing so, it has been creating several daily supply zones too. Each of them are good for selling opportunies.
We may again see sellers to emerge at around 16.541-16.210 daily supply zone.
In coming days, we may see some high probability buying opportunities for medium-term positions once we reach monthly demand area down below.
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GOLD H4: H4 demand buying opportunityTOP-DOWN ANALYSIS
MONTHLY: we are currently inside of a monthly demand and expecting a bounce from this zone
DAILY: the price is far away of a daily supply now, and it may want to test it
H4: it has just created a new H4 demand zone. Test of the zone should be a good buying opportunity
TP1: just before the H4 candle wick
TP2: trail the stop till just before the daily supply zone above
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PA1. Palladium looks like a solid Buy optionPalladium futures are in a corrective Wave C according to my Wave counter. Broke Daily 200 MA and 200 WMA and looks like now have a clear path forward. Daily RSI may be slightly overloaded so there may be a short correction after the immediate ascending but the ending target of 680 figures looks very reachable.
On fundamentals, Palladium hasn´t forwarded the Gold rally therefore has a similar or bigger room to run. Also, looks like there may be a temporal shortage of a supply for this metal: www.metal.com
Buy: at current levels
SL: 580
TP1: 620
TP2: 650
TP3: 680
XAUUSD. Correction waves in playAfter all this huge ascending we had, it is clear that Gold is a Buy: huge sideway channel we had since some weeks ago has been broken upwards and broken well, with a solid confirmation.
Now, before going any further, Gold has to correct: lot of mid-term buyers may want to take their profits. I´d expect it to correct to a Fibo 50% line as it looks like a solid support but do not discard going back to the flag line (black) and have some sideway trading there...
Notice RSI is heavily overbought on 1H and 4H timeframes, daily and weekly also approaching to overbought zone
Entry point: Monday by market
SL: 1301
TP1: 1284
TP2: 1273
TP3: 1266
Gold/Silver Ratio 4/20/2016The big direction of this ratio is obviously down, and there are only three ways this ratio can go down: 1. Silver going up and Gold going down; 2. Silver going up more than Gold going up; 3. Gold going down more than Silver going down. #3 is very unlikely and #2 is most likely. Personally, I'm long both metals.
Head and Shoulders pattern - Breakdown or a run to 1300?$XAUUSD was one of my winners last week with successful bearish harmonic pattern traded from 1260$ to 1230$.
Now a bearish Head and Shoulders was formed with a neck line that is also the bottom of a trading channel.
The price closed below the 50 SMA line and barely above the Fast SMA line.
1225$ - Key support zone
Bearish scenario - Breakdown and continuation towards 1200$ and 1180$
Bullish scenario - Neck line holds as support and $XAUUSD runs towards top of trading channel - 1300$
Tomer Jakov, The MarketZone (@themarketzone)
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