Micro
eurusd longterm outlookshort term: bullish we just broke out of a bullflag: 1st target: 1.1722
midterm: neutral -> no decision yet
longterm: in my opinion there is a possibility the eur goes lower like in 1999/2000, still the market did not make a decision yet. if we are heading towards another finalcial crisis like in 2000 (tech-giant again are in bubble-terretory), this scenario is the most likely. -> needs further confirmations
ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES ($AMD) 💻 | New all time highs!?👨💻 AMD has been making advances in technology, earnings, and pure bullish price action on the whole. Despite some consolidation recently and the chance of more consolidation in the near-term, we still see upside potential for this titan of chips.
Support.
The S1 bullish S/R flip is a key support level for the bulls. Although rejection at this level could lead to "bearish" consolidation as indicated on this chart, we don't think this alone will jeopardize the uptrend. If we do go that direction, the S2 S/R flip and order block cluster should see a reaction and could present an excellent buying opportunity assuming we see continued strength in tech. Below that we have S3, which is a support of last resort.
Resistance.
The R1 orderblock and S/R flip cluster at the previous swing highs are bound to act as resistance unless the bulls can blast through it here. If breached, it then could become relevant as support. Meanwhile, the R2 bearish orderblock formed from the previous All-Time-High swing high is our next level of resistance after R1.
Summary.
AMD bulls want to see sustained momentum not only in AMD, but in tech as a whole. There is a pathway to a new ATH here, but any faltering and the odds of seeing consolidation, perhaps all the way into July 28th earnings, then becomes likely.
Resources: www.earningswhispers.com
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DOW Back To $26,200? And then Down to $10K?I have no idea how the Macro conditions would allow for a fake rally back to $26,200 but the chart says it could happen. If you take the measured move of the bull flag pole and extrapolate the break out, I get $26.2k as a target and its also really good resistance. I think eventually a $10k has to happen to be a true correction.
AMD There is still hope, but...NASDAQ:AMD stuck between the long time trendline and recently formed resistance at 42.50.
Today, the market closed at 42.30, but the price bounced multiple times during this week from mentioned above resistance, so let's see what is going to happen when the market will open tomorrow.
The trendline corresponding with a high VPVR's volume node and this is the most massive support that we saw during the last years.
You probably think "Than why short?". Well, you know yourself the situation in the world right now, and bad news was ruining any TA traders had before this recent, massive sell-off.
IMO, the price will stay in the red triangle, bouncing between the trendline and resistance until not being pushed to the low volume node choosing the path of least resistance, or, breaking the trendline and landing at the next support level between 31.50 and 29. That level shows the highest volume nodes (two in a row) on a weekly chart and likely will be impossible to break. Under worst circumstances, if the crisis will be long and support at 29-31.50 broken, the next level is around $24 and this is where I'll buy like there is no tomorrow if it will be given.
Bottom line: Don't short it with a market order just yet, but place a STOP-LOSS under the trend line and wait. New coming every day, and you don't want to wake up in ugly loss.
AUDUSD MILK LONG Quick analysis of FOREXCOM:AUDUSD 1HR chart. Here we see the pink line representing R1 (Resistance) and the Blue link representing S1 (Support). AUDUSD's structure was respecting S1 numerous times and will most likely continue to uptrend. Wait to enter when price retests S1 then reap the rewards!
WAR OF THE MULTIPLE VERSUS !!!Micro vs Macro
It's a big play right now! If the volume comes in, It could breakout very badly. But following Btc, i think that it will top max around 400 $. That's why the Macro view is for.
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Bitcoin // Week #30 // Consolidation continues (for now)Hello,
Let's start with a macro view. Beginning with the 4wk chart, we can see that a doji star has formed.
On the 2wk chart, we are nearing the end of a hanging man. Here, the Money Flow Index is overbought and heading down. The MACD is also showing signs of weakening.
Zooming in closer, on the weekly chart, we can see a bull flag formation. The bottom of the bull flag is showing us buying interest. Near these levels is where I am buying. The MFI broke below the 80 mark about 3 weeks ago and is now hovering around 56. It should be noted that during the bull run of 2017, the weekly MFI didn't break below 50 and we shouldn't expect to break below it during this run. Also, I placed a possible wick zone from $8500-$7500. Anything is possible with Bitcoin and we should always be prepared.
On the daily, we are currently printing a Breakaway candle formation. The MFI here is nearly below 40 & the MACD is also heading down.
On a micro level, we can see on the 12hr chart (also on the 4hr - not pictured) that a rising wedge has been validated. Here, I have a couple of support/buying opportunities.
Based on my macro & micro TA, it is my view that we are going to continue consolidating, while finding great day trading opportunities. Most importantly, long term buying opportunities should also be taken here. Technically and fundamentally we are in a bull market.
Market action discounts everything:
My current buying zones on the dips are within $10220 - $10000
Breaking below that we can find great buying opportunities near the bull flag support range of mid-low $9700 - low $9000
If we wick down below the bull flag, $8500 - $7500 is possible.
Please comment and like. May the force be with you.
- B
S&P New All Time Highs - Risky BuyS&P New All Time Highs - Risky Buy
The Emini and S&P 500 made a new all time high again today, leading many to believe this market is still strong. In some ways it is, but it is more important to realize it is also in a bull flag trading range. This makes it a risky place to buy up here. This is where strong bulls who bought lower will start looking to take profits, and strong bears will start looking to sell for a move down.
Why is it risky to buy now? There is only a 40% chance of a measured move up based on the height of the trading range. And the risk needed to enter now is large (below the bottom of the trading range). There is at least a 50% chance of a test down soon, back into the range. The middle of the trading range is a magnet and will likely get tested before the bull trend continues. Furthermore, if the bears are soon able to create a strong reversal bar for the large wedge, it could increase the probability to 60% for two legs down. If there is a quick and large move up in the next few weeks, it would likely act as a climax and final flag reversal, increasing the likelihood of a sell off.
Dont think just because there is no reversal yet that the market cant or wont sell off. Look at the past two sell offs from this area. They began from bull bars (Jan 18 two bar reversal), or small inconspicuous bars (Sep 18 doji to outside bear bar). But the follow through was strong and fast. Of course, this does not mean a shorter term trader cant buy and make money. Day traders can do many things investors do not or should not. But as far as a long term investment, this is simply not a safe one to buy at the current price level unless you are willing to sit through a deep pullback and scale in. And if you are - why not just wait and buy then?
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How to Trade to Win"Those who lose - trade not to lose. Those who are successful - trade to Win."
Losing Vs Winning
Most traders are more focused on not losing than they are on winning. Do you understand what this means? This means you are acting not in your best interest, but against your self. By focusing on how much you can or might lose, or on not losing, you increase the likelihood of making mistakes which ultimately lead to a losing traders equation, and a negative equity curve.
Profitable traders do not care about losing. They understand it is part of winning. They focus on winning. What is the best move in this moment? Should I get out or continue to hold based on what the market is telling me? Winning traders accept the risk totally and completely; before getting into the trade. In other words, they have already lost what is on the line. Therefore they act in their own best interest, not based on their thoughts about what they could lose, but based on what the market is telling them to do in this moment.
Other than this psychological difference, here are a few other key components on How to Trade To Win.
Defined Edge - Every trader who is making money in the market has some form of edge which he employs. Even if his edge is purely intuitive. This is extreme and rare however, and most traders have clearly defined their edge and will only trade that edge. This removes randomness. Many beginners think they are going to study the market and be able to trade the market no matter what it is doing (trade intuitively). This is simply not the case for most. The purpose of studying the market is to identify opportunities in form of an edge. An edge is a setup or context which repeats itself over time. It might occur once a day, once a week, or once a month. It does not matter. All that matters is that you only trade your clearly defined edge, and leave the randomness behind.
For more information, you can read about the edge I use in every market I trade. We also describe how you can develop your own edge, and trade it in any market.
Stop Doing, Relax Efforts - If you are losing in the market, chances are you are doing too much. Many beginners, and even experienced traders think they must be trading in order to be a successful trader. This leads to random trading, over trading, and mistakes which compound themselves. You end up digging a hole, and instead of looking for a way out, you look for a different shovel.
The harder you try to make a profit, the more you do, the more actions you make, and the more you lose. The market rewards those who are observant, disciplined, and most importantly patient. The market takes from those who try too hard, and do too much. If you dont believe me, try as hard as you can to make money, and see how you do!
By relaxing your efforts, you relax your mind. In turn relax your actions and decision making. You do not have to trade every day to be a profitable trader. It sounds paradoxical doesn't it? How can I make money trading if I dont trade? By only trading when it is appropriate like when your edge is present, you better your odds of success.
Profitable trading does not come from trading constantly. Profitable trading comes from the act of non-doing, and out of a state of emptiness. Profitable trading is effortless, it comes out of waiting for just the right moment before taking action. And then waiting some more while the market proves you right or wrong. Profitable trading is not forced; it just happens.
Active VS Passive Trading -
This is very similar to the previous topic. Active trading is a trader who is constantly in the market, trading whatever he see's or feels right. This trader is often wrong, and when he is right he makes the mistake of exiting too early due to fear. This leads to a negative traders equation as he continues to struggle to do the right thing. An Active Trader mentality is one which does not believe in "non-doing." He believes he must, and can, do something. He is afraid of missing out and is often swayed by thoughts and emotions. So he continues trading never looking back, and at the end of the month cannot figure out why his account is in the red.
A Passive Trader is the opposite. He passes on more trades than he takes. He does not care about what he misses out on. He only cares about what he takes and the actions he makes in the market. He does not force trades, he just watches the market until he knows what to do. Or he waits and waits until his edge finally sets up. He is passive in his efforts, rather than active. He does not care if he doesn't trade today, this week, or even this month. Trading is not what is important to him; winning is. He knows that profits come from sitting, waiting. Because he is willing to wait, he is peaceful. And profits continue to come into his account, effortlessly.
For more information on developing this type of mentality, see below. We also detail how to understand markets through price action, how to create, define, and employ an edge, and how to develop your traders mentality to succeed in markets.
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S&P 500 / ES / MES New All Time High Breakout or Trading Range?The S&P 500 reached a new all time high last week, leading many to believe the bull trend is still intact and the market is strong. However, this is not necessarily the case. Look at what happened the past 3 times prices reached this level - strong bulls and strong bears sold. Although the rally up from the 2400 low has contained strong buying pressure, prices are still in the developing stages of a bull flag trading range. The bears want a strong reversal down from the wedge reversal. The next reversal attempt by the bears would make a second entry for the wedge reversal (Apr 29 selloff was first attempt). The bulls want a strong breakout above the all time high and a measured move up. Most likely, there will continue to be profit taking around this level and prices will continue to go mostly sideways as a trading range forms, until there is either a strong bull breakout, or a strong bear reversal.
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Emini ReviewThe Emini reversed down from a failed breakout of the all time high, and nested wedge reversal. There are trapped bulls who bought the May 3rd high who want out. Most bulls used the new high to take profits as the market is likely to transition into a trading range over the next few months or even years. However this does not mean the bulls will not get another test of the high, eventually. But the strong bull trend is less likely to resume, and instead prices will likely remain in a large bull flag trading range, where bulls and bears buy low and sell high.
Bull gaps are starting to be filled (Mar 29), which is a sign of trading range behavior. The bulls need to keep the Mar 11 gap open to prevent the bears from gaining strength. The bulls want to form a double bottom around here or the previous swing low around 2725. If the bulls are unable to form a double bottom or higher low, the bears will likely get a test of the Jan 29 micro double bottom which is the start of the tight bull channel.
There has been some signs of buying pressure over the past two weeks or so (tails below bars, bears lacking strong closes). Yesterday closed on its low, but this was likely due to a magnet affect testing the small micro double bottom from March. However, the bears will likely get some form of a second leg down from the wedge. If the bears can prevent the bulls from reaching the May 3rd close, they will have an increased chance of a large sell off and test of the December low, and bottom of the developing trading range.
Research! Research! Research! I smell blood.I don't disagree with the notion that right now we are set up almost identical to the market in 2014. I don't disagree that we probably have a while longer before we see a bull run. But I am pretty confident we aren't going to see 2+ years of bear market and I don't think we will see a 2+ years of bull market after. I think what we are experiencing is the final days of true manipulation, the beginning days of true adoption, and a culmination of some really strong forces. The noise will continue, but the rise will be more steady. Let me explain...
Maybe we haven't hit rock bottom but with the bulls crying their eyes out and people shorting so sure of themselves, I would say that it's a pretty good time for some or all to get wrekt. Think about it. There is a moment when you can make both animals cry. The minute of reversal where it's obvious that a massive gain is coming, but hasn't yet so the shorts get liquidated because of the lack of coverage. And then there are the bulls that so badly want something to moon, but in reality it's going to be a slow steady climb.
Going back to the rate of adoption, think of the bell-curve that happens. No where in that curve is there a break. Adoption and price accelerate through about 1/3 of the total life cycle. There is however sometimes a chasm, much like the described perilous valley in the accepting of humanoid robots, that causes confusion before all of the early adopters get on board. The only thing there is to determine is how long the life of a cycle will be. In my last post I messed around with GDPs of five countries. I found at just one percent of their GDP in crypto-currency, the number is actually a little more than what the current market cap was listed at that day of 299B.
In a perfect world right now we would see enough growth through adoption that we could take profits and new money coming in would offset the profit taking. But instead let's see what a macro story can tell us. Right now there just aren't enough retail stores taking crypto to make a difference but what happens when that threshold is crossed.
1. Some one buys something with crypto.
2. Price of crypto goes up due to fiat entering a market.
3. Amount of fiat in cirrculation goes down
4. No reason to sell crypto for fiat because enough retail to sustain oneself.
5. You get paid in crypto from work.
6. You buy more stuff gradually shifting more GDP to crypto.
6. Cycle repeats.
This is what we should be striving for but due to where we are in this adoption cycle right now we are still ironing out wrinkles and people don't see a bigger picture. So Research, Research, Research! Prop up your own currency and figure out how you can make actual differences. Lastly, sniff around for the blood. Look at opposing views and see who is either scared or overly-confident. Just like bulls think the market will go up even in the short term, bears tend to think they will continue going down in the long term.
Refer to my Buddhist approach to investing for inner peace if you seek the middle ground. ;-)
Oh the agony. The lack of humanity. You betrayed us bitcoin!So for about 6 months now we have not seen exponential growth. Call it what you will. I think I will call it a "bitcoin recession." For two quarters we have not seen the kind of positive growth we have come to expect, however, compare what we have now to this time last year and you should still be a very happy camper. If you've been HODLing of course and even if you've been trading, as long as you have more coins you are in a very good position. This brings me to my first point. We tend to have a very short memory and those poor souls that bought into BTC with out doing research just didn't see that this is perfectly normal. We have already had a drawback of approximately 70% which is slightly better than the two or three worst ever.
The average cost of a bitcoin through mining, depending on country is somewhere between $531 and $26,170 so let's round and say the spread is $500 to $26000. Therefore we have a whopping grand total average of $13250. Now, if you don't think that is a baseline of where we should be I'm quite sorry. With weighted averages we might say that it's a bit lower, for instance if China is in the dominant position of mining, let's say 75%, then the average with these two numbers is quite a bit lower. If the cost in China was $500 and let's say the U.S. is $26000 then we are looking at a weighted average of $1025. Oh no, that's a dismal price for Bitcoin!
Luckily, those aren't the respective prices. It's interesting that bears have pegged a downside price at around $4,000. The cost of mining in the U.S. just happens to be about $4758. Hmmm!?!? Fascinating. The problem is that at this point we know that the average cost of mining a BTC is actually around $6500 so what will cause BTC to fall below this? For reference, this was established in the first two months of the year when the cost to profit was 1:1 ratio. I haven't seen any electric bills anywhere in the world go down. When an electric corporation finds a more efficient way of producing they hold the price stable longer, but they certainly don't drop it. Same for ASIC miners and graphics cards. Demand went up and so did the price. Even though production went up the demand was simply too high.
Here's what I'm trying to point out. The top chart shows the overall logarithmic growth of BTC and the bottom shows linear increasing bottoms since late 2017. Despite our current recession we are still growing positive. When I read other peoples views, I concentrate specifically on counter arguments because that's the only way to find something that I've missed. I have yet to read a reason for BTC to plummet.
Let's start with Fibonacci retracements. These are potential turning points or high likely-hood of reversal points both on the low and high side. They are not the reason that something rises or falls. If they were, then we would always and forever oscillate. Pennants, flags, cups, H &S, inverse H & S are indicators again, not reasons. That's why they are only correct part of the time. I want a reason on the macro or micro-level, or a well detailed mathematical explanation of why BTC is going lower.
Please keep it educational, but also please comment below.
Tech BuBBLE ? Looks Familiar YeS or NO ? This Time Different ?Look at the price action.
Nearly same man. Come on.
But when we look at the other tech stocks microsoft not like x10 price. This is more natural. Same tech shares x10 man. Come on. If something rise x10 this is bubbleeeeee.
Big rise big decline. There is something going on. -1500 dow jones sell of is the begining of the bubbbleee Bang...
BiG SHorT Coming I GUesss...
Sorry MAN. BUBBLEE.
Micron Technology, IncMicron Technology, Inc. is engaged in semiconductor systems. The Company's portfolio of memory technologies, including dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), negative-AND (NAND) Flash and NOR Flash are the basis for solid-state drives, modules, multi-chip packages and other system solutions. Its business segments include Compute and Networking Business Unit (CNBU), which includes memory products sold into compute, networking, graphics and cloud server markets; Mobile Business Unit (MBU), which includes memory products sold into smartphone, tablet and other mobile-device markets; Storage Business Unit (SBU), which includes memory products sold into enterprise, client, cloud and removable storage markets, and SBU also includes products sold to Intel through its Intel/Micron Flash Technology (IMFT) joint venture, and Embedded Business Unit (EBU), which includes memory products sold into automotive, industrial, connected home and consumer electronics markets.