META Reversal Incoming (1D)META Daily
Price Chart
META has been in a relatively straight uptrend since bottoming out in November of 2022 but has recently just touched a level of high resistance with increased selling volume. This rally has come with the three gaps theory (Highlighted White) beginning with the breakaway gap in February 2022 and ending with the exhaustion gap back in July; both verified with increased volume. Following this theory the first sign of a reversal is the exhaustion gap being filled, which has just happened, however it's not a definitive sign. This is accompanied by another small break in the major trend line (Yellow Solid) and the first close below the 26-day EMA on 8/11 since the rally started. The EMA's are beginning to curve down (12-day) or flatten out (26-day and 50-day), so if we do get a 26-day / 50-day cross the targets below (Light Green Boxes) will cine into play.
Relative Strength Indicator
Most notably on the RSI is the recent bearish divergence (Aqua Solid), but this also occurred in the months prior and did not break down, why? Price action never broke below even the 12-day EMA and the RSI's second peak was above the 70 level while remaining elevated afterwards (Highlighted Aqua) indicating the strength of the trend; the higher the RSI the stronger the trend. The most recent bearish divergence saw the second peak of the RSI top out just below the 70 line and move lower to touch the 50 line; so do we break down? A bounce is definitely possible, which would also most likely push the price action to form a head and shoulders here, however this is the longest time in the history of META that RSI has remained above the 50; After checking, the only time it comes close is when multiple spikes below the 50 are present. The argument here is for a break below the 50 and strengthening the chance of a change in direction.
On Balance Volume
OBV has been in a upwards channel since March and has offset the prior bearish RSI divergence with using it's peak as support (Aqua Solid), which has just occurred again in the past several days. These small support levels also accompany a new a high made back in July, but has since fallen below it. If it does push higher it's technically in a "price discovery" environment, but with the factors above taken into consideration a signal of a reversal should be imminent; target supports (Light Green Boxes) are outlined below if this happens.
TDLR;
Why read the book when you can Google the sparknotes amirite? Seems Legit. Anyway, price action has completed a third gap (exhaustion) and has pushed lower to fill it (not a reversal conformation). EMA's are beginning to curve down or even out and the price has it's first close below the 26-day (on 8/11) since the rally began in Feb 2022. RSI has formed a another bearish divergence after previously failing to abide by the laws of bearish divergence; we swear it's going to work this time. It's also notable that this is longest length of time that the RSI has remained above the 50 level; like, not even a spike down, deng. OBV on the other hand is chugging along in it's channel like nothing is wrong using previous peaks as supports and has even made a new high.
What Seems Legit?
A reversal soon, if not from the most recent bearish divergence then possibly from a head and shoulders pattern. Basically looking for everything to break down at the same time, but a small is possible since the indicators are a bit mixed. The price is wrong Bob, come on down.
Chart Key
Yellow Solid = Major Trend Line
Red Solid = Major Support or Resistance
Aqua Solid = Divergences
Red Box = Resistance
Green Boxes = Supports / Target Areas
White Highlighter = Gaps
Aqua Highlighter = RSI divergence post peak comparison
