XAUMO Strategy – GOLD (XAU/USD) for Monday, Feb 12, 2025 Market Overview – The Smart Money Play
🔹 Gold (XAU/USD) trading around $2,860-$2,861 – Bulls still in control on higher timeframes but showing signs of exhaustion.
🔹
Liquidity traps above $2,875-$2,880 – Institutions baiting late buyers.
🔹
Volume decreasing at resistance – Smart money unloading positions.
Translation? Market prepping for a trap & reversal play before the next expansion.
📌 XAUMO SESSION BREAKDOWN & EXECUTION PLAN
🔴
1) Asia Session: Market Balance & Trap Setup
Price Action: Tight consolidation, low volatility, setting up liquidity grab.
Volume: Diminishing – classic pre-move buildup.
Liquidity Zones: Buyers trapped above $2,875-$2,880.
Key Levels:
Support: $2,850-$2,855
Resistance: $2,870-$2,875
🚨 Game Plan:
If price spikes into $2,875-$2,880, look for a reversal short.
If price drops to $2,855 and holds, expect a bounce.
✅ Trade Setup:
📉 Sell Limit: $2,875
🎯 Target: $2,855 > $2,845
❌ Stop Loss: $2,883
🟡
2)London Session: Expansion & Trend Confirmation
Price Action: Market picks a direction – we trade the retest.
Volume: If RVOL spikes, expect breakout move.
Liquidity Zones: Order blocks forming at $2,850-$2,855.
Key Levels:
Bullish if price holds $2,855, expect $2,880+.
Bearish if rejection at $2,875, expect $2,840-$2,830.
🚨 Game Plan:
Watch for fake breakouts at session highs/lows.
VWAP & POC confirm bias.
✅ Trade Setup:
📉 Sell if $2,872 rejects
🎯 Target: $2,850 > $2,835
❌ Stop Loss: $2,881
🟢
3) NY Session: Institutional Moves & Volume Surge
Price Action: The real move happens here – Smart Money decides direction.
Volume: If RVOL > 1.5, trend continuation is confirmed.
Liquidity Zones:
$2,875-$2,880 – Bull Trap Zone
$2,840-$2,830 – Sell-Side Liquidity
🚨 Game Plan:
If price fakes out above $2,875 & dumps, SELL HARD.
If NY session defends $2,855, BUY THE DIP.
✅ Trade Setup:
📉 Sell below $2,850
🎯 Target: $2,830 > $2,815
❌ Stop Loss: $2,860
📈 Buy if price reclaims $2,860 after fakeout.
🎯 Target: $2,880 > $2,885
❌ Stop Loss: $2,852
FINAL XAUMO EXECUTION STRATEGY
If price spikes to liquidity levels, fade the move.
🔸
If VWAP & Delta confirm direction, ride the trend.
🔸
Use session highs/lows as liquidity magnets.
🔸
If RVOL confirms strength, scale in aggressively.
Metals
Weekly Forex Forecast: GOLD & SILVER Are Bullish! BUY Them!This forecast is for the week of Feb 10-14th.
Gold and Silver are both bullish, with Gold being the stronger of the two. I am not interested in selling either until I see a bearish BOS, as the swing structure is bullish, and the trend is up. Wait until the fractal structure is aligned with the overall market structure, which would make for higher probability buys to follow the trend.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
BREIFING Week #6 : Volatility is LyingHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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Potential outside week and bullish potential for RMSEntry conditions:
(i) higher share price for ASX:RMS above the level of the potential outside week noted on 31st January (i.e.: above the level of $2.48).
Stop loss for the trade would be:
(i) below the low of the outside week on 28th January (i.e.: below $2.26), should the trade activate.
Gold ATH to $2,912?!We are currently seeing a re-distribution schematic play out on Gold ahead of its sell off. Re-distribution schematics normally take place in between Wave 3 high, Wave 4 low & Wave 5 high. This sell off schematic normally builds up within a 'Flat Correction' channel which traps in early sellers and lead buyers. This is why it is a hard pattern to recognise.
XAUUSD The bullish trend isn't over yet.Gold / XAUUSD is currently on the bullish wave of a long term Channel Up holding since October 6th 2023.
The overbought 1day RSI draws comparisons with September 26th 2024 and October 27th 2023, which made a short term pull back but continues the bullish wave to a new high nonetheless.
So far the 3 main bullish waves were +18.68%, 22.50% and 22.00%.
Based on that, the bad case scenario for the next High is 3000.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
XAUUSD WEEKLY WRAP UP
This week, Gold (XAU/USD) continued its upward trajectory, achieving a sixth consecutive weekly gain. The metal reached a new record high above $2,880, reflecting sustained bullish momentum.
Key Influencing Factors:
Federal Reserve Commentary: Remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell contributed to market optimism, supporting the rally in gold prices.
Technical Levels: Gold approached the significant psychological level of $3,000 per ounce, with analysts suggesting that surpassing this threshold could be a potential game-changer for the metal.
Outlook:
The market's focus is now on upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which could serve as a catalyst for further price movements. A higher-than-expected CPI reading may bolster expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, potentially exerting downward pressure on gold. Conversely, a softer CPI could support continued gains in gold prices.
Traders are advised to monitor these developments closely, as they will play a crucial role in shaping gold's trajectory in the near term.
FOLLOW US BOOST US FOR MORE MARKET RELATED NEWS ANALYSIS AND UPDATES
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-7-25: Where's The Deep-VShortly after I created the morning video, the markets opened with a BANG.
First rallying, then rolling over - just as I predicted.
Granted, I never expected the markets to rally above 606 before rolling downward, but the breakdown move into a potential Deep-V looks to be playing out very nicely right now.
Come Monday (2-10), and possibly carrying into the 13th, we could see a very sharp deep-V type price move that pushes the SPY below 580 for a period of time.
That could be a very big move from the 606+ levels we saw this morning.
And you know I'll be saying, "Just as I predicted," for at least 3 to 5 days starting early next week if that happens.
Again, I put my research out to the public like this to either live or die by my work. Very few people are able to do this - or they flip/flop all the time (every 2-3 hours).
My research is different. I'm really trying to make a difference by telling traders what to expect now and in the future.
I know I'm starting to make a difference for many people because I'm getting emails and messages from individuals who use my research to identify great trade opportunities.
Are you going to be the next person to share your success story with me?
Remember, have a safe weekend and GET SOME come Monday morning.
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Gold Pauses Rally as Dollar and Yields Strengthen
Gold pulled back from recent highs as the US dollar and bond yields rebounded on renewed inflation concerns. The University of Michigan’s Inflation Expectations survey surged to 4.3% from 3.3%, raising fears of persistent price pressures. Strong wage growth in January (0.5% month-over-month) further fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its higher-for-longer stance on interest rates. Speculation about inflationary policies under a potential Trump administration has also added to the hawkish outlook. As a result, markets have repriced rate-cut expectations, lifting the dollar and weighing on gold. Key upcoming events in the week ahead include US CPI data, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, and corporate earnings, all of which could drive volatility.
Technically, gold remains in a strong uptrend, repeatedly hitting all-time highs. However, signs of exhaustion are emerging. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is overbought on multiple timeframes: the daily RSI hovers around 75, the weekly RSI is above 70 with negative divergence, and the monthly RSI has surpassed 78. Such levels suggest a pullback or consolidation is likely, though not guaranteed.
Gold has reached the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of its October-November correction at $2859. If prices extend higher, the next target is the 161.8% extension at $2946. On the downside, initial support lies at $2845, followed by $2790 (October high) and the $2710-$2725 zone.
Overall, gold’s bullish momentum remains intact, but traders should be cautious of near-term corrections, especially given extreme RSI readings and shifting macroeconomic factors.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
The 3rd Major Pivot in Gold’s Uptrend - Since Trade War in 2018We just witnessed the start of another pivot in gold when Trump won the U.S. presidential election in November 2024. My gold trading strategy has always focused on buying dips while keeping any short-selling opportunities short-term.
The chart above clearly illustrates three major V-shaped formations in gold. After each tariff or trade war, a V-shaped pattern formed in the same month the policy was initiated, followed by a subsequent uptrend.
Recently, I published a video analyzing other significant tariffs since the U.S.-China trade war began in 2018. We observed a consistent pattern: after each tariff or trade war, the same month of policy initiation saw the formation of a V-shaped trough, followed by an uptrend.
This time, the V-shaped trough occurred during the U.S. presidential election month. The right side of this V-shape was completed with the announcement of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, signaling the expansion of the trade war beyond China.
The consequence of trade wars is inflation, and gold has historically served as a leading indicator of this trend.
If the trade war persists and intensifies, a continued uptrend in gold seems inevitable. Analyzing the long-term monthly chart using my parallel channel approach, we observed gold prices encountering resistance around $2,600 in September 2024 and beyond. However, by the close of January, the price action provided a clear confirmation of the ongoing gold uptrend. Gold firmly closed above $2,600, reaching $2,835 for COMEX Micro Gold Futures.
On the 3-hour chart, I have provided another set of parallel channels as a guide to track support and resistance levels as gold trends further.
As gold prices continue to climb, their notional value can become quite large for retail traders. COMEX Micro Gold Futures, being 1/10th the size of the regular gold contract, is a better option for me when the next buying opportunity arises. Recently, CME launched a new contract—a pocket-sized one-ounce gold contract. One key to successful trading is selecting the right contract size for oneself, which is crucial for effective risk management.
Once again, my strategy for gold remains the same: focus on buying dips while keeping any short-selling opportunities short-term.
Please see the following disclaimer and information that you may find useful:
Gold Contracts:
Gold Futures & Options
Ticker: GC
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00
Micro Gold Futures & Options
Ticker: MGC
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 er troy ounce = $1.00
1Ounce Gold Futures
Ticker: 1OZ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 per troy ounce = $0.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• My mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
GOLD DAILY CHART MID/LONG TERM UPDATEHey Everyone,
A PIPTATSIC finish to the week completing and smashing all our chart ideas across our multi time-frame analysis.
We finish off today with an update on our daily chart idea that we have been tracking for a while now, level to level, to the finishing line today!!
After completing all our targets with candle body close and/or ema5 lock confirmation, we were looking for a body close above 2797 to confirm a continuation into 2840.
- This was hit completing this chart idea for the perfect finish.
We will now come back Sunday with our updated Multi time-frame analysis, Gold route map and trading plans for the week ahead and also a new Daily chart long term chart idea, now that this one is complete.
Have a smashing weekend!! And once again, thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Safe-Haven Demand Surges Amid Trade Tensions (Retest or Cont.)Gold Futures Fall but Hold Near Record High on Safe-Haven Demand
The U.S. dollar gave up earlier gains after the Trump administration delayed higher tariffs on Canada and Mexico for one month. However, Washington remains firm on tariffs for Chinese imports.
With Beijing retaliating, the risk of an escalating trade war increases, casting uncertainty over global economic growth. This scenario is driving strong safe-haven demand, supporting further gains in gold prices.
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold recently recorded a new all-time high and is still pushing toward 2,856, fueled by ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
However, today the price is attempting a correction toward 2,823 before resuming its upward momentum toward 2,845 and 2,856.
The breakout level is 2,809—as long as the price remains above this level, the market remains bullish. A break below 2,809 would shift the trend bearish.
Key Levels
Pivot Point: 2834
Resistance Levels: 2845, 2856, 2865
Support Levels: 2823, 2809, 2797
Trend Outlook
Bullish while above 2823
Movement Range: 2823 – 2845
Bearish if the price breaks below 2809
COPPER at Key Resistance: Reversal Toward 4.4380?PEPPERSTONE:COPPER has reached a key resistance level, marked by previous price rejections and significant selling pressure. This area has historically acted as a strong supply area, suggesting the potential for a bearish reversal if sellers regain control.
The current market structure indicates that if the price confirms rejection within this supply zone, we could see a move downward toward the 4.4380 level, which represents a logical target within the current market structure
Traders should watch for bearish confirmation signals, such as bearish engulfing candles or rejection wicks, before entering short positions.
Gold Market Update: Bullish Momentum ResumesYesterday, gold experienced a pullback, dropping to an intraday low of around 2835.
However, the price quickly rebounded, and overnight, bulls regained control, pushing it back above 2860—a key confluence resistance level.
This move suggests that the correction may be over.
Looking ahead, the upcoming NFP data could drive further momentum, potentially leading to a new all-time high by the end of the week.
From a broader perspective, the bullish outlook remains intact as long as yesterday’s low holds. A more significant correction would only come into play if we see a weekly close below this level.
NFP LESS THAN EXPECTED. KEY LEVELS TO WATCHThe U.S. Non-farm Payrolls Changed By 143,000 In January, Compared With Expectations Of 175,000 And A Previous Value Of 256,000
KEY LEVELS.
We expect a rise in xauusd value to 2894 .
2869
2874
2883
2889
2894
2910
Alternative scenario
if 2860 is broken it may fall to 2855 and 2840 can act as a strong support.
the ultimate support for current scenario is 2833.
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SILVER at Key Resistance Zone - Sellers Ready to Step In?OANDA:XAGUSD is testing a key resistance zone, an area that has previously triggered strong selling pressure, making it a key level to watch.
If rejection occurs at this zone, such as through wicks, bearish engulfing patterns, or an increase in selling volume, sellers could regain control and drive the price lower toward the 31.650 target. This aligns with a short-term pullback scenario within the broader market structure.
However, a sustained breakout above this resistance would invalidate the bearish outlook, potentially opening the door for further upside.
This is not financial advice but rather how I approach support/resistance zones. Remember, always wait for confirmation, like a rejection candle or volume spike before jumping in.
Please boost this post, every like and comment drives me to bring you more ideas! I’d love to hear your perspective in the comments.
Best of luck , TrendDiva
Gold Buy (194pips)Dollar Index is losing value and institutions are increasing their longs. We could soon touch $3000, pay close attention to market structures for proper buy positions. This a only a trade idea, use demo account to place trades. Happy trading OANDA:XAUUSD CAPITALCOM:DXY ECONOMICS:USINTR
"Gold (XAUUSD) Bullish Breakout Setup with 2,888–2,900 Target"This chart shows a bullish structure in gold (XAUUSD) on the 1-hour timeframe, with a rounding bottom pattern forming. Multiple break-of-structure (BOS) and change-of-character (ChoCH) points indicate a continuation of the uptrend. The price is currently consolidating near resistance, with a potential breakout targeting the 2,888–2,900 zone. If the weak high is broken, momentum could push higher. Support zones are visible around 2,840 and lower in case of a pullback. OANDA:XAUUSD
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-7-25: Carryover PatternAs many of you know, I'm still expecting a breakdown in the markets leading to my Deep-V pattern on the 9th and the secondary Major Bottom on the 10th.
Why haven't we started to move downward yet? I really don't know. I suspect the markets are being pushed higher by Market Makers trying to crush the shorts (premium).
Either way, we'll know how this is going to play out over the next 5+ days.
If I'm right, we'll see the SPY break downward towards 580-590 over the next 5+ days.
The QQQ should move down 510-515 throughout that same breakdown (possibly a bit lower).
I expect Gold and Silver to also move downward if this breakdown in the SPY/QQQ happens as I expect. Metals tend to move downward when the SPY/QQQ makes a sudden impulsive breakdown move.
Bitcoin also appears to be poised for a breakdown event.
It seems that all the indexes and symbols I follow in the morning video are already standing near the edge of a cliff, just waiting to jump off.
I urge traders to move into a protective mode (protecting open longs and hedging against any breakdown event) over the next 5-10+ days.
We'll eventually see another bounce/rally off some lows, but right now, everything looks ready to JUMP (off the cliff).
Get Some.
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SILVER: Short Signal with Entry/SL/TP
SILVER
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short SILVER
Entry Point - 32.196
Stop Loss - 32.628
Take Profit - 31.428
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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