Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed flat as the market digested the previous day's FOMC decision to hold interest rates and major corporate earnings reports. The strategy of selling at the 5-day moving average proved effective, and despite the FOMC decision and earnings from Tesla and Microsoft, the index remained within a range-bound market. On the daily chart, the MACD is still above the signal line and the zero line, indicating that the buy signal is still intact. However, as there has been no significant volatility, the gap between the indicators remains narrow, maintaining the current range. Since the buy signal is still valid, it would be advantageous to monitor whether the gap-down from January 27 is filled and trade accordingly within the range.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has crossed above the signal line below the zero line and is now consolidating. For the MACD to cross below the signal line, a sharp decline would be necessary, but given the current spread between the MACD and the signal line, such a drop appears unlikely. Instead, if the market continues to consolidate and the MACD and signal line converge, the next move—whether another buying wave or a selling wave—will determine the trend. Since key economic reports, including the GDP release and Apple’s earnings, are due today, it would be best to adopt a range-bound strategy.
Crude Oil
Crude oil faced resistance at $74 and closed lower. On the daily chart, the sell signal remains intact, with prices failing to break above the 5-day moving average and continuing to decline within a downward channel. Prices are currently supported around the $72 level. For a bullish outlook, it would be crucial to see a strong bullish candlestick breaking above the downward channel's upper boundary at around $73.60.
On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and signal line remain below the zero line. While the MACD has crossed above the signal line, the price has not surged, resulting in only a narrow spread. Given that the $72–73 range has historically been a strong support zone, it would be preferable to buy on pullbacks. However, if the price breaks below this range and a sell signal emerges, it will be important to monitor whether the $72 level holds as support.
Gold
Gold closed flat on the daily chart, maintaining a buy signal. The MACD and signal line are gradually converging, but the spread remains sufficient to prevent an immediate shift to a sell signal. If the MACD turns upward, further gains are likely. A key factor to watch is whether the weekly candlestick forms a bullish pattern and the MACD crosses above the signal line. Key resistance levels are at 2800 and 2820.
On the 240-minute chart, the buy signal is still intact, but the spread has narrowed, indicating weaker momentum. The market is range-bound with mixed buying and selling pressure. As long as no sell signal appears on the 240-minute chart, a buy-on-dip strategy is preferable. However, keep in mind that upcoming economic data releases may lead to pre-market consolidation.
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 21470 / 21400 / 21360 / 21285 / 21220
-Sell Levels: 21625 / 21680 / 21770 / 21890
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 72.60 / 72.00 / 71.40 / 70.50
-Sell Levels: 73.40 / 73.85 / 74.40 / 75.00
GOLD - Bullish Market(April)
-Buy Levels: 2793 / 2787 / 2777 / 2773 / 2768
-Sell Levels: 2803 / 2809 / 2813 / 2821
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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Metals
Gold Buy Limit OrderHey guys.
We have a beautiful FVG and I think this area is good to set an order.
There are other areas in this leg that I'm interested in, but I think this one has the most potential.
Let's see what happens next week.
Good luck.
Dear traders, please support my ideas with your likes and comments to motivate me to publish more signals and analysis for you.
Best Regards
Navid Nazarian
SHORT SILVER (XAGUSD) Based on Trend Exhaustion & Mean ReversionThe line-work pretty much spells it out ...
Not shown are the pitchforks that generated some of the trendlines. The Resistance/Support Channel is derived from the same. The AVWAP establishes the "horizontal" (i.e. "momentary) component of the range, while the diagonals establish the "arguably more reliable"trading range. The anchored Volume Profile lends further corroboration.
GOLD → Consolidation ahead of Fed rate meetingFX:XAUUSD is recovering ahead of Fed rates and Powell's speech. The price is consolidating as traders are not ready for premature action. What could happen?
Gold is holding near $2,770 in Asian trading in anticipation of Wednesday's Fed decision. Investors are cautious as the regulator may pause rate cuts and give hints on future policy. Markets expect two 25bp cuts this year, but Powell's rhetoric will determine the way forward.
Factors supporting gold: dollar correction, risk stabilization and holiday season in Asia. However, Trump's trade policy may increase inflation, forcing the Fed to keep high rates longer, which is negative for gold.
But! Further movement depends solely on Powell's rhetoric.
Resistance levels: 2765, 2771
Support levels: 2759, 2745
Technically, after breaking the bullish structure and updating the lows, the price is recovering in search of resistance and liquidity to continue the probable decline. But it depends on economic data. Possible false break of 2771 resistance before further decline.
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD: Channel Up intact and is targeting 3,000.Gold is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.990, MACD = 28.040, ADX = 55.806) despite consolidating for the past 7 days. The reason is that the long term Channel Up is intact and in fact has started its new bullish wave by crossing over the HH trendline. This has already happened twice inside the pattern and in those instances, as long as the 1D MA50 remained intact, the rise reached the 2.618 Fibonacci extension. Our target this time is a little lower (TP = 3,000).
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SILVER - Potential Short Setup at Key Resistance LevelOANDA:XAGUSD is currently testing a key resistance level, presenting a potential sell opportunity. If price fails to break above and holds below this resistance, a downward move towards 30.61800 could be expected.
A rejection at this level—confirmed by a bearish candlestick pattern or strong selling pressure—would strengthen the bearish outlook. Traders should watch for signs of failure to break resistance, which would support the short position. However, if the price breaks and closes above resistance, the bearish scenario would be invalidated, and the bias would shift to the upside.
This is not financial advice but rather how I approach support/resistance zones. Remember, always wait for confirmation, like a rejection candle or volume spike before jumping in.
Please boost this post, every like and comment drives me to bring you more ideas! I’d love to hear your perspective in the comments.
Best of luck , TrendDiva
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Once again our levels were respected allowing us to buy dips inline with our plans.
After completing a nice bull run yesterday we got a break above 2757 opening the range above, which gave over 90 pips and just fell short of the gap that remains on our radar.
We saw a rejection onto our weighted level below 2746, which gave a clean bounce like we always state on our charts ideas.
We are now seeing price play into the retracement range, where we expect a reaction for support. A break below the retracement range will open the swing range. Failure to break will see price retest the Goldturns above once again.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2778
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2778 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2787
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2787 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2797
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2797 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2808
BEARISH TARGETS
2768 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2768 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2757 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2757 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2746 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2746 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2732 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2732 WILL OPEN THE SWIG RAGE
SWING RANGE
2707 - 2697
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Silver Price Setup = Major Move Ahead?Silver (XAG/USD) Analysis – Breakout Incoming?
Silver (XAG/USD) is currently testing a key resistance zone after a strong upward move, supported by a rising trendline. The price has respected this trendline multiple times, confirming its role as a strong support level. If bulls push beyond the resistance zone, a breakout could trigger further upside momentum.
Key Insights:
🔹 Trendline Support – The ascending trendline has acted as a strong base for price action, providing steady higher lows.
🔹 Key Resistance Zone – Price has faced multiple rejections here in the past, making it a crucial breakout level.
🔹 Potential Breakout Setup – If Silver breaks and holds above resistance, we could see a rally towards $31.50–$32.50+
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-29 : GAP ReversalToday's pattern suggests the markets are going to start off with a bit of a bang.
Although I expect the markets to try to hold up with some support, I believe, ultimately, the markets will break downward - continuing into the Deep-V Feb 9-10 bottom my cycles are projecting.
Gold and Silver are acting to attempt to hedge the global risks and could explode much higher over the next 30 - 60+ days.
Bitcoin looks like it will continue to move downward, first to 98k, then to 92k.
I'm seeing lots of Excess Phase Peak patterns in price action. This suggests the markets are struggling for direction right now and could move aggressively into a downward cycle phase before the Feb 9-10 Deep-V base/bottom.
Either way, we are going to find a lot of opportunities over the next 30+ days as traders.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
GOLD / Toward New Record or Reversal...Gold Technical Analysis
Gold hit our 2766 target as expected. It is now attempting to reach 2753 while trading below 2759.
A 4-hour candle close below 2759 would reinforce a bearish outlook, targeting 2748 and 2739, with a break below 2731 confirming further downside.
Conversely, if 2759 holds with a strong 4-hour candle volume, gold could gain momentum toward 2772 and 2788.
Key Levels
Pivot Point: 2759
Resistance Levels: 2772, 2788, 2805
Support Levels: 2747, 2739, 2731
Trend Outlook
Bearish: If the price breaks below 2758
Bullish: While the price stays above 2759
Bullish Confirmation: Requires a break above 2759
previous idea:
SILVER Trading Opportunity! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for SILVER below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 30.495
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 30.267
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GOLD BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
The BB upper band is nearby so GOLD is in the overbought territory. Thus, despite the uptrend on the 1W timeframe I think that we will see a bearish reaction from the resistance line above and a move down towards the target at around 2,669.716.
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XAU: Gold's Supply Area: A Short Opportunity?As the market for gold fluctuates, there may be an opportunity to consider a speculative short position. Currently, gold appears to be retesting a supply zone, an area where selling pressure could drive prices lower. This retest may signal a shift in market sentiment, potentially leading to a retracement back to prior demand zones.
Technical Indicators: Observing price action and key technical indicators can reveal signs of weakness in gold's bullish momentum, supporting the case for a downward move.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Although taking an aggressive stance comes with risks, a well-placed stop-loss and clear profit targets can create a favorable risk-reward scenario.
Conclusion
Given these market dynamics, a speculative short position in gold, targeted at previous demand zones, could be worth considering. As always, it's essential to stay informed and manage risks effectively. What are your thoughts on this approach?
✅ Please share your thoughts about XAU in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Learn Supply and Demand Basics in Gold XAAUSD Trading
In this article, we will discuss the basic principles of Smart Money Concepts in Gold trading.
I will explain to you how Gold price relates to supply and demand on the market. What is a fair value and how to identify it.
We will discuss a relation between a fair value and supply and demand and why is it so important to learn to recognize the imbalance.
Gold Price
First, let's briefly discuss how the price of Gold is valued .
Gold price is determined by the basic economic principles of supply and demand.
Supply is defined by the actions of the sellers and selling volumes.
While a demand is defined by the activity of buyers and the volumes they wish to purchase.
When supply exceeds demand, it leads to a decline in prices.
Increased selling pressure leads to lower prices as sellers compete to attract buyers.
Above, you can see how the excess of demand pushes Gold prices up rapidly.
When demand exceeds supply, we see an increase in the price of the financial asset.
In the example above, you can see how the excess of supply leads to a depreciation of a Gold price.
Imbalance & Fair Value
The excess of supply or demand on the market is also called an imbalance in Smart Money Concept trading SMC.
The imbalance causes strong bullish or bearish movement on the market.
However, such moves do not last forever.
At some moment, reaching a particular price level, the market will stop growing or falling, and the market will find the equilibrium in supply and demand.
Such an equilibrium is also called a fair value in SMC trading.
On the chart above, Gold was growing rapidly. After reaching some price level, the growth stopped and the market found a fair value.
Supply finally absorbed the excess of demand.
Sideways Movement & Range
When the market finds a fair value, it usually starts trading in sideways . The sideways movement forms a horizontal range - a horizontal parallel channel.
Such ranges signify that the market participants agree about a current price of an asset.
Above, you can see that after a strong up movement, Gold found a fair value and a consolidation within a horizontal range started.
Fair Value Range
When you spotted the range, you should remember that the market may stay within that for a very long period of time.
The trigger that will make the market reassess the fair value is typically a some important fundamental factor, the surprising geopolitical or economic event that will create a new imbalance on the market.
A strong signal that the market strives to find a new fair value is the breakout of one of the boundaries of the range. It is a signal of a violation of a current fair value.
You can see that Gold found a fair value and was stuck for quite a long period within a wide horizontal range. Then, because of the release of significant US fundamental news, an imbalance occurred. Fair value range was violated, and the price found a new fair value higher.
Trading Tips
When the imbalance on the market occurs and it violates the fair value, the price tends to find a new fair value around significant liquidity zones.
That is why it is so critical to pay attention to them.
Also, the laws of supply and demand, imbalance and fair value work on any time frame and can be applied for any trading style.
Learn to perceive a price chart from a Supply and Demand perspective in order to master Smart Money Concept trading strategy.
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DeGRAM | GOLD pullback from resistanceGOLD is above the ascending channel.
The price is moving from the resistance level, which was previously a pullback point.
We expect the pullback to continue if the chart consolidates in the channel.
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Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
XAUUSD - Gold awaits the Fed meeting!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If gold rises to the previous ATH, we can look for selling positions at the ceiling marked with the target of the bottom of the ascending channel. A correction of gold towards the demand zone will provide us with its next buying position.
Sergio Ermotti, CEO of UBS, has warned that the anticipated interest rate cuts could be delayed if Donald Trump’s second-term tariffs take effect and drive inflation higher.
Speaking with Andrew Ross Sorkin of CNBC, he stated:
“I have been saying for some time that inflation is far more persistent than we initially thought. The key question now is how tariffs will impact inflation.”
He further added:
“Tariffs are unlikely to help in reducing inflation. Therefore, I do not expect rates to drop as quickly as many anticipate.”
With Trump’s trade policies in play, the risk of rising inflation is high, and a major clash between Trump and the Federal Reserve over interest rate cuts seems inevitable. Such tensions could negatively impact the U.S. dollar.
Meanwhile, Scott Bessant, the newly appointed U.S. Treasury Secretary, is proposing a gradual global tariff plan starting at 2.5%, which will increase monthly and could reach up to 20%. This strategy aims to give businesses time to adjust to the new economic landscape. The Financial Times reported this plan, citing anonymous sources for details.
At the same time, the U.S.Senate has confirmed Scott Bessant as Treasury Secretary with a majority vote. This decision comes as Trump imposes a 25% tariff on imports from Colombia, reinforcing his aggressive trade policy stance.
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting is set to conclude today, and it is widely expected that interest rates will remain unchanged. However, analysts argue that gold markets are now focusing more on Trump’s policies rather than short-term aggressive monetary measures.
Gold prices rallied after Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. In a video address to global business leaders and policymakers, he urged central banks worldwide to cut interest rates. Trump stated:
“I am strongly calling for an immediate rate cut, and this must happen globally.”
Economists note that Trump’s remarks contradict the current economic reality, as a relatively strong economy continues to fuel persistent inflation. In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve has warned consumers about growing upside inflation risks and is seeking to shorten the current monetary easing cycle.
Ahead of this week’s policy meeting, markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady, with only one rate cut projected for this year.
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, believes that the divergent views between Trump and the Federal Reserve have created uncertainty, benefiting gold as a safe-haven asset.
He further stated that the recent bullish momentum in the gold market suggests that the $2,800 price level may just be the beginning. Hansen concluded:
“As long as this uncertainty persists, I see no risk of overheating. Any downside break could trigger fresh buying interest.”
Silver Declines as Trump’s Tariff Threats Shake MarketsSilver fell to $30 per ounce on Wednesday, extending losses as the dollar rebounded amid Trump’s escalating tariff threats. Trump announced tariffs on chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper to boost domestic production. Traders remained cautious ahead of the February 1 tariff deadline for China, Mexico, and Canada.
Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged this week. In China, overcapacity in the solar panel industry led firms to adopt a government-led self-discipline program, potentially limiting silver demand.
Technically, the first resistance level will be 31.00 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 31.80 and 32.50 consequently. On the downside 29.85 will be the first support level. 28.80 and 28.50 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.
Gold Extends Gains as Trump’s Tariff Plans Fuel Market AnxietyGold trades around $2,765 per ounce, extending its recovery as US tariff uncertainty increases safe-haven demand.
Trump announced tariffs on computer chips, pharmaceuticals, and steel, while the White House confirmed plans for Canada and Mexico tariffs on February 1, with China also under consideration.
Investors now await the Fed’s policy meeting, where rates are expected to remain unchanged. Higher rates typically weigh on gold, while markets also watch for the Fed’s response to Trump’s calls for rate cuts.
Technically, the first resistance level will be 2790 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 2800 and 2820 consequently. On the downside, 2730 will be the first support level. 2660 and 2630 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.
Silver- Bulls need 30.50 breakAs I mentioned in my previous posts, I’m bullish on OANDA:XAGUSD and expect a rise to $32.
However, the price action lately has been choppy and constrained in a range between $31 and around $30.
The good thing is that bulls have defended the $30 zone well so far. At the time of writing, silver is trading just under the $30.50 median of the range. A break above this level should help clarify things and open the door to $31, with potential acceleration toward my $32 target.
I’ll remain bullish as long as the price stays above $30 on a daily close basis.