Gold market analysis: 26-May-2025Good morning! Happy New Day! Here's your daily Gold market analysis. Learn, grow, and trade wisely.
Metals
Silver Consolidates After Huge Drop – Breakout Ahead?At the beginning of April, XAGUSD experienced a dramatic decline, losing over 5,000 pips in just three trading days — a drop of more than 15% of its value.
However, after bottoming out on Monday, April 7, the price staged a sharp rebound and, within a week, was back around the 33.00 level.
📉➡️📈 From Panic to Pause – What’s Next?
For more than a month now, Silver has been trading in a tight range, between just under 32.00 and slightly above 33.00.
This consolidation forms a rectangle pattern, which is typically a continuation structure in technical analysis.
With this in mind, I expect further upside from Silver. A clean breakout above the current range could send the price toward the 35.00 zone — and possibly beyond this psychological level.
📊 Trading Plan:
As long as the 32.00 support holds, I remain bullish and will look to buy dips, aiming for a positive risk-reward setup, ideally around 1:2.
🧠 Consolidation breeds momentum — don’t sleep on Silver. If the genuine breakout comes, it could be explosive. 🚀
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GOLD rises impressively after mid-May declineUS President Trump once again used tariffs and the market's risk-off sentiment suddenly heated up. OANDA:XAUUSD jumped nearly 2% on Friday and the weekly gain reached nearly 5%.
OANDA:XAUUSD has grown impressively after a sharp decline in mid-May, taking advantage of safe-haven flows, the recovery was mainly due to growing investor concerns about the sustainability of US government debt. The market will likely continue to react to headlines surrounding the difficult US fiscal situation, trade relations and geopolitics.
On Friday local time, US President Trump said on his social media platform "Real Social" that he proposed to impose a 50% tariff on the European Union from June 1. Trump wrote that the main purpose of the establishment of the European Union was to "take advantage of the United States on trade". In addition, on Friday local time, Trump posted on "Real Social" that he had long told Apple CEO Tim Cook that he expected Apple's iPhones sold in the United States to be produced and manufactured in the United States, not in India or anywhere else. Trump said that otherwise, Apple would have to pay at least a 25% tariff to the United States.
Assessing the situation surrounding Trump
"Trump has been vocal in the past 24 hours, threatening to impose 50% tariffs on the European Union starting June 1, imposing major sanctions on Apple and taking on Harvard University, all of which have weighed on stocks but boosted gold prices.
Recurrent tariff concerns, coupled with low liquidity ahead of the long weekend, could exacerbate volatility."
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has achieved its initial upside target at $3,371 which is the technical confluence of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement with the upper edge of the price channel after receiving support from the confluence of the EMA21 with the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement.
In the short term, if gold breaks $3,371 it will tend to continue its bullish trend with the next target being $3,400 in the short term, more so than the last $3,435 which is the all-time high of $3,500.
As long as gold remains within/above the channel, the overall trend outlook is bullish, and the immediate support is currently around the $3,300 raw price point area with the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level and EMA21. In case of a sell-off below $3,292, gold could still find short-term support at the $3,250 technical point and the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level.
In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing up from around the 50 mark, with the RSI still well above the overbought zone, suggesting room for further upside.
Looking ahead, the overall technical outlook for gold is bullish, with key points to watch out for as follows.
Support: $3,300 – $3,292 – $3,250
Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400 – $3,435
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3391 - 3389⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3395
→Take Profit 1 3383
↨
→Take Profit 2 3377
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3299 - 3301⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3295
→Take Profit 1 3307
↨
→Take Profit 2 3313
Gold Market Analysis – May 26The gold market is showing signs of a modest recovery following the recent decline, but the price action remains cautious and lacks strong momentum.
In this morning’s session, gold bounced back from the $3,320–$3,330 support area and is now hovering around $3,347, which aligns with a previously rejected resistance zone. This rebound appears technical rather than a confirmed shift in trend, as trading volume during the upward move is still relatively low, signaling buyer hesitation.
The $3,350 level is a critical resistance area. Unless we see a clean breakout above it with strong volume, any attempt to buy here may be premature. However, a confirmed break above $3,350 could open the path toward retesting $3,435 and potentially $3,500 in the medium to long term. On the other hand, failure to hold above the $3,330–$3,320 range, and especially a drop below $3,290, would likely trigger a deeper correction down to the $3,200 support.
In terms of strategy, traders looking to go long should avoid chasing current prices and wait for either a confirmed breakout above $3,350 or a pullback to the $3,320–$3,290 zone. Look for signs of bullish continuation such as higher lows and strong candle confirmation. For those considering short positions, keep an eye on the $3,350 area for bearish rejection patterns like pin bars or engulfing candles on the 4H or daily chart, but only act if clear confirmation appears—don’t guess tops.
In summary, the market is currently in a pivotal consolidation phase. How price behaves around the $3,350 level will shape the next move. While the longer-term outlook remains bullish, traders should remain patient and disciplined, avoiding impulsive entries until the market provides clear signals.
Warm regards,
Silver H4 I Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H4 chart analysis, price could fall toward our buy entry at 133.05, which is a pullback support.
Our take profit will be at 34.26, which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
The stop loss will be placed at 32.54, a pullback support.
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Does Gold want to continue Bullish to close out the Month?Looking for more bullish plays but Im thinking we need to allow Monday to play out and wait for the better move on Tues. Be cautious today.
XAUUSD H4 I Bullish ContinuationBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling toward our buy entry at 3291.31, which is an overlap support.
Our take profit will be at 2309.19, which is a swing high resistance level.
The stop loss will be placed at 3244.86, a pullback support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?COPPER is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 145% Fibonacci extension and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 4.8773
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 145% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 4.9762
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 4.7206
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GOLD Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD made a retest a
Horizontal resistance
Of 3,366$ and we are
Already seeing a local
Bearish reaction so a
Further local pullback
Is expected with the
Target being 3,337$ level
Sell!
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SILVER WILL FALL|SHORT|
✅SILVER has retested a key resistance level around 33.60$
And as the pair is already making a bearish pullback
A move down to retest the demand level below at 33.30$ is likely
SHORT🔥
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XAU/USD Technical Analysis – 4H Chart Overview🔍 Current Market Position
Price: $3,358.125
Currently near resistance zone ($3,420–$3,470)
Historical reaction in this zone shows multiple rejections 🛑
📌 Key Levels
🔺 Resistance Point: ~$3,420–$3,470
Rejected here 3 times ➡️ strong supply zone
🔻 Support Level: ~$3,150
Past price bounced here multiple times 🟠
💪 Strong Support: ~$2,950
Major bounce seen in early May 👊
🧭 Pattern Outlook
Repeated resistance test 🔁 ➡️ potential double/triple top
📉 Blue arrow suggests bearish projection towards $3,050–$2,950
If support at $3,150 fails 🔓, expect deeper drop to strong support
🔮 Forecast
🔽 Bearish Bias
High chance of reversal from resistance
Target: $3,050 and possibly $2,950 🎯
⚠️ Watch for
Price Action at Resistance: Rejection = short opportunity 🔧
Break of $3,150 Support: May accelerate bearish move 🧨
📌 Summary:
Market shows clear resistance rejection history. If it plays out again, we may see a strong drop toward lower support zones. Ideal for short setups 📉💼
Big bill, big debt, bullish goldGold recently broke above a descending trendline and reclaimed the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $3,333.05. The bullish momentum now faces resistance near the 0.618 retracement at $3,366.29 and the $3,389.94 zone (0.786). A clean breakout could open the way toward the $3,440–$3,507 area, aligning with the 1.0 and 1.618 Fib extensions.
The rally follows rising trade tensions, as President Trump announced 50% tariffs on EU imports from June 1st and threatened Apple with 25% tariffs unless it relocates iPhone production to the U.S.
Further fuel for gold comes from the proposed ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act,’ which includes major tax cuts and spending reforms. Expected to add $3–5 billion to U.S. debt, the bill passed the House and now moves to the Senate.
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Natural Gas | Oil | Dollar | Silver | Gold Price ForecastNatural Gas | Oil | Dollar | Silver | Gold Price Forecast
COMEX:GC1! COMEX:SI1! TVC:DXY NYMEX:CL1!
Gold swing trade idea target 1000 pips
* **Pair**: XAUUSD
* **Timeframe**: 1H (1 Hour)
* **Platform**: TradingView (OANDA feed)
* **Trade Type**: Long (Buy)
* **Entry**: 3,318.36
* **TP (Take Profit)**: \~3,419.30
* **SL (Stop Loss)**: Likely in the 3,290–3,295 range (based on visual zone)
---
## 🔍 Trade Breakdown
### ✅ **1. Pattern Recognition: Symmetrical Triangle Breakout**
* The white converging trendlines form a **symmetrical triangle** — classic continuation or reversal structure.
* **Breakout occurred to the upside**, triggering the long entry at 3,318.
* **Volume Delta Box** just below shows accumulation, suggesting smart money positioning pre-breakout.
---
### 🧠 **2. Confluence Zone for Entry**
* **Entry** level (3318.36) is:
* **Just above 0.618 Fibonacci retracement**
* Sits at the **triangle apex breakout retest**
* Inside a high **delta volume node** (buyers outpaced sellers)
This suggests **institutional accumulation** and a **"discounted" long entry** relative to prior range.
---
### 🔁 **3. Fibonacci Levels**
* The chart includes multiple Fib retracement overlays:
* From most recent **impulse wave down** and **overall swing**
* 0.5 and 0.618 retracement zones align with:
* **Rejection-to-support flip**
* Breakout confirmation levels
* This is a classic **smart money technique**: wait for structure break, enter on retrace to equilibrium (0.618/0.5).
---
### 📦 **4. Order Blocks and Imbalance Zones**
* Several **red and orange blocks** highlight prior **liquidity zones**:
* The large red zone below entry (around 3,295) was swept, likely inducing stop hunts → now **demand zone**
* Entry avoids this volatility and lands **just above reaccumulation zone**
* Also a visible **imbalance fill area** around 3,318, now tested and held — supporting bullish case.
---
### 🧮 **5. Risk-Reward and Positioning**
* **TP** at \~3,419.30 (just below 3,435 structure high) gives **R\:R over 3:1**, possibly even 4:1.
* SL is **tight under recent minor low** and under discount zone, which is key.
* Clear definition of:
* **Premium pricing** (target)
* **Discount pricing** (entry)
* Fits within a **smart money concept (SMC)** framework.
---
### 💡 Summary of the Method Used
| Element | Technique Used | Notes |
| ---------------- | --------------------------- | ---------------------------------------- |
| **Structure** | Symmetrical Triangle | Breakout to upside confirmed |
| **Volume** | Delta Volume & Order Blocks | Accumulation below breakout |
| **Fib Tools** | Multi-layered retracements | Entry at 0.618 area, TP at Fib extension |
| **SMC Concepts** | Discount/Premium Zones | Entry in discount, targeting premium |
| **Risk-Reward** | \~3:1 to 4:1 | SL tight, TP near major structure high |
---
### 🟢 Professional Verdict
This trade setup is **technically sound** and based on **smart money concepts**, **volume profile**, and **price structure breakout**. It uses:
* Entry at value (post-breakout retest)
* Strong confluences (Fib, trendlines, volume delta)
* Defined risk, clean target
* Logical narrative: **accumulation → breakout → retest → expansion**
If price holds above 3318 and momentum continues, the **3419–3435 zone is very reachable**.
SILVER: Short Signal Explained
SILVER
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short SILVER
Entry Point - 33.484
Stop Loss - 33.753
Take Profit - 32.948
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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XAUUSD - Poised for Fresh Highs After Healthy Correction?Looking at this gold (XAU/USD) 4-hour chart, the precious metal appears to be in a strong bullish trend that has carried it from around $2,960 in early April to current levels near $3,356. After reaching a significant peak around $3,480 in mid-April, gold has undergone a healthy correction and consolidation phase, which is typical behavior in strong uptrends as markets digest gains and reset momentum indicators. The recent price action shows gold has found support around the $3,120 level and has begun to recover, with the current move higher suggesting the correction may be nearing completion. The overall chart structure, characterized by higher highs and higher lows, remains intact despite the recent pullback. Given the strong underlying uptrend, the successful defense of key support levels, and the recent renewed buying interest, the higher probability scenario appears to favor a continuation of the bullish momentum toward new highs, potentially targeting the previous peak around $3,480 and possibly extending toward the resistance zone highlighted in the blue rectangle near $3,500.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
XAUUSD BULLISH TRADE IDEAChart Patterns Identified:
Cup and Handle Pattern (highlighted in red/pink):
The left half shows a rounding bottom (the “cup”).
The right side forms a descending wedge (the “handle”), typically a bullish continuation pattern.
Falling Wedge (inside the handle):
The price consolidates in a narrowing range, suggesting a potential breakout.
A breakout is projected upward.
Key Levels:
Support: Around $2,955.111
Current Price: $3,327.259
Resistance:
Intermediate: Around $3,500.200
Target (based on breakout projection): $3,733.873
Bullish Scenario:
If the breakout above the falling wedge is confirmed (as suggested by the arrow), the price target is near $3,733, which aligns with the height of the cup projected from the breakout point.
This aligns with classic cup-and-handle theory.
Technical Implication:
The setup is bullish and suggests continuation of the upward trend if volume supports the breakout.
Ideal entry would be on a retest of the breakout above the handle resistance.
XAUUSD H4 STRUCTURE OUTLOOK – MAY 26, 2025📍 Price: 3,358
Bias: Bullish, but watch for major resistance and fakeouts at highs
🔎 STRUCTURAL ZONES TO WATCH
Zone Type Price Range Reason / Confluence
🟥 PREMIUM SUPPLY 3,415–3,440 H4/H1 OB + FVG, unmitigated supply, previous HH sweep, top risk
🟥 SELL INTEREST 3,390–3,410 FVG + micro supply, previous LH zone, NY session high trap
🟦 MID FLIP ZONE 3,344–3,360 Recent CHoCH, local S/R flip, base of last impulsive move
🟩 SUPPORT #1 3,309–3,325 H4 OB + FVG, prior bounce, 21/50 EMA zone
🟩 SUPPORT #2 3,279–3,295 H4 demand, sweep + FVG, retest of previous structure
🟦 DEEP DEMAND 3,254–3,265 Strong OB, last HL, aligns with deep liquidity sweep on HTF
📈 QUICK CONTEXT (PA/RSI/EMA)
Trend: Still bullish on H4, but approaching exhaustion into supply
PA: Clean HH/HL, but sellers are waiting at the top
RSI: Overbought zone – potential for sharp rejection near premium
EMAs: Price above all EMAs (5/21/50/100/200), short-term stretched
🌍 MACRO CONTEXT
Geopolitics: Middle East, US inflation, global uncertainty still fueling safe haven flows
News: Monday open – watch for liquidity grabs and fakeouts in both directions
⚡️ HOW TO TRADE THESE ZONES
Only react to confirmation (BOS, CHoCH, or engulf) on M15/M5 at key levels
Avoid chasing candles at highs – best trades come from liquidity sweeps or trap zones
Be patient around NY session for high-volume fakeouts
🎯 KEY LEVELS RECAP
POI Price Range Bias
Premium Supply 3,415–3,440 Sell trap / reversal zone
Sell Interest 3,390–3,410 Short if rejection confirmed
Mid Flip Zone 3,344–3,360 PA magnet, S/R reaction
Support #1 3,309–3,325 Buy bounce on structure
Support #2 3,279–3,295 Demand, look for sweep bounces
Deep Demand 3,254–3,265 Extreme liquidity zone, last line of bulls
Friendly Tip:
Mark your key levels and watch price like a true sniper – don’t chase, wait for the trap! Which zone are you watching for the next big move? Drop your thoughts below, give a like if you value this structure, and follow for real-time gold plans and no-nonsense market insight. Stay sharp, team! 💡✨
— GoldFxMinds
XAUUSD DAILY OUTLOOK – MAY 26, 2025📍 Current Price: 3,358
Bias: Bullish momentum with “caution” – ready for liquidity sweeps and potential intraday trap moves.
📈 Quick PA/Trend/Risk Check
Trend: Bullish, but price hit major supply; expect high volatility.
Price Action: Multiple daily wicks = indecision, liquidity traps both sides.
RSI: Still in overbought territory on D1, but not at extremes.
EMAs: All trending up, with 21/50 EMA as bounce supports below price.
🌍 Macro/Mood/News
Geopolitics: Middle East + Fed talks = increased headline risk, no clear direction.
News: US inflation, FOMC, and “risk-off” spikes could trigger traps into supply or deep sweeps into demand.
⚡️ How to Use
Don’t chase breakouts!
Wait for M5/M15 confirmation (BOS/CHoCH or engulf) at the above zones.
Watch for liquidity sweeps and fakeouts, especially into 3,415–3,440 and 3,305–3,325.
Use RSI/EMA/FVG as extra confluence for your entry confirmation.
🎯 Key Levels Table – Copy/Paste Ready
POI Level Bias
Premium Trap 3,415–3,440 Watch for fake breakout/sell
Sell Zone 3,388–3,408 Short if rejected strongly
S/R Flip 3,360–3,375 PA Magnet
Support #1 3,305–3,325 Bullish bounce
Support #2 3,199–3,220 Bullish bounce
Deep Discount 3,012–3,040 Last-resort buy
Stay focused, don’t force trades – sniper mode only!
Drop a comment, follow, and join the conversation!
— GoldFxMinds (GoldMindsFX)
XAUUSD Weekly Outlook (May 26–30, 2025)👋 Hey GoldMindsFX Fam!
📍 Current Price: 3,358
🗓 Timeframe: Weekly
Bias: Bullish-with-caution, looking for first signs of real pullback or fresh squeeze.
🔍 REFINED WEEKLY STRUCTURE ZONES
Zone Type Price Range Context / Confluence
🟥 Premium Supply/FVG 3,480–3,515 Fibo 2.0 extension wick high, supply unmitigated, strong rejection risk if spiked.
🟪 Upper Trap / Reversal 3,415–3,440 FVG+OB combo, previous bull trap zone, micro liquidity sweep.
🟦 Mid-Resistance / S/R Flip 3,375–3,388 Weekly PA reaction (last close rejection zone), possible magnet for news-driven retests.
🟩 Demand/Support #1 3,250–3,265 Clean OB + FVG, demand that sent price to new high, SMC structure confirmed here.
🟩 Demand/Support #2 3,172–3,188 Weekly demand, liquidity sweep (post-CPI), reaction base before latest impulse up.
🟦 Discount Block 3,065–3,100 Last unmitigated OB + FVG combo, only reached if sentiment reverses heavy or big news shock.
📈 Trend, PA & RSI Insights
Trend: Bullish, but big wicks + RSI divergence suggest a pause is near.
Price Action: Last impulse is losing steam; lots of rejection wicks above 3,400. PA signals “distribution” up top.
RSI: Still overbought – ideal for fade setups if price enters supply.
Fibo Extensions:
1.618 tapped and rejected (3,440 zone)
2.0 = 3,515 (major upper limit for May unless new shock)
🌍 Macro/News Context
Geopolitics: Ongoing tension (Ukraine, Middle East), central bank gold demand, China accumulating, hot US inflation.
Market feels nervous: Powell’s last speech + CPI/UoM confusion = chop and volatility spikes possible.
Watch for fakeouts on news spikes into upper zones.
🧠 Key Takeaway
Bulls: Only strong above 3,388 close, but risk of traps grows with each spike.
Bears: Look for rejection/CHoCH above 3,440–3,480. If 3,250 breaks, 3,170–3,100 opens fast.
⚡️ Weekly Gameplan (No SL/TP)
Premium POIs:
3,480–3,515: Extreme supply, reversal watch zone
3,415–3,440: Main liquidity trap for NY news
3,375–3,388: Magnet zone for intraday retests
Discount POIs:
3,250–3,265: Best bullish support on structure
3,172–3,188: Secondary demand, high bounce probability
3,065–3,100: Deep liquidity block for max FOMO shakeout
Stay sharp, don’t chase FOMO wicks. Let price come to your POI — and as always, flow with structure, not the hype.
Drop a 🔥 if you’re riding this weekly flow!
— GoldFxMinds (GoldMindsFX)
XAUUSD Monthly Outlook – May 2025👋 Hey GoldMindsFX!
🕰️ Timeframe: Monthly
📍 Current Price: 3,204
📈 Bias: Cautious Bullish-to-Neutral
📏 Trend: Strong long-term bullish, but in monthly exhaustion/cool-off mode
🔍 STRUCTURAL OVERVIEW
BOS (Break of Structure): Confirmed above 2,075 (2020/2022 key resistance).
Rally: Sustained higher highs and strong bullish candles since October 2023.
Current Candle: Huge wick into FIB extension (1.618–2.0) = 3,440–3,500 (top-out risk).
🧠 KEY MONTHLY LEVELS TO WATCH
Type/Zone Price Range Quick Note
🔴 Premium Supply 3,440–3,500 FIB extension (1.618–2.0), big rejection wick, bull exhaustion
🟠 Resistance 3,222–3,242 Prior OB + last BOS area, possible retest zone
⚠️ Mid-Zone 3,160–3,185 Equilibrium, liquidity trap, key short-term support
🟢 Demand 3,050–2,960 Big monthly OB + FVG, unmitigated base, strong support
🔵 Discount 2,950–2,800 Previous reaccumulation, structure demand from 2023 rallies
🗺️ MACRO & MARKET CONTEXT
Geopolitical Tension: Wars, inflation, and Fed confusion (CPI/UoM).
Market Mood: Sentiment weak, uncertainty high after May FOMC & Powell.
Central Bank Flow: Dips bought, but profit-taking near highs — “wait and react” mode.
🧭 SCENARIOS FOR MAY
Bullish Plan: If price holds above 3,160–3,185 ➔ look for re-entry toward 3,240 and possible retest of upper wicks (3,440+).
Needs H4 CHoCH + volume for confirmation.
Bearish Plan: Lose 3,160 ➔ look for a drop toward 3,050–2,960. If that fails, watch for deeper retrace to 2,800–2,950.
⚙️ FIBONACCI EXTENSION SUMMARY
1.272: ✅ Hit
1.618: 3,440 (Tapped)
2.0: 3,500 (Wick/Exhaustion)
🧠 FINAL WORD
Gold’s monthly “moonshot” stalled at 3,500 — don’t chase, just watch how price reacts to the 3,160–3,185 key range.
Lose it? Expect deeper cool-off.
Hold it? Reload for one more push toward the highs.
Stay focused, trade smart, and let structure guide your next moves!
Drop a comment if you want the weekly/daily breakdowns.
— GoldFxMinds (GoldMindsFX)
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [May 26 - May 30]This week, the price of OANDA:XAUUSD increased from 3,204 USD/oz to 3,365 USD/oz, and closed the week at 3,357 USD/oz.
The reason for the increase in gold price this week is due to:
🔹Moody's downgrades US credit rating, causing USD to fall.
🔹Unsuccessful US bond auction raises concerns about economic instability.
🔹President Trump threatens to raise tariffs on European goods, raising concerns about trade war.
🔹Escalating tensions in Ukraine, Middle East, increasing demand for safe haven gold.
Gold prices next week may fluctuate in both directions, meaning they will adjust and accumulate to wait for the results of US-China trade negotiations, US economic data, and whether Mr. Trump will decide to impose tariffs on Europe or not?
Next week, the US will release many important economic data, including:
➡️Durable Goods Orders (Tuesday),
➡️Minutes of the FED's May Policy Meeting (Wednesday),
➡️PCE Inflation Index (Friday).
With the Trump administration's tariff policy, inflationary pressures in the US have been under a lot of pressure. If the core PCE index in April increases more than expected, it may cause the FED to continue to keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting. In this scenario, the USD may increase again, causing gold prices to be under pressure to adjust next week. However, gold prices next week will hardly decrease sharply if the PCE increases, because gold prices next week are still supported by other factors such as tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, etc.
📌Technically, on the H4 chart, gold prices are starting to break the Downtrend line and tend to move closer to the resistance level of 3432. Meanwhile, support is established around the dynamic resistance level of 3300. The gold price trend next week is likely to lean towards a slight increase scenario provided that the USD does not recover strongly and geopolitical tensions continue. However, investors need to be cautious with corrections due to profit-taking or sudden changes due to macroeconomic information. Gold prices next week may fluctuate in the range of 3300-3450.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,250USD
Resistance: 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,435USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3451 - 3449⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3455
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3299 - 3301⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3295
