Disappointing ADP Data Draws Buyers Back to GoldGold surged to around $3,373/oz today, rising over $22 compared to the same time yesterday, after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data sparked fresh demand for safe-haven assets.
According to ADP, the U.S. private sector added just 37,000 jobs in May—far below the 115,000 forecast and April’s 60,000. The sharp slowdown in hiring suggests growing cracks in the U.S. labor market.
This soft data has fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon cut interest rates. With rising concerns over economic slowdown and global uncertainty, investors are increasingly turning to gold for protection.
With strong fundamental support, gold’s bullish momentum looks set to continue in the short term.
Metals
XAUUSD M30 I Bullish Bounce Off Based on the M30 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 3360.09, a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 3385.09, an overlap resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 3344.31, a swing low support.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
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XAU/USD) Technical analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of Gold (XAUUSD) on the 1-hour timeframe. Here's a breakdown of the key ideas in the analysis:
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Chart Elements:
Support Level (Yellow Zone at ~3,340–3,350):
This area has been highlighted as a key support zone where price has bounced previously.
Price is currently hovering just above this level.
Downtrend Line:
A descending trendline is drawn, indicating a short-term bearish trend.
A breakout above this line could trigger bullish momentum.
Two Scenarios Outlined:
Bullish Scenario:
If price breaks the downtrend and holds above support, it may rally towards the upper target point at 3,419.68.
Bearish Scenario:
If price breaks below the support, the next target point is marked lower around 3,300.62, a previous consolidation area and close to the 200 EMA (blue line).
200 EMA (~3,324.72):
Acts as dynamic support. If price moves below it, bearish sentiment may increase.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
RSI is neutral (~50.54), not showing overbought or oversold signals, leaving room for movement in either direction.
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Key Takeaways:
Neutral-Biased Setup: The price is consolidating between a clear support level and downtrend resistance.
Confirmation Needed: A breakout from either direction is necessary to confirm the next move.
Bullish Breakout: May lead to a retest of highs at 3,419.68.
Bearish Breakdown: Could push the price toward 3,300.62, aligned with past support and the 200 EMA.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Trading Ideas (based on this analysis):
Long Entry: On breakout above the downtrend line + confirmation above 3,360.
Short Entry: On breakdown below 3,340 with strong volume.
Stop-Loss: Just outside the consolidation zone depending on trade direction.
Risk Management: Be cautious around economic news (calendar icons shown suggest upcoming events).
Please support boost this analysis )
Silver ready to outperform Gold? Finally, silver is breaking to the upside out of the April–May consolidation, and so far there’s been a strong push above the 33.70 resistance, and with the market closing well above that level, it confirms that bulls remain in control and could stay in charge after any near-term dips. Ideally, we are now in the third leg of recovery, which could extend beyond the October 2024 highs around 34.87. Once that level is cleared, the third leg may continue higher within a higher degree wave five, possibly targeting the 36–37 zone.
At the same time, we also see the gold-silver ratio coming down from the 61.8% area, which is another signal suggesting the metals are in a broader bull run, with silver now likely to outperform gold until those 36–37 targets are reached.
Grega
XAGUSD H4 I Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 33.61, a pullback support.
Our take profit is set at 34.71, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 32.60, a swing low support.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
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GLD Swing Trade Setup – 6/18 $320 Call for 5–10 Day Breakout Mov🟡 GLD Swing Trade Setup – 6/18 $320 Call for 5–10 Day Breakout Move
📅 Trade Date: June 4, 2025 | 📈 Timeframe: 5–10 Day Swing
🎯 Playing a bullish continuation with defined risk & strong confidence
🧠 Multi-Model Consensus
Model Bias Strategy Strike Entry PT SL Confidence
Composite Mod. Bullish Long Call 320 1.68 2.52 0.84 75%
🔎 Technical & Sentiment Overview
Weekly Chart: Price > EMAs, clean bullish MACD crossover
15-min Chart: Consolidating near $311–$313 support, breakout forming
Sentiment: Bullish news tailwinds (gold demand, USD weakening)
Max Pain: $308 = short-term pullback risk
Implied Volatility: Stable with limited crush risk
Options Flow: Moderate OI build in $313–$325 calls, upward bias
🎯 Trade Setup – Long GLD Call
Instrument: GLD
Direction: CALL (LONG)
Strike: $320.00
Expiry: 2025-06-18
Entry Price: $1.68
Profit Target: $2.52 (50% gain)
Stop Loss: $0.84 (50% loss)
Size: 1 contract
Entry Timing: Market open
Confidence: 75%
⚠️ Risk Management & Considerations
🛑 SL Discipline: Exit if premium drops to $0.84
🕒 Time Stop: Exit within 7–10 days if trade stagnates
🔁 News Risk: Watch for economic releases and dollar strength reversals
⚖️ Support Check: Must hold $310.50 zone on M15 chart
✅ Trade Thesis Summary
With GLD holding bullish structure on higher timeframes, models show strong agreement on upside continuation. We're targeting the $320 breakout with a controlled-risk weekly option.
GOLD REVERESED! Looking for the breakout!We got some news Tuesday that shifted the direction of the pullback and now looking like we might just break out. if we can make it above yesterdays highs and closed on the H4 then I think it will be safe to look for higher levels. but if it breaks down from here then we could still see it reach for Liquidity. We just have to be patient in waiting for price to show its hand.
Ascending triangle on gold: $3,280 or $3,560 next? Gold has climbed following softer-than-expected US economic data, which has strengthened speculation for at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. ADP employment figures showed just 37K new jobs, well below the 111K forecast.
President Donald Trump, posting on Truth Social, called on “too slow” Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates immediately.
The repeated tests of the $3,400 level suggest that selling pressure at this zone could be weakening. Lower interest rates tend to support gold prices, as the metal offers no yield. However, a daily close below the recent swing low of $3,280 would undermine the pattern.
Bullish continuation?The Gold (XAU/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 3,348.00
1st Support: 3,285.23
1st Resistance: 3,436.17
Risk Warning:
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The latest gold trend analysis strategy on June 4:
1. Analysis of core driving factors
Short-term bearish factors
The dollar rebounded: the US dollar index rebounded from a 6-week low, suppressing gold prices.
Risk sentiment warmed up: risk assets such as stocks rose, weakening safe-haven demand, and some longs took profits and left the market.
Medium- and long-term bullish support
Geopolitical risks (no progress in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, escalating Sino-US trade frictions)
Federal Reserve dovish expectations
US fiscal deficit expansion (long-term weakening of US dollar credit, good for gold)
Key event guidance
Friday's non-agricultural data: If the employment data is weaker than expected, it may strengthen the Fed's expectations of rate cuts, which is good for gold; on the contrary, if the data is strong, the US dollar may rebound and gold will be under pressure.
2. Technical key signals (1-hour chart)
✅ Moving average system: 1-hour MA5/MA10 golden cross, short-term trend is bullish.
✅ Key support: 3333 (strong rebound after Tuesday's pullback, long defensive position).
✅ Key resistance: 3370-3380 (if broken, it will go up to the 3400 psychological level).
⚠️ Risk warning: If it falls below 3350, it may fall back to the support zone of 3330-3320, and we need to be alert to the weakening trend.
III. Today's gold trading strategy
1. Main strategy: long on pullback (follow the trend)
Ideal entry point: 3320-3325 (intervene after confirming support after falling back).
Stop loss: below 3310 (to prevent false breakthroughs).
Target: 3370-3380 (first target), look at 3400 after breaking through.
2. Secondary strategy: short on rebound (cautious operation)
Trigger condition: the price touches 3380 for the first time and there is a stagflation signal (such as a long upper shadow line, MACD top divergence).
Stop loss: above 3385 (strict risk control).
Target: 3360-3355 (quick entry and exit).
4. Change signals that need to be paid attention to
Break above 3380: It may accelerate to 3400, and short orders should be avoided.
Falling below 3340-3350: Be wary of a waterfall-like plunge and pay attention to the support area of 3330-3320 below.
Non-agricultural outlook: ADP data on Thursday may trigger fluctuations in advance, and it is recommended to deal with it with a light position.
5. Summary and suggestions
Overall thinking: The short-term trend is still bullish, but we need to be wary of the risk of callback brought by the rebound of the US dollar.
Best opportunity: Wait for a retracement to stabilize near 3320 and then buy low and buy more, and avoid chasing the rise.
Risk control: Strictly stop loss, reduce positions before non-agricultural data to prevent data shocks.
GOLD - WAVE 4 CORRECTION TO $2,800 (UPDATE)One important thing to note is that Gold buyers broke above the 0.618 Fib level yesterday, followed by a retest today & currently rejecting back to the upside. This 0.618% Fib zone was previously holding as 'resistance', which could now likely be holding as 'support' for buyers.
It is important to keep an eye out for these small details on market structure, as they could indicate early signs of a trend change.
GOLD: Strong Bullish Sentiment! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 3,373.30 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 3,383.29.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
SILVER: Bears Are Winning! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 34.443 Therefore, a strong bearish reaction here could determine the next move down.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 34.354..Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Another powerful day in the markets with our chart idea unfolding exactly as anticipated.
In yesterday’s update, we highlighted that all our targets 3305, 3334, and 3359 were hit following the EMA5 cross and lock confirmation. We also pointed out the EMA5 lock above 3359, opening a clear gap to 3389, which was also hit perfectly. The absence of a further EMA5 lock above confirmed a precise rejection, sending price back down into the lower Goldturns for support, just as projected. We then had the bounce off the 3334 level, another clean reaction, just like we stated.
Now today, after testing and bouncing from 3334 into 3359, price is now charging back toward 3389 for a potential retest, as that level remains open once again.
The structure is playing out beautifully, we will stick to the plan, and manage risk wisely.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips and track the movement with ema5 lock or rejection. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3305 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3305 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3334 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3334 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3359 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3359 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3389 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3389 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3428
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3428 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3478
BEARISH TARGETS
3271
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3271 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3227
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3227 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3185
3146
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD - WAVE 4 CORRECTION TO $2,800 (UPDATE)The 'resistance turned support' which I mentioned yesterday is holding up well. After the retest of the support zone, we're currently seeing bullish momentum keep Gold prices up.
As soon as Gold surpasses $3,400 & closes WITHIN the previous 0.365% zone, I will be sure that the 3 Sub-Wave (A,B,C) correction for sellers is over & buyers are now heading towards a new ATH. Until then I am still wary & being careful of sellers.
MicroStrategy: The Dumbest Bet on WallStreetMicroStrategy: The Bitcoin Bet Masquerading as a Tech Company
Introduction: A Software Company Turned Crypto Casino
Once upon a time, MicroStrategy was a business intelligence firm. Today, it’s a Bitcoin holding company disguised as a software business.
Its market cap has ballooned to over $100 billion, not because of its software, but because of its aggressive Bitcoin purchases. Investors aren’t buying a company—they’re buying a leveraged bet on Bitcoin.
And that bet? It’s built on debt, dilution, and dangerous financial engineering.
The Math Problem: MicroStrategy’s Obscene Valuation
MicroStrategy is worth three times the value of its Bitcoin holdings. Let that sink in.
If you buy MicroStrategy stock, you’re effectively paying three times the price of Bitcoin. It’s like buying Bitcoin at $245,000 per coin when the actual market price is far lower.
This isn’t investing, it’s financial insanity.
The Debt Trap: How MicroStrategy Keeps the Illusion Alive
MicroStrategy’s entire strategy revolves around issuing debt to buy more Bitcoin. It has borrowed $7.27 billion through convertible bonds.
Here’s how the cycle works:
MicroStrategy issues debt at low interest rates.
It uses the money to buy Bitcoin.
The stock price rises because investors think it’s a genius move.
The company issues more shares to raise more money.
It buys more Bitcoin—and the cycle repeats.
This is not a sustainable business model. It’s a Ponzi-like structure that depends entirely on Bitcoin’s price continuing to rise.
The Accounting Trick: Hiding the Losses
MicroStrategy has been misleading investors with custom financial metrics. It created terms like BTC Yield and BTC $ Gain to make its Bitcoin strategy look profitable.
But in reality? It recently disclosed a $5.91 billion unrealized loss on its Bitcoin holdings. And when that news broke, its stock dropped 8.67% in a single day.
This isn’t a company, it’s a high-stakes gamble.
The Risk: What Happens When the Bubble Bursts?
MicroStrategy’s survival depends on Bitcoin’s price never crashing. If Bitcoin falls, MicroStrategy’s stock collapses.
And here’s the worst part:
If Bitcoin crashes, MicroStrategy might have to sell its holdings, triggering a death spiral.
If investors lose confidence, the company can’t issue more debt, and the illusion falls apart.
If regulators step in, MicroStrategy’s entire strategy could be dismantled.
This isn’t a safe investment. It’s a ticking time bomb.
Conclusion: The Dumbest Bet on Wall Street
MicroStrategy isn’t a tech company. It’s a leveraged Bitcoin casino.
Investors aren’t buying innovation, they’re buying hype, debt, and financial engineering. And when the illusion fades, reality will come crashing down.
So ask yourself: Are you investing in a business? Or are you just buying the dream—before it bursts?
GOLD Trading Opportunity! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the GOLD next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 3344.4
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 3358.5
My Stop Loss - 3336.9
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GOLD: Short Trade Explained
GOLD
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short GOLD
Entry Point - 3365.4
Stop Loss - 3372.6
Take Profit - 3352.8
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Market situation unclear? Check out this analysis📰 Impact of news:
1. ADP data is significantly positive
2. Trump: "Mr. Too Late" Fed Chairman Powell must cut interest rates now
📈 Market analysis:
The ADP data is significantly bullish, but we cannot rule out that this is an illusion created by the market, because although the daily line has formed a golden cross, it has not fully released the bullish momentum, and has not been able to exert force in the bullish upward trend. Therefore, I prefer to go long at a low position in the US market rather than chasing it immediately. At the same time, the upper 3365 may become a short-term strong pressure level. If the gold price encounters resistance here, the US market will usher in a retracement, and then it will be our time to go long.
🏅 Trading strategies:
SELL 3360-3365
TP 3340-3330
BUY 3330-3317
TP 3360-3370-3400
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-3 : Carryover in Carryover modeToday's pattern suggests we may see more upward price consolidation/trending.
As many of you already know, I've been tracking the Excess Phase Peak pattern all the way up this incredible rally from the $480 lows on the SPY. In my opinion, we have moved into the "island" topping phase where price is struggling to break either upward or downward right now.
Currently, price seems to be attempting to break to the upside after yesterday's meltup. Today should be interesting because we could see solid REJECTION of yesterday's move with a big breakdown move. We'll see how things play out.
The SPY trend is still BULLISH based on my research. Thus, until and IF we get a breakdown, traders should continue to expect a MELT UP type of trend in the SPY/QQQ.
Hedging trades is a good idea right now.
Gold and Silver had a big move early this week and have not stalled into a sideways FLAGGING trend. By my estimates, the APEX of the flag will come near 1900-2100 today (Wednesday 6-3). That is when I think Gold/Silver will attempt to move into extreme volatility and attempt to make another big move.
I hope it is to continue the upside price trend, as this breakout move needs to push higher (breaking recent highs) for metals to move into a new dominant upward price trend.
BTCUSD is trading sideways - possibly setting up that DOUBLE-TOP pattern I suggested was going to take place on 5-20-25. Now, with Bitcoin leading the US markets by about 3-5 days (on average), we'll see if BTCUSD can attempt to move into another rally phase or if BTCUSD breaks below the $103k level and moves into a new downward price phase.
In my opinion, look out below.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
GOLD → Consolidation before a strong move...FX:XAUUSD is consolidating after a false breakout of resistance at 3365, awaiting economic data. The metal remains attractive to investors amid the economic crisis.
Gold is supported by the weakening dollar amid increased trade risks. Today, US tariffs on steel and aluminum come into force, and Trump's ultimatum to trading partners expires. Investors are also awaiting news of a possible meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping amid new accusations against China. The focus is on key employment data (ADP) and the ISM services index, which could influence the dollar and expectations for the Fed's actions.
Technically, the market may test the 3323 liquidity zone before continuing its growth.
Resistance levels: 3365, 3391
Support levels: 3345, 3323, 3303
Overall, both the global and local trends are bullish, with the price forming a local correction after a false breakout of resistance. If the bulls hold their ground above 3323-3345 after retesting support, growth may continue in the short to medium term.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Shoulder on Shoulder - Need a dump this Week😥 The past week was complicated, and I don't want to bore you with all the political goings-on, which I hope you're already aware of. I'm a bit short on time right now, but I still wanted to share this perspective with you all.
💁♂️ It is Shoulder on Shoulder H&S everywhere!
💡 My concept of a plan:
🧗 Let's climb the Pinky way down
3289 - Actual Price
3271 - 🏁 S1
3232 - 🚪 Pink Neckline entry
3245 - 🤞 S2 & Head of White reverse H&S
3204 - 👀 Pink Start from Left Shoulder
3184 - 🎯 TP 1 - Fibo 1.272
3163 - 🎯 TP 2 - Fibo 1.414 or 3166
3134 - 🎯 TP 3 - Fibo 1.618 or 3154
3120 - 👀 Head of Yellow reverse H&S
3079 - 🎯 TP 4 - Fibo 2
🗣️ Important: FED Chair Powell speaking June 02 Mon at 1 PM EDT
What are your toughts about this? Please write it in the comments.
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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
XAU/USD (Gold vs USD)📏 Trendlines:
Red descending trendline = consistent lower highs → selling pressure increases.
Horizontal red support line (~3349) = price tested multiple times, but no strong bounce.
📦 Chart Patterns:
Multiple bear flag formations marked in green = typical continuation patterns in downtrends.
Suggests repeated attempts to rally are being sold into.
🟣 Support & Resistance:
Immediate resistance: Downtrend line (~3355–3360).
Key support level: 3349 (horizontal red line).
Breakdown target: 3332.685 (blue horizontal line) and further to ~3310 zone.
🧭 Price Projection:
🚨 Expect a potential pullback to the trendline (~3355), which may reject again.
📉 If 3349 support breaks, a strong drop to 3332 is likely.
Final bearish target: ~3310 level, aligning with the magenta arrow.
📌 Conclusion:
⚠️ Bias: Bearish under 3355.
🧨 Watch for breakdown confirmation below 3349 to trigger short positions.
🕵️♂️ Be cautious of false breakouts; wait for candle close confirmation.