Hellena | GOLD (4H): SHORT to 38.2% Fibo lvl 3050.Dear colleagues, the price has been in an upward movement for quite a long time and I believe .that it is time for a correction in the “2” wave.
I think it is possible that there may be a small update of the maximum of the top of wave “1” to 3176.771, then I expect a correction to the area of 38.2% Fibonacci level 3050.
As usual there are 2 possible entry options:
1) Market entry
2) Entry by pending limit orders, if the price updates the maximum.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Metals
GOLD BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,101.76
Target Level: 2,970.42
Stop Loss: 3,188.94
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 12h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Not Even Gold Escaped the Volatility of Liberation DayWe finally saw the shakeout on gold I was expecting around $3000. This clearly changes things for gold traders over the near-term, even though the fundamentals remain in place for bulls. I highlight key levels for gold and take a look at the devastation left across key assets on Thursday.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Market Update (No Buy/Sell Bias)🧠 Structural Recap: Why Gold Did What It Did
🔄 Mitigation & Reaction Zones Review
✅ Premium Supply Zone @ 3144–3160 (H1-H4)
— Price tapped into this key premium area and sharply rejected it. This indicates a successful mitigation of that supply zone.
— This zone previously aligned with the weak high and premium structure, adding to its weight.
🟦 Mid-Range FVGs @ 3120–3130 (H1)
— This area acted as the bounce point today after price wicked down aggressively.
— The strong wick from 3086–3144 confirms buyer interest post-news, filling imbalance and mitigating prior demand (on H1).
🟫 Mitigated Demand Zone @ 3086–3096 (H1-H4)
— This demand zone was pierced and fully tapped. We saw a textbook bounce with strong reaction, suggesting the zone is now mitigated.
— A notable EQ + strong candle from this zone created bullish displacement.
🔵 Unmitigated Discount Demand @ 3054–3080 (H4)
— This remains a key untouched demand. Price wicked close to it but didn’t tap.
— If we get another push down, this is still valid and unmitigated.
🧱 Below 3050: Unmitigated Macro Zone (D1)
— The large OB/FVG combo around 2970–3030 still hasn’t been mitigated. This remains untouched liquidity in a deeper pullback.
📰 News Review — April 3, 2025
Trump’s Conference Commentary
— Hawkish rhetoric around economic strategy but no clear monetary focus.
— Mixed signals caused initial DXY strength, but later market corrected.
US Jobless Claims & ISM Services PMI
— Slightly worse-than-expected numbers, showing cooling economy signs.
— This supported XAU recovery post-drop as rate hike sentiment weakened.
Geopolitical Noise (Middle East)
— Continued tensions are keeping safe-haven demand intact, especially below 3100.
🧠 TL;DR
Zones like 3144–3160 and 3086–3096 are now mitigated.
3054–3080 and 2970–3030 remain unmitigated, future bounce areas.
Today’s volatility was news-driven, but liquidity still sits lower.
We’re currently in mid-mitigation flow, with the market respecting PA zones well.
Non-Farm Payrolls – April 4: The key market driver!On Friday, April 4, 2025 at 3:30 PM EET, the U.S. Department of Labor will release one of the most anticipated macroeconomic reports — the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This figure reflects the change in the number of jobs in the non-farm sector and is a crucial indicator of economic health. Strong numbers suggest economic expansion and may prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy, while weak data could strengthen expectations of rate cuts — impacting stocks, the U.S. dollar, bonds, and commodities.
Historically, NFP reports have triggered significant market reactions, with sharp movements depending on the actual data versus expectations. Analysts forecast a moderate job gain, indicating a slowdown compared to recent months. The release comes amid uncertainty linked to new tariffs introduced by President Trump, which may affect business confidence and consumer spending. Investors are closely watching for signals on the economy’s direction and potential Federal Reserve actions.
How could NFP impact the markets?
• Stock market: Weak data could stoke recession fears, pressuring equities, especially in cyclical sectors. However, if seen as a reason for Fed easing, markets may rebound.
• U.S. Dollar: A disappointing report might weigh on the dollar as investors adjust their rate expectations. Strong figures, on the other hand, would support USD.
• Bonds: Slower job growth could drive demand for U.S. Treasuries, pushing yields lower.
• Gold: In case of weak data, gold may rally as a safe haven amid rising expectations of looser monetary policy.
Economists expect a job gain of around 140,000, lower than previous figures — a scenario that could increase market volatility. Get ready for big moves!
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis: SMC Trading point update
This chart is a technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) on a 4-hour timeframe. Here’s a breakdown
1. Ascending Channel:
The price is moving within an upward channel, showing a bullish trend.
Higher highs and higher lows confirm the uptrend.
2. Support and Resistance Zones:
Yellow Boxes: Key support zones where price previously consolidated before moving higher.
Red Arrows: Marking resistance zones where the price faced rejection.
Green Arrows: Indicating support levels where the price bounced.
3. Current Price Action:
Price recently dropped to a key support zone (around $3,050).
A bullish reaction is expected from this level.
If support holds, the price may continue the uptrend toward the target of $3,186.
4. Projected Move:
The black zigzag line suggests a potential bounce from support.
If the support level holds, price could move back up within the channel.
Mr SMC Trading point
Conclusion:
If price respects the support zone, there could be a good buying opportunity.
A break below the support zone would signal potential bearish movement.
Monitoring price action around the yellow zone is crucial for confirming direction.
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow )
GOLD - 1H UPDATE
Gold dropped nicely today, in a strong impulsive move which normally indicates a reversal. We also saw price touch $3,057, but we did say price also needs to close below that level which it never done. There's 2 possible plays on its next move;
1. Price just carries on dropping lower in the next week as expected.
2. Gold starts to consolidate, creating a 'redistribution schematic' for a bigger sell off. But this could also mean Gold creating 1 more new ATH.
GOLD WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
After completing our 1H, 4H and daily chart idea, we now only have our long term weekly chart idea remaining . We will update new Multi timeframe route maps in preparation for next week on Sunday
Last week we stated that we still had the gap left open at 3094, after candle break above the channel half-line and ema5 lock.
-This gap is now complete!
We will now need this weeks candle to finish and close and/or ema5 lock above 3094 to open the gap above.
We also still have a detachment to ema5 lagging potentially due for further correction. We will look for ema5 lock or body close above or below the levels to confirm the next mid to long term range.
This is the beauty of our channels, which we draw in our unique way, using averages rather than price. This enables us to identify fake-outs and breakouts clearly, as minimal noise in the way our channels are drawn.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gbpcad SellPrice has been making LL pointing to strength in downtrend and now price closed below the oh so very important 1.85172. the stop i wouldve like to put it above the last high but its ok im still is comfortable with it due to the volume nice scalp based on how fast the trade should hit tp or sl.
XAU/USD Trendline Breakout (02.04.2025)The XAU/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 3077
2nd Support – 3048
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GOLD: Short Signal with Entry/SL/TP
GOLD
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short GOLD
Entry - 3130.2
Sl - 3142.3
Tp - 3109.6
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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"Goooo...!!! Get to the safe-haven choppa!"And there we go... Market participants are in panic mode as tariff show kicks off. Everyone is trying to find a safe-haven like CHF and JPY. However, gold and silver are not the ones, where you need to be now.
Let's dig in!
TVC:GOLD
MARKETSCOM:USDCHF
MARKETSCOM:USDJPY
MARKETSCOM:JAPAN225
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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Trump's Tariff Wars : What To Expect And How To Trade Them.I promised all of you I would create a Trump's Tariff Wars video and try to relate that is happening through the global economy into a rational explanation of HOW and WHY you need to be keenly away of the opportunities presented by the new Trump administration.
Like Trump or not. I don't care.
He is going to try to enact policies and efforts to move in a direction to support the US consumer, worker, business, and economy.
He made that very clear while campaigning and while running for office (again).
This video looks at the "free and fair" global tariffs imposed on US manufacturers and exports by global nations over the past 3+ decades.
For more than 30+ years, global nations have imposed extreme tariffs on US goods/exports in order to try to protect and grow their economies. The purpose of these tariffs on US good was to protect THEIR workers/population, to protect THEIR business/economy, to protect THEIR manufacturing/products.
Yes, the tariffs they imposed on US goods was directly responsible for THEIR economic growth over the past 30-50+ years and helped them build new manufacturing, distribution, consumer engagement, banking, wealth, and more.
The entire purpose of their tariffs on US goods was to create an unfair advantage for their population to BUILD, MANUFACTURE, and BUY locally made products - avoiding US products as much as possible.
As I suggested, that is why Apple, and many other US manufacturers moved to Asia and overseas. They could not compete in the US with China charging 67% tariffs on US goods. So they had to move to China to manufacture products because importing Chinese-made products into the US was cheaper than importing US-made products into China.
Get it?
The current foreign Tariffs create an incredibly unfair global marketplace/economy - and that has to STOP (or at least be re-negotiated so it is more fair for everyone).
And I believe THAT is why Trump is raising tariffs on foreign nations.
Ultimately, this will likely be resolved as I suggest in this video (unless many foreign nations continue to raise tariff levels trying to combat US tariffs).
If other foreign nation simply say, "I won't stand for this, I'm raising my tariff levels to combat the new US tariffs", then we end up where we started - a grossly unfair global marketplace.
This is the 21st century, not the 18th century.
Step up to the table and realize we are not in the 1850s or 1950s any longer.
We are in 2025. Many global economies are competing at levels nearly equal to the US economy in terms of population, GDP, manufacturing, and more.
It's time to create a FREE and FAIR global economy, not some tariff-driven false economy on the backs of the US consumers. That has to end.
Get some.
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GOLD - Price can decline to support area and then start to growHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago price traded inside a flat pattern, where it moved between support and resistance levels.
Then gold made fake breakout to the downside, but soon returned back and started to grow strongly.
It broke the upper line of the flat and entered a rising channel, forming a steady bullish movement.
Later price touched $3160 resistance and bounced down, making correction to $3070 support area.
Now gold trades inside rising channel and near $3070 level, showing signs of slowing the decline.
In my opinion, gold can bounce from support and reach $3160 resistance as the next upward target.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-3 : GAP Breakaway PatternFirst off, thank you for all the great comments and accolades related to my calling this breakdown (nearly 60+ days ago).
Did I get lucky having these new tariffs announced, causing the markets to break downward? Probably.
Did my research suggest the markets were going to break downward anyway? YES.
Did my research predict these tariffs? NO.
My research is specifically price-based. You'll notice I don't use many indicators, other than my proprietary price pressure and momentum indicators.
The purpose of what I'm trying to teach all of you is that price is the ultimate indicator. You can use other indicators if you find them helpful. But, you should focus on the price chart and try to learn as much as you can from the price chart (without any indicators).
Why, because I believe price tells us everything we need to know and we can react to price more efficiently than getting confused by various technical indicators.
At least, that is what I've found to be true.
Today's pattern suggests more selling is likely. After the markets open, I suggest there will be a bunch of longs that will quickly be exited and shorts that will be exited (pulling profits). Thus, I believe the first 30-60 minutes of trading could be extremely volatile.
My extended research suggests the markets will continue to try to move downward (over the next 60+ days) attempting to find the Ultimate Low. But, at this point, profits are profits and we all need to BOOK THEM if we have them.
We can always reposition for the next breakdown trade when the timing is right.
Gold and Silver are moving into a PANIC selling phase. This should be expected after the big tariff news. Metals will recover over the next 3-5+ days. Get ready.
BTCUSD is really not moving on this news. Kinda odd. Where is BTCUSD as a hedge or alternate store of value? I don't see it happening in price.
What I do see is that BTCUSD is somewhat isolated from this tariff news and somewhat isolated from the global economy. It's almost as if BTCUSD exists on another planet - away from global economic factors.
Still, I believe BTCUSD will continue to consolidate, attempting to break downward over the next 30+ days.
Remember, trading is about BOOKING PROFITS and moving onto the next trade. That is what we all need to focus on today.
Get Some.
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HelenP. I Gold will correct to trend line and continue to riseHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. Earlier, the price was moving inside a consolidation range between 2955 and 2880 points. It tested the support zone multiple times, specifically the area between 2865 and 2880, before making a strong bullish reversal. After bouncing from Support 2 at the 2880 level, Gold began a confident upward movement. It broke through the resistance zone and exited the consolidation pattern, forming a clear uptrend and respecting the trend line throughout the rise. As the price climbed, it reached Support 1 at the 3055 level and paused briefly, consolidating near the support zone between 3055 and 3070. This zone held well, acting as a base for further growth. From there, the price made another upward impulse, reaching the 3125 area before pulling back slightly for a local correction. Currently, Gold is trading above the trend line and remains within a bullish structure. The recent reaction from the support zone confirms buyer strength and interest in higher levels. Given the previous impulse, the trend line support, and price action above key zones, I expect XAUUSD to continue rising toward the 3180 points, my current goal. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
COPPER The 1D MA50 is the key.Last time we looked at Copper (HG1!) was on January 24 (see chart below) giving a buy signal that easily hit our 4.6550 Target:
This time the market is in front of a critical moment. The 2025 pattern has been a Channel Up, which last Wednesday reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Up. As long as the 2025 pattern holds, the recent pull-back is a buy opportunity targeting 5.3745.
If the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks however, we expect a quick dive, rebound re-test and rejection, similar to July 05 2024. In that case, we will target the bottom of the 1-year Channel Up at 4.150.
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