Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower after facing resistance at the 5-day moving average. As mentioned yesterday, selling at the 5-day moving average was an effective strategy, and since it touched the 5-day line during the pre-market, sell-side trades were easier throughout the day. The daily chart shows continued selling pressure with six consecutive bearish candles. As discussed, it's important to monitor the 120-day moving average support and keep an eye on a potential overshoot down to the 20,300 area.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has crossed above the Signal line (golden cross), but selling pressure persisted. While a death cross has not yet formed, if it does, it could trigger a third wave of selling. Conversely, a failure to form a death cross could lead to a rebound, potentially forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. Avoid chasing sell-offs and focus on range-bound trading strategies. Additionally, today’s CPI release could cause a lower wick and a bullish reversal candle, so caution is advised.
Oil
Crude oil closed lower after facing resistance near its recent high. The $79 level remains a strong resistance zone, and the significant divergence from the moving averages makes it difficult to break above easily. Some correction was expected in this area, and while the price has pulled back, it remains far from the 5-day moving average, suggesting the potential for further declines.
The daily chart indicates support in the $75–$76 range, and a drop to this area should not be ruled out. On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal on the MACD has appeared, but there is still divergence from the zero line, making buying at major support levels a preferable strategy. Selling near $79 remains valid. Additionally, oil inventory data is scheduled for release today, which may influence the market.
Gold
Gold ended with a doji candle, forming a small range after digesting the PPI data. Today’s CPI release is expected to provide a clearer direction for the market. Recent declines in expectations for additional rate cuts have been supporting gold prices. As today’s inflation data impacts Treasury yields, gold’s direction will likely hinge on the bond market's response.
If gold forms a bullish candle today, both the MACD and Signal lines may rise above the zero line, continuing the bullish trend. Conversely, if gold closes with a bearish candle, it is likely to remain within the $2,625–$2,725 range for the time being. On the 240-minute chart, support around $2,680 is key, with the MACD potentially attempting to cross above the Signal line. Failure to form a golden cross could result in further declines. Focus on buying during dips before the CPI release, as this is the most favorable approach today.
Wishing you a successful trading day!
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Bearish Market
-Buy Levels: 20,840 / 20,780 / 20,745 / 20,570
-Sell Levels: 21,015 / 21,070 / 21,120 / 21,190 / 21,320
Oil - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 77.50 / 76.90 / 76.50 / 75.70
-Sell Levels: 78.60 / 79.10 / 79.65 / 80.10
Gold - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 2,683 / 2,674 / 2,666 / 2,661 / 2,654
-Sell Levels: 2,704 / 2,712 / 2,717 / 2,723 / 2,729
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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Metals
WIG (Warszawa, PL) to Gold (in ounces), 1M (Heikin-Ashi)Dear Everyone,
Today, one more time I present the wide index in Warszawa (PL) in relation to Gold prices (of an ounce). Of course, the price is using monthly candles with Heiki-Ashi preparation. So, there is presented bigger timeframe.
As we could see, there is a real possibility to buid an inverse Head-&-Shoulders pattern. But, we will see, what future will bring to us. The prices in Warszawa could stay in relation to Gold at current levels even to March or May. But the chart seems to be very promising for the second half of the year and next year.
However, we need to keep in mind as there is also other element: Gold prices. Let's remember that when we have (now) the time of real positive interest rates (read as: cash shortage), there is a question if the prices of Gold would be only higher and higher - IMHO that's slighthly controversial thesis.
As always, with best regards to you all,
Paweł
XAUUSD: 1H MA200 rebound.Gold is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.885, MACD = 7.900, ADX = 30.745) as it is consolidating between the 1H MA50 and 1H MA200. Since yesterday, it has found support on the latter. The 1H RSI is rebounding in the same way it did on January 6th, which was the previous HL of the Channel Up. This indicates that it is a buy opportunity. The two bullish waves before both hit their 1.618 Fibonacci extensions to form a HH at the top of the Channel Up. Consequently, we turn bullish on Gold now, aiming at the 1.618 Fib (TP = 2,720) which conveniently falls a little under the R1 level.
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GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great day on the charts today with Gold recovering from yesterdays drop, perfectly inline with our plans to buy dips.
Our 4h chart idea Bullish target 2694 was hit at the start of the week and now our bearish target also complete at 2665. No lock on either weighted level and therefore playing between both levels in this range. We need ema5 to cross and lock above or below the weighted Goldturns to determine the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2694 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2694 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2726
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2726 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2753
BEARISH TARGETS
2665 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2665 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2633
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2633 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2600
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Will gold’s bullish trend change today?
On the daily line, the daily line continues to be positive for four consecutive times, and the price is effectively running above the short-term moving average and the Bollinger Middle Track. Even if there is a pullback, the shape remains the same. This is enough to show that the advantage of the bulls has not changed. The current short-term moving average has moved upward again. Forming support, other cyclical indicators maintain a bullish arrangement, and the Bollinger Bands as a whole continue to extend upward. In addition, the macd indicator double-line golden cross upward form shows sufficient upward potential. Therefore, overall on the daily line, bulls will reach new highs. High probability. In terms of the 4-hour, after the shock consolidation of the US market last Friday, it can be confirmed that gold has stabilized at 2665. This is enough to be reflected from the fact that a long lower shadow big positive line was collected during the US market. In addition, the current short-term moving average forms an upward pattern at 2685 and 2678, and other periodic indicators also show a bullish arrangement. In addition, the Bollinger Bands open upward as a whole, and the MACD indicator double lines are in a golden cross upward pattern, showing sufficient upward momentum. Therefore, the overall 4-hour level should be dominated by bulls.
For the operation strategy of gold at the beginning of this week, it is recommended to continue to do more at low levels and short at high levels. For the support and resistance below, pay attention to the 2685-2680 area first, and continue to look at the 2700-2710 area above in the short term. If it is broken by the bears, then focus on 2673 and 2664. In particular, the latter, as the negative drop point of non-agricultural data, will become the strongest defense of the bears. Long orders need to be decisively arranged above. For the upper resistance, pay attention to the vicinity of 2703 first, and then pay attention to the area of 2712. You can try short-term shorting when it is touched for the first time.
In terms of gold's short-term operation ideas today, our team recommends mainly longs at the low levels of the correction, supplemented by shorts at the rebound highs. The top short-term focus is on the 2700-2710 first-line resistance, and the bottom short-term focus is on the 2665-2660 first-line support
Gold operation strategy:
1. Gold retreats to the 2663-2665 line, cover positions and buy long, stop loss at 2655, target 2690 line, break the position and look at 2704-2707 line
2. Gold rebounded for the first time, sell short at the 2710-2712 line, stop loss at 2720, target the 2665-2670 line, and look at the 2653-2658 line if the position is broken;
Sentiment Cycle Indicator Performance (PAID)Every bold move captured by my sentiment cycle indicator.. I have designed few indicators which are unique and powerful. Sentiment indicator is also one of them. It is particularly created for every type of traded (be it beginner, intermediate or pro) and any type of chart (be it crypto, forex, indices, commodities, oil trading). It act as your friend gives you confidence while you are in trade and holding for bigger profits.
as you can see green background is buy, red is sell and no color or charting color is no sentiment zone, it is identification as no trading zone.
Happy Trading!!
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TradeTech Analysis
SILVER Will Fall! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for SILVER.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 29.780.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 28.792 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-14 : Harami/Inside PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will stay somewhat flat/sideways related to building a base.
Yesterday, 1-13, my broad cycle patterns suggested the markets would establish a "base" - leading to a "peak" on 1-18 and a major top on 1-20. Because of this, I believe the markets will attempt to melt upward into a peaking pattern (with the SPY possibly reach 595-598) before stalling out ahead of the Inauguration event.
Gold and Silver may follow this trend after stalling a bit today. Overall, I believe Gold & Silver will move upward attempting to hedge against global risk factors playing out over the next 30+ days.
Bitcoin rejected the breakdown move yesterday - setting up another attempt at a THIRD sideways FLAG formation in an EPP pattern. This is very unusual - but given what the markets have been doing over the past 30 days - it is what it is.
More than likely, we'll see Bitcoin rally a bit higher (near $100k), then stall again and attempt another breakdown event.
Yesterday's new low suggests a breakdown is likely.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Gold may continue to fall
The gold price has been in a wide range of fluctuations in the near future, forming a clear descending wedge (blue downward trend line) and an ascending channel (red trend line). The current gold price is running around the 2,668 level, showing certain short-term correction pressure.
At present, we can clearly see the correction path of gold from the previous high to the low. The price is currently hovering between the 0.618 ($2,670) and 0.5 ($2,654) levels, showing that this area is a key point for both bulls and bears to fight over. If the price continues to fail to break through the 0.618 level, it may usher in a larger decline, with the target possibly pointing to the support level of 0.382 ($2,637) or even 0.236 ($2,617).
The hourly rising channel shows that gold as a whole still maintains a mild upward trend, but recently the price has shown significant signs of a correction after encountering resistance at the upper edge of the upper channel. The price has failed to test this resistance area several times and then moved downward, indicating that this level is an important resistance area. The key support level below can focus on the lower edge of the red channel and the price corresponding to Fibonacci 0.236.
In the short term, if the gold price falls below $2,654, it will confirm the head and shoulders top pattern (implying left shoulder, head and right shoulder structure), further opening up the downside space, with the target pointing to the $2,617 to $2,584 area. However, if the metal can once again break above $2,670 and hold above it, it could resume its upward momentum and test the previous highs.
Overall, the current gold price is in a stage of long-short tug-of-war, and we need to pay close attention to the breakthrough of the Fibonacci key levels and channel boundaries. From the perspective of trading strategy, in the short term, we can focus on the breakthrough direction of the $2,654 and $2,670 areas, adjust positions and maintain flexibility.
GOLD Is Going Up! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 2,621.75.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 2,686.96 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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XAU/USD : Reasons for Falling! (READ THE CAPTION)In the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after reaching $2697 and hitting all targets last Friday, gold eventually closed around the $2690 zone. Today, gold showed a bearish sentiment, dropping by over 300 pips and correcting to as low as $2664.
Currently, gold is trading around $2670, and if it stabilizes below this level within the next 4 hours, further declines can be expected. Potential bearish targets are $2663, $2658.8, and $2652.5, respectively.
This analysis will be updated soon, so stay tuned for a trading setup in the lower timeframes!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
XAU/USD Gold Long Trade before 20-Jan-2025The market is showing a bullish move according to technical analysis, before 20-jan-2025, the market can either take support from the small trend line and go bullish or retest the zone of 2630 and give a bullish move. This analysis is only for learning purposes. Please calculate your risk before making any trade. The bullish side target is 2730 before 20th Jan 2025.
GOLD: Buy or Sell ?Dear friends, Ben here!
Gold begins the new week with a slight decline, retreating from the one-month high reached on Friday. Hawkish expectations from the Fed, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and a stronger USD are weighing on the precious metal in the short term. On the other hand, risk-off sentiment might provide support for the safe-haven pair XAU/USD and help limit further losses. :)
From a technical perspective, gold confirmed a bullish breakout from a month-long symmetrical triangle pattern on January 8, further reinforcing the ongoing bullish momentum. It is likely that the struggle will continue, and the price may retest the previously broken boundary or the liquidity zone at 2675–2665, which will determine the next phase of developments.
Resistance level: 2698
Support levels: 2685, 2665
The situation remains volatile, as numerous factors are exerting pressure on the price.
Accordingly: If, after the retest, buyers manage to hold the price above the 2680–2685 support zone, the upward momentum could continue in the medium term.
However, if the bullish support structure breaks and sellers push the price below 2680, this could trigger a correction down to 2665 or 2650 before the uptrend resumes.
EURAUD - Short SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels.
In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower, this indicates on probable distribution Wyckoff range.
But to take more statistically probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and in this case we can notice sign of weakness (reaching the middle of the range), so potentially there is a higher probability to see price lower.
Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Potential bullish rise?The Gold (XAU/USD) has reacted off the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 2,658.19
1st Support: 2,637.52
1st Resistance: 2,689.56
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Gold fell back after an unsuccessful breakout
Recently, the price of gold has been fluctuating upward, successfully breaking through the previous channel structure and once reaching the $2,700 level. However, after the high, the market momentum has weakened significantly, and the upward trend failed to continue during today's Asian and European sessions. After the opening of the US market, the price of gold quickly turned downward, breaking through the key support of $2,680, and returned to the previous channel.
From a technical point of view, the short-term high point of the gold price has gradually moved down, and the market has shown a clear weak trend. The price has formed a rhythm of "fast decline and slow rise" in the fluctuation, and the short-selling force is dominant. At present, the $2,664-2,660 area below has become an important short-term support level. If this position is effectively broken, the price is expected to further test the key support level of $2,650. On the upside, pay attention to the $2,680-2,675 area. If the pressure level at the top of this channel can be broken, the gold price may usher in another opportunity for a rebound.
The strength of the price trend shows that the long and short forces are alternately strengthened, but the short trend is slightly dominant; the RSI indicator hovers below the neutral area, indicating that market sentiment tends to be conservative. From the daily level, gold failed to break through and turned to a correction, and the overall trend is bearish.
In general, gold is still in the stage of falling after multiple failed upward explorations. In terms of operation strategy, it is recommended to focus on rebound shorting, and pay attention to the reaction of the key pressure area of 2675-2680 US dollars above. If it falls below 2660 US dollars, short orders can be considered to follow up gradually, looking at 2650 US dollars or even lower levels. It is necessary to pay close attention to market news, especially the potential impact of the Fed's policy trends and changes in the US dollar index on gold.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Intraday Bullish Confirmation?!
I really like how Gold reacted to the underlined daily/intraday
horizontal support after a pullback.
The price formed a nice indecision candle - doji first,
then we see a nice bullish imbalance - the engulfing candle.
I think that the market can continue rising.
Next intraday resistance - 2678
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WILL GOLD'S H4 WEAKNESS LEAD TO MORE PRICE DECLINE?Gold is showing weakness on the H4 timeframe with a heavy price fall below a swing low in yesterday's trading. The metal's price is now rising toward a previously created resistance level. Will there be a price rejection at the resistance level, or will the price zoom past it to create another swing high?
N.B!
- XAUUSD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#gold
#xauusd
USD soars, GOLD corrects but conditions remain bullishAfter last week's surge, OANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading suddenly suffered a fierce correction and the upward momentum was limited. US bond yields soared, the US Dollar strengthened and investors' profit-taking activities affected the trend of gold. In addition, news of a ceasefire in the Middle East also negatively impacted gold prices.
OANDA:XAUUSD fell again as US Treasury yields rose to their highest since November 2023. The US Dollar Index surpassed 110.00 in trading on Monday, pressuring gold prices.
The dollar index rose to its highest since November 2022 after the US jobs report emphasized the strength of the economy and clouded the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A rising Dollar will make gold less attractive.
The latest New York Fed survey shows one-year inflation expectations at 3% and interest rate futures traders are pricing in a Fed rate cut this year of less than 25 basis points. copies, or less than once.
Because gold does not generate interest, a high interest rate environment reduces its appeal to investors.
A ceasefire in Gaza could take place as early as this week
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told Bloomberg on Monday that the Biden administration believes a ceasefire in Gaza could be reached as early as this week. He added that there was no guarantee that all parties would agree to such a deal.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Sullivan said US President Joe Biden's administration has contacted Trump's newly elected team and is looking to form a united front on this issue before the transfer of power in Washington on January 20.
Previously, Britain's Reuters quoted officials familiar with the negotiation process as saying on Monday that mediators had submitted a draft "final agreement" to the warring parties on a ceasefire and the release of children. believe. Officials said that in addition to delegations from both Israel and Kazakhstan, current US President McGurk and President-elect Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff were also present at the peace talks. hosted by Qatar Prime Minister Mohammed in Doha.
Reuters said the talks achieved a breakthrough after midnight on Sunday and mediators led by Qatar immediately submitted a draft ceasefire agreement to Israel and Kazakhstan.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Although gold has adjusted down significantly from the important confluence level, readers should pay attention to previous publications at the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% confluence with the upper edge of the green price channel and one side of the triangle. purple price. But the downside correction was also limited after reaching target support at the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Currently, gold is recovering from the 0.50% Fibonacci level, but first it needs to break the technical point of 2,676 USD, then the target is around 2,693 - 2,700 USD in the short term.
Up to now, gold still has conditions to increase technically with supporting factors from EMA21, POC Volume Profile and the green short-term rising price channel.
Along with that, the Relative Strength Index maintained its activity above 50, also quite far from the overbought area, showing that there is still room for price increases ahead.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold is bullish with notable points listed as follows.
Support: 2,664 – 2,650USD
Resistance: 2,693 – 2,700USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2688 - 2686⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2692
→Take Profit 1 2681
↨
→Take Profit 2 2676
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2644 - 2646⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2640
→Take Profit 1 2651
↨
→Take Profit 2 2656
XAUUSD H1 | Bearish Fall off?Based on the H1 chart the price is approaching our sell entry level at 2,681.62, which is a pullback resistance near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This level is expected to act as a potential reversal point in the bearish setup.
Our take profit is set at 2,665.01, just above the recent swing low, marking a significant support level.
The stop loss is set at 2,697.95, a swing high resistance zone, providing room for price fluctuations while protecting against invalidation of the bearish setup.
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