Keep CALM And Follow Your PLAN - 05/26/20 RECAPHi traders,
when we are evaluating our sessions, it's critical to recognize OUR mistakes and EXTERNAL events. That's why although I ended up in a minor loss today, I am pretty happy with the result.
My NEM trade "worked", but only after the institutional traders re-tested the opening prices which meant my SL was hit. Yes, losing money sucks, but seeing the idea eventually go along your intention is far better than screwing up your plan and losing because of it.
Trades:
1) NEM - SHORT @60.93, -1.05%
2) PLAY - LONG @13.26, -1%
3) MGM - LONG @17.22, +1.35%
*In my ID trades, I risk 1% of the account per trade and go for 2% (2:1 RRR ). Sometimes I adapt a little bit as you can see in the trades' description.*
Total PnL for the day: -0.70%
Total PnL for the week: -0.70%
Good trades,
Tom | FINEIGHT
MGM
DKNG Scalp trade and Long term plansDraftKings Inc. operates as a digital sports entertainment and gaming company. It provides users with daily sports, sports betting, and iGaming opportunities. It is also involved the design and development of sports betting and casino gaming platform software for online and retail sportsbook, and casino gaming products.
I like this as a long term company too but we missed the opportunity to buy the dip.
Long term, i would pick some more up at $11.
Short term, there's a quick scalp opportunity
Buy at $21.90
Stoploss at $20.90
target $23.90
We got some possible bullish catalyst coming up with ufc fighting starting up again.
The Big Short are US Casino OperatorsUS Casinos stocks are about to make 2008 look like a correction. Let me explain:
US culture is not European culture, nor is it Asian culture. This is why I don't want to touch casino operators that derive most of their revenue from Macau, like Las Vegas Sands (70% of revenue is generated in Macau). Asians are comfortable wearing masks and do not have high rates of obesity, which is one of the worst things if you're infected with the COVID-19 virus.
I am American, originally from NYC. I currently live in Spain. There are major differences in how rules are followed, and how policy is established. I won't get into my opinion on how Americans don't like being told what they can and cannot do, particularly rules established by the government, but there is a huge contrast when compared to countries in Europe or Asia. I am confident masks will not be the norm anytime soon, particularly in the "red states" where US casinos established their properties.
Red states have incredibly high rates of obesity. If the virus plagues these states in waves over the next 6 - 12+ months (like experts believe it will), I think death rates will likely be higher in these regions. As death rates start rising, more local casino visitors will be a lot more careful on the type of entertainment they decide to seek out. This is the year where gambling is crossed off the entertainment list for everyone.
Could you imagine being dumb enough to be older than 60 years old and going to a casino right now to play slots? Who plays slots? THE MAJORITY OF SLOT PLAYERS ARE OLDER THAN 55 YEARS OLD (according to a study done at Harvard) & slot machine revenue accounts for approximately 50% OF ALL GAMING REVENUES ON THE LAS VEGAS STRIP and 75% of ALL REVENUE in metropolitan and regional casinos. Ask yourself this question - if you were older than 60 years old, would you risk being infected to probably lose money at the slot machines?
The economy has absolutely ZERO chance of bouncing back quickly, especially in states where technology is not their strong suit.
Let's talk about farmers for a bit. Grain prices are getting crushed. In my opinion, we are on the verge of a deflationary spiral. US producers are in trouble if prices continue to break down. We are traders. We know the prices of agricultural commodities. Look. Out. Below. I don't know what percentage of farmers are gambling at any of the properties owned by Boyd Gaming, but I do know all of their properties are in states where agricultural farming is one of the most important industries in the state. Older farmers with thin margins are not likely to be their customers.
Let's take a deeper dive into the geographic diversification of Boyd Gaming. Here are the properties they own:
Properties:
LAS VEGAS >30% obesity rate
Aliante
The Orleans
Gold Coast
Suncoast
Sam's Town
Eastside Cannery
Cannery
California
Fremont
Main Street Station
Jokers Wild
Eldorado
ILLINOIS >30% obesity rate
Par-A-Dice
INDIANA
Blue Chip
Belterra
IOWA >35% obesity rate
Diamond Jo Dubuque
Diamond Jo Worth
KANSAS >30% obesity rate
Kansas Star
LOUISIANA >35% obesity rate
Amelia Belle
Delta Downs
Evangeline Downs
Sam's Town Shreveport
Treasure Chest
MISSISSIPPI >35% obesity rate
Sam's Town Tunica
IP Biloxi
MISSOURI >35% obesity rate
Ameristar St. Charles
Ameristar Kansas City
OHIO >30% obesity rate
Belterra Park
PENNSYLVANIA >30% obesity rate
Valley Forge
Now that I've given my basic economic argument on why I think US casino operators are in danger, let's confirm that with some charts:
Finally, here is my analysis on BYD 3 years ago. I was a bull. Timing is everything.
I am a technical trader, so no matter how logical this whole story is, the foundation of my strategy rests on the price action working in my favor. Know your stops based on the charts, not the story. Till next time.
MGM - Divergence was corerct. How low will it go now?Hello Investors,
Last time I made a bold statement that probably was distasteful to read. However the divergence we looked at did work and MGM did drop, I'm happy about that turnout. I didn't make any money on the drop, but it tells me I'm in harmony with the market sentiment at the moment.
Looking at the current 200 MA (close), I think the price will gravitate towards the 200MA. I'm pondering the questions, "How low will it go before it goes back towards the 200MA?".
MGM is a CASINO, it will bounce back it just depends on locals and tourists going to the casinos. People love to gamble, if the casinos are still closed that means people can't go inside to spend money. MGM acting CEO stated that all USA MGM's were closed, Macau MGM(been there) is still open. MGM USA will stay closed until the state stay-at-home order is lifted.
"Nevada: Gov. Steve Sisolak said in a press conference on April 21 that there is no firm date when businesses will be allowed to reopen." (source: abcnews.go. com/US/list-states-stay-home-order-lifts/story?id=70317035)
I hope this was valuable. Please comment, like and follow, I would appreciate it.))
MGM RESORT. What are price gaps?This is another example of a price gap being closed by future price. I believe MGM will go back to under 10$. Does that mean you should sell everything. Absolutely not. Keep some in the trade, possibly take some out and wait for it to go lower. Or if you have more money don’t be afraid if it goes back to under 10$. But personally I’d cash some out of the trade and see how it goes. Hotels aren’t gonna reopen full business over night and many flights are still grounded. Cheers.
MGM 2 scenarios for shortMGM has 2 possible scenarios:
1- break the rising wedge right now and retest the support
2- go up in the wedge until the top of the wedge which is strong resistance at the same time and then due to some fundamentals like delay in opening Vegas or quarter reports decrease. lets observe next 4hrs candles and then we can be more confident.
Daytrading Summary 04/06/20 - 4 Trades and +2.34%!Hi traders,
Let's do a daily recap!
In my ID trades, I risk 1% of the account per trade and go for 2% (2:1 RRR)
.
Sometimes I adapt a little bit as you can see in the graphs.
I had 4 trades, 2 winners and 2 losers . If I were to point out the least interesting it would be the W short. I had literally zero emotions towards that trade. It was going to either drop dead and make some fast profit or fail, which it did. No problem, move on...
My "Italian marriage", however, was definitely EBAY. I was staring at the screen watching all the stocks (previously weaker) grow steadily, while EBAY was just stuck. In the end, however, I got paid a little extra for my troubles and ended Monday in solid green.
How was your Monday?
Please let me know if you'd enjoy this format from now on as well!
Good trades,
Tom from FINEIGHT
MGP, MGM Growth Properties LLC - Potential breakoutNYSE:MGP
After the first breakout on the first rectangle ended in stop loss in May 2019, we are waiting for a new breakout on one of the companies we follow, MGM Growth Properties LLC.
55% of the trades in which we operate end in loss between 10% and 100% of the allocated capital. We are looking for trades that profit between 300% and 500% and even more if possible.
Do you understand why our Profit Factor allows us to increase the value of our portfolio and invest more and more?
Look for clear patterns and systematically manage your stop loss and consequently the risk by letting the profits run.
Good trading at all!
Great Long Term Play for MGPNYSE:MGP
MGM Growth Properties has great potential to outperform the market. I believe that right now is a good pullback price and based on a DCF Valuation it is trading at a discount currently. $MGP is at a 6.57 Div/Yield rate and climbing. On top of the great dividend, it has shown solid Capital Appreciation and I'm looking for continuing growth. On top of this, MGP has solid intrinsic value in purchasing ground leases.
MGM Bullish gartley pattern long opportunityWhen the markets finally have some solid pull-back, there are 2 kinds of stocks that will interest me to buy:
1. Strong relative strength (like my latest MCD trade)
2. Solid buy-low set-ups
This MGM is the example of the second one.
Also, there were some interesting trading stories between me and this stock lol.
I'll be waiting for the 23.35 spot to long with about 10% stop loss.
Let's see how it goes!!
MGM - Bullish-neutral Iron CondorStock has sold off since Jan, and held the downtrend throughout 2018. Bearish momentum is slowing down, as if recovery is in the works (compare LVS idea); betting this bad boy experiences a slowdown, with price staying in the range or having a quick reversal of the downtrend.
21/22/33/34 FEB19 IRON CONDOR @ 0.25 CREDIT
General plan:
Roll if necessary & if possible mainly to reduce risk.
Target maximum profit, unless significant profit appears early.
Comment or direct message for discussion, or on other interesting ideas!
Follow for updates.
MGM struggles at historical highPrice stuck at $4.90 for a few days (close to Fib Ext 100%)
Harmonic pattern AB = CD.
MGM expects to fall back to Fib Ret 38.2% or Fib Fan 50%