GOLD - Price can continue to move up inside rising channelHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price started to trades inside flat, where it at once broke $2745 level, but soon fell back to support area.
Next, price bounced up to the top part of flat and then corrected back to support area, where it some time trades.
After this, Gold exited from support area and soon exited from flat and continued to move up inside rising channel.
In channel, price corrected to support line and then in a short time rose to $2850 level and broke it.
Then price reached resistance line of channel and fell to support area, after which it continued to move up.
So, I think that Gold can make a correction and then continue to move up to $2945 resistance line of channel.
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Metals
$GOLD EASES FROM RECORD HIGHS AHEAD OF U.S. INFLATION DATAGOLD EASES FROM RECORD HIGHS AHEAD OF U.S. INFLATION DATA
1/7
Gold hit a record high of $2,942.70/oz on Feb 11, fueled by safe-haven demand amid fresh U.S. tariffs. Today, it’s dipped 0.2% to $2,892.50 as investors take profits and watch U.S. inflation data. Let’s dig in! 💰⚖️
2/7 – RECENT PRICE ACTION
• All-time high at $2,942.70/oz—sparked by President Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel & aluminum
• Spot gold now at $2,892.50 (↓0.2%), with futures at $2,931.40 (↓0.1%)
• The rally’s paused—are we in for a short breather or a bigger correction? 🤔
3/7 – TARIFF TENSIONS
• 25% tariffs raise global trade war fears, boosting gold’s safe-haven appeal
• Markets worried about inflation, as import costs could climb
• Gold remains a hedge against economic uncertainty and currency devaluation 🌐⛔️
4/7 – MACROECONOMIC DRIVERS
• Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish comments on rate policy sent gold lower—higher rates often weigh on non-yielding assets
• U.S. inflation data (due soon) could shape the Fed’s next move—any upside surprise might strengthen the dollar, pressuring gold further
5/7 – INVESTOR SENTIMENT
• Profit-taking: After a massive run-up, traders might lock in gains
• Safe Haven: Still an underlying bullish sentiment if tariffs escalate
• The $2,900–$2,950 range is in focus—will gold consolidate or stage another breakout?
6/7 Where’s gold heading next?
1️⃣ Above $3,000—safe haven demand remains strong ✨
2️⃣ Sideways around $2,900—pausing for data 🏖️
3️⃣ Back under $2,850—hawkish Fed sinks gold ⬇️
Vote below! 🗳️👇
7/7 – STRATEGY WATCH
• Short-Term: Watch U.S. inflation data & dollar moves—gold typically moves opposite the greenback
• Long-Term: If tariffs stoke inflationary pressure, gold may shine even brighter. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments! 🌎
GOLD: Still in breakout, first down closing day!Hello everyone and welcome back to my channel, I don't share very often, also because I try to put many informations and details in what I describe.
First of all, as always, this is not a trade recommendation, neither a forecasting to know what the market is going to do or which direction is going to take.
My job, as a trader, is taking best trade setups, regardless the direction and what other people think. Guessing is 50/50, taking best trade setup is 90/10 😉
Gold.. is apparently in an interesting situation and today, is the only market I'm going to follow, and potentially be looking for a setup after major red news release at 10am NYT.
It can actually setup either for a short scenario, going to complete the 3 days pump and dump from Monday, or keep going higher considering the overall strong uptrend. But let's analyse both the scenarios, having a deeper look.
Little premise, January was a trending month, so I don't expect crazy shorts all in during a couple of days...
Previous week, beginning of the month, the market kept pushing higher, placing a little lower low on Thursday, stops eventually are placed below that level and in the future can be a level where the market can retest (stopping everybody still holding long positions).
Monday, the market broke through the weekly high, closing in breakout (This is what I consider a pump day)
Tuesday, Asian session pushed higher, placing the "all time high" and strongly reversing back inside the range of Monday, closing eventually as a first red day.
Today, Wednesday, the market is consolidating into the Tuesday's LOD, and as well the weekly breakout level, that's why this market can be pretty tricky and is important to identify the right setup.
SHORT SCENARIO
As I previously said, this can be a pump and dump in 3 days, and the first red day, up high into the "all time high", can be the beginning of a short move.
Obviously this market can blow off with news at 10am (look picture)
or it can start the retest of the current weekly high, consolidating up high for better filling and stronger market for a short move during the upcoming days ( we still have Thursday and Friday)
LONG SCENARIO
But very important, the market is still trending higher, Tuesday place a higher high and the consolidation down low, above the last weekly level, can be preparing for a bullish major move, today, and/or during the next days.
So.. how will I take advantage of it?
The days is keep going, news are on schedule, what I will do is:
1. Waiting for news to be released
2. After the news:
- Is the market setting up for a long trade? (buy low opportunity), then I will be targeting the current HOW
- Is the market setting up for a short trade? (sell high opportunity), then I will be targeting the current LOW and if the market keep blowing off, I would be willing to target as well the Thursday's low.
During the NY session I will be updating this post :)
Please, do not forget to follow me and support my work with a comment and like!
Thanks and have a good trading day!
Gianni
GBP/CAD Bullish Rebound Fibonacci Support Signals 1.8200 Target GBP/CAD is trading at approximately 1.7800. Our target price of 1.8200 suggests an anticipated upward movement of 400 pips. This projection aligns with a bullish outlook, particularly as the pair appears to be finding support between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels.
Technical analysis indicates that GBP/CAD is approaching a pullback support level near 1.7806, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. This area may serve as a foundation for a potential bullish bounce toward the first resistance level at 1.7968. The confluence of the Fibonacci retracement and support levels strengthens the case for a rebound.
Fundamentally, the British Pound has been influenced by the Bank of England's interest rate decisions, while the Canadian Dollar has faced pressure from declining oil prices. These factors contribute to the current bullish sentiment for GBP/CAD.
In summary, GBP/CAD is exhibiting bullish potential, supported by key technical levels and fundamental factors. Traders should monitor the 1.7806 support level and the 1.7968 resistance level, as well as broader economic indicators, to make informed trading decisions.
Gold Price Analysis: Is a Deeper Pullback Coming?Since the beginning of the week, I have been writing that although the overall trend remains bullish, Gold is due for a correction.
Indeed, after a blow-off top to a new all-time high of 2943, the price started to decline and reached the confluence support zone at 2885.
At the time of writing, the price has returned to this support level, and there is a high probability of a break below this level, leading to a continuation of the correction.
In such a scenario, traders could anticipate a test of the 2840 support zone.
My strategy is to look for selling opportunities on rallies above 2900.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
GOLD at a Turning Point: Potential Breakdown Ahead?OANDA:XAUUSD is currently testing the lower boundary of its ascending channel. A decisive break below this trendline could signal a shift in market sentiment, potentially weakening bullish momentum and increasing the likelihood of bearish pressure.
If price breaks below the current support and then retests the zone as resistance, sellers may take control and drive the price lower. A confirmed rejection at this level could lead to a bearish continuation toward the 2,829 support level, which represents a logical target within the current market structure.
Traders should monitor for bearish confirmation signals, such as bearish engulfing candles or strong rejection wicks, to validate potential short positions.
Gold📌 🔻 Sell Scenario (If Price Stabilizes Below 2900)
Entry: Below 2885
Stop Loss: Above 2905
Target 1: 2855
Target 2: 2830
Target 3: 2800
Success Probability: 75% (High probability due to overbought conditions and strong resistance)
Summary
✅ Key Resistance Zone: 2942.65 - 2952.88
✅ Key Support Zone: 2850 - 2825
✅ Primary Scenario: Price correction towards 2850 - 2825 before continuing the uptrend
✅ Alternative Scenario: If 2942 breaks, a rise towards 2975 - 3000 is likely.
POWELL SPEECH AND XAUUSDPowell’s Testimony Today: What It Means for Gold
Gold is trading at record highs, breaching $2,942/oz, as markets gear up for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress today. His remarks will likely set the tone for gold and broader market movements in the coming weeks.
What’s Driving Gold Right Now?
1️⃣ Safe-Haven Demand: Uncertainty around U.S. trade policies, including new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, has pushed investors toward gold as a hedge against economic turbulence.
2️⃣ Dollar Strength vs. Gold: A stronger dollar can weigh on gold prices, while dovish signals from the Fed typically weaken the dollar, supporting gold.
3️⃣ Inflation Risks: Rising inflation expectations due to tariff-driven cost pressures may also influence gold, which is traditionally seen as an inflation hedge.
What to Expect from Powell’s Testimony
Powell’s testimony is critical because it will give markets a clearer view of how the Fed plans to navigate the current economic challenges.
📊 Scenario 1 – Dovish Signal:
If Powell emphasizes patience in rate adjustments, focusing on the need for stability amidst trade policy uncertainties, gold could rally further. A dovish tone would likely weaken the dollar and increase demand for gold as a safe haven.
📊 Scenario 2 – Hawkish Signal:
If Powell shifts the narrative toward combating potential inflationary pressures, it could signal a more aggressive Fed stance. This might strengthen the dollar and lead to a pullback in gold prices.
Why This Matters for Traders
Gold is at a critical inflection point, and Powell’s tone could either reinforce the current uptrend or trigger a correction.
Watch how the market reacts to his comments on inflation, tariffs, and economic risks. His stance could influence gold’s direction not just today but for weeks ahead.
Key levels to watch: $2,950 (immediate resistance) and $2,900 (support). A breakout above resistance could open doors to new highs, while a break below support might signal short-term bearish momentum.
Stay tuned and be prepared for potential volatility. Powell’s testimony is one of those market-moving events that traders simply cannot ignore.
#gold #Fed #trading #Powell #forex #marketupdate
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Tariff policy can increase inflation in the USDespite turning down today, world gold prices still maintain an upward trend due to concerns about global trade conflicts provided by US President Donald Trump's new tax regimes.
Gold price on February 12: Suddenly plummeted, buying price of gold pieces decreased by 1.3 million VND/tael photo 2
World gold price chart on December 2. (Photo: kitco.com)
Currently, gold is still affected by tariffs and statements by US Federal Reserve Chairman (FED) Jerome Powell.
US President Donald Trump's announcement of 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, produced without exceptions or exemptions, has raised the stakes on conflicting trade stocks.
The FED Chairman said that the FED is in no hurry to cut interest rates when the economy is still strong and inflation is still above the target level of 2%.
🔥 GOLD SELL 2890 2892 🔥
✔️TP1: 2880
✔️TP2: 2870
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫 SL: 2901
Silver Steady Amid US Tariffs, China Retaliation, and EU Trade WSilver trades around $31.8 per ounce on Wednesday, steady as safe-haven demand rises after Trump’s 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, with more expected. China’s retaliatory tariffs take effect today, while Germany warns of an immediate EU response to US tariffs. Silver is also supported by strong industrial demand, particularly in renewables, and ongoing supply shortages.
Technically, the first resistance level will be 32.50 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 33.00 and 33.50. On the downside, 31.40 will be the first support level. 30.90 and 30.20 are the next levels to observe if the first support level is breached.
Gold Falls from $2,940 Peak Amid Fed’s Hawkish StanceGold fell below $2,900 per ounce on Wednesday, extending losses after hitting a record $2,940. The drop followed Fed signals that rate cuts aren’t imminent, shifting focus to US inflation data. While inflation hedging supports gold, the Fed’s stance limits its appeal. Safe-haven demand remains strong amid Trump’s tariffs, trade war fears, and geopolitical tensions, with Israel threatening to end the Gaza ceasefire. Dovish central banks and rising gold purchases also provide support, while India’s gold leasing rates hit record highs.
Technically, the first resistance level will be 2949 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 2975 and 3000. On the downside, 2885 will be the first support level. 2830 and 2760 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.
Gold📉Probability of a Drop from 2912:
🔹 In lower timeframes (15m to 1h): 70% probability of a downward correction at least to 2887.
🔹In higher timeframes (4H to Daily): 50% probability of a deeper decline towards 2860.
🔹 If 2912 is broken and price stabilizes above it:** The probability of an upward move to 2940 increases.
📌 Summary:
If the price breaks and stabilizes above 2912, the upward trend is likely to continue. However, if it gets rejected at this level, a downward correction towards 2887 and even 2860 may occur.
Sharing a strategyFor my scalping or Intraday trade, I created this pine script combining various indicator (namely the famous Alphatrend by @KivancOzbilgic, Previous Day Close and 52WeeksHigh/Low) into one indicator.
If price goes above the PDC and Alphatrend is a buy then I will make quick long trade. If price goes below the PDC and Alphatrend is a sell then I will make quick short trade. I added a percentage based on PDC to give me where I need to put my stoploss. Not really important as I always have proper risk reward ratio but it comes handy most of the time.
XAUUSD M30 I Bearish ContinuationBased on the M30 chart, price has broken below our sell entry level at 2,894.83, which aligns with a previous support turned resistance. confirming a potential bearish continuation.
A retest of this level may present further downside opportunities, with our take profit set at 2,882.29, near a key support zone.
The stop loss is placed at 2,909.01, above a recent swing high, ensuring the trade remains valid while allowing for market fluctuations.
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XAUUSD:11/2 Today's Market Analysis and Strategy30-minute resistance 2935, support 2915
1-hour resistance 2950, support 2900
Currently, the rising channel is complete, RSI is not overbought (about 65), and there is still room for upward movement.
Focus on the support strength of the 2910-2915 range. If it holds, it will remain bullish.
Note: If it breaks through 2950 during the day, it may accelerate towards 3000; if it pulls back to around 2900, it will attract long-term buying funds to enter the market.
Personal opinion: Gold is likely to continue to fluctuate upward, and the Asian and European sessions may test 2950-2960$, mainly buying on dips
Gold plunges, can it break the upward trend?Gold finally fell on the daily line. After setting a record high of 2942 yesterday, the RSI indicator showed an overbought price for the first time and returned to the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. The latest MA10/7-day moving average stopped at 2875/2853, and the daily line began to fall and adjust. The four-hour chart and the hourly chart moving average are glued together, the hourly chart Bollinger Band is flat, and the RSI indicator turns downward and is below the central axis. The trading is based on a wide range of fluctuations during the day.
If the US market meets the negative expectations of CPl data, the band decline is likely to be established, and you can continue to pay attention to the layout of the band short opportunity. If the data does not meet expectations and forms a significant positive, you need to pay attention to the second test of the previous high of the gold price. At present, the daily line has turned downward, and the main idea during the day is to sell at a high price and wait for adjustments.
Recently, due to the resurgence of the trade war, the market's risk aversion has pushed gold to continue to refresh historical highs. The technical side shows a long arrangement, and there is no historical reference pressure. Therefore, the trend judgment is more about paying attention to some real-time signals in the market in a timely manner. The short-term indicators are seriously overbought, and there is a need for adjustment. This decline is also beyond expectations! Therefore, the next operation idea is very clear. Relying on the daily defensive moving average to go long, and breaking the position to go short and bearish.
From a short-term perspective, gold has also entered the stage of adjustment, but the adjustment is also very beneficial to our later layout, because only adjustment can better buy! At present, the gold price has reached the support of the moving average, and the price is also staying near the 2881 line. The short-term adjustment obviously feels the support below. For this, the gold adjustment market will gradually come to an end, and the rising wave will follow!
Key points:
First support: 2882, second support: 2861, third support: 2844
First resistance: 2913, second resistance: 2926, third resistance: 2942
Operation ideas:
BUY: 2878-2881, SL: 2869, TP: 2900-2920;
SELL: 2918-2921, SL: 2929, TP: 2890-2880;
FED Chairman's testimony before CongressGold prices fell from historic levels as investors evaluated Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's congressional testimony and new trade policy statements from US President Donald Trump.
Market sentiment is mainly influenced by two important developments. First, President Donald Trump's announcement on Sunday of plans to impose 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, with no exceptions or exemptions, has raised concerns about potential trade conflicts.
Second, FED Chairman Jerome Powell's hearing also had a big impact on market developments. In his opening speech, Mr. Powell emphasized that the FED remains cautious in cutting interest rates, citing the solid economy and inflation continuously exceeding the FED's 2% target.
Investors are closely watching Mr. Powell's two-day testimony for clues about upcoming monetary policy, especially in the context of consumer price index (CPI) data about to be released. If inflation is higher than expected, market expectations of two interest rate cuts this year could be challenged.
The decline in gold prices from record highs also reflects profit-taking activities after a strong increase since mid-December, with an increase of about 370 USD, equivalent to 14.25%. This adjustment shows that investors are taking advantage of profit-taking opportunities, while reassessing the outlook for monetary policy and trade risks.
Bullish momemtum to extend?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 2,873.49
1st Support: 2,839.87
1st Resistance: 2,917.79
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Gold Sweeps before Major PlaysWait if you looking for the move! Cause price will give us some type of validation of what it wants to do. It can remain bullish and break through this area or it can pull back and grab some liquidity before continuing. We just have to wait for the killzones to show up a clearer read.
Gold Cup and Handle?Gold doesn't seem to move even with high Inflation data in the past months, possibly because the Crypto market is eating slowly it's market.
However it seems like there is potential Cup and Handle which might lead to Gold prices around 2500$ Ounce in the next few years.
A possible catalyst might be invasion of Ukraine, since Gold performs quite well during wars - however I truly Hope this never happens.
Just posting this here so I can keep track of it in the future, will update it if there is any news ahead.
XAU/USD Bullish Breakout – Gold Eyes $2,928 & Beyond!🔥 XAU/USD Analysis – February 4, 2025 🔥
📈 Current Price: $2,842.18 (+0.98%)
📊 Trend: Bullish momentum inside an ascending channel
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
🔵 Resistance: $2,928.75 – If this level breaks, expect further upside movement! 🚀
🔵 Support: $2,729.13 – Strong demand zone; watch for pullbacks.
🔴 EMA 200: $2,534.85 – Long-term bullish confirmation above this level! ✅
📉 Possible Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Case: Price continues the uptrend, targeting $2,928.75 next. If broken, gold could see $3,000+ soon! 🎯🔥
⚠️ Bearish Case: A rejection from resistance could lead to a pullback towards $2,800-$2,730.
💡 Final Thoughts:
The bullish momentum is still strong, and dips could be buying opportunities! 📊👑 Watch for price action near key levels.
📢 Gold bulls, are you ready for new highs? 🚀💰