XAUUSD 23.12.24OANDA:XAUUSD
Hello traders, we are currently in our wave (3) heading towards wave (4) within an ABC correction. Our wave B could either directly transition to wave C or form a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 setup leading to wave C. We have a strong resistance zone at 2620. If we break through this level to the upside, I believe we could see a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 setup. Otherwise, in the case of an ABC correction, we will most likely drop to around the 2300 level. This is both a Fibonacci zone of our (4) wave and the Fib extension take-profit level of our ABC wave.
Metals
GOLD (XAUUSD): Your Trading Plan for Today
If you decided to trade today, there is one potential
shorting opportunity for Gold.
Following my recent update, the price is testing a recently
broken daily horizontal structure at the moment.
On an hourly time frame, the price formed a tiny double top on that.
2621 - 2625 is its neckline.
To sell the market with a confirmation, wait for a bearish breakout of
a neckline and an hourly candle close below that.
Sell aggressively or on a retest then.
Targets will be 2608 / 2600.
If the price sets a new higher high,
the setup will be invalid.
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Gold Long Term Analysis Dec 23rdSo we've seen the Gold price enter a ranging phase in December following the election. Volatility has dropped significantly though, the Gold price did see some fairly large moves due to economic news surrounding price inflation and the Fed's analysis for monetary policy going into 2025. Last week's close saw the gold price respect the current price channel, although we might see some more sideways movement until Donald Trump takes office. I believe the market will be looking to see how the Trump Administration's policies start to solidify and what that means for inflation. Governor Powell said in his Press Conference that the Fed has entered a new phase, noting that the cash rate is still restrictive, however the board was concerned that inflation may have stalled on its way down to the Fed's target. Saying this, there was concern that the labour market was showing signs of weakness and this may prompt the Fed to reduce rates further.
What does this mean for the Gold Price going into 2025? Its not surprising that we have seen some sideways movement following the strong rise through to November. Some uncertainty still surrounds what the Trump admin will do once they take office, Tariffs are the key issue affecting the Gold price primarily what impact they might have on domestic inflation. Geopolitical risk in Russia and the Middle East, along with Central Bank purchases of Gold are providing pretty strong support for the Gold price currently. Though this might change depending on Trump's plans for the creation of a strategic crypto reserve and what he might be able to achieve on a foreign policy standpoint in those two major conflicts.
I would expect the upwards trend in Gold to continue but we may see a continuation of the current ranging pattern until some more certainty arrives after Trump takes office. Although, if history tells us anything, certainty and Donald Trump don't necessarily go well together.
Could the price reverse from here?The Gold (XAU/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the pullback support.
Pivot: 2,673.21
1st Support: 2,556.21
1st Resistance: 2,719.79
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XAUUSD 22/12/25XAUUSD Analysis
Last week, we began with a bullish bias, but our outlook quickly shifted to bearish by Monday's close. This shift led to the significant downside movement observed during the latter half of the week, driven by fundamentals. We saw a substantial run targeting the lower levels, which brings us to today’s bias, which remains bearish.
Currently, we are focused on the three liquidity lows as our primary targets. As always, we look to the highs within the range to provide optimal entries for these targets. At the moment, there is a high in the middle of the range, but we are prioritizing the higher, more favorable highs for potential short positions. If an entry aligns with our plan, this could lead to the final sell-off of the week before the New Year approaches.
Trade safe and stick to your plan.
#202451 - priceactiontds - year end special - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: I know it’s an ugly chart, bear with me.
Gold spent 2020 - 2024 inside a 570 point range and started the recent bull trend with the breakout in 2024-03. Since then Gold has made 30%, which is more than unusual to say the least. From 2018 to 2020 it made 50% but only because it lost 36% from 2011 to 2018.
Market is much less obvious on higher time frames than I’d like. Both sides have reasonable arguments going for them. For bulls it’s that the bull trend is ongoing while bears could see the leg down from 2826 down to 2566 as the first in the new bear trend. Bulls would like a third leg up which could lead to 3000. Both are valid and that is why it’s most likely that the market will move sideways rather than trend big time to either direction. My favorite path forward would be a trend down to 2300 and then sideways inside a big range 2300 - 2600.
current market cycle: Bull trend is ongoing until bears can close consecutive weekly bars below the 20ema, which is at 2640 right now. Could the new bear trend have started with W1 from 2826 down to 2566? Yes. Both can be valid at the same time.
key levels for 2025: 2500 - 3000 (if 2500 breaks, 2300 would be the next big target below)
bull case: Bulls want a W5 up to 3000. Easy as pie is that read and seeing it on the chart. Hard part, as always, is giving probabilities to it and as of now, I won’t make any. The market is in balance around 2650 and I would need prices above 2760 or below 2560 to have a stronger opinion about it. That’s short but all I have to write about it for now. Can’t make stuff up where there is none.
Invalidation is below 2500.
bear case: Bears see the move down from the ath as a W1 of the new bear trend which could lead down to my biggest bear goal for 2025 at 2200ish. Here are the big bear targets in order. First is the 50% retracement of the recent bull trend at 2500. It’s also the breakout price from the W1 high and the old ath from 2011-08. Second bigger target would be 2300 which is a measured move down from the bearish W1 from the ath, the 2023-05 high (breakout-retest) and it would close the big bull gap the market left behind. Third and final target, which is the most unreasonable one for now, is 2200 which is the 50% retracement from the whole bull trend since 2018.
Invalidation is above 3050.
short term: Neutral. Lower highs and higher lows. Market is in a triangle again and in balance around 2650.
medium-long term: Will only give one above 2760 or below 2560.
current swing trade: None
Traders BEWARE! Extreme Volatility In 2025-26. LOOK OUT!I just completed a deep dive into my Adaptive Dynamic Learning modeling system, and I'm here to tell you that 2025 and most of 2026 will be highly volatile.
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Could the Gold reverse from here?The price is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 2,627.88
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 2,655.19
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 2,585.75
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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THE KOG REPORT - ELECTION SPECIAL COMPLETEDKOG first published this chart at the beginning of November prior to the US Election with our view of the movement expected and the trade plan for the month.
We highlighted the path with the Red arrows and added the green arrows with the actual movement. As you can see, we weren't too far off with the projection using it to then trade the levels intra-day and for the swings successfully. It's worked well and combined with our tools, indicators, algo and target activations we can honestly say it's been another great year in Camelot.
We will end this idea here and mark it as completed at the green arrow point above.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
XAGUSD Silver BEARISH - Head & Shoulders and Wedge BreakSilver has two patterns on the Daily TF that indicate a bearish direction ahead.
There is a complete Head & Shoulders pattern and also a Rising Wedge pattern that has been broke. Silver (XAGUSD) has recently had a bullish retracement to re-test both patterns and should start falling soon.
Short-Term TP = $28
Long-Term TP (from Head & Shoulders) = $24.60
Long-Term TP (from Wedge) = $20.70
I expect the short-term TP to be hit at least. The longer-term TP's may or may not be reached. What will probably happen is that the Head & Shoulders target will be reached and Silver will hold up around the $25 level.
NOTE : I personally love Silver and think it's a great long-term investment. I also consider it a highly manipulated market. I am bearish now based solely on the chart, but keep in mind that anything can happen with Silver!
Silver’s Deep Retrace: Long Setup with Bullish Potential I’ve entered a long trade on Silver (XAG/USD) after observing a deep retrace to the 0.7 Fibonacci level on the daily timeframe. The entry at $28.96 is positioned strategically based on historical support and the current technical setup.
The stop loss is set at $26.54 to mitigate risk, while the take profit target is $36.00, aligning with a potential bullish continuation. In the bearish scenario, a break below $27.50 will prompt a reassessment and tighter risk management. Conversely, on the bullish side, breaking above $32.50 will strengthen the case for holding towards the TP.
Silver’s price action showcases its potential for a significant bounce back, supported by current geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions.
Fundamentals:
1. Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Stance:
The Fed’s updated projections for rate cuts in 2025 have pressured silver prices, as a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields (above 4.5%) diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets. However, easing inflation in the long term could rejuvenate demand for precious metals.
2. Geopolitical Tensions:
Although silver traditionally benefits from uncertainty, recent macroeconomic headwinds, such as concerns about tariffs under the new Trump administration and sluggish global economic recovery, have overshadowed its safe-haven status.
3. Industrial Outlook:
Challenges in the industrial demand for silver, particularly from China’s solar panel production slowdown, add pressure. However, as inflation stabilizes and geopolitical risks unfold, silver could regain its industrial and safe-haven allure.
Technicals:
• Entry: $28.96
• Stop Loss: $26.54
• Take Profit: $36.00
• Key Levels:
• Bearish Scenario: Manage position below $27.50.
• Bullish Case: Strength above $32.50 confirms upward momentum.
This setup leverages a confluence of technical retracement, macroeconomic factors, and the potential for a trend reversal. Stay sharp and pay yourself as the market unfolds.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Bearish Outlook For Next Week Explained
Gold closed this week, retesting a recently broken
significant daily horizontal support - a lower boundary
of a wide trading range.
With a high probability, the price will drop from the underlined zone
all the way down to 2563 - the next important structure.
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GOLD → Short to medium term perspectiveFX:XAUUSD after breaking through the support and updating the local minimum is returning to the area of 2620-2625, fueling the hopes of the bulls for possible growth. But, the medium-term picture for gold is not stable. Let's understand
The strong dollar, which soared to local highs is a threat to gold going forward, as the Fed's hints of halting the rate cut course and adopting a hawkish stance on monetary policy has affected the market quite aggressively. There are 2 rate cuts pledged for 2025. Not to forget Trump's policies in general - the impact on rising inflation....
There are two interesting charts online that should not be overlooked:
Statistics play an important role in shaping prices, but it is worthwhile to base this on actual fundamental and technical data. You should not use these statistical charts as primary data, but you can take them into account. We will analyze the dollar in terms of cycles and possible reversal in the second half of January and further as Trump acts....
As for gold, technically, in the short and medium term, I expect the decline to continue for the following reasons:
- the bearish structure is confirmed
- a localized retest of the zone of interest and imbalance is forming before a further fall.
- The bearish trend has not broken within the framework of the December 10-13 movement.
- price updates local lows
We continue to follow the zones: 2631-2636 and 2650
Regards R. Linda!
Gold BULLISH SCENARIO .read description .gold View for BULLISH SCENARIO . might be the next ATH ?
going to sweep the marked tops by closing above 2627.3
then we expecting a retrace around 2664 .
based on what we get on the way we will update the view .
but overall closing above 2715 for few days should take us to ATH as shown in prev idea .
(( this is only for BULLISH SCENARIO )) - for bearish one if we closed below the last low 2540 we going down deep 2471 .
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Dec 22 - Dec 27]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD fell quite sharply from 2,664 USD/oz to 2,582 USD/oz, then recovered to 2,631 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,622 USD/oz.
The reason gold prices dropped sharply this week is because the FED cut interest rates by another 0.25% as predicted. However, what caused disappointed investors to sell off gold was because the Fed chairman said he would only cut interest rates two more times in 2025. Previously, in September 2024, the FED predicted four more cuts. interest rate next year.
In the same context, the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index in November increased by 2.8% over the same period last year, unchanged compared to October, but still much higher than the target. of the Fed is 2%. This also strengthens the possibility that the FED will reduce the current monetary easing cycle.
Furthermore, Donald Trump is about to take office as US President for his second term. If Mr. Trump implements a fiscal expansion policy and sharply increases tariffs with America's trading partners, it will significantly reduce the country's trade deficit, meaning the supply of USD will decrease sharply, pushing the currency This increases, thereby negatively affecting gold prices. Furthermore, Mr. Trump's tax policy also increases inflation, forcing the Fed to delay cutting interest rates, or even raise interest rates again if inflation skyrockets.
Next week's gold price is likely to be torn between FED's monetary policy and geopolitical instability. However, next week, most international investors will be on holiday for Christmas and New Year 2025, so gold trading volume will decrease sharply, causing gold prices next week to only fluctuate within a narrow range.
📌From a technical perspective, next week's gold price will likely continue to adjust and accumulate. Accordingly, if next week's gold price still trades above the threshold of 2,582 USD/oz, it will continue to move sideways within the range of 2,585 - 2,665 USD/oz before the holiday. On the contrary, if next week's gold price is pushed below 2,582 USD/oz, there is a risk of falling to 2,530 USD/oz.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,591 – 2,552 – 2,538USD
Resistance: 2,623 – 2,634 – 2,656USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2666 - 2664⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2670
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2529 - 2531⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2525
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing ema5 play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 2629 and a gap below at 2600. We need ema5 to cross and lock above or below the weighted Goldturns to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2629
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2629 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2655
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2655 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2694
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2694 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2726
BEARISH TARGETS
2600
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2600 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2561
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2561 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2518 - 2486
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD DAILY CHART MID/LONG TERM UPDATEHey Everyone,
Please see the daily chart update we have been trading and tracking for a while now, to give you all an overall view of the range.
After completing 2686 previously we were left with a candle body close break opening the gap above but had no cross and lock therefore confirming rejection for the move down.
We are now seeing price play in the retracement range and expect this range to provide support with the lowest in the range we can see 2560 and support above this level should provide bounces to chase targets above.
We will use our smaller timeframe analysis on the 1H and 4H chart to buy dips from the weighted Goldturns for 30 to 40 pips clean. Ranging markets are perfectly suited for this type of trading, instead of trying to hold longer positions and getting chopped up in the swings up and down in the range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up using our smaller timeframe ideas.
Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we look forward to drops like this, which allows us to continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups.
Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
Another update on the weekly chart idea we have been tracking for over a month now and still playing out as analysed.
As stated already this chart allowed us to project the long term corrections and direction. We are using this chart to track our bullish targets until no ema5 lock to confirm rejections on the levels.
The channel top is continuing to provide support like we stated for the past few weeks, We had a test within the channel into 2590 axis inline with the retracement range, which gave the perfect reactional support bounce.
This is the beauty of our Gold channels, which we draw in our unique way, using averages rather than the price. This enables us to identify fake-outs and breakouts clearly, as minimal noise in the way our channels are drawn.
As long as we see no ema5 break and lock below into the channel, we cane safely continue with our plans to buy dips in this range within the boxes using the levels just like last weeks reactional bounce on the retracement axis level.
We will continue to track the movement down and trade the bounces up, inline with our plans to buy dips, using our smaller time-frames, keeping in mind the long range gaps above for the future.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
SILVER BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
It makes sense for us to go short on SILVER right now from the resistance line above with the target of 29.057 because of the confluence of the two strong factors which are the general downtrend on the previous 1W candle and the overbought situation on the lower TF determined by it’s proximity to the upper BB band.
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HelenP. I Gold can rise a little and then drop to $2590Hi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. Some days ago price made a gap and then reached the support level, which coincided with the support zone. Then XAU broke this level and continued to move up to the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone and soon broke it too. Next, the price rose to 2720 points and then made an impulse down, breaking the resistance level, after which tried to back up, but failed and some time traded below the 2665 level. Some time later, Gold reached the resistance level again and finally broke it one more time, after which rose to the trend line. Then the price turned around and started to decline inside a downward pennant, where it soon dropped to the resistance level and broke it again. Then Gold fell to the support zone, after which turned around and tried to grow but failed and dropped back to the support zone. Recently price finally started to grow and reached an even trend line, which continues to trades close. For this case, I expect that XAUUSD will make a small move up, higher than the trend line, and then start to decline. For this reason, I set my goal at a 2590 support level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️