USD/MXN breakout confirmed, upside momentum on the rise. LONG.Hello traders,
finally - after losing a few £££ while trying this long trade - this pair is giving me
some hope that there is scope for a long trade after all...
Went long at: 21.0411 with 1M contract; fixed-amount trailing stop (10-step) is currently at 20.8034 and
the take profit is at 22.000, making the potential loss about 1/4 of the potential profit.
Good luck to us all!
Francesco aka Forexistential
Mexicanpeso
USD MXN BUY (US DOLLAR - MEXICAN PESO)Hi there. Price is forming a reversal pattern to change its direction.
These are the fundamental reasons for a possible USD/MXN bullish scenario:
Sentiment shifts:
Bullish scenario:
A breakdown in US stimulus talks and a possible towards a government shutdown; FDA rejecting or postponing the approval of the Pfizer vaccine; a breakdown in Brexit talks with no deal by EU summit.
In this scenario we would expect to see downside in equities across the board, with US equities expected to fall more if we see US stimulus talks break down and more downside for EU equities if we see Brexit talks collapse and upside in the dollar across the board.
Strong equity sell offs are usually accompanied with some support for the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency and with its safe haven status as well as Japanese yen and Swiss franc .
USDMXN long update [sorry, got cut off at the end of the video!]Hello traders,
topics covered today:
- USDMXN starting to make the right noises picking up from a major low, after retracing nearly all of the pandemic upswing;
- MXN futures volume showing strong selling today, with volume consistent and confirming the inverse move over in USDMXN spot;
- WTI Crude Oil futures, one of the Mexican Peso's drivers, is stuck in a well-defined range with fading ATR and ineffective responsiveness to volume;
- MSCI Mexico ETF iShares is showing strong selling today, again a sign confirming the USD/MXN uptick.
I was responding a few days ago to a question from a follower on here who asked whether USDMXN would get to 19,500; I said no, or not by the end of the year,
and indeed we seem to have bottomed out in the 19.750 region. We shall have to see what happens next, of course, but I continue to hold long, even though
my demo trade is now in drawdown by a fair bit - my timing was a tad early for the turn. If I were to do this trade again, I would have waited a bit longer. Now it
is a case of staying cool and manage the trade. Should it start going lower than the full retracement of the pandemic swing, then I would surely bail out.
One more thing: my video cut me off at the end because I was unaware of a time limit on TradingView videos! I apologise and I will bear this in mind for the next
video.
I have been off for a few days as I had my CMT Level 1 exam postponed from 3rd December, due to some exam software glitch, so I am not really able to do much
else but try revising after working etc. until the next exam date comes. I am hoping to have time off for Christmas! I am also trying to progress how I can get some help
with testing my general trading approach in a quantifiable way, so trying to progress various project ideas for my trading future has occupied my mind a lot.
Thanks for watching but most of all I hope you can keep me right with your comments and that some of this stuff is useful in some way.
Take care
Stay safe
Francesco (FreeFX)
MXN/JPY - Long Buy The Mexican Peso is gaining strength against the Yen as a recovery in global growth in 2021, reduces the demand for the safe-haven Yen and increases the demand for the Mexican peso.
We look at why the Japanese Yen is a safe haven currency of choice, alongside Interest rate differentials that will play a key rol in the outlook for gains in the peso.
I give examples of entry price, stop loss using one-month ATR and take profit targets.
Short on Bitcoin, plus updated on EURTRY and USDMXN longs (DEMO)Hello traders,
thanks for watching/liking/commenting!
Today I am looking at my BTC/USD short (entered on Tuesday and in the money)
and also giving an updated on my EUR/TRY long (in the money) and
USD/MXN (in drawdown but improving).
Key video points:
- discuss my profit targets on the three trades;
- discuss the CC (correlation coefficient) between Bitcoin and USD/MXN;
- discuss price/RSI divergence in USD/MXN.
Take care, happy trading and
leave comments (if you have any).
Cheers
Francesco
USD_MXN BREAKOUT LONG|TRADING PLAN
USD_MXN BROKE OUT OF RESISTANCE.
LONG ON PULLBACK
(1) The pair is generally in the downtrend
(2) But a support formed
(3) Together with breakout, its a long
(4) A retracement of a strong downward movement on higher timeframe
___________________________________________
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EURMXN - BREAK OUT!It's not a pair that I would usually trade, but it's an opportunity!
I like this pair a lot, been keeping an eye on it a lot. Now, it could break either way - Above high ends of 25 areas we could get a break out and could take the pull back trade up to the next resistance. However, if it breaks to the lower ends, below that key trend-line up and if you were to put 200 EMA as well is there as well then bears are back in control and take the next support as your profit area.
Great clean chart!
Remember: it's just trade idea, not a recommendation
ridethepig | USDMXN Market Commentary 2020.07.19Ok let's get started with the next round of important chart packs and fundamental updates
📍 On the fundamental side in USDMXN - as strange as it sounds all eyes are on the other side of the Atlantic. Once again politics in Europe is getting in the way, with discussions on the recovery fund coming to a close this weekend and looking like we are going to see this delayed till September with one more round of sabre rattling from the frugal four. With Covid still in play, any risks to more free money will add to a continuation of worries and anxiety. This can cap the highs in EURUSD for those tracking the flows:
We cleared the first macro target on time; although any push higher will be difficult without the official ✅ from the EC. Without that, risk is broadly exposed and the only way to defend against this in USDMXN is by sacrificing the MXN. Buyers have held the 61.8% after a hard battle; see the end of the previous chapter, from last year.
📌 Manoeuvring in these waters is difficult even for the most experienced speculators.
This position from the Technical game. The cramped sellers is glaring weakness here. And buyers should be considered as ready also. But buyer's own weakness on the soft horizontal resistance line should also be considered as a pivot also. A certain amount of restraint can be expected, although the space is there now to operate the impulsive wave. There are going to be plenty of chances for us to open up the H4 charts for those wanting to position for the micro flows, as well as those more passive traders waiting to take advantage of the momentum.
As usual thanks all for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
MEXICAN PESO STRUCTURE LONG|
USDMXN is in the downtrend and is currently trading in a small triangle.
TRADING PLAN:
Long now from the triangle support. Great risk reward and 50% probability.
I trade longs ONLY on such pairs due to the expensive interest rate spread, which in the case of being long peso, is working in your favor.
3 targets correspond with the local levels, SL below the support.
Thank you for reading, support me with the like and subscribe if you like my work.
Have a nice day!
USDMXNUpdate: Mexican peso uo for a 23 retest?As Mexico sees further economic problems in the current government the price of the peso weekening against the dollar. In the short term I can see a retest of a broken ground and trend line of abour 23 before seeing more downside and fullfilling g 78.6 for fibbonacci in confluence with a longer Trend. in a higher time frame. Potentially peeking at 30 by the end of the year.
Perfect short EUR/MXNDownwards trendline, rejected at the 50 day moving average on the daily chart, the price is also at the 0.382 FB retracement point from the price high set 6 april to the price low 3 june. Looking at the broader picture it can consolidate around the 0.5 fib retracement point set in february to the april high before seeing more downside. EU countries are highly dependent on tourism while the MXN is very much tied to oil prices, seeing as oil is on the rise and tourism isn't going to boom anytime soon, I will be bullish on the Mexican peso.
USDMXN Pattern like the 2008 crisis. Opportunity for +15% profitThe pair made a strong Parabolic Rise in March pushing the 1D chart to its limits. Now technicals have found a normal balance (RSI = 58.931, MACD = 0.972, ADX = 49.001) as the price is trading on a range. This is similar to the 2008 trading pattern of the Mortgage Crisis, when after a Parabolic Rise, USDMXN entered a range (was an Ascending Triangle then) before a new Top.
So far it appears the the COVID pandemic is repeating the same psychological patterns of the 2008 Mortgage Crisis. QE and stock market fear are the key factors. If USDMXN repeats the whole sequence then we can expect the next Top to be roughly +9% from the current one which makes for a $28.00 target. That is roughly a +15% profit opportunity from the current levels.
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