GOLD --> Correction Before Potential Further DeclineOANDA:XAUUSD transitioning to a Correction Phase After Last Week's Economic Data. Market participants are generally confirming the bearish nature after returning to the channel.
The market is broadly prepared for a 25% rate cut, but traders seem cautious about hints regarding the Fed's stance: whether the Fed will cut interest rates, shift to a wait-and-see approach, or imply a rate hike based on last week's economic data. Traders are eagerly awaiting the Fed's decision, which will be announced on December 18. Gold prices continue to be supported by safe-haven demand amidst ongoing geopolitical risks. Additionally, China's continued gold purchases are providing further momentum for this precious metal.
Technically, after a false breakout at the 2721 level, a deep correction is forming, which typically develops into a local downward trend. Prices are approaching the panic zone of 2615-2600. During the Asian trading session, gold maintained its earlier recovery above $2650 as buyers still held control amidst the persistently weak US dollar and sluggish US Treasury yields, with attention on key resistance levels.
Prices are heading toward the imbalance zone in the correction process. A swift approach and retest of resistance could trigger a recovery. Traders may enter the profit-taking phase before major news releases.
Best regards,
Bentradegold!
Metals
Gold: Short-Term Fluctuations, Long-Term TriumphsAs a market analyst, I observe that global gold prices currently stand at $2,647 per ounce, with February 2025 gold futures on the Comex New York exchange priced at $2,675 per ounce, reflecting a 0.03% increase from the previous day. Over the past week, gold has shown a solid 0.8% gain.
From my perspective, gold has had a remarkable year, and while it is now undergoing a phase of correction, I firmly believe this pullback will not last long. My analysis suggests that gold prices will rise further in the coming months. This outlook is supported by several key factors, including loose monetary policies, strong central bank buying activity, and growing demand for safe-haven assets, all of which are likely to drive gold to new record highs this year.
I’m also closely following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after each meeting, as these are crucial for shaping investor expectations for 2025. Inflation remains a pressing issue, still falling short of the Fed’s 2% target. According to Nicky Shiels, a metals strategist at MKS PAMP SA, gold prices could reach $2,500 per ounce, or even as high as $3,000 per ounce, depending on how effectively the Fed manages inflation.
In the short term, my projection is that gold will trade within a range of $2,647 to $2,760 per ounce. For the longer term, I align with Goldman Sachs' forecast that gold could achieve $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025. This aligns with the broader trends I’m observing, where persistent economic uncertainties and evolving monetary policies continue to shape a favorable environment for gold.
GOLD → The FED Rate Decision Ahead: What Should You Do?Dear Traders,
Gold (XAUUSD) has made a notable move, successfully testing the strong support level at 2633 before traders shifted into buying mode. As a result, the price broke above 2643, sparking new optimism as upcoming discussions around potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (FED) take center stage.
Currently, there is a 93% probability that the FED will cut rates by 25 basis points. However, the overarching theme is the FED's stance for the future. Hawkish hints regarding 2025 could influence the rate-cutting trajectory, an aspect the market has only partially priced in.
This means any indication of a smaller rate cut could fuel strength for the U.S. dollar. Conversely, a deeper cut could act as a bullish catalyst for gold. The spotlight is firmly on FED Chair Jerome Powell's comments, as they will provide crucial insights into the economic outlook for 2024 amidst the backdrop of Trump-era policies that continue to play a pivotal role.
That said, downside risks for gold remain elevated, particularly if the FED maintains a hawkish stance in the current climate.
Technical Analysis: At the moment, gold prices are consolidating within the range of 2658 - 2633, with a breakout in either direction likely to bring about a strong momentum-driven move. The market is complex and highly volatile right now, which is why traders are advised to hold off on entering positions before the event. Waiting for volatility to subside can offer better clarity on market direction and safer opportunities.
Final Advice: Patience is key in such turbulent times. Avoid getting swayed by short-term noise and focus on acting only after a clear trend emerges following the major event.
Gold - Prepare For A Devastating Drop!Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) will create a massive correction:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Gold rallied more than +70% over the past couple of months, basically without showing any real correction. Therefore it is no surprise that after retesting the channel resistance, Gold is now showing some weakness. It is quite likely that this is just the beginning of a significant drop.
Levels to watch: $2.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
TBT- Look Out for Exploding RatesThe Federal Reserve's aggressive 50 basis point rate cut despite headline inflation numbers coming in mixed resulted in an immediate reaction from the longer term bond yields. With no hope of moderating national debt numbers, no matter which party prevails next month, the consensus seems to be much higher long term rates. Accelerating oil prices and nervousness over the Middle East concerns may seal the deal. With the US Strategic Oil Reserves drained over recent years, a supply shock could boost oil prices dramatically.
Higher rates may also push gold and silver prices down temporarily, such moves would be an opportunity to further accumulate as dollar destruction is inevitable. While the administration hypes lower inflation numbers, moves in base metal stocks in addition to rising longer term interest rates certainly tell a much different story.
Silver XAG/USD Bearish FlagThe XAG/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 30.11
2nd Support – 29.86
Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
Gold Futures Breakdown: Bearish Momentum ConfirmedGold Futures on the 30-minute chart have confirmed a strong bearish trend after breaking below key support levels. The price failed to hold near the Zone Identifier levels (2,655.9) and experienced a sharp decline following two consecutive sell signals. The breakdown below the moving average further strengthens the bearish outlook. Traders could look for short opportunities on pullbacks, targeting the next support zone near 2,600 while managing risk with stops above 2,660. This setup highlights significant selling momentum and a potential continuation of the downtrend.
XauUsd- New leg down towards 2610 support?In my Friday analysis, I highlighted that while the 2660-2665 zone is a technical support, it is too obvious and very likely to fall.
This prediction came true as the week closed with Gold trading below this level, forming a strongly bearish daily candle.
Additionally, a Pin Bar from the 2700+ resistance zone appeared on the weekly chart, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
During the Asian session last night, the price tested the ascending trendline, and as of now, Gold is trading at 2656, hinting at a potential rebound following the 800-pip drop from its recent peak.
Looking ahead, if a deeper rebound occurs, the 2680 zone will be a key level for bears to monitor. This area presents an ideal shorting opportunity given its favorable risk-to-reward setup.
At the moment, I’m out of the market, waiting to sell into signs of weakness, with 2610 support as my target.
USOIL Best Level to Short/Hold 10% swing trade setup🔸Hey guys, today let's review the 2 hour chart for US oil . Any upside is
limited by strong overhead resistances, currently trading near range highs
so overall risk/reward shifting in bears favor.
🔸Strong resistances will cap upside at 72.00 usd / 72.50 usd. right now
locked in tight trading range, however expecting final pump to trigger overhead stop losses before reversal and subsequent sell off event.
🔸Recommended strategy for BEARS: wait for the final pump before short selling from strong overhead resistances at 72.00 and 72.50 SL fixes at 74.00 usd, TP1 bears is 68 usd TP2 bears is 66 usd. swing trade setup, patience required. good luck!
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Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
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Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
XAUUSD: Channel Up bottom buy opportunity.XAUUSD is marginally bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 43.110, MACD = -4.500, ADX = 23.016) as it is trading under the 1D MA50 and is approaching the 1D MA100. That was the trendline that contained the correction on November 14th at the bottom of the 8 month Channel Up and delivered a strong rebound. So far it seems that Gold is replicating the April-June accumulation phase. As long as the 1D MA100 holds again, we will be bullish, aiming for a strong rebound to the 2.0 Fibonacci level (TP = 2,825).
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Gold can do a correction before ascending furtherAs you can see, the price is within a bearish pennant pattern, and if this pattern breaks, the price could drop significantly. Additionally, we have a bearish divergence, which strengthens this signal. In the short term, I think gold is forming an ascending wedge, which, once completed, could lead to substantial growth.
Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Same as yesterday we are still playing within the retracement range and consolidating before FOMC.
2628 weighted level is still holding support and remains open and failure to lock below with ema5 will see a bounce from this level. However, EMA5 cross and lock below this level and we are likely to see the swing range open.
We have FOMC release in 45 minutes so need to keep this in mind for the non organic movement that will need to settle down for the levels to start respecting.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2666
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2666 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2682
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2682 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2697
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2697 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2719
BEARISH TARGETS
2645 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2645 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2628
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2628 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2606 - 2586
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
SILVER Will Explode! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
SILVER looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 30.206 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
My Stop Loss - 28.814
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 30.873
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)Gold buyers are looking very weak towards the bottom part of this 'Flat Correction' channel. We've already seen a melt off of 950 PIPS since we got a Wave 2 rejection at $2,725.
This impulse move would count as 'Minor Wave 1' of the 'Major Wave 3' downwards trend. Any consolidation we see will be 'Minor Wave 2' correction. YOU WANT TO ENTER SELL POSITIONS on these wave 2 corrections, if you haven't already!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-18 : Gap Up LowerPay attention to the SPDR Sectors and how they appear to be moving downward (potentially rolling into a topping pattern).
I believe the US markets may roll into a topping pattern before the January inauguration. President Biden could throw a bunch of curveballs at the US before he ends his term.
I urge traders to stay agile and protect assets. We'll have lots of time to deploy our capital after the Inauguration event.
With only a week before Christmas, I urge everyone to start trading much smaller positions and prepare for a very light trading week through Christmas.
Remember, the markets typically begin to move more aggressively after January 7-10.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
GOLD LONG UNTIL 2033Throughout history, gold has been recognized as a reliable store of value. It doesn't corrode, tarnish, or decay over time, making it an enduring asset. This stability makes gold an attractive option for preserving wealth across generations.
Hedge Against Inflation:
Gold has often been considered a hedge against inflation. When inflation erodes the purchasing power of fiat currencies, the value of gold tends to rise. Investors often turn to gold as a way to protect their wealth from the negative effects of inflation.
Portfolio Diversification:
Including gold in an investment portfolio can contribute to diversification. Its value tends to move differently than stocks and bonds, which can help reduce overall portfolio risk. Many investors view gold as a "safe haven" asset during times of economic uncertainty.
Global Acceptance:
Gold is universally recognized and accepted as a form of payment or exchange. Its value is understood across cultures and nations, making it a global medium of exchange. This acceptance can contribute to the stability and reliability of a gold-backed currency.
XAUUSD - gold waiting for the Federal Reserve meeting!Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1H time frame and is trading in its medium-term bearish channel. In the authentic failure of the support area, we can see the continuation of the gold decline and the demand zone. Within the zone of demand, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. If the resistance range is broken, you can sell in the supply zone.
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting is scheduled for today. According to a recent report by Crédit Agricole, it is expected that during the December meeting, the interest rate will be reduced by 0.25%, bringing it to a range of 4.25-4.50%.
While this rate cut has largely been priced into the market, the Fed’s monetary statement may carry a hawkish tone. It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will indicate slower rate cuts in 2025 due to resilient economic conditions and persistent inflation. Crédit Agricole predicts that Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, will likely hint at pausing rate cuts early in 2025.
Additionally, recent employment and inflation data from November suggest that the Fed is in a position to implement this rate cut.
However, the risks associated with persistent inflation indicate that the rate-cutting cycle will progress more gradually. Crédit Agricole estimates that interest rate projections for 2025 could be revised to 3.625% and for 2026 to 3.125%. These figures represent reductions of 0.75% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, showing smaller decreases compared to earlier forecasts.
According to the Financial Times, Israeli negotiators have met with mediators in Doha to discuss a ceasefire with Hamas and the release of hostages from Gaza. These talks are taking place ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration in January. Both Israeli and U.S. officials remain cautiously optimistic about reaching an agreement, though disagreements over key details persist.
The Israeli negotiating team arrived in Qatar on Monday, focusing on resolving major points of contention. It is expected that both sides will respond to a recent mediator proposal, which includes a six-to-eight-week ceasefire and the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.
These discussions have intensified following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections. Steven Witkoff, Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, has met with Benjamin Netanyahu and Qatar’s Prime Minister to advance the agreement.
Despite progress, significant challenges remain, including disagreements over the number of hostages to be freed and the presence of Israeli forces in Gaza. While Hamas has softened its stance somewhat, substantial differences still exist.
UBS, in its recent report, has projected that gold prices will reach $2,900 per ounce by the end of 2025. A key factor highlighted by UBS is the continued demand for gold from central banks, driven by the declining value of the dollar and diversification of reserves. UBS expects central bank gold purchases to remain strong throughout 2025, supporting elevated gold prices.
Moreover, investor demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical and policy uncertainties will play a significant role in maintaining high gold prices. UBS points to ongoing concerns about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle Eastern tensions, and uncertain fiscal and trade policies under the incoming administration of Donald Trump. These factors could boost investment in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Lower interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar are additional factors that could drive gold prices higher. UBS predicts that interest rate cuts will continue and the dollar will weaken further, which will bolster demand for gold.
In addition to gold, UBS has identified opportunities in copper and other transition metals. Global investments in power generation, energy storage, and electric transportation are expected to serve as long-term drivers of demand for these metals.
GOLD → Ahead is the Fed and the rate decision. What to do?FX:XAUUSD tested strong support on Tuesday at 2633 before traders moved into a buying phase, hoping a possible rate cut would support their intentions
There is a 93% probability that the Fed may cut interest rates by 0.25%. But the thing to pay attention to here is the general backdrop - the Fed's stance. Hawkish hints about 2025 could have a much bigger impact than a rate cut, which is partially already factored in by the market.
Any hint of fewer rate cuts next year could be a growth driver for the dollar. Powell's comments play an important role in assessing the situation for next year against the backdrop of Trump's policies
Downside risks for gold are quite high due to the controversial situation in favor of the Fed's hawkish stance.
Technically, the emphasis is on the local channel. A price exit beyond 2658 or 2633 will be accompanied by a strong impulse.
Resistance levels: 2658, 2675
Support levels: 2645, 2633, 2620
The situation is very controversial and complicated, that's why several directions relative to the key zones are indicated on the chart.
Everything depends not only on the actual rate numbers, but also on the Fed comments, namely we are interested in the tone and stance for next year. Recommendation - skip trading before the event and wait until volatility decreases to be able to adequately perceive the market position
Regards R. Linda!