PALLADIUM has started a massive 3-year rally. Don't miss it.We first published this Palladium (XPDUSD) chart exactly 4 months ago (August 06, see chart below) and it is the appropriate time to update it now:
As you can see, we gave the buy signal exactly on the market bottom which was in fact a Triple Bottom. The rebound broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), a Resistance that was unbroken since the week of October 10 2022, and technically confirmed the uptrend and the trend reversal from bearish to bullish. The pattern that is carrying this uptrend is a Channel Up and in November in fact, it respected both the Higher Highs and Higher Lows trend-lines.
As mentioned on that August analysis, Palladium formed the very same Channel Up after both previous major market bottoms (Bear Cycles) since the December 2008 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis. All Channel Up patterns (the current is the 3rd one), started after the 1W RSI formed Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows, which is a Bullish Divergence. They broke out once the 1W RSI made the first pull-back on the Arc shapes you see on the chart, indicating a normalization on the initial buying pressure at the bottom.
Obviously, this is a recurring technical cyclical pattern, formed on a 6-year Cycle. With the use of the Sine Waves we can accurately display the previous bottoms (January 11 2026 and December 01 2008) and to a fair extent the tops (we can argue that those are formed on the 3rd Lower High (red circles) on the 1W RSI Lower Highs trend-line).
Needless to say, we still expect Palladium to reach at least the 'Russia-Ukraine war peak' at 3450 by mid 2026 - mid 2027. If you want to go beyond that, technically, it can extend as high as $4780, which would represent a +451.52% rise from the recent 2024 bottom. The previous two Bull Cycles rose by +533.56% and 451.52% respectively, which also represents they high degree of symmetry within Cycles.
In any event, the current levels remain a unique buy opportunity on a 3 year horizon if you are a long-term investor.
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Metals
XAUUSD H1 Short From S/R TP BEARS 2565 USD🔸Hello traders, today let's review 1hour price chart for gold. Recently
price action compressed into rising wedge and then broke down
currently re-test of breakdown zone in progress.
🔸Strong resistances at 2655/2665 USD, shorting from resistance
is the recommended strategy right now, limited upside.
🔸Recommended strategy bears: short sell from overhead resistances near 2655/65 SL 2675 USD TP1 2600 TP2 2565 usd. usd fixed stop loss for this entry at 2675 usd, swing trade setup may take more time to hit target. good luck traders!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
GOLD dropped and recovered quickly, new news from Korea, NFPOn the Asian market on Friday (December 6), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold prices have increased sharply from an intraday low of nearly 2,613 USD/ounce and are currently trading around 2,643 USD/ounce, close to the technical level of 2,644 USD.
There was news that South Korea might impose martial law for a second time, which quickly increased market risk aversion and stimulated a sharp increase in gold prices.
According to the latest report from Yonhap News Agency on Friday, South Korea's opposition parties may seek to hold an impeachment vote on President Yun Xiyue at 5 p.m. local time on Saturday.
South Korean media JTBC reported on Friday that the Military Human Rights Center held an emergency press conference at its office in Mapo district, Seoul in the morning, following the instructions of superiors, commanders The squadron commander's superiors could convene an emergency press conference before the 8th.
The Military Human Rights Center emphasized that this was Yoon Seok-yue's Sign that martial law would be reintroduced.
South Korean President Yoon Seok-yue suddenly declared martial law on the evening of December 3, with the reason of eliminating pro-North Korean forces and protecting constitutional order. The South Korean National Assembly voted late at night to pass a resolution to "remove martial law", and Yoon Seok-yue finally announced that he would "remove martial law".
However, there are rumors that senior South Korean military officials have been asked to be on standby until December 8. This is something the market is eyeing as a sign that Yin Xiyue will declare martial law again.
In a headline on Friday, Yonhap news agency quoted the South Korean opposition party as saying lawmakers were on standby after receiving multiple reports of martial law being declared again.
Gold is considered a leading haven asset when the market receives risky impacts from geopolitical developments (especially in places closely related to the US).
On this trading day, investors will receive the release of the US non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to cause major fluctuations in the gold market.
US nonfarm payrolls jobs are expected to increase by 195,000 in November. Gold could rebound stronger on more disappointing jobs data, and come under some pressure ahead of the tabular data Non-farm wages are optimistic.
Today (Friday), the United States will release the November nonfarm payrolls report. Surveys expected 200,000 new jobs were added, but only 12,000 jobs were added in October, the lowest increase since December 2020.
The US unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly to 4.2% in November, from 4.1% in October. Additionally, average hourly wages in the US are expected to increase 0.3%. month-over-month in November. Annual wage growth will likely slow from 4% to 3.9%.
A report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that the number of job vacancies in the United States increased again in October and the number of layoffs decreased, indicating market demand for workers are stable.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after gold fell but fell short of its weekly target of $2,606 – $2,600 sent to readers in the weekly edition, it rose rapidly to retest the 2,644 technical level. USD.
Temporarily, gold's recovery does not give it enough conditions to increase in price as the Relative Strength Index is still operating below 50.
Along with that, the EMA21 is the closest resistance currently and as long as gold has not broken the price channel, it still has the main trend during this time which is down.
Once again gold falls below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level which will be the best condition to head towards the weekly target area at 2,606 – 2,600USD.
Meanwhile, expectations of a new bearish cycle will be opened once gold falls below the original price of 2,600 USD with the target then around 2,591 USD in the short term, more than 2,538 USD.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold remains bearish with notable points listed as follows.
Support: 2,634 – 2,606 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,644 – 2,657 – 2,663USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2690
→Take Profit 1 2679
↨
→Take Profit 2 2674
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2584 - 2586⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2580
→Take Profit 1 2591
↨
→Take Profit 2 2596
GOLD--> Consolidation. Which Direction Will Momentum Take?Hello dear friends, Ben here!
Gold prices continue to consolidate sideways within a familiar range as the market eagerly awaits a new catalyst to determine the next directional move. What lies ahead, and what scenarios could unfold?
Meanwhile, sellers are holding back as they await key developments, including comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, U.S. employment data, and the CPI report, to gain insights into the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently assign a 74% probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming policy meeting. However, theoretically, this remains uncertain, and the market may remain in consolidation until new information emerges.
On the technical side, gold may build bullish momentum to test critical resistance levels, which could potentially lead to a decline afterward. However, if the price breaks below the 2636 support level and consolidates beneath it, bearish pressure may emerge earlier than expected.
What are your thoughts? Share your insights, forecasts, and questions—let’s explore the ongoing dynamics of XAUUSD together!
Gold prices continue their downward trend, falling from $2,710.
Gold prices today continue their downward trend, trading around $2,642.
This decline comes as the market braces for the release of the highly anticipated U.S. labor report from the Department of Labor, scheduled for Friday. According to a Bloomberg survey, nonfarm payrolls for November are expected to show an increase of approximately 200,000 jobs.
However, remarks made by Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell on Wednesday in New York also had a significant impact. Powell emphasized that the U.S. economy is in "very good shape," with risks to the labor market diminishing. This has raised concerns among investors that the upcoming jobs report could outperform expectations, potentially weakening gold’s outlook further.
From a technical perspective, the focus is on the descending wedge channel. If sellers manage to defend the resistance levels within this channel, the downtrend may persist. The next projected targets for the sell-off are $2,605, $2,547, and $2,471, respectively.
Share your thoughts, opinions, and questions—let's discuss what’s unfolding in the market!
Breaking support and following the downtrendGold's 1-hour moving average continues to cross downward to form a dead cross, and continues to diverge downward, so the downside space of gold will be further opened, the gold oscillation range is broken, and a new low this week is created. Gold begins to weaken, so the rebound of gold is an opportunity to continue to be shorted. After gold rebounds to around 2634, it begins to fall directly under pressure. Then the Asian session gold rebounds around 2634 and continues to be shorted at highs
First support: 2613, second support: 2600, third support: 2588
First resistance: 2633, second resistance: 2642, third resistance: 2657
Trading strategy:
Sell high and buy low according to the resistance range.
THE END OF THE GOLDEN ROADGold had failed to break above 2700s resistance area and is showing bearish pressure making LHs and LLs. Currently it is a bit choppy but is overall still bearish and is failing to break above 2650s price area. Next target is 2500s price area for the continuation of current trend.
GOLD / Consolidating Between 2653 and 2637 !Gold Technical Analysis
The price is consolidating between 2637 and 2653, with stability above 2653 which is bullish toward 2661 and 2678,
Otherwise, as long as trades below 2653 will trade at the bearish area, closing 1h or 4h candle below 2637 will support bearish toward 2624
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 2653
Resistance Levels: 2661, 2678, 2706
Support Levels: 2637, 2625, 2612, 2585
Trend Outlook
Uptrend: Bullish momentum is expected if the price holds above 2653.
Bearish Momentum: Dominant as long as the price remains below 2649, especially below 2638.
GOLD--> The bears are gaining strength! Next target: 2605OANDA:XAUUSD is declining after a false breakout of the resistance range. The fundamental backdrop is mixed and still does not allow for a clear medium- and long-term strategy to be formed. But!...
Trump's tariff policy and rising geopolitical tensions are influencing metal prices. Against the backdrop of a strengthening dollar and expectations of a Fed rate cut, gold prices are declining and confirming the market's structure.
Looking ahead, all eyes will be on U.S. employment data as the country will release multiple job-related figures ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
From a technical standpoint, we have a trend to watch after leaving the rising channel support and the 2636 area, reflecting the prevailing bearish sentiment.
A breakout below 2636 could trigger aggressive selling against the backdrop of a newly strengthened dollar. However, the possibility of a retest of the area of interest before continuing the downward trend cannot be ruled out. Gold prices are expected to decline and reach levels of 2610 and 2596, respectively.
Long Gold AgainWe just bought gold near 2632, and then gold rebounded above 2643. I just closed our long position near 2642 and easily earned 100 pips.
At present, gold has fallen back to around 2626. Although we just missed the opportunity to short gold, when gold falls back, as long as gold does not fall below the 2625 line, I think the gold fall is still an opportunity to go long on gold, so I just went long on gold again near 2628. I think we should be able to make at least another 100 pips profit. Anyway, wish us good luck!
Bros, have you gone long on gold? If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
Silver's Next Big Move: A High-Probability Trade to $34.88!This trade is based on a clean 4-hour FVG (Fair Value Gap) setup. The FVG displaced above a short-term high, confirming a bullish structure shift, and subsequently retraced into a high-probability FVG. This type of retracement often offers strong entries with minimal risk while aligning with the higher timeframe directional bias.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: Within the retraced 4-hour FVG.
- Immediate Target: HTF (Higher Timeframe) buyside liquidity at 34.88981.
- Stop Loss: Positioned below the 4-hour FVG to protect against invalidation of the setup.
Conclusion: This setup leverages a textbook ICT concept, utilizing displacement and retracement into a high-probability zone. If the price continues respecting the FVG and bullish structure, the HTF buyside liquidity target at 34.88981 becomes highly achievable.
DYOR (Do Your Own Research)!
2024-12-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - Neutral. Death zone is 2644 - 2688. Until we break out of it, I will not touch it again. Unchanged. But the accuracy is pretty amazing so far. I am not touching this but longs are preferred below 2650 for trading back up to 2670+.
comment: Clear trading range so don’t over analyse it. 2644 has to hold for the bulls and bears need to stay below 2680 tomorrow. As long as these prices hold, you have to trade the range and mean reverse. Market is in total balance, so don’t try to guess where the next breakout will happen.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2644 - 2680
bull case: If bulls fail at 2644, 2630 comes next and then the big bull trend line around 2620ish. They desperately need a close above 2680 if they want a buy signal going into next week and even then the upside is probably limited to 2700 and the bear trend line.
Invalidation is below 2610ish.
bear case: Bears are preventing the market from closing above the daily ema but fail to make new lows below 2644. No side has an advantage and if you don’t like scalping, it’s best to wait for a clear new trend. If bulls were strong and wanted to close this year above 2800, we would probably have seen it by now.
Invalidation is above 2700.
short term: Neutral. Market is in balance around 2630.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: Likely to close 2024 above 2800 but I do think the recent selling was the first hint that we will transition into a trading range soon.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling above 2675 has been profitable since Monday.
XAUUSD (1h) buy signal inside a Rectangle.Gold is neutral on the (1h) timeframe, trading sideways inside a Rectangle (Resistance 1 and Support 1).
The price almost hit Support (1) for the 3rd time since Nov 26th and is a technical buy signal.
Each of those times it rose to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 2649 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) almost turned oversold (below 30.00). The previous two times that happened, it was a technical buy signal as well.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Notes:
Past trading plan:
GOLD (xauusd) → a short signalhello there!
as you can see gold broke the ascending channel once and it returned!
now in a short time frame, it is forming a Quasimodo pattern!
this pattern confirmed our short position suspect!
in a higher time frame, it formed an engulfed candle too!
the target of this position is the internal trendline!
let's see what will happen!
GOLD → Consolidation before a strong movement. But where to?FX:XAUUSD continues to consolidate and we have questionable preconditions that indicate both a possible fall (fundamental background) and growth (technical background).
Gold is holding back after Fed Chairman Powell's speech:
The US economy is in remarkably good shape.We are moving very quickly with rates.
"I am very pleased with where monetary policy is right now"
Unemployment is still very low and progress is being made in fighting inflation
The focus remains on the jobless claims data and NFP at this time
Technically, the focus is on consolidation in a locally rising channel format. A price exit from the channel in either direction may be accompanied by a strong impulse.
Resistance levels: 2655, 2660, 2688
Support levels: 2636, 2620, 2605
Two scenarios due to mixed and stalemate situation:
black: Powell commented on the situation as strong enough for the US market, accordingly, gold is forming a consolidation in a flag format, which is technically a pattern for a continuation of the fall.
blue: On D1 there are prerequisites for local growth. If the price breaks 2655, then 2660, the growth may continue to the zone of interest 2688.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD DAILY CHART UPDATEHey Everyone,
Another ranging day on the charts today, which works perfectly with our strategy and plans to buy dips, as we are able to continue to use the weighted level to take the bounces.
Please see the daily chart update, to give you all an overall view of the range. We are playing between two weighted levels 2629 and 2686. 2629 is still providing support with no ema5 lock below.
This is allowing us to use our smaller timeframe analysis on the 1H chart to buy dips from the weighted Goldturns for 30 to 40 pips clean. Ranging markets are perfectly suited for this type of trading, instead of trying to hold longer positions and getting chopped up in the swings up and down in the range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up using our smaller timeframe ideas.
Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we look forward to drops like this, which allows us to continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups.
Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
gold currently at 2646 and the 1-hour trend showing bearishWith gold currently at **2646** and the **1-hour trend showing bearish momentum**, this aligns well with your sell entry at **2647** targeting **2622**. Here's OANDA:XAUUSD how the setup looks:
Current Position Analysis:
*Price**: 2646
-Trend**: 1-hour timeframe bearish (indicates downward pressure).
Strategy Insights:
1. **Entry Timing**:
- Since the price is hovering around your intended entry (2647), you could open the position soon, provided the bearish trend is confirmed by indicators such as moving averages, RSI, or MACD.
2. **Target**:
- Aim for 2622, which is 24 points below the current price, offering a potential profit depending on your lot size.
3. **Risk Management**:
- Set a **stop-loss** to guard against reversal. A level around **2655-2660** could be reasonable, depending on volatility and resistance zones.
4. **Confirming the Bearish Trend**:
- Look for additional confirmation like:
- **Candlestick patterns**: E.g., a bearish engulfing pattern.
- **Volume**: Decreasing on pullbacks and increasing on sell-offs.
- **Support levels**: Ensure 2622 aligns with a key support zone.
Would you like help analyzing charts or identifying technical levels?
The Anomaly Price Event May Hit Before December 31Just before the US Presidential Elections, I published a detailed research report suggesting the markets may move into a low-liquidity event that could be very dangerous for traders.
My Adaptive Dynamic Learning (AI) predictive modeling system highlighted a range of price volatility just after the election showing a very real downward price event. If this event takes place, we may see the SPY/QQQ fall more than 5.5% while other sectors may fall more than 10.5%.
What is interesting is the post-election rally pushed some SPDR sectors above the upper ADL predicted price range. This means price is now very overbought in terms of expected levels.
Any reversion could prompt a very solid downward price move and catch many traders by surprise.
I'm watching my Crash Index and the XLF & XLRE sectors for any signs of a breakdown.
I suggest all of you move to protect capital as we move into the end of 2024 and prepare for what may become a very violent and volatile Anomaly Price Event.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
XAUUSD:5/12 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily resistance 2700, support below 2580
Four-hour resistance 2653, support below 2622
Gold operation suggestions:
The above pattern shows today's oscillation range pattern, and also estimates the rhythm of fluctuations. Today's short opportunities are 2657 and 2666. Only when 2666 is broken will the thinking be readjusted. 2632/33 is also very critical. Recently, it has stopped here for many times to rebound. It has been emphasized many times to arrange long orders near 2632. Today is the same. If there is a suitable low point below, continue to do more. The current idea is to short below 2657 and buy more above 2632!
Idea for Gold @2024/12/05FPMARKETS:XAUUSD
Key Observations:
Elliott Wave Count:
The chart is labeled with Elliott Wave counts, including primary (i, ii, iii, iv, v) and corrective waves (a, b, c).
It suggests that a five-wave impulse structure (upward trend) has been completed, followed by a corrective wave sequence (A-B-C).
Corrective Structure:
The ongoing correction seems to be forming a zigzag (A-B-C).
Wave (a) is downward, wave (b) retraces upwards, and wave (c) is expected to continue downward, possibly breaking support levels.
Channels:
The price action is within a parallel upward channel. This channel might represent the larger trend boundary, with corrective waves testing the lower channel boundary.
Moving Average:
A moving average (likely the 50-period) is plotted and appears to act as dynamic support/resistance. The price is currently below it, indicating bearish momentum.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Key support levels are marked at approximately $2,484, $2,363, and $2,320.
Resistance is visible at the wave (b) high near $2,680.
Projection:
The projection for wave (c) suggests a potential decline toward the lower boundary of the channel, aligning with the Fibonacci retracement levels or significant support zones.
Analysis:
Short-Term Bearish: The corrective wave (c) is likely to extend downward, aiming for support near $2,484–$2,363.
Mid-to-Long-Term Bullish: As this is a corrective phase within an upward trend, the longer-term perspective might favor resumption of the bullish trend after wave (c) completes.
Key Trading Considerations:
Watch for wave (c) completion near support levels for a potential reversal and long entry.
A break below the channel’s lower boundary could signal a deeper correction.
Monitor price action and volume near the 50-period moving average for shifts in momentum.