Skeptic | GOLD: Is the Uptrend Over… or Just Taking a Breather? Welcome back, guys! 👋 I'm Skeptic.
Today, we're diving deep into XAU/USD , breaking down the current structure and upcoming trade opportunities. 🔍
Recap & Current Structure:
As mentioned in our previous analysis , after the recent uptrend, we've entered a corrective phase. This correction coincides with rising economic tariffs from the U.S. and retaliatory tariffs from the EU and China—particularly targeting U.S. goods.
Interestingly, gold, which is typically considered a safe-haven asset, also experienced a decline. This raises a red flag: when even gold falls, it signals that markets are likely pricing in an economic slowdown . Everyone seems to be chasing liquidity.
The recession risk is very real, so trade cautiously until a clear trend emerges. Right now, the market is in a state of uncertainty. Given the sharp declines in stocks, gold, and silver, we could see range-bound movement or consolidation this week—and possibly into the next.
Despite this, the major daily trend for gold remains upward , although momentum has clearly weakened. If we see a lower high and a confirmed break below support at 2958.53 , that would significantly shift the outlook—potentially leading to a deeper correction or even a trend reversal, especially in case of broader economic recession signals.
Let’s zoom into the 1H timeframe for actionable trade setups:
📈 Bullish Scenario (Long Setup):
- Trigger : Break & close above 3039.58
- Confirmation : 7 SMA below the candle during breakout + RSI climbing above OB
- Invalidation : Rejection and close back below 2994.10
📉 Bearish Scenario (Short Setup):
- Trigger : Rejection at 3019.98 followed by a drop below 2958.51
- Confirmation : RSI entering oversold
⚠️ Key Notes:
- Risk Management: Avoid overleveraging. Wait for clear confirmations before entering any trade.
Stay sharp, stay Skeptical, and I’ll catch you in the next analysis!
