USD/MXN possible shorting opportunities plain and simple chart art, looks like price has reached the top of a strong weekly trend line and showing signs that bears are slowly taking over. Possibly going to reach low prices of 19.30 - 19.16 area
Mexicanpeso
Tracking current levels like a hawk... => What is in play here?
=> To put it simply we are tracking two scenarios... the market is currently trading against strong resistance and we need to get above this area to avoid it becoming a very large triangle.
=> If we look at the recovery since August, we can see that this move has been impulsive and increases the odds for the break to the topside.
=> The only levels in play to track here are 20.92-21.03 which are the June highs. We see potential for this to extend as high as 21.4x and therefore any pullback towards 20.0x should be viewed as corrective.
=> For bears, they need to break 19.833 to question that we have already put in the highs of the year and decade.
=> In our books, there is opportunity in adding exposure on the upside towards 21.0x and eventually 21.4x.
=> Stops can be held tightly below 19.80x as a break below here will reshuffle the cards.
=> Best of luck to those already in live or looking to build positions here.
USDMXN BUY (US DOLLAR – MEXICAN PESO)Hi there. Price is forming a continuation pattern to the upside. Wait for the price to hit the bottom of the pattern and watch strong price action for buy.
Targets to watch in USD/MXN This a trend analysis on USD/MXN.
Our first indicator on an uptrend comes from the golden cross on October 26, 50 MA crossed the 100 MA. Last two times it happened we saw important increases which should mean midterm profit.
Both the stochastic and RSI are pointing up, but buyers are getting tired, so my entry point should be between 19.43-19.83 with a definitive support at the 0.382 level, do not buy if it goes below this level as this may indicate a trend reversal.
The profit targets are also important as I believe we might have a definitive rejection at the 1 line so plan your locking of profits accordingly.
Also and pretty important, the new Mexican president is being sweared in on December 1st, 2018. Being that this individual is a very controversial person, we might see an important USD take over the MXN which might trigger higher levels of profit above the 20.80 price. Be watchful.
Please, please, please comminity, can I have some feedback on this analysis? I believe that there will be a hell ton of money to make if you open a position and hold it till a bit after December 1st.
Mexican peso back to green.The Mexican peso seems to be recovering and although it is important to see how it reacts to the supports, everything indicates that it will remain positive until the end of December.
It is important that I keep an eye on the news and reactions to the new president, but in general the analysis gives enough information to be reliable.
Follow you own plan.
Best wishes all.
The 19.70 fight. Our beloved Mexican peso is going through a difficult moment, but he has a chance to fight. The uptrend has a very complicated zone ahead, and the time window begins to close.
To achieve the level and close the movement around 19.70, it is necessary a violent movement that at this point looks complicated, unlikely but not impossible.
From my point of view, it is very important to see how the candle of October 19 develops and how it relates to the R & S.
I expected this movement at the beginning of October and it did not happen. The pair lost its level and remained in the side range, the mexican peso is a tough fighter.
Follow your own plan.
Best wishes all..
Mexican Peso October resistance. Important resistance at the beginning of October. The review shows that we could have two likely targets, both quite aggressive in my opinion.
It is important to observe how it responds to the critical area and to remain attentive to its development.
Follow your own plan
Best wishes to all...
MXNUSD Mexican peso nice set-up for short positionMexican peso is bearish for the last year. I pointed out most important places.
- exact 50% of previous wave
- H&S formation followed by recent trend
- pair is trading below 200 ema on Daily CHart
- GAP support/resistance area is fairly respected by market
plus bonus which tells me that it is rather good entry Mexican interests rates which are very high in comparison to other countries world wide, of maybe except Turkey:)
Money tend to favor currency which has highest interests rates I believe it is called carry trading.
R/R ratio is reasonable well above 2 with low risk.
I will update it if market will tell otherwise or if I will close position before reaching TP.
Riding the NAFTA Flows=> The recent chest beating from the US forcing Mexico into a "new" NAFTA caused some temporary optimism. However, we see nothing new and mostly the lack of options within EM has been priced in with regards to risks and mid term investment narratives.
=> Combined with our broad view of EM weakness across the board we see capital flight to safety as a sensible and necessary play here.
=> GL
Storm clouds gathering...=> Markets are still awaiting more details on NAFTA from the Canada front whilst the knife is already being stuck into the bent knee of Mexico.
=> Here we have a minor update to our chart with the lows still managing to hold for now there is nothing to see or do here...
=> Expecting USD to catch a strong bid as the Peso continues to weaken in the weeks ahead. Any dips towards 18.62x are competitive for the mid-term.
=> Good luck all trading this one
A bad month for the Peso?There is enough information to push this pair, the critical area shows an important cluster of resistance near September 20. As always this is just a part of the information that should be compared and taken into account with many other variables.
Best wishes to all.
Hogs and pesosIn this screencast I focus on 'lean hogs' and the Mexican Peso v Sterling. The core issue is the ranging pattern on the daily time frame (over the periods I'm looking at).
In general these two instruments are highly volatile and risky. However, the pattern creates expectations (not predictions).
In other posts I pointed out that certain instruments have a certain personality to them. They behave differently in their volatility compared to others.
One other that I did not put in the video is CADNOK on the daily or weekly time frame.
I'm not saying that everybody should trade these instruments. They are certainly not for everybody because the sort of stop losses required on entering on these are very high indeed. So are the potential gains.
Extreme stalking, timing and patience are required with these ultra-volatile charts.
Success in the markets also involves finding and exploiting instruments that have their own particular patterns.
Go forth and explore. :) :)
Channel Down on 1D. Short.USDMXN is aiming lower as it extends the 1D Channel Down formation (RSI = 31.723, MACD = -0.292, Highs/Lows = -0.1361, B/BP = -0.3496). This is part of a larger 1W Head and Shoulder's pattern that should later trade sideways on its neckline. For now we are shorting with TP = 18.16975.
EXOTICS $$$ HEADS UP FOR MXN PESO?Entering long here - will buy more if we see a further downside action $$$
Targeting higher highs within weeks - eyes at 22 MXN $$$
Mexican peso trend and "real price" speculation
Hello everyone, I'm a fledgling trader and this is my first thought/idea share in here.
Right now I believe that the Mexican peso is going lower as the current political state of Mexico takes away some of the FUD as the new president-elect has been talking about developing the country's international relations and putting a somewhat stop on some of the radicalism that he preached before.
If we change to the by week chart we can see that the peso may stay oscillating between 18.18 and 19.17 as it would reflect the actual Mexican economy state instead of some of the FUD surrounding the country.
Usd/Mex updateUmex made a small 1 hr ending diagonal. Whether this is the bigger drop, I cannot know for sure (refer to last post or watch my last live stream). We can just get a small wave 4 and one more push, possibly 38% or it starts working down.
needs confirmationhi all
waiting for breakout and targets will be the supports and resistance as shown
Siguiente parada: 26 pesosLos osos pelean con fuerza, pero los toros también hacen lo suyo y parece que están venciendo. El hecho de que el precio haya rebotado un par de veces en el soporte de los 22 pesos da razones para pensar en que un rally alcista está por iniciar.
En la gráfica de 1 hora, utilizando el indicador ADX, se puede notar una creciente fuerza en la tendencia alcista, algo que parece reforzarse con los niveles de volumen, que siguen siendo bajos, son mayores en relación a días anteriores.
La tendencia alcista debería encontrar su primera resistencia en la zona de los 26 pesos en las próximas horas, para posteriormente retroceder a la zona de los 23-24 pesos.
De continuar la tendencia, el precio encontraría una fuerte resistencia en los 30 pesos, algo que podría ocurrir en los próximos días.
Estrategia:
tomar como referencia las ondas de Elliot para realizar entradas y salidas. www.tradingview.com
- Esto es sólo una idea y no representa ninguna sugerencia de inversión o trading-
Capitalism or socialism for Mexico in 150 daysMexican elections will be held on 1st July and candidate Lopez Obrador is the front runner.
According to Lopez Obrador:
"Venezuelan democracy is better than the Mexican one."
"We will revert PEMEX privatization. Oil belongs to the people."
It is unknown if Lopez Obrador would convert Mexico in the next Venezuela or not, but he is already spooking investors .
In the best scenario (blue star) USD/MXN could find support at ~17.4. In the worst scenario (red star) USD/MXN would increase and may find resistance at ~22.
