GOLD Will Move Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 3,337.68.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 3,280.02 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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Metals
SILVER SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
SILVER SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,820.7
Target Level: 3,794.3
Stop Loss: 3,837.9
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Gold Price Update – Testing Key ResistanceGold is currently trading around 3367, showing strong bullish momentum as it continues to form higher lows, which indicates an ongoing uptrend. The market structure is developing inside a rising wedge pattern, with the price consistently respecting both the ascending support and resistance lines.
Gold is now testing a key resistance zone between 3376 and 3450, an area that previously acted as a major supply zone and caused sharp rejections. A successful breakout and close above 3450 will likely confirm a bullish continuation and may open the door for a rally toward 3500 and possibly 3580. However, if gold fails to break this level, it could retrace back to the 3300 or 3250 support zones, especially if a rejection candle forms in the daily timeframe.
📊 Key Technical Highlights:
- Price has approached the upper resistance boundary of the wedge.
- Daily candle is bullish, indicating strong buying momentum.
- However, unless price closes above 3,376–3,450, there’s still a risk of rejection from the top channel and a pullback toward 3,300–3,250.
🔑 Key levels to watch:
- Gold is currently trading around $3,367, just below a crucial horizontal resistance at $3,376
- A strong breakout above $3,376, and especially above $3,450, could open the door for further bullish movement toward the $3,500–$3,600 range, following the upper trendline of the ascending channel.
- On the downside, if price fails to hold the higher low at $3,252, a drop toward $3,200 or even $3,100 is possible aligning with the downward red trendline.
- The structure remains bullish overall, as price is still making higher lows and staying within the rising channel
📊 Weekly Gold Chart Analysis
Gold is currently trading around $3,368, forming a symmetrical triangle pattern on the weekly timeframe. This pattern typically indicates a period of consolidation before a potential breakout in either direction. The price is getting squeezed between lower highs and higher lows, which is a sign of decreasing volatility and approaching breakout.
🔑 Key Technical Insights:
- ✅ Current Structure: Price has been consolidating within a triangle since April 2025 after a strong upward move. It is now near the apex of the triangle, suggesting a breakout is imminent—most likely in the next 1–2 weeks.
🔼 Bullish Breakout:
- If gold breaks above the triangle resistance (~$3,385–$3,393), it could trigger a sharp rally.
- Upside targets post-breakout: $3,450, $3,500, $3,600+ (if momentum continues)
🔽 Bearish Breakdown:
- A break below the triangle support (~$3,335–$3,325) may lead to a deeper correction.
- Downside targets post-breakdown: $3,285, $3,200
- Possibly $3,100–$3,050 if bearish sentiment intensifies
📉 Volume Drop:
As typical with triangles, volume has likely decreased, signaling indecision. Once volume returns, it will likely confirm the breakout direction.
Note
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Gold breaks price channel, officially starts falling✏️ OANDA:XAUUSD price has officially broken the bullish wave structure and broken the bullish channel. A corrective downtrend has begun to form. If there is a pull back to the trendline today, it is considered a good opportunity for sell signals.
The liquidity zone 3250 is the target of this corrective downtrend. The 3283 zone also has to wait for confirmation because when the market falls and the momentum of the decline, the number of FOMO sellers will be very strong. The opposite direction is when closing back above 3375, Gold will return to the uptrend.
📉 Key Levels
SELL zone 3343-3345
Target: 3250
BUY trigger: Rejection candle 3285
Buy zone: 3251
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GOLD recovers after many days of declineOANDA:XAUUSD has recovered after several days of declines. Investors will focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday, which is expected to cause significant market volatility.
Gold hit a three-week low of $3,301 an ounce on Monday, before recovering somewhat on Tuesday after falling for a fourth straight day as the dollar erased some of its earlier gains, boosting demand for the precious metal.
Falling US Treasury yields and a weak US jobs report also prompted investors to buy gold.
Data released by the U.S. Labor Department on Tuesday showed the number of jobs added fell in June after two straight months of gains.
The number of jobs added in June fell to 7.44 million from a revised 7.71 million in May. The median forecast of economists in a survey was 7.5 million.
Focus on the Federal Reserve's decision
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 01:00 IST on Thursday; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy at 01:30 IST on the same day.
The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, with the focus on whether Fed Chairman Powell's speech will provide any clues about the timing or pace of future rate cuts.
The market sees a very low chance of a rate cut in July and a roughly 40% chance of another rate cut in September, up from about 10% last month, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool. Investors will be closely watching the statement and Fed Chairman Powell's remarks at his post-meeting press conference for fresh clues on the timing of the next rate cut.
- If Powell opens the door to a rate cut in September, citing the recent trade deal as a reason to ease uncertainty, US Treasury yields could fall immediately, paving the way for gold prices to rise.
- On the other hand, if Powell avoids committing to a rate cut at this meeting, citing recent rising inflation data, gold prices could fall.
Gold typically performs well in low-interest-rate environments because it does not pay interest and its appeal increases when returns from other assets decline.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has recovered from the key $3,300 price point and is holding above $3,310, which is also the nearest support. However, the current recovery is not technically enough to create a short-term uptrend, or conditions for a sustained price increase. In terms of position, gold is under pressure with the 21-day EMA as the nearest resistance at around $3,340 – $3,350. If gold falls below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it will be eligible to open a new downtrend with a target of around $3,246 in the short term, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level.
On the other hand, RSI is below 50, and the current 50 level acts as momentum resistance in the short term. If RSI slopes down, it will signal bearish momentum with more downside ahead. For gold to qualify for bullish expectations, it needs to at least push price action above EMA21, then retrace back to the price channels and finally break above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level to confirm bullish conditions. The upside target could be towards $3,400 in the short term, more like $3,430 – $3,450.
For the day, the technical outlook for gold prices tends to lean more towards the downside, with the following notable points listed.
Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292 USD
Resistance: 3,340 – 3,350 – 3,371 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3376 - 3374⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3380
→Take Profit 1 3368
↨
→Take Profit 2 3362
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3280 - 3282⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3276
→Take Profit 1 3288
↨
→Take Profit 2 3294
Gold’s Next Move: Bounce or Breakdown?Gold is pulling back after breaking the 3,360 USD resistance on the 6-hour chart. Price is currently testing the nearest fair value gap (3,370–3,380), but upside momentum is stalling, partly due to unfilled supply zones above.
A retest of the lower FVG near 3,340 will be key. Holding above this level could trigger renewed buying, while a break below may invalidate the bullish structure.
Traders should closely monitor whether downside gaps continue to fill and how price behaves near support zones. Lack of strong liquidity could lead to a false breakout.
Gold Price Outlook: A Deeper Correction Ahead?Hello everyone! What are your thoughts on the current gold market?
Gold's decline is picking up speed, with the price now testing the 3,320 USD level. A stronger U.S. dollar, coupled with recent developments in the U.S.-EU trade agreement, has significantly reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
From a technical perspective, the break below the rising price channel is a key signal. It could mark the beginning of a deeper correction, as oscillators are starting to show negative momentum, indicating that the path of least resistance is now downward.
Looking ahead, all eyes will be on Wednesday’s FOMC decision. The market will be watching closely for any signs of a rate cut roadmap from the Federal Reserve, especially during Powell’s press conference. Additionally, several important U.S. macroeconomic data releases this week could provide new momentum for the USD and play a crucial role in shaping gold's next move.
What are your thoughts on where gold is heading? Let us know in the comments below!
Gold suddenly increased sharply Hey everyone, let’s dive into what’s happening with XAUUSD!
Gold is experiencing a remarkable rally this weekend, skyrocketing from the $3,285 zone to around $3,362 — gaining over 700 pips. This sharp move comes amid weakening U.S. labor market data, which has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates as early as September.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (August 1st), non-farm payrolls rose by just 73,000 jobs in July — well below economists’ expectations of 106,000. The disappointing figures have shaken confidence in the U.S. economy and placed pressure on the U.S. dollar, as markets increasingly anticipate a dovish shift from the Fed.
For gold, this weak jobs report reinforces its role as a safe-haven asset, driving strong demand as investors seek protection from economic uncertainty. At the same time, lingering fears around global trade tensions and new tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump continue to support the flight to safety.
From a technical perspective, gold has broken out of its descending price channel and is moving fast. According to Dow Theory, a short-term correction may occur soon, but if price holds above key support levels, the rally could extend toward the $3,432 region — the 1.618 Fibonacci extension zone.
This move might mark the beginning of a new bullish phase after weeks of consolidation.
What do you think — is gold just getting started?
GOLD: Target Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 3,353.10 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 3,335.20..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Possible Gold Reaction Scenarios to Today's Jobs ReportMarket expectations for today's nonfarm payrolls change to be 104k, with the unemployment rate projected to rise to 4.2% from 4.1%. The divergence between payroll growth and the unemployment rate is mainly due to the birth-death model used in payroll calculations and expectations for either a halt or rebound in the labor force participation rate.
Fed Chair Powell recently stated that the "main number to watch" is the unemployment rate, which raises its importance in today’s data release. If the participation rate rises sharply, the unemployment rate could even increase to 4.3%, which may put a cap on the recent rally in the dollar index.
There is also a risk that a very strong payrolls number could be released alongside a rise in the unemployment rate. This combination may trigger a volatile and uncertain market reaction with multiple direction changes.
In similar past scenarios, markets typically reacted first to the payrolls data, then shifted focus to the unemployment rate shortly after.
For gold, look for 3310 and 3288 as pivot levels that could open the door to 3342 on the bullish case and 3270 on the bearish case.
Nonfarm Pay Attention Zone✏️ OANDA:XAUUSD is recovering and increasing towards the resistance zone of yesterday's US session. The 3315 zone is considered a strategic zone for Nonfarm today. A sweep up and then collapse to the liquidity zone of 3250 will be scenario 1 for Nonfarm today. If this important price zone is broken, we will not implement SELL strategies but wait for retests to BUY. It is very possible that when breaking 3315, it will create a DOW wave with the continuation of wave 3 when breaking the peak of wave 1.
📉 Key Levels
SELL trigger: Reject resistance 3315.
Target 3250
BUY Trigger: Break out and retest resistance 3315
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Gold Price Consolidates in Symmetrical Triangle, Breakout Ahead?Gold shows a clear bearish trend within a well-defined downward channel. Price action continues to form lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the ongoing downtrend. The recent rejection from $3,312 suggests that bulls are struggling to regain control, and the market remains pressured by selling momentum. The price is currently hovering near $3,287 just above horizontal support zone.
📉 Potential Scenarios
- Bearish Continuation (Most Likely)
- If price continues to stay below $3,300 and breaks below $3,281, it may aim for $3,261 and $3,249.
- A close below $3,281 would confirm further bearish pressure and signal downside continuation toward the $3,240s range.
- Short-Term Bullish Retracement
- If price holds above $3,281 and breaks above $3,300–$3,312, a relief rally may occur at first resistance: $3,306 and second resistance: $3,312.
- However, unless gold breaks above $3,332 (previous swing high), this would still be considered a bear market rally.
- Range-bound Movement
- A third scenario is sideways price action between $3,281 and $3,312, where neither bulls nor bears take control immediately. This would represent market indecision or awaiting external catalysts (e.g., economic data, Fed policy).
🔍 Trend Outlook
- Short-Term Trend: Bearish
- Medium-Term Trend: Bearish, unless price breaks and sustains above $3,312
- Long-Term Trend: Neutral-to-bullish, as long as price holds above the macro support zone near $3,240
1D Chart Long Term Possible Scenario
The price is currently trading around $3,285, sitting just above the triangle’s ascending trendline support and within a key horizontal demand zone around $3,250–$3,300, which has held multiple times in the past.
If bulls manage to push the price above $3,360–$3,400, it could confirm a breakout and open the door toward the next major resistance at $3,450. However, if price fails to hold above the current ascending trendline, a breakdown could retest the base support near $3,248 or even lower toward $3,150
Gold is currently in a neutral consolidation phase within a symmetrical triangle, with both bullish and bearish breakout scenarios possible. The breakout direction from this pattern—expected in the coming weeks, will likely set the tone for gold's medium-term trend.
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
renderwithme ||| XAU/USD Monthly Analysis (August 2025 Outlook) #Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors, monetary policy, and geopolitical events. Based on recent data:Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25–4.50% in July 2025, with a hawkish tilt, has strengthened the US dollar, putting downward pressure on gold. A stronger USD typically reduces gold’s appeal as it’s priced in dollars. However, expectations of a potential rate cut in September could support gold if signaled by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Watch for updates in the FOMC statement or Powell’s comments for clues on future policy.
#Economic Indicators:
Strong US economic data, such as a robust labor market (jobless claims at a 3-month low) and rising consumer confidence (Conference Board’s Index at 97.2 in July), suggest increased economic activity, which could bolster the USD and limit gold’s upside. Upcoming data like the US PCE Price Index and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in early August will be critical for gauging inflation and labor market trends, impacting gold’s trajectory.
Geopolitical and Safe-Haven Demand: Reduced safe-haven demand due to de-escalating global trade tensions and geopolitical stability has capped gold’s gains. However, any escalation in conflicts (e.g., Russia-Ukraine or Middle East) or renewed trade disputes could drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Central Bank Demand: Continued central bank gold purchases could provide long-term support, but a slowdown in buying might weigh on prices.
# Inflation and Currency Dynamics:
Persistent US inflation supports the USD, limiting gold’s attractiveness. Conversely, a recovering Chinese economy or global policy easing could boost gold demand.
#Technical Analysis
Recent technical data suggests a mixed outlook for XAU/USD on the monthly timeframe:Price Levels and Trends: As of late July 2025, XAU/USD is trading around $3,291–$3,337, consolidating after retreating from a high of $3,440. The monthly chart shows a medium-term uptrend channel that began in early 2025, with support around $3,285–$3,300 and resistance at $3,355–$3,430. A decisive break above $3,355 could signal bullish momentum toward $3,500 or higher, while a break below $3,285 might target $3,130 or lower.
Indicators: The 14-day RSI at 46.10 suggests neutral momentum, neither overbought nor oversold. Technical indicators show mixed signals, with 15 bearish and 11 bullish signals as of July 28, 2025, reinforcing a cautious outlook.
Key Levels: Support: $3,275–$3,225 (major demand zone), $3,130 (potential deeper pullback).
Resistance: $3,355, $3,430, $3,500 (psychological level).
A bearish descending channel on shorter timeframes (e.g., 1H, 3H) suggests potential downside unless $3,320 is breached.
Monthly ForecastBearish Scenario: If the USD remains strong due to hawkish Fed signals, persistent inflation, or robust US economic data, XAU/USD could test support at $3,275–$3,225. A break below this zone might lead to $3,130 or even $2,900 in a deeper correction, especially if safe-haven demand weakens further.
Bullish Scenario: A Fed signal of rate cuts, renewed geopolitical tensions, or increased central bank buying could push gold above $3,355, targeting $3,430 or $3,500. A breakout above $3,430 could aim for $3,830, as suggested by some analysts.
Expected Range: For August 2025, XAU/USD is likely to trade between $3,225 and $3,430, with volatility driven by US economic data and Fed policy updates. A monthly close above $3,430 would strengthen the bullish case, while a close below $3,225 would favor bears.
Trading ConsiderationsRisk Management: Given the mixed signals, use tight stop-losses. For bullish trades, consider entries near $3,275–$3,300 with stops below $3,225. For bearish trades, enter near $3,320 with stops above $3,355.
Key Events to Watch: Monitor the US PCE Price Index, NFP report, and Fed statements in early August for directional cues. Geopolitical developments could also trigger sudden moves.
Volatility: The 30-day volatility is low at 0.91%, suggesting consolidation, but upcoming data releases could spark sharper moves.
# Chart for the reference will give u better idea to take decisions
in my views top has been made
~~ Disclaimer ~~
This analysis is based on recent technical data and market sentiment from web sources. It is for informational \ educational purposes only and not financial advice. Trading involves high risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a SEBI-registered advisor before trading.
# Boost and comment will be highly appreciated.
Will gold bottom out and rebound on July 31st?
1. Key News Drivers
Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: The market generally expects the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance. If economic data (such as ADP, GDP, and PCE) show strong performance, the expected rate cut may be further postponed, which is bearish for gold.
Geopolitics and Risk Aversion: Uncertainty in the US-China trade negotiations and the situation in the Middle East may temporarily support gold prices, but the market is currently more focused on macroeconomic data.
Dollar Trend: If the US dollar index continues to strengthen (driven by expectations of a Fed rate hike), it will suppress gold's rebound potential.
2. Key Technical Signals
Trend Break Confirmation:
The daily chart shows four consecutive declines below the 60-day moving average and the rising trend line, confirming a mid-term correction following the 3439 high.
The next key support is 3245 (previous low). If it falls below this, the price could drop to 3150-3120.
Short-term oversold rebound demand:
The RSI entered the oversold zone, and a technical rebound may occur.
Key rebound resistance level:
3315-3325 (near yesterday's high, short-term short position entry area)
3345-3350 (bull-bear watershed, strong resistance area)
3380-3400 (trend reversal confirmation point, ideal layout position for medium-term short positions)
3. Today's operation strategy
(1) Short-term trading (intraday)
Mainly high-short:
Rebound to 3315-3325, light position short test, stop loss 3335, target 3280-3270.
If it touches 3345-3350, you can add short positions, stop loss 3360, target 3300-3280.
Dip-buying strategy (caution):
If the price stabilizes after a pullback to 3280-3270, short-term buying is recommended, with a stop-loss at 3260 and a target of 3300-3310 (quick entry and exit).
4. Key Risks
Federal Reserve Policy Shift: If the Fed unexpectedly releases dovish signals (such as hinting at a rate cut), it could trigger a rapid rebound in gold prices.
Unfortunate Economic Data: If US GDP, PCE, and other data fall short of expectations, it could boost gold prices in the short term, but after the rebound, it will still be an opportunity to buy higher.
Escalating Geopolitical Conflict: If a major risk event occurs (such as a escalation in the Sino-US trade war), it could temporarily boost safe-haven buying.
Summary
Short-Term: Oversold rebounds may provide opportunities to sell high, with attention to resistance at 3315-3325 and 3345-3350.
Medium-Term: The trend remains bearish, with a target of 3245 to 3150. Any upward movement is considered an opportunity to enter a short position. Trading strategy: Mainly short on rebound, be cautious when buying long orders on rebound, and strictly set stop-loss to prevent unexpected fluctuations.
What a turnaround on copper futuresManipulation? Smells like it, but of course, this is just the market we are currently living in.
Let's dig in.
MARKETSCOM:COPPER
COMEX:HG1!
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Technical Analysis - Gold Rejected at ResistanceGold is currently trading around $3,341 after facing a strong rejection from the $3,438 resistance area. This rejection coincided with the upper boundary of the trend channel and the main resistance zone, which also aligns with the Fibonacci 0.5–0.618 retracement levels. After the rejection, price fell below the descending trendline, indicating that short-term sellers have taken control.
On the downside, the immediate support sits at $3,324, which has acted as a short-term bounce level. A break below this could push gold lower toward $3,281 and potentially $3,254, which are key Fibonacci extension support levels. On the upside, the immediate hurdle is at $3,355–$3,360 (descending trendline). A breakout above this area will be critical for any bullish recovery attempt toward $3,381–$3,394 and eventually $3,420–$3,438.
At the moment, the short-term trend remains bearish because gold is trading below the descending resistance and showing lower highs. However, as long as gold holds above the $3,254 support zone, the medium-term structure remains neutral to bullish, giving bulls a chance if momentum shifts again.
Last week candle is pin bar bearish candle which is showing bearish momentum at the moment. The candle shows rejection near $3,400–$3,450, aligning with the triangle’s upper resistance trendline. If gold cannot reclaim and hold above last week’s high, price may drift lower to retest support zones around $3,248–$3,150 before another breakout attempt.
Note
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Gold Awaits Fed Rate Decision – Key Levels & Volatility AheadGold is currently trading near $3,332, showing a minor recovery after recent downward momentum. The price action on the 1-hour chart highlights a short-term ascending structure, which often acts as a corrective move rather than a strong bullish trend. The market previously saw significant selling pressure from above $3,355–$3,360, creating a short-term supply zone. Unless the price breaks and holds above this zone, the overall momentum remains bearish.
The chart also shows a projected price path where gold could push slightly higher toward $3,355, meet resistance, and potentially reverse downward again. Key support lies at $3,320, and if this breaks, we could see gold testing $3,290–$3,280 levels, aligning with the black trend line support. However, if bulls manage to break above $3,360, it would signal potential upside continuation toward $3,380–$3,400.
Key Points
- Key Resistance Levels: $3,355 and $3,360 (critical supply zone).
- Key Support Levels: $3,320 (short-term), followed by $3,290–$3,280 (major trendline support).
- Expected Short-Term Move: Possible push toward $3,355 → rejection → decline back toward $3,320 and possibly $3,290.
Bullish Breakout Scenario: A strong close above $3,360 could push price toward $3,380–$3,400.
Overall Bias: Bearish while trading below $3,360.
4hr Chart
Price remains under pressure below the descending trendline. A small pullback toward $3,345–$3,350 is possible, but as long as price stays under this resistance, the bias remains bearish with potential downside targets around $3,300–$3,280.
Key Levels:
- Resistance: $3,350 → $3,381 → $3,394
- Support: $3,324 → $3,281 → $3,254
Today’s FOMC interest rate decision is a key driver for Gold. Here’s the quick analysis:
- If Fed Hikes Rates or Maintains Hawkish Tone:
- Strong USD likely → Gold could face more selling pressure.
- Key support zones: $3,324 – $3,300, then $3,281 and $3,254.
- If Fed Pauses or Turns Dovish:
- Dollar weakens → Gold may bounce toward resistance zones.
- Upside levels: $3,355 – $3,360 and higher toward $3,381 – $3,394 (Fib levels).
Expect high volatility; $3,300 is a critical support to watch. A dovish Fed may give Gold short-term relief, but a hawkish stance could accelerate the downtrend.
Note
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Gold Price Update – Bearish Flag Signals Possible Drop AheadGold is currently trading around $3,324, showing consolidation after a recent decline from the $3,345 region. The chart shows a bearish flag pattern forming after the sharp drop, indicating potential continuation of the downtrend. If gold fails to break above this region, sellers may push the price lower towards $3,301 and possibly $3,275.
The descending trend line adds further bearish pressure, limiting upside momentum unless gold decisively breaks and holds above $3,345. Overall, gold remains under short-term bearish sentiment, with the focus on support retests. Any bullish momentum will only be confirmed if the price closes above the flag and trendline resistance.
Key Points
Resistance Zones: $3,328 (0.618 Fib), $3,345 (flag top).
Support Zones: $3,301 (Fib base), $3,284, and $3,275 (bearish extension).
Trend Outlook: Short-term bearish unless price breaks above $3,345 with volume.
Bearish Targets: $3,301 → $3,284 → $3,275.
Bullish Invalidations: Break and close above $3,345 may shift bias to bullish.
Note
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Gold Weekly Outlook (XAUUSD) -28th JulyGold Enters a High-Stakes Week
This week sets the stage for major moves in gold. The charts are signalling liquidity grabs, premium compression, and volatility driven by upcoming macro catalysts.
Key events ahead:
Tuesday: ADP Employment Data
Wednesday: The Fed
Gold is currently consolidating beneath a critical supply zone, suggesting potential for a breakout or rejection. We'll align macro drivers with Smart Money Concepts, ICT methodology, Fibonacci levels, EMAs, RSI, and Fair Value Gaps to craft a precise trading framework.
Technically, price action reflects a corrective phase within a broader uptrend. Confluence support from the ascending trendline and a key horizontal level is in play. As long as price remains above 3342, a bounce toward 3400 remains the preferred scenario.
The broader bullish structure and underlying momentum suggest that once this retracement completes, the uptrend may resume with strength.
🟡 – Summary
🔹 Macro & HTF View:
Bias: Bullish but weakening under premium supply
Key Events: ADP (Tue), FOMC (Wed) → potential for liquidity grabs
Indicators:
RSI divergence (75 → 66)
EMAs flattening
Unfilled FVGs above (3365–3405) and below (3280–3320)
Key Fib targets: 3405 (127%) and 3439 (161.8%)
🔸 Weekly Key Zones
Supply (Short Trap): 3350–3439 → heavy confluence, short bias unless W1 closes above 3439
Primary Demand: 3220–3285 → ideal for news-driven long
Deep Discount (Long Only if Panic): 2960–3050
🎯 Strategy Summary
Short Setup:
Target 3350–3439 → wait for rejection after news
Long Setup:
Target 3220–3285 or deeper
Look for wick rejections + bullish structure reclaim
Avoid: 3285–3350 → indecision zone
🧭 Daily Zones
Sell Zone: 3345–3415 → trap area with FVG + Fib + EMA confluence
Buy Zones:
3290–3320 (primary)
3240–3270 (deeper)
3000–3140 (only if USD spikes)
⏱ H4 + Intraday Bias
Bias: Bearish below 3350
Short Zones:
3365–3405 (rejection only)
3355 (flip zone)
Buy Zones:
3290–3310 (reclaim setup)
3250–3280 (panic flush)
📌 Key Intraday Levels
Resistance: 3405, 3385, 3375–3350, 3350–3340
Support: 3314–3302, 3289–3272, 3260, 3240
⚠️ Final Execution Notes
Stay out of 3340–3326 zone – it’s chop
Wait for confirmation candles (engulfing, pin bars, OB reactions)
Discipline over prediction. Sniper mode only.
Disclaimer: For educational context only.
XAU/USD Trendline Breakout (30.07.2025)The XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 3360
2nd Resistance – 3377
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