Understanding XAU/USD TradingXAU/USD represents the value of one troy ounce of gold in US dollars and is one of the most actively traded assets in the financial markets. It is often used as a hedge against inflation, currency devaluation, and economic uncertainty. Traders and investors closely monitor XAU/USD due to its strong correlation with macroeconomic factors, such as central bank policies, geopolitical risks, and market sentiment.
Key Factors Affecting XAU/USD
1. US Dollar Strength – Since gold is priced in USD, a stronger dollar typically weakens gold prices, while a weaker dollar supports them.
2. Interest Rates & Fed Policy – Lower interest rates make gold more attractive, as it doesn’t yield interest, whereas higher rates make other assets like bonds more appealing.
3. Inflation & Economic Uncertainty – Gold is considered a safe-haven asset, meaning its demand rises during periods of economic instability or high inflation.
4. Central Bank Reserves – Central banks globally hold gold as a reserve asset, and their buying or selling activities influence prices.
XAU/USD Trading Strategies
• Trend Following: Traders use moving averages and technical indicators like MACD and RSI to capitalize on gold’s long-term trends.
• Breakout Trading: Monitoring key resistance and support levels to enter trades when price breaks above or below significant levels.
• News-Based Trading: Economic reports such as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), CPI, and Federal Reserve announcements can cause high volatility in gold prices.
Why Trade XAU/USD?
Gold is a 24-hour market, highly liquid, and offers significant opportunities for both short-term traders and long-term investors. It is influenced by global economic events, making it an exciting instrument for traders looking to hedge risks or profit from price movements.
Metals
Gold’s Gleam: Navigating the Bullish Terrain Amid Global UncertaAs of February 1, 2025, gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $2,733 per ounce, reflecting a robust uptrend. Technical indicators, such as the price holding above key moving averages and a bullish MACD crossover, suggest continued upward momentum. Fundamentally, gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset is bolstered by ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of stable or lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Looking ahead, if gold maintains support above $2,710, it could target resistance levels near $2,765 and $2,790. However, stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data or hawkish Fed policies could pose downside risks.
Weekly Market Forecast Feb 2-7thThis is an outlook for the week of Feb 2-7th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
ES \ S&P 500
NQ | NASDAQ 100
YM | Dow Jones 30
GC |Gold
SiI | Silver
PL | Platinum
HG | Copper
The indices were not easy to trade last week, as there were plenty of fundamentals at play. However, they are relatively still strong, and I am looking for further gains next week.
NFP week, imo, is best traded Mon-Wed. Thurs will likely see consolidation until the NFP news announcement Friday morning. I will look to fade the news release on Friday for NY Session.
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The Market Matrix - Gold, Crude, DXY & Nasdaq for Feb 1 2025This weeks edition of The Market Matrix.
Disclaimer
The information provided in this content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments.
Trading financial markets involves significant risk, including the potential loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions and should conduct your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions.
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Dollar - Gold Market CorrelationThe Dollar (DXY) has closed extremely bullish this week. This is another confluence that we can see Gold (XAUUSD) start moving down soon or later.
As you all know the DXY & XAUUSD have negative market correlations, so when one moves up the other move down. The Dollar has been correcting down recently, which has led to Gold pushing up & creating new ATH’s. However, I now expect Dollar bulls to resume, which means we can see Gold get ready for a bear market in the mid term.
SILVER: Short Trading Opportunity
SILVER
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short SILVER
Entry Point - 31.324
Stop Loss - 31.671
Take Profit - 30.750
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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SILVER // bull trend in sync across major timeframesThe trend has just become bullish across the monthly, weekly, and daily timeframes, however, the market is still in an accumulation phase.
Each dashed level represents an untested breakdown that requires attention from the buyers.
If the market transitions into the expansion phase, the Fibonacci target levels on the weekly and daily timeframes become valid targets.
Key Fundamentals
Silver has experienced significant price movements, driven by industrial demand, supply constraints, and macroeconomic factors. As of late January 2025, silver is trading at $33.88 per ounce, reflecting a 3% decline after a two-week rally that pushed it to nearly 13-year highs. Despite the recent pullback, silver has surged 40% over the past year.
Key Factors
Industrial Demand:
Silver is widely used in solar panel manufacturing and electronics, with industrial demand reaching a record 654.4 million ounces in 2023, marking the third consecutive year where demand outpaced supply (Investopedia).
Supply Constraints:
Global silver supply has struggled due to weaker mine production and labor strikes in major producing countries like Mexico. These disruptions have contributed to a supply deficit, further supporting higher prices (Wall Street Journal).
Investment Demand:
Economic uncertainties and lower interest rates have driven investors toward precious metals as safe-haven assets. The iShares Silver Trust alone saw $856 million in inflows, reflecting rising investor interest (Wall Street Journal).
Macroeconomic Factors:
The Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cuts have increased the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver. Meanwhile, China’s increased investment in silver, partly due to gold import restrictions, has further bolstered demand (Wall Street Journal).
Actionable Insights
Bullish Case:
Continued Industrial Demand: With ongoing growth in renewable energy and electronics, silver demand is expected to remain strong.
Supply Deficits: Ongoing production challenges could sustain upward price pressure.
Bearish Case:
Economic Recovery: If the global economy recovers faster than expected, investor preference may shift away from safe-haven assets, leading to a price decline.
Interest Rate Increases: If central banks reverse course and raise interest rates, the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver could diminish.
———
Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated.
Level colors:
Daily - blue
Weekly - purple
Monthly - magenta
H4 - aqua
Long trigger - green
Short trigger - red
Clean (not yet tested) breakdown - dashed green
Clean (not yet tested) breakout - dashed red
———
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HelenP. I Gold will continue to move up inside upward channelHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. In this chart, the price declined to support 2, which coincided with the support zone, and some time traded near this level and then rebounded up to support 1. Then Gold turned around and dropped to support 2, and when the price reached this level, it broke it and declined a little below. After this movement, the price in quickly rose back to support 2 and then some time traded in the support zone. Later price made a correction movement again and then started to grow inside an upward channel, where it soon broke support 2. In the channel, the price fell to the trend line, which is the support line of the channel also, and then continued to move up next. Some time later Gold rose to support 1, which coincided with one more support zone and broke this level. Soon, the price rose to the resistance line of the channel and then made a correction to trend line, but a not long time ago it rebounded and continued to rise. For this reason, I expect that XAUUSD will rise to 2800 points inside an upward channel. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
SILVER SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
Hello, Friends!
SILVER pair is in the downtrend because previous week’s candle is red, while the price is obviously rising on the 6H timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 30.534 because the pair is overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
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THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND - ATH 3K SOONER THAN LATER... As illustrated, I'm trying yo visualize the first couple of weeks of FEB.
If things go according to plan, the market should hold its uptrend as it has shown in a healthy and appropriate manner; in other words, respecting key pivot areas, major trendline, demand areas, and so on.
The market structure we are seeing, brings back memories of last year's SEP + OCT + NOV bullishness, where gold just kept rising to higher highs with momentum and steady buying volume.
On a fundamental aspect, the tip of the iceberg starts with the USA GOV confirming a 25% tariff sanctions on MEX & CAD; this doesn't really help much with geopolitical tensions, nor does it pave a "safe path" toward bringing inflation down, since inevitably the consumer market will have to (sooner or later and any other way) pay for such increment in prices; it's just logical. Any company that is getting charged such absurd tariffs MUST SIMPLY RAISE PRICES or stop negotiating with the US... (you be the judge of that one).
Gold continues to have key circumstances that increases its safe heaven demand in times of this degree of uncertainty worldwide.
That being said, THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND!
Look for buy setups on key days of the week.
MON-TUE = LOW OF WEEK ;
WED - THU = EXPANSION ;
FRI = REVERSAL / CONSOLIDATION
--
GOOD LUCK!
Gold (XAU/USD) Reverses from Resistance – Is a Sell-Off UnderwayGold (XAU/USD) Hits Resistance and Faces Reversal – Is the Sell-Off Beginning?
Gold surged to test the upper boundary of its ascending channel, touching key resistance. However, bullish momentum seems to be fading as sellers step in, pushing prices lower. This could signal the start of a pullback, potentially targeting mid-channel support or even the 200 EMA.
If buyers fail to reclaim control, we may see a deeper correction. Eyes are now on the next key support levels—will gold find strength, or is a larger sell-off underway?
XAUUSD Technical correction on the Channel Up started.Gold is trading inside a Channel Up for the entire month of January.
This pattern has so far given 4 corrections/bearish waves, all of which hit their 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level.
Given that the price got rejected today at the top of the pattern, we anticipate that the new technical correction has started.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 2775 (on the 0.5 Fibonacci level, like all previous 4 corrections).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) already formed a Bearish Divergence, which confirms the sell signal.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
GOLD // ideas for both directionsKey Chart (H4)
The daily structure was broken 2 days ago, but the buyers immediately took control, and pushed the price back above the daily long impulse base.
This correction on H4 created a triangle that gives traders a chance to trade both directions.
The dashes levels are clean breakdowns and breakouts (some on lower timeframes) that may stop the price, and where trade management is advisable.
Key Fundamentals
Summary
The gold market is currently experiencing significant activity, with prices holding steady as investors assess the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to maintain interest rates and its implications for economic policy. Additionally, substantial gold shipments from London to New York, driven by tariff concerns, have led to liquidity challenges in the London market. Despite these developments, gold continues to be viewed as a hedge against economic uncertainties.
Key Factors
Federal Reserve’s Recent Decision:
The Federal Reserve announced it would keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, indicating a “wait and see” approach to future monetary policy adjustments. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank is in no rush to alter its policy stance, despite external pressures.
Market Dynamics:
Traders have transferred approximately $82 billion worth of gold from London to New York, anticipating potential tariffs. This movement has led to liquidity issues in the London market, causing delays of four to eight weeks for those trying to access their gold.
Supply and Demand:
The significant gold shipments to the U.S. have resulted in a shortage of bullion in London, as traders accumulate stock in New York due to tariff concerns. The waiting time to withdraw gold from the Bank of England’s vaults has increased from a few days to between four and eight weeks.
Central Bank Activity:
The London gold market is experiencing a surge in demand for borrowing gold from central banks following significant shipments to the United States. This surge is attributed to speculation of potential U.S. import tariffs.
Actionable Insights
Bullish Case:
Economic Uncertainty: If the Federal Reserve maintains its cautious stance and geopolitical tensions escalate, gold prices may rise as investors seek safe-haven assets.
Supply Constraints: The current liquidity issues in London could lead to higher premiums on physical gold, potentially driving up prices.
Bearish Case:
Interest Rate Decisions: Should the Federal Reserve adopt a more hawkish stance in the future, increasing interest rates, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold could rise, leading to potential price declines.
Trade Policy Resolutions: If concerns over tariffs diminish, the recent demand surge for physical gold in New York may wane, potentially easing current supply constraints and stabilizing prices.
———
Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated.
Level colors:
Daily - blue
Weekly - purple
Monthly - magenta
H4 - aqua
Long trigger - green
Short trigger - red
Clean (not yet tested) breakdown - dashed green
Clean (not yet tested) breakout - dashed red
———
Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼♂️
<<please boost 🚀 if you enjoy💚
XAGUSD: Channel Up has started new rally to 37.000Silver turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.696, MACD = 0.197, ADX = 24.838) as it has validated the start of the new bullish wave of the long term Channel Up. The price has been detached from the 1D MA50 and is approaching the December 12th high. The 1D RSI is expanding a rebound from a Double Bottom much like Silver's previous low on August 7th 2024. So far the Channel Up has had two bullish legs of 33.47% and 31.67% respectively. Assuming a slight rate of decline on each subsequent bullish wave, we anticipate the current to reach +29.15% and we are targeting a little under it (TP = 37.000).
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Plan Your Trade : Behind The Scenes - Learning PerspectiveI created this video to help answer a question from a follower.
One of the biggest concerns for traders is how to use my research/info in a way that benefits them.
My Plan Your Trade videos are based on Daily & Weekly price patterns/cycles. I won't delve into the Intraday research much because it is almost impossible to predict 2 to 10-minute price bars/action throughout the day when new hits and external price data may dramatically change how price moves throughout the day. I would have to continue making videos every 30 to 45 minutes to help you understand the dynamics of intraday price action.
Either way, watch this video to learn a bit more about my research and why I'm trying to help traders learn to make better decisions.
I'm really not here to tell you what to trade - or when to trade. I'm here to help you learn to make better trading decisions ON YOUR OWN.
I try to help you learn to become a more knowledgeable and skilled trader by sharing some of my advanced research and demonstrating patterns, setups, price levels, and Cycle Patterns.
The only thing I can do to help you become a better trader is to help you learn better skills and techniques. If you treat trading like gambling, you'll go broke (often). If you understand trading as a process of grabbing profits when efficient and limiting risks, you'll survive and grow your account over time.
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GOLD MAJOR TOP this is the ALT due by 2/3 The chart of GLD has an alt bearish count . The chart labeled shows a 5 wave wave up and at todays high it is a perfect x 1.272 to = at 259.7 I have now moved to a 100 % long in the money PUTS> if how ever we close above 261.8 I would then look for the Original target of 265 plus I will Hold in the money puts best of trades WAVETIMER
Gold XAUUSD Possible Move 31.01.2025 Gold (XAU/USD) Price Action Analysis – Potential Bullish Move
Market Structure & Key Levels:
Current Price: 2,794.63
Resistance Zone: 2,800 - 2,805 (Gray Box - Supply Zone)
Support Zone: 2,785 - 2,788 (Gray Box - Demand Zone)
Major Support (Green Zone): 2,780 - 2,783
Target Level: 2,815
Technical Outlook:
Consolidation Phase:
Price is currently trading within a range-bound structure, oscillating between the supply zone (2,800-2,805) and the demand zone (2,785-2,788).
The rejection from resistance suggests temporary selling pressure, but overall, the structure remains bullish.
Liquidity Grab & Potential Entry:
The price is expected to dip into the green support zone (2,780-2,783) before initiating a strong bullish move.
This area represents a high-probability buy zone, aligning with market liquidity and potential institutional orders.
Bullish Breakout Expectation:
Once price finds support in the green demand zone, a strong push toward 2,805+ is likely.
If price clears 2,805, the next major target should be 2,815 (highlighted in red).
Trade Setup & Signal:
Buy Entry: 2,782 - 2,785 (Upon bullish rejection in the green zone).
Stop-Loss: Below 2,774.
Take-Profit Levels:
First TP: 2,800 (Range Resistance).
Second TP: 2,805 (Breakout Level).
Final TP: 2,815 (Major Target).
Conclusion:
The market is consolidating within a tight range, showing bullish bias.
A dip into the green demand zone (2,780-2,783) is an ideal buying opportunity before price targets 2,805 - 2,815.
Confirmation of a bullish reversal at the key support zone is essential before entering long positions.
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