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GOLD → Attempt to consolidate above 3350 for growth to 3400FX:XAUUSD , after retesting resistance at 3347, is breaking through the key level, while bulls are trying to hold their ground above support. There is potential for growth to 3400. Gold retreated from its weekly high of $3366 ahead of key US employment data (NFP), which could set a new direction for the movement. But technically, this looks like a correction to consolidate above the level before continuing to rise. After three days of growth, the price faced selling amid a recovery in the dollar and profit-taking. Weak employment data (especially below 100,000) could reinforce expectations of a Fed rate cut as early as July and support gold. Conversely, a strong report will strengthen the dollar and put pressure on the metal. The market is bracing for high volatility Resistance levels: 3363, 3393, 3400 Support levels: 3347, 3336, 3311 The price has entered a new range of 3345-3400. Consolidation is forming above the support level before a possible rise. I do not rule out another retest of 3345-3336 (liquidity zone) before realization and a rally to 3400. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
14
Gold Market Update: Stuck in summer time range / SeasonalityGold is stuck so far last 4-6 weeks in tight range trading conditions due to summer time seasonality also strong gains previously expecting range locked conditions in July as well here's an overview of 5 years and 10 years of seasonality data by month until at least August expecting dead market conditions it's best to focus on trading the range or trading with automated algo instead. Here are the two tables showing month-over-month percent changes in gold prices (London PM fix USD/oz) for June, July, and August: | Year | June Close | July Close | August Close | June % | July % | August % | | ---- | ---------: | ---------: | -----------: | -----: | ------: | -------: | | 2023 | 1,942.90 | 1,951.02 | 1,918.70 | –0.04% | +0.42% | –1.68% | | 2022 | 1,836.57 | 1,732.74 | 1,764.56 | –5.65% | +1.80% | +1.80% | | 2021 | 1,834.57 | 1,807.84 | 1,785.28 | –1.47% | –1.48% | –1.22% | | 2020 | 1,761.04\* | 1,771.65\* | 1,968.16\* | +8.66% | +11.19% | +10.99% | | 2019 | 1,342.66\* | 1,413.39\* | 1,523.00\* | +5.29% | +7.95% | +7.74% | | Year | June Close | July Close | August Close | June % | July % | August % | | ---- | ---------: | ---------: | -----------: | -----: | ------: | -------: | | 2023 | 1,942.90 | 1,951.02 | 1,918.70 | –0.04% | +0.42% | –1.68% | | 2022 | 1,836.57 | 1,732.74 | 1,764.56 | –5.65% | +1.80% | +1.80% | | 2021 | 1,834.57 | 1,807.84 | 1,785.28 | –1.47% | –1.48% | –1.22% | | 2020 | 1,761.04\* | 1,771.65\* | 1,968.16\* | +8.66% | +11.19% | +10.99% | | 2019 | 1,342.66\* | 1,413.39\* | 1,523.00\* | +5.29% | +7.95% | +7.74% | | 2018 | 1,270.00\* | 1,230.00\* | 1,194.00\* | –1.09% | –3.15% | –3.02% | | 2017 | 1,257.00\* | 1,243.00\* | 1,280.00\* | +0.72% | –1.10% | +2.93% | | 2016 | 1,255.00\* | 1,364.00\* | 1,322.00\* | +3.24% | +8.67% | –3.11% | | 2015 | 1,180.00\* | 1,172.00\* | 1,116.00\* | –2.06% | –0.68% | –4.69% | | 2014 | 1,320.00\* | 1,311.00\* | 1,312.00\* | –0.65% | –0.68% | +0.08% | 🔍 Summary Highlights June has been weak more often than not—negative in 6 of the past 10 years. July shows modest gains overall—positive in 7 of the last 10. August is the strongest summer month—positive 6 times out of the past 10, with several double-digit y/y gains (like +10.99% in 2020).
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProjectSyndicate
27
Gold Supported by Trade HopesGold traded around $3,360 per ounce on Thursday, supported by news of a US-Vietnam trade deal and ongoing dollar weakness. The deal, which eases some tariffs on Vietnamese goods, increased hopes for further bilateral agreements. Meanwhile, softer US labor data, ADP figures showed the first payrolls drop in over two years, strengthened the case for Fed easing. Tensions in the Middle East, with Iran halting cooperation with the UN nuclear agency, added a touch of geopolitical risk. Resistance is at $3,395, while support holds at $3,330.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ChartMage
Gold trend analysis and layout before NFP data📰 News information： 1. Initial jobless claims and NFP data 2. The final decision of the Federal Reserve 📈 Technical Analysis： Due to the Independence Day holiday this week, the NFP data was released ahead of schedule today, while the policy differences within the Federal Reserve have brought uncertainty to the market. Judging from the market trend, the 4H level shows that the gold price tested the upper track yesterday and then turned to high-level fluctuations after coming under pressure. In the short term, the structure still has bullish momentum after completing the accumulation of power. Although there was a correction in the US market yesterday, it stopped falling and rebounded near 3335, further confirming the strength. At present, the upper resistance in the European session is at 3365-3375, and the short-term support is at 3345-3335 below. Intraday trading still requires good SL to withstand market fluctuations. In terms of trading, it is recommended to mainly go long on callbacks 🎯 Trading Points： SELL 3365-3375 TP 3350-3340-3335 BUY 3335-3330-3325 TP 3350-3360-3375 In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, confronting your mistakes, and strictly disciplining yourself. I hope my analysis can help you🌐. FXOPEN:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Allenbrowser-3
XAUUSD: Market analysis and strategy on July 3Gold technical analysis Daily chart resistance level 3400, support level 3300 4-hour chart resistance level 3382, support level 3327 1-hour chart resistance level 3364, support level 3341 After bottoming out, the lowest point of yesterday's correction, 3327, has become an important support. Today's gold is still a strategy of buying at a low level. This idea can be maintained before the release of NFP employment data. Tomorrow, the US Independence Day will be closed for one day. The NFP data will be released in advance today, and the trading market will be closed in advance. Judging from the current market trend, today it broke through the previous high of 3357. Today's Asian session slightly rose to 3365 and then quickly fell back to 3341. The low point of the Asian session retracement of 3341 is a small support. The second is the low point of 3333 in the US session yesterday. The support point of 3333/41 can be bought when the European session falls back. The possibility of a unilateral rise in the high point of today before the NFP data is small. I expect it to fluctuate and wait patiently for a pullback to buy. Today's NY market risk is relatively high. Please try to avoid trading during news time! Buy: 3341near Buy: 3333near
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ActuaryJ
Gold Gains Strength as the Dollar Wobbles – What’s Next?Hello, my dear friends – let’s take a fresh look at gold after yesterday’s moves! At the moment, gold is trading steadily around 3,345 USD as the market awaits tonight’s highly anticipated U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report. Yesterday’s ADP data caused a mild shake in sentiment, showing the first drop in private sector employment in over two years. This immediately fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve could move to cut interest rates sooner than expected — putting pressure on the U.S. dollar and offering support to gold as a non-yielding safe haven. Meanwhile, the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) has slipped to its lowest level in nearly three years, making dollar-denominated assets like gold more attractive to international investors. On top of that, lingering geopolitical tensions and ongoing strong central bank buying continue to reinforce gold’s role as a long-term store of value. From a technical perspective on the H4 timeframe, gold is showing a very tight structure after breaking out of a prolonged downtrend channel. Price is currently consolidating between 3,330 and 3,360 USD, with a clearly defined bullish formation: higher highs and higher lows — a strong signal that the uptrend is starting to take shape again. The key level to watch now is 3,358 USD. If price breaks above this level with convincing buying momentum, I expect gold to enter a new bullish leg toward 3,390 – 3,407 USD, aligning with the Fibonacci 1.618 extension — often a magnet for price during strong trends. On the other hand, if there’s a short-term pullback, the support zone around 3,327 – 3,318 USD will be critical, offering a potential re-entry point for buyers looking to ride the next wave up. This is not a phase for impulsive decisions — but it’s definitely not a moment to be passive either. The breakout could come fast, and only prepared traders will be ready to act.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Smith_TradingFX
9
GOLD → Retesting resistance may lead to a breakout.FX:XAUUSD breaks the downward resistance line on the senior timeframe and tests the upper limit of the trading range amid the falling dollar and Powell's speech. The metal may continue its upward movement. The dollar's rise was short-lived after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at an imminent interest rate cut, but not in July... The probability of a rate cut in July fell to 22%, and in September to 72%. Markets are awaiting fresh employment data (ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls), which could influence the prospects for rate cuts. Weak reports could revive interest in gold, but for now, the asset remains under pressure due to the short-term strengthening of the dollar and uncertainty surrounding Fed policy. Technically, if the pre-breakout structure remains intact and gold continues to attack resistance within the local range of 3347-3330 (3335), the chances of further growth will be high... Resistance levels: 3347, 3358 Support levels: 3336, 3316, 3311 The global trend is upward, and locally, the price is also returning to growth. If the bulls can maintain the current trend, break through the resistance at 3347, and hold their ground above this level, then the next target will be 3390-3400. I do not rule out a correction to 3325, 3316 (liquidity hunt) before the growth continues. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
44
XAUUSD M15 I Bearish Reversal Based on the M15 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 3355, a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8 Fib retracement. Our take profit is set at 3343 an overlap support. The stop loss is set at 3365.97, a swing high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:XAUUSDShort
by Tradu
XAUUSD — July 3rd, 2025: Is the Downtrend Finally Over?Gold (XAUUSD) opened today with a bullish gap, and continued the momentum from Tuesday’s breakout above the major downtrendline that had capped the market for weeks. This technical breakout was long-awaited by many traders, and it's now leading us into a potential trend reversal phase — but not without resistance. Price has now reached a critical resistance zone at 3366, which previously acted as a strong supply area during the last leg of the downtrend. If this level is broken decisively (ideally with a 4H candle close and follow-through), it may signal a clean shift toward a mid-term uptrend, with upside targets at 3379, 3403, and even 3430. That said, rejection at 3366 has already triggered a minor pullback. We’re now watching the 3343–3351 zone as a potential support and an optimal buy entry area. If this zone holds, it could provide the fuel needed for bulls to continue their push. 🟢 Suggested Trade Plan BUY LIMIT 3343–3351 Stop Loss 3325 Take Profit 1 3379 Take Profit 2 3403 Take Profit 3 3430 (Alternatively, consider a BUY STOP above 3370 in case of direct breakout) 📌 Market Structure Resistance 3 3430 Resistance 2 3403 Resistance 1 3382 Pivot 3366 Support 1 3342 Support 2 3322 Support 3 3305 ⚠️ Important Macro Alert Today’s session is highly risky due to the early release of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which is scheduled today instead of Friday because of the U.S. Independence Day (July 4) holiday tomorrow. This brings a major volatility spike risk during the New York session. Manage your position size wisely, avoid emotional trades, and wait for solid confirmations. Discipline beats prediction. Trade what you see — not what you feel. Keep healthy so we can keep trading and we can keep on profiting.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AbsoluteWillid
Ramelius Resources (ASX: RMS) –A Tactical Re-Entry Zone?🟡 Gold-Linked Opportunity: Ramelius Resources (ASX: RMS) – A Tactical Re-Entry Zone? Context: Ramelius Resources, a mid-tier Aussie gold producer, is showing signs of technical exhaustion after a strong rally from its 2024 lows. With gold prices consolidating and RMS pulling back to a key support zone, this could be a tactical opportunity for shareholders and swing traders alike. 📊 Technical Snapshot: Current Price: $2.47 Trendline Support: The long-term ascending trendline remains intact, offering a potential re-entry zone for bulls. Risk-Reward Setup: Defined green/red zones highlight a favorable R:R ratio for those targeting a rebound toward $2.80–$3.00. 🪙 Gold Correlation Insight: The inset chart shows gold (XAU/USD) stabilizing after a volatile June. If gold resumes its uptrend, RMS could follow suit, given its strong correlation with bullion prices. 🧠 Psychological Angle: After a 40%+ rally from the $1.78 low, some profit-taking is natural. But this pullback may shake out weak hands before a continuation move. Watch for sentiment shifts around gold and broader risk appetite—these could be catalysts for RMS’s next leg. #RMS #Gold #ASX #MJTrading #Forex #Trading #Investment
ASX:RMSLong
by MJElahifx
MR. COPPER GOES FUN. WITH DONALD TRUMP — IT IS A BULL RUNCopper prices in 2025 are up about 27 percent year-to-date, driven by a complex interplay of technical and fundamental factors, with geopolitical events such as the Trump administration's tariff policies and the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East having a significant impact. Fundamental Outlook: The main driver of copper prices in 2025 is the ongoing global surge in demand driven by the transition to clean energy. Copper is essential for electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy infrastructure, and grid upgrades, all of which require extensive use of copper due to its superior electrical conductivity. For example, EVs use about 2-4 times more copper than traditional vehicles, and renewable installations such as wind turbines contain several tons of copper each. This structural growth in demand underpins the optimistic outlook for copper in the medium to long term. On the supply side, however, copper production is growing. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a global copper surplus of 289,000 tonnes in 2025, more than double the 2024 surplus. This surplus is driven by rising production, particularly from new or expanded operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mongolia, Russia and elsewhere. Capacity increases in these regions, coupled with smelter growth, could contribute to a supply glut despite strong demand. Conversely, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could disrupt bauxite and alumina supply chains, a region that is a strategically important supplier of raw materials. Impact of Trump Tariffs: The Trump administration’s threats and actions to impose tariffs on U.S. copper imports have added volatility and complexity to the market. The tariff announcement triggered a sharp sell-off in early April 2025 as concerns about the impact on US manufactured demand and global trade flows grew. London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices fell to one-month lows following China’s retaliatory tariffs, before partially recovering after some tariff exemptions and reductions were announced. The tariffs also distorted physical supply chains. Traders rushed to deliver copper to the US ahead of the tariffs, reducing copper availability in other regions such as China. This arbitrage resulted in a significant widening of the price differential between US CME copper contracts and LME copper prices, with US prices trading at a premium of over 10% to London. This premium reflects the tariff risk embedded in the US copper price and expectations of temporary domestic market tensions. Technical Outlook: Technically, copper prices have shown resilience despite the tariff shocks. Copper prices sold off after peaking in late March 2025 before the tariffs were announced, but have since begun to recover. Long-term trendlines and moving averages remain supportive, with the 100-week and 200-week moving averages trending higher and forming a bullish crossover earlier in the year. Long-term copper prices are once again attacking the 18-year resistance around $4.50/lb ($10/kg) that capped the upside in 2008 and again in the 2010s and first half of the 2020s, with a 1.5x rally in the next 1 to 3 years. The technical main chart of the COMEX December 2025 copper futures contract COMEX:HGZ2025 points to the possibility of an upside move, all the way to the $7 mark (around $15/kg) as early as H2 2025. Conclusion Going forward, copper prices are expected to remain volatile but supported by long-term structural demand growth, with the impact of tariffs likely to cause episodic disruptions rather than a sustained suppression of increasingly hot prices. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team😎
COMEX:HGZ2025
by PandorraResearch
ADP data has been released, how to position gold in the future📰 News information： 1. ADP data, for reference of tomorrow's NFP data 2. Interest rate cuts and Powell's dovish comments 3. Geopolitical impact on the gold market 📈 Technical Analysis： The ADP data was significantly bullish after it was released, but gold did not rise sharply in the short term. Instead, it touched the resistance of 3350 that we gave and then fell back. I also saw a lot of fake traders in the market who immediately told their brothers to go long and look towards 3380 after the ADP data was released. To be honest, I think these people are typical hindsight experts. If everyone is like this, then anyone can be called a trader, right? Back to the topic, I still hold short orders at 3340-3350. In the short term, gold will fluctuate and be bearish to seek restorative support, so the best place to go long is to look at the retracement below, which will at least touch 3333-3323. If it falls below this support, it will go to 3315-3305. On the contrary, if it gets effective support at 3333-3323, then gold will rebound as expected to form a head and shoulders bottom. 🎯 Trading Points： SELL 3340-3350-3355 TP 3333-3323-3315-3295 BUY 3335-3325 TP 3345-3355-3375 In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, confronting your mistakes, and strictly disciplining yourself. I hope my analysis can help you🌐. FXOPEN:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Allenbrowser-3
Bullish rise for the Gold?The price is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit. Entry: 3,344.54 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Stop loss: 3,302.57 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 3,403.53 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by VantageMarkets
GOLD 4H: structure broken - phase reversal beginsTwo key directional signals were recorded on the gold chart: first, a breakdown of the ascending channel, followed by a confident downward exit from the triangle with a clear fixation under the $3297 boundary. Both figures worked independently, but consistently - and strengthened the impulse towards selling. The price has already gone beyond the lower boundary of the triangle ($3297), confirming the bearish scenario. Candlesticks closing under the level and local consolidation from below is a characteristic formation before the momentum continues. Technical parameters: - Channel breakout: completed - Triangle breakout: $3297 level - Retest from below: expected as confirmation - EMAs reversed downwards, structure broken - Volumes strengthened at the moment of breakout Tactical plan: - Sell after retest of $3297 - Targets on the move: $3248 and $3201 - Stop: above $3305 (above the area of false outs). The current structure indicates the end of the accumulation phase and the beginning of the downward momentum. As long as the price holds below $3297 - shorts are the priority.
TVC:GOLDShort
by TotoshkaTrades
XAUUSD: Eyes $3,800 based on this 2 year pattern.Gold turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.131, MACD = 4.646, ADX = 13.719) as after last week's selling, it recovered yesterday its 1D MA50, restoring the bullish trend. The long term trend has been extremely bullish after all and the past 2 months have simply been a consolidation stage through a Triangle pattern that worked as accumulation for the next bullish wave. On this 2 year pattern, typical waves rose by at least +22.57%. Once the 1D MA50 turns into a support again, we anticipate that a new Channel Up will push Gold to a TP = 3,800. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by InvestingScope
1
ADA/USDT : Get Ready for another Bullrun (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #Cardano chart on the 3-day timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around $0.59. After sweeping the liquidity below $0.51, our bullish outlook for the next upward wave has strengthened significantly. I'm now expecting a strong move from ADA, with short-term targets at $0.61 and $0.76, and longer-term targets at $0.93, $1.05, and $1.33! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
1
“Accumulation, Breakout, Repeat: SBSW’s Time Again?” SBSW | Weekly Chart Analysis 4-Year Cycle | Smart Money Levels | Precious Metals Macro Tailwind This chart paints a clear picture — Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW) has followed a reliable 4-year accumulation-to-expansion cycle: 🔹 2015–2016 🔹 2019–2021 🔹 Now shaping up for 2025–2026 Each rally kicked off after institutional accumulation around the $3 level, and once again, we’re seeing the same behavior. History doesn’t just rhyme — it repeats. 🧠 Smart Money Moves Every major cycle began after price based out near the $3 level. That’s exactly what we’ve just seen — accumulation, basing, and now lift-off. We’ve entered a familiar pattern — the same smart money footprints showing up again. 📊 Technical Breakdown This is the weekly chart, and we’re now testing the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level (7.39) drawn from the 2020 high to the recent low. ✅ A weekly close above this level + structure building could confirm the beginning of a long-term leg higher. 📈 Volume Flow Indicator has crossed above the midline for the first time in years, suggesting that real buying pressure is back. That’s a shift in momentum worth noting. 🎯 Key Areas of Interest: • $10.00 – Volume node + prior S/R • $12.00 – Fib midpoint + prior pivot • $14.90 – Confluence zone These are zones where I’ll be watching for continuation, reaction, or reversal. 🌎 Macro Tailwind: Precious Metals Demand Platinum and palladium are gaining renewed attention as demand increases in EVs, clean energy, and industrial sectors. SBSW — with its deep exposure to both metals — is positioned as a long-term beneficiary if this trend continues. Add to that the recent global instability and de-dollarization chatter, and you’ve got a macro backdrop favoring real assets over paper. Precious metals are catching a bid — and SBSW could ride that wave. 🧠 My Position Started buying $4.00 calls and recently rolled to $5.50s. I’m letting this one develop over time — watching for confirmation and continuation. (Not financial advice — just sharing my perspective as always.) 🕰️ Cycles matter. 📚 History teaches. 💰 Smart money accumulates before the breakout. This setup has all the hallmarks of a repeat cycle in progress. I’m locked in. — 📍 Long-term chartwork, weekly timeframe. Zoom out to see the rhythm. SBSW | Weekly Chart Analysis 4-Year Cycle | Smart Money Levels | Precious Metals Macro Tailwind This chart paints a clear picture — Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW) has followed a reliable 4-year accumulation-to-expansion cycle: 🔹 2015–2016 🔹 2019–2021 🔹 Now shaping up for 2025–2026 Each rally kicked off after institutional accumulation around the $3 level, and once again, we’re seeing the same behavior. History doesn’t just rhyme — it repeats. 🧠 Smart Money Moves Every major cycle began after price based out near the $3 level. That’s exactly what we’ve just seen — accumulation, basing, and now lift-off. We’ve entered a familiar pattern — the same smart money footprints showing up again. 📊 Technical Breakdown This is the weekly chart, and we’re now testing the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level (7.39) drawn from the 2020 high to the recent low. ✅ A weekly close above this level + structure building could confirm the beginning of a long-term leg higher. 📈 Volume Flow Indicator has crossed above the midline for the first time in years, suggesting that real buying pressure is back. That’s a shift in momentum worth noting. 🎯 Key Areas of Interest: • $10.00 – Volume node + prior S/R • $12.00 – Fib midpoint + prior pivot • $14.90 – Confluence zone These are zones where I’ll be watching for continuation, reaction, or reversal. 🌎 Macro Tailwind: Precious Metals Demand Platinum and palladium are gaining renewed attention as demand increases in EVs, clean energy, and industrial sectors. SBSW — with its deep exposure to both metals — is positioned as a long-term beneficiary if this trend continues. Add to that the recent global instability and de-dollarization chatter, and you’ve got a macro backdrop favoring real assets over paper. Precious metals are catching a bid — and SBSW could ride that wave. 🧠 My Position Started buying $4.00 calls and recently rolled to $5.50s. I’m letting this one develop over time — watching for confirmation and continuation. (Not financial advice — just sharing my perspective as always.) 🕰️ Cycles matter. 📚 History teaches. 💰 Smart money accumulates before the breakout. This setup has all the hallmarks of a repeat cycle in progress. I’m locked in. 📍 Long-term chartwork, weekly timeframe. Zoom out to see the rhythm. 🛑 Invalidation below $5.50 — no structure, no conviction, I’m out. If SBSW breaks back below the $5.50 level with high volume and fails to reclaim it quickly, that would invalidate the current breakout structure and suggest this move was a false start. I'd reassess the cycle thesis if we revisit the $4 range with no buyer defense. Please feel free to comment and let me your opinion
NYSE:SBSWLong
by DC_Trading_Journey
1