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THE KOG REPORT - NFPTHE KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’ve had an extremely decent week on the markets so please take it easy and remember the trade comes after they have made the move. Let them take it to where they want, wait for the exhaustion, identify the reversal, and then look for the trade. Most likely, the best trades come next week! We have the breakout we were looking for out of the 2650-55 region which has now flipped. The resistance above is sitting at 2680-85 and above that 2695-2700. This level needs to be watched, a RIP here and we could see this come all the way back down into the order region again 2655-60 with extension of the move. This region for us would represent an opportunity to take the long trade back for the shorter capture. On the flip, if they take this down during the move, we’ll be looking at the levels below shown on the chart, 2660-55 is a key level, our bias stands at 2645 in extension of the move. These levels may give us opportunities to then long back up if the higher levels are untouched! Although all our bullish targets completed yesterday, we’ll share the Red box levels below as a guide for the intra-day strategy. KOG’s Bias for the day: Bullish above 2645 with targets above 2685, 2694 and 2700 Bearish on break of 2645 with targets below 2635 RED BOXES Break above 2691 for 2700, 2702, 2710 in extension of the move Break below 2675 for 2668, 2655 and 2645 in extension of the move The circled question marks on the chart are our hot spots! Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
8
GOLD → The market is nervous ahead of NFP. What's next?$FXCM:XAUUSD continues its strong upward movement, but along with the growth there are growing risks of a strong fall. NFP is ahead, and the situation is quite tense.... Fundamentally the situation is confusing, the main nuance is Trump's policy and the hawkish stance of the Fed, which creates pressure on the market, but gold, as we see, is rising due to the growing economic and geopolitical risks associated with Trump's policy, the crisis in the Middle East, Eastern Europe and economic problems in China. NFP is ahead, which creates additional risks: either an aggressive rise or a breakdown of strong support and the formation of a strong downward momentum. A weaker NFP may bring back expectations of an aggressive Fed rate cut, causing a broad correction in the US dollar, which could favor gold. Conversely, an upside surprise in NFP and wage inflation data could reinforce hawkish Fed rate hikes. Resistance levels: 2678, channel, 2693 Support levels: 2675, 2671, 2665 Technically, a strong bullish structure is forming. A break of resistance and favorable news could strengthen the rise to 2700. But, there is an additional scenario: Break of support of the rising structure or 2665 - 2671 may provoke capitulation and fall to 2655 - 2640. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
26
HelenP. I Gold will correct and then continue rise in channelHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. If we look at the chart we can see how the price rebounded from support 1 and then dropped to the trend line, thereby breaking support 2, which coincided with the support zone. After this, the price started to grow inside the upward channel, where it soon broke support 2 one more time but later made a correction back to the trend line. Some time later Gold finally broke support 2 and then made a retest, after which some time traded near this level and even made a fake breakout of it with a trend line. After this, the price backed up to the channel and continued to grow and later reached support 1, which coincided with the resistance zone and broke this level. Gold rose to the resistance line of the channel and then made a correction movement to the trend line (support line of the channel) and then quickly backed up to the resistance zone. At the moment, the price continues to trades in this area and I think that XAUUSD will make a correction below the support level and then continue to grow inside the upward channel. For this case, I set my goal at 2670 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FirstNameHelen
5
Analysis of the latest gold market trends: Analysis of gold news: After two consecutive days of gains, gold prices are currently rising slightly on Thursday (January 9), trading around $2,671. Although market risk sentiment, geopolitical risks and trade risk concerns continue to support the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, the prospect that the Federal Reserve may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts has boosted the US dollar, thus putting pressure on gold with no yield attributes. The US dollar is currently holding near the two-year high hit last week, further weakening the upward momentum of gold. The rise in risk aversion has pushed US Treasury yields to a slight correction, which to some extent has suppressed the willingness of US dollar bulls to increase their positions and also limited the downside of gold prices. However, the market may be inclined to stay on the sidelines as it awaits Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report. In addition, speeches by several members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have become the focus of short-term trading opportunities during the US trading session on Thursday. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting showed that policymakers believed that labor market conditions were gradually easing, while supporting a slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts to respond to signs of stagnation in inflation deceleration. Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to its highest level since April 25 last year on Wednesday, providing support for the dollar and becoming another factor weighing on gold prices. Additionally, geopolitical tensions have also provided some support for gold prices. CNN reported that US President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide a legal basis for universal tariffs on allies and opponents. In addition, Israel continues to carry out air strikes on the West Bank. Technical analysis of gold: From the current market, the lows are moving up and the highs are refreshing. The positive trend of gold the next day fully demonstrates that short-term bulls are taking the initiative, which will undoubtedly increase the probability of gold prices hitting 2670, but as mentioned above, we also need to be prepared for a false break or a real break in the market. From a technical perspective, the daily line is driven by the continuous positive pattern, resulting in the price running effectively above the short-term moving average and the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the short-term moving average is in an upward pattern at 2645 and 2638 respectively. Other periodic indicators maintain a bullish arrangement, and the macd indicator is in a golden cross upward pattern, so the bulls have the conditions to test strong pressure. However, given that the overall closing of the Bollinger Band has not yet formed a favorable pattern for the bulls, and secondly, the upper high point 2670 is under effective pressure, so while the daily line is bullish overall, it is also necessary to guard against a high and fall in the gold price. From the perspective of gold 4 hours, after yesterday's pull-up, the price effectively crossed the short-term moving average and the middle and upper rails of Bollinger, and the strength of the bulls was reflected. However, as the gold price fell from the high this morning, it is now running below the upper rail of Bollinger and near the 5-day moving average. The short-term moving average is rising as a whole, but other periodic indicators continue to follow, and the Bollinger band is opening as a whole. In addition, the double lines of the macd indicator extend upward in a golden cross pattern, showing signs of upward volume. Therefore, the overall 4-hour level tends to rebound. Intraday operation suggestions: The main idea is to go long on the callback low. For the support below, focus on the 2647-2650 area, and continue to look at the 2670-2680 area above. If the bears break down strongly, it means that the downward space will expand. At that time, you can see the test of the support around 2638. Here, as a strong support shown by the adhesion of the daily 10-day moving average and the 20-day moving average, you can still boldly try to layout multiple orders. For upper suppression, first focus on the 2672-2675 area. If bulls want to achieve strength, they must break through and stabilize this area, otherwise the time period for shorts to control the market will be lengthened. Overall, the short-term operation strategy for gold today is mainly based on low-level bullishness, supplemented by high-level rebounds. The upper short-term focus is on the 2685-2690 line of resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on the 2660-2655 line of support. Operation suggestions: For the first time, gold fell back to 2658-2660 to go long, with a stop loss of 2650 and a target of 2672-2675.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Caesar_Gorman01
2
Gold: Bullish Breakout and Correction PossibilitiesGold Technical Analysis The price has stabilized in the bullish zone after breaking above 2665. As we mentioned earlier, stability above 2665 would lead to a move towards 2678. The price has already broken 2678, indicating that the bullish trend is likely to continue towards 2690 and 2706. However, there is a possibility of a correction, which could bring the price back to 2672 or 2665. Key Levels Pivot Point: 2678 Resistance Levels: 2690, 2706, 2720 Support Levels: 2665, 2636, 2623 Trend Outlook Bullish trend above 2678 Bearish while Below 2673
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SroshMayi
GOLD: Day 3 breakout traders long up high, NFP day!Hello everyone and welcome back to my channel, please don't forget to support my hard work, and feel free to share your observations if you have any, sharing is the key of improvement! Gold, since the beginning of the week is creeping breaking higher, potentially trapping volume up high for a great, amazing sell off by the end of the day, completing the weekly pump and dump scenario. To understand better the logic behind this forecast, let's analyse the week and remember two very important things! 1. I'm not trying to predict the market, my observation is not regarding any direction move, but I'm underlining the SETUP I'm looking for, more probable and profitable for the day. 2. I would never take any trade before NFP release! Let's see deeply the week: Monday, opening range of the week, established the high low of week, placing a peak formation high and a peak formation low. Tuesday, eventually broke higher and dumped back down into Monday's high, consolidating just above that level, typical of trend trade template. Wednesday a long setup went through the high of week (HOW) and as well broke higher the previous HOW, the trend trade setup was identified as a dump and pump in the day itself. The day closed back inside the daily range, and a peak formation high was in place. Thursday, the market pumped again into the HOW, breaking higher and triggering for the third time breakout traders long in the market, closing the day out of balance (out of the previous weekly boundary). Today, Friday, the market retested again the HOW, essentially is still in breakout and still trending higher, but this kind of behaviour, where the price action is mostly "creepy" and not really strong trending, is very similar to past scenarios already happened where NFP cleaned all the traders long which they didn't take profit or still holding hoping for more profit. How can you take advantage of this? I want to see the market consolidating up high till the NFP release at 8:30am NYT, looking for a sell high opportunity. If not, because the market can be really volatile during this day, after the news I can be looking for a short continuation. What about a long thesis? Can the market keep going higher? The answer is, absolutely yes, the market can explode in the long direction, forecasting is just the same as gambling. So, the real question is, which setup do you have and which setup are you hunting!? In the next update, I will share the potential 2 setups for the day Gianni
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by GianniPichichero
25
XAUUSD - The NFP indicator will determine the direction of gold!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. In case of weakness in the data of the employment market and increase in the unemployment rate, you can look for opportunities to buy gold. A lower-than-expected unemployment rate release and a strong NFP headline will lead to a breakout of the bullish and bearish channel in gold. While most major economies are expected to pursue expansionary monetary policies this year, the pace of these measures will likely slow. According to Bloomberg’s forecast, the overall interest rate index in advanced economies is projected to decrease by only 72 basis points in 2025, which is lower than the rate of decline in 2024. Donald Trump, with his electoral promises and economic policies, has become a source of concern for central banks worldwide.If Trump enforces his threats to impose trade tariffs, these policies could harm economic growth and, in the case of retaliatory measures, drive up consumer prices. Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) highlighted the “complex” impacts of Trump’s proposed tariffs on metal prices in a recent note. The proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada—two of the main suppliers of metals to the U.S.—are expected to have both direct and indirect effects on the market. The bank identified two main concerns. First, the potential negative impact on global growth and the fundamentals of the metals market, particularly if the tariffs escalate into a full-blown trade war. However, BofA predicts that a more “measured approach to trade barriers is likely to prevail,” which would mitigate the overall damage. Second, regional metal prices will need to adjust to the potential tariffs. Bank of America warned that tariffs could strengthen the dollar, increase inflation, and lead to higher interest rates—all of which could pose challenges for the U.S. economy. Nevertheless, they concluded that metal prices are likely to stabilize after the initial volatility subsides, especially if the tariffs are targeted and investments in energy transition continue. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, downplayed expectations of continued monetary easing in 2025 during his December 18, 2024, press conference. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester’s dissenting vote against a rate cut was surprising, but the major shock to markets came from the Fed members’ projections (dot plot). The Fed members forecast only two rate cuts for 2025, signaling that the monetary easing cycle, which began in September 2024, will slow significantly in the coming year. Powell also admitted that inflation forecasts for the end of the year had been overly optimistic, suggesting that inflation is not yet fully under control. The Fed is increasingly concerned about Trump’s policies, as tools like tariffs could raise import prices and, subsequently, inflation. Forecasts for Friday’s NFP data: • Average estimate: 165K • Lowest estimate: 120K • Highest estimate: 190K The importance of the labor market for monetary policy has slightly diminished following Powell’s December 18 press conference. This indicates that the Fed has some confidence in easing price pressures stemming from the labor market. However, recent data suggests that the labor market has not fully cooled. The upcoming NFP report is expected to show a 160,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, while the unemployment rate and hourly wage growth are likely to remain steady at 4.2% and 4%, respectively. If these expectations are unmet, especially with job growth below 50,000, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in Q1 2025 will increase. Currently, markets anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut by June 2025, but this move could occur sooner if labor market data remains weak.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
GOLD BUY | Idea Trading AnalysisGOLD is moving in an UPWARD channel on ascending channel. The chart broke through the dynamic resistance, which now acts as support. We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level. Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity GOLD I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. ------------------- Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad
TVC:GOLDLong
by TheGrove
2
Gold Update: Sideways Consolidation ^ $2,800 => $2,400-$2,500Gold futures follow the path posted earlier (see related). It dropped quickly and deeply within a correction to hit the $2,542 mark. Next was a strong rebound that stalled just above $2.7k Then we saw a series of zigzags that shaped a small consolidation All of this indicates of the sideways consolidation pattern which implies the box type flat correction with top and bottom of the range defined by all-time high ($2,802) and the valley at $2,542. The height of the range is around 300 bucks. Next step for the price to retest or only touch the all-time high, further we might face another drop to retest the valley of $2,542 or even lower to touch the bottom of the bullish channel. Another downside target is at 38.2% Fib at $2,400. After that, the consolidation could be over and the bullish trend to resume with new impulse.
COMEX:GC1!
by aibek
World gold prices increased despite the high USD.Gold prices hit a near four-week high on safe-haven demand amid financial market turmoil. Investors sought safety amid concerns about Britain's finances and President-elect Donald Trump's economic policies. In Britain, concerns about the budget deficit sent the pound to its lowest in more than a year against the dollar, with 10-year government bond yields rising to 4.92% and the FTSE 250 index falling for a third straight day, raising concerns about the risk of global financial contagion. Meanwhile, market attention turns to Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show the number of new jobs in December fell to 160,000, compared with 227,000 in November. 🔥 XAUUSD SELL 2677 2679🔥 💵 TP1: 2665 💵 TP2: 2655 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2687
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
NFP focus, GOLD is reaching initial bullish conditionsOn Asian markets on Friday (January 10), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery maintains the intraday recovery trend and gold price is currently at about 2,672 USD/ounce, a range of about more than 1 dollar during the day as of the time of writing. Market participants turned their attention to the US nonfarm payrolls report. Today (Friday), the United States will release the closely watched non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to cause a big move in the gold market. Authoritative surveys show nonfarm payrolls in the United States would have increased by 160,000 last December, following a whopping 227,000 increase in November. US unemployment rate expected to fall maintained at 4.2% in December. The survey found that average hourly wages in the United States are expected to increase 0.3% month-over-month in December, following a 0.4% increase in November. Annual wage growth is likely maintained at 4%. Better-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls data is seen as positive for the dollar and vice versa. And of course, this greatly impacts the gold price trend. From a technical perspective, OANDA:XAUUSD is heading for the 4th consecutive day of increase but the real uptrend has not yet been clearly formed. However, the daily chart of gold prices has also achieved the initial technical conditions for a possible increase in price with price activity above EMA21, POC Volume Profile and the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. Currently, these indicators are becoming the closest support. An important factor for the uptrend to form is the level of 2,693USD, which is considered a technical confirmation point for a newly formed uptrend. Once it is broken above and gold sustains activity above this level, the next target is around $2,730 in the short term. The relative strength index RSI has also risen above 50. However, the slope is not large but it is still considered a positive signal for gold prices in the near future. During the day, gold had initial bullish technical conditions and notable levels are listed below. Support: 2,664 – 2,645 – 2,634USD Resistance: 2,693 – 2,700USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2691 - 2689⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2695 →Take Profit 1 2684 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2679 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2649 - 2651⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2545 →Take Profit 1 2656 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2661
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Could the Gold reverse from here?The price is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 2,676.61 1st Support: 2,646.94 1st Resistance: 2,700.39 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by ICmarkets
1
XAUUSD | Potential Move To 3100 with Bullish Pennant Formation.Technical Analysis XAUUSD shows strong potential to move towards the supply zone at 2749.63, followed by a possible pullback to the demand zone at 2581.85. This movement could form a bullish pennant pattern, which is a continuation pattern. A breakout from this pennant may lead to the -61.80% Fibonacci target at 3101.21. Below is a chart illustrating the potential movement towards the supply and demand zones: Supply and Demand Zones () Once the bullish pennant forms and a breakout occurs, the price could reach the -61.80% Fibonacci level, which is the typical target for such patterns. The next chart highlights this scenario: Breakout to Target () --- Fundamental Insights Fundamentally, rising inflation and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to support gold’s safe-haven appeal. Upcoming economic data, particularly from the U.S., will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and confirming the potential moves. --- Summary XAUUSD has significant potential for a move to 2749.63, followed by a pullback to 2581.85, which could form a bullish pennant. A breakout from the pennant might result in a move toward the -61.80% Fibonacci level at 3101.21. Traders should monitor price action and fundamental developments to validate this setup.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ProcessAndIntercept
GOLD → False Breakout. Can Buyers Recover?Hello, dear friends! Ben here! Gold has made a false breakout at $2,637 and is now searching for strong support. The current situation is highly complex, both fundamentally and technically. Fundamentally, the situation remains challenging. Gold's weakness is influenced by the Fed's hawkish stance and the strength of the US Dollar. However, upward pressure on gold persists due to other factors, including the escalation of conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, Trump’s protectionist policies targeting Europe and Asia, and rising geopolitical risks worldwide. Technically, after the false breakout at $2,637 (previously a resistance level), the price is now heading toward a new testing zone around $2,622. Below that, the ascending channel support at $2,606 could act as the lower boundary where buyers may start an aggressive play. Key Support Levels: $2,622, $2,606 Key Resistance Levels: $2,637, $2,647, $2,665 Overall, I lean toward a medium-term bearish trend. However, the local situation remains tense and complicated. If the bulls manage to hold their ground within the ascending channel, gold may continue its upward move. But! If buyers fail to maintain their position within the channel, a correction could extend the downward momentum further, leading to deeper declines. Best regards, Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold