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Q1 Recap and What’s AheadThe first quarter of 2025 saw significant price movements in many different asset classes. Traders saw equity indices broadly selling off with the ES contract falling near 10% from the highs while Gold continued to push higher to all time high levels. There are many factors contributing to the price movement, including a shift in the administration in the U.S., geopolitical tensions globally, and critical tariff announcements looming. There are also questions about the Fed environment and the strategy that will be implemented this year to begin cutting interest rates. Looking at the CME Fed Watch Tool today, it seems the market is pricing another rate pause for the May meeting and a near 60% chance of rate cuts coming in June. There is a large slate of economic date coming out for the rest of the week that could add great volatility to this uncertain market, including: Tariff Announcement Initial Jobless Claims Nonfarm Payroll Unemployment Rate Average Hourly Earnings This morning, traders saw the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change come in higher than expected and the markets are having a mixed reaction. President Trump will be speaking at 3:00 P.M. Central Time to introduce the tariff plan and how it will be rolled out, adding a level of clarity for the market moving forward into Q2. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CME_Group
Behind the Curtain: Macro Indicators That Move the Yen1. Introduction Japanese Yen Futures (6J), traded on the CME, offer traders a window into one of the world’s most strategically important currencies. The yen is not just Japan’s currency—it’s also a barometer for global risk appetite, a funding vehicle for the carry trade, and a defensive asset when markets turn volatile. But what truly moves Yen Futures? While many traders fixate on central bank statements and geopolitical news, machine learning tells us that economic indicators quietly—but consistently—steer price action. In this article, we apply a Random Forest Regressor to reveal the top macroeconomic indicators driving 6J Futures across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes, helping traders of all styles align their strategies with the deeper economic current. 2. Understanding Yen Futures Contracts Whether you’re trading institutional size or operating with a retail account, CME Group offers flexible exposure to the Japanese yen through two contracts: o Standard Japanese Yen Futures (6J): Contract Size: ¥12,500,000 Tick Size: 0.0000005 = $6.25 per tick Use Case: Institutional hedging, macro speculation, rate differential trading o Micro JPY/USD Futures (MJY): Contract Size: ¥1,250,000 Tick Size: 0.000001 = $1.25 per tick Use Case: Retail-sized access, position scaling, strategy testing o Margin Requirements: 6J: Approx. $3,300 per contract MJY: Approx. $330 per contract Both products offer deep liquidity and near 24-hour access. Traders use them to express views on interest rate divergence, U.S.-Japan trade dynamics, and global macro shifts—all while adjusting risk through contract size. 3. Daily Timeframe: Top Macro Catalysts Short-term movements in Yen Futures are heavily influenced by U.S. economic data and its impact on yield spreads and capital flow. Machine learning analysis ranks the following three as the most influential for daily returns: 10-Year Treasury Yield: The most sensitive indicator for the yen. Rising U.S. yields widen the U.S.-Japan rate gap, strengthening the dollar and weakening the yen. Drops in yields could create sharp yen rallies. U.S. Trade Balance: A narrowing trade deficit can support the USD via improved capital flow outlook, pressuring the yen. A wider deficit may signal weakening demand for USD, providing potential support for yen futures. Durable Goods Orders: A proxy for economic confidence and future investment. Strong orders suggest economic resilience, which tends to benefit the dollar. Weak numbers may point to a slowdown, prompting defensive yen buying. 4. Weekly Timeframe: Intermediate-Term Indicators Swing traders and macro tacticians often ride trends formed by mid-cycle economic shifts. On a weekly basis, these indicators matter most: Fed Funds Rate: As the foundation of U.S. interest rates, this policy tool steers the entire FX complex. Hawkish surprises can pressure yen futures; dovish turns could strengthen the yen as yield differentials narrow. 10-Year Treasury Yield (again): While impactful daily, the weekly trend gives traders a clearer view of long-term investor positioning and bond market sentiment. Sustained moves signal deeper macro shifts. ISM Manufacturing Employment: This labor-market-linked metric reflects production demand. A drop often precedes softening economic growth, which may boost the yen as traders reduce exposure to riskier assets. 5. Monthly Timeframe: Structural Macro Forces For position traders and macro investors, longer-term flows into the Japanese yen are shaped by broader inflationary trends, liquidity shifts, and housing demand. Machine learning surfaced the following as top monthly influences on Yen Futures: PPI: Processed Foods and Feeds: A unique upstream inflation gauge. Rising producer prices—especially in essentials like food—can increase expectations for tightening, influencing global yield differentials. For the yen, which thrives when inflation is low, surging PPI may drive USD demand and weaken the yen. M2 Money Supply: Reflects monetary liquidity. A sharp increase in M2 may spark inflation fears, sending interest rates—and the dollar—higher, pressuring the yen. Conversely, slower M2 growth can support the yen as global liquidity tightens. Housing Starts: Serves as a growth thermometer. Robust housing data suggests strong domestic demand in the U.S., favoring the dollar over the yen. Weakness in this sector may support yen strength as traders rotate defensively. 6. Trade Style Alignment with Macro Data Each indicator resonates differently depending on the trading style and timeframe: Day Traders: React to real-time changes in 10-Year Yields, Durable Goods Orders, and Trade Balance. These traders seek to capitalize on intraday volatility around economic releases that impact yield spreads and risk appetite. Swing Traders: Position around Fed Funds Rate changes, weekly shifts in Treasury yields, or deteriorating labor signals such as ISM Employment. Weekly data can establish trends that last multiple sessions, making it ideal for this style. Position Traders: Monitor PPI, M2, and Housing Starts for broader macro shifts. These traders align their exposure with long-term shifts in capital flow and inflation expectations, often holding positions for weeks or more. Whatever the style, syncing your trading plan with the data release calendar and macro backdrop can improve timing and conviction. 7. Risk Management The Japanese yen is a globally respected safe-haven currency, and its volatility often spikes during geopolitical stress or liquidity events. Risk must be managed proactively, especially in leveraged futures products. 8. Conclusion Japanese Yen Futures are a favorite among global macro traders because they reflect interest rate divergence, risk sentiment, and global liquidity flows. While headlines grab attention, data tells the real story. Stay tuned for the next installment of the "Behind the Curtain" series, where we continue uncovering what really moves the futures markets. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6J1!Education
by traddictiv
How to Track Inflation NumberHow to track inflation number? When the Fed mentions their 2% inflation target, are they referring to the commonly published CPI that we often read about, or are they referring to Core CPI or Core PCE? 10-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIACLong
by konhow
1
Behind the Curtain The Economic Pulse Behind Euro FX1. Introduction Euro FX Futures (6E), traded on the CME, offer traders exposure to the euro-dollar exchange rate with precision, liquidity, and leverage. Whether hedging European currency risk or speculating on macro shifts, Euro FX contracts remain a vital component of global currency markets. But what truly moves the euro? Beyond central bank meetings and headlines, the euro reacts sharply to macroeconomic data that signals growth, inflation, or risk appetite. Using a Random Forest Regressor, we explored how economic indicators correlate with Euro FX Futures returns across different timeframes. In this article, we uncover which metrics drive the euro daily, weekly, and monthly, offering traders a structured, data-backed approach to navigating the Euro FX landscape. 2. Understanding Euro FX Futures Contracts The CME offers two primary Euro FX Futures products: o Standard Euro FX Futures (6E): Contract Size: 125,000 € Tick Size: 0.000050 per euro = $6.25 per tick per contract Trading Hours: Nearly 24 hours, Sunday to Friday (US) o Micro Euro FX Futures (M6E): Contract Size: 12,500 € (1/10th the size of 6E) Tick Size: 0.0001 per euro = $1.25 per tick per contract Accessible to: Smaller accounts, strategy testers, and traders managing precise exposure o Margins: 6E Initial Margin: ≈ $2,600 per contract (subject to volatility) M6E Initial Margin: ≈ $260 per contract Whether trading full-size or micro contracts, Euro FX Futures offer capital-efficient access to one of the most liquid currency pairs globally. Traders benefit from leverage, scalability, and transparent pricing, with the ability to hedge or speculate on Euro FX trends across timeframes. 3. Daily Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators For day traders, short-term price action in the euro often hinges on rapidly released data that affects market sentiment and intraday flow. According to machine learning results, the top 3 daily drivers are: Housing Starts: Surging housing starts in the U.S. can signal economic strength and pressure the euro via stronger USD flows. Conversely, weaker construction activity may weaken the dollar and support the euro. Consumer Sentiment Index: A sentiment-driven metric that reflects household confidence. Optimistic consumers suggest robust consumption and a firm dollar, while pessimism may favor EUR strength on defensive rotation. Housing Price Index (HPI): Rising home prices can stoke inflation fears and central bank hawkishness, affecting yield differentials between the euro and the dollar. HPI moves often spark short-term FX volatility. 4. Weekly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Swing traders looking for trends spanning several sessions often lean on energy prices and labor data. Weekly insights from our Random Forest model show these three indicators as top drivers: WTI Crude Oil Prices: Oil prices affect global inflation and trade dynamics. Rising WTI can fuel EUR strength if it leads to USD weakness via inflation concerns or reduced real yields. Continuing Jobless Claims: An uptick in claims may suggest softening labor conditions in the U.S., potentially bullish for EUR as it implies slower Fed tightening or economic strain. Brent Crude Oil Prices: As the global benchmark, Brent’s influence on inflation and trade flows is significant. Sustained Brent rallies could create euro tailwinds through weakening dollar momentum. 5. Monthly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Position traders and institutional participants often focus on macroeconomic indicators with structural weight—those that influence monetary policy direction, capital flow, and long-term sentiment. The following three monthly indicators emerged as dominant forces shaping Euro FX Futures: Industrial Production: A cornerstone of economic output, rising industrial production reflects strong manufacturing activity. Strong U.S. numbers can support the dollar, while a slowdown may benefit the euro. Likewise, weaker European output could undermine EUR demand. Velocity of Money (M2): This metric reveals how quickly money is circulating in the economy. A rising M2 velocity suggests increased spending and inflationary pressures—potentially positive for the dollar and negative for the euro. Falling velocity signals stagnation and may shift flows into the euro as a lower-yield alternative. Initial Jobless Claims: While often viewed weekly, the monthly average could reveal structural labor market resilience. A rising trend may weaken the dollar, reinforcing EUR gains as expectations for interest rate cuts grow. 6. Strategy Alignment by Trading Style Each indicator offers unique insights depending on your approach to market participation: Day Traders: Focus on the immediacy of daily indicators like Housing Starts, Consumer Sentiment, and Housing Price Index. Swing Traders: Leverage weekly indicators like Crude Oil Prices and Continuing Claims to ride mid-term moves. Position Traders: Watch longer-term data such as Industrial Production and M2 Velocity. 7. Risk Management Currency futures provide access to high leverage and broad macro exposure. With that comes responsibility. Traders must actively manage position sizing, volatility exposure, and stop placement. Economic indicators inform price movement probabilities—not certainties—making risk protocols just as essential as trade entries. 8. Conclusion Euro FX Futures are shaped by a deep web of macroeconomic forces. From Consumer Sentiment and Oil Prices to Industrial Production and Money Velocity, each indicator tells part of the story behind Euro FX movement. Thanks to machine learning, we’ve spotlighted the most impactful data across timeframes, offering traders a framework to align their approach with the heartbeat of the market. As we continue the "Behind the Curtain" series, stay tuned for future editions uncovering the hidden economic forces behind other major futures markets. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6E1!Education
by traddictiv
Gold Above $3,000 and MoreAccording to the World Gold Council, more than 600 tons of gold — valued at around $60 billion — have been transported into vaults in New York. Why are they doing that? Since Donald Trump election in November, there is around $60 billion worth of gold that has flowed into a giant stockpile in New York. The reason why physical gold is flowing into the US is because traders are afraid Trump might put tariffs on gold. Gold Futures & Options Ticker: GC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00 Micro Gold Futures & Options Ticker: MGC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 er troy ounce = $1.00 1Ounce Gold Futures Ticker: 1OZ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 per troy ounce = $0.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
Markets Seeing Strength Over the last few weeks, traders have seen consistent selling pressure across equity markets, and today we are seeing buyers step in and the markets are moving higher. On the day, the equity indices, Gold, Silver and Crude Oil are seeing higher prices as traders saw CPI come in worse than expected and Crude Inventories came in better than expected. The NQ contract led the gains for the indices being up over 1% and Silver trading up near 1%% on the session. The CME Fed Watch Tool has been fluctuating over the past few weeks as the equity markets have been selling off, and is now pricing in a pause for the March and May meetings. To finish out the week, economic data including initial jobless claims, PPI, and Bond Auction data will be on the front of traders' minds to see if the selling will continue in equities or if buyers will be confident to step into the market. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by CME_Group
Inflation Leading Indicator Data with Agricultural Commodities Inflation leading indicator data is not derived solely from CPI numbers; more importantly, we must consider what drives these CPI numbers. By understanding this, we can stay ahead of the mass market. Looking at past trends, we can observe that CPI numbers and agricultural commodities tend to move in tandem. In this discussion, we will explore why agricultural commodities are an effective tool for projecting inflation direction and examine where these commodities may be heading. Micro Agriculture Futures: . Corn: MZC . Wheat: MZW . Soybean: MZS . Soybean Oil: MZL . Soybean Meal: MZM Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
ECONOMICS:USIRYYLong
by konhow
4
US Market Reversal Emerged? This Week's Closing is CrucialThe final trading day of February. I always take the opportunity to analyze the monthly chart closely. We saw an inverted hammer. From the cash chart, clearly, we can see the inverted hammer. Beyond that, it also appears to be a potential double top for the Nasdaq. E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options Ticker: NQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ Trading the Micro: cmegroup.com/markets/microsuite.html
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by konhow
5
US Market Reversal EmergedLast Friday marked the final trading day of February. I always take the opportunity to analyze the monthly chart closely. We saw an inverted hammer. From the cash chart, clearly, we can see the inverted hammer. Beyond that, it also appears to be a potential double top for the Nasdaq. E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options Ticker: NQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by konhow
Equity Prices Continue LowerAfter testing all time high levels in the ES contract on February 19th, equity markets have seen significant selling pressure which continued today while the precious metals saw a boost higher. One of the volatility drivers traders are seeing is coming from global tariff policies from the U.S. and many other nations adding uncertainty to the strength of these markets. Over the next few weeks, traders will learn more about the implementation of these tariffs and where the equity markets and precious metals may settle. Over the last few weeks, the CME Fed Watch Tool has also shifted, and now is pricing in a 44% chance of a rate cut at the May 7th meeting of 25 basis points, where previous expectations were to see the a pause for the May meeting. This week offers a big slate of economic data as well, including ADP Nonfarm Payroll, Initial Jobless Claims, Unemployment Data, and the Fed Monetary Policy Report. This economic data could have an effect on the Fed’s stance on the economy and their plans for rate cuts moving forward. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CME_Group
Consumer Sentiment & Stocks MarketsStock Markets Track Consumer Sentiment Closely The relationship between consumer sentiment and the stock market is evident in this observation. Historically, consumer sentiment tends to lead stock market movements, providing valuable insights into potential trends. Personally, I consider the Russell 2000 Index as a reflection of mass consumer sentiment, given that it tracks the 2,000 smallest publicly traded companies in the U.S. market. Looking at the E-Mini Russell futures, consumer sentiment peaked in December 2024, and since then, I have been monitoring the Russell and other indices along their well-supported trendlines. When the Russell started testing its trendline in January, I became cautious about its uptrend. The clean break on February 21 signaled a shift: Russell transitioned from an uptrend to a downtrend on the daily chart. Consequently, my trading strategy has shifted from buying on dips to selling on strength whenever opportunities arise. Russell is Leading Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P??? Indices tend to influence each other, and leadership often rotates. While the Nasdaq has previously led market moves, this case study suggests Russell is currently taking the lead. Technically, the overall U.S. market remains bullish as long as it holds above the primary uptrend line. A bear market is typically confirmed when the market drops 30%, and by then, it should break below all primary uptrend lines. However, waiting for that confirmation is too late—by then, the damage will be significant. The key observation is that Russell has already broken its secondary uptrend line. Will the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq follow? If so, we need to make fundamental projections. Factors like escalating tariff conflicts could worsen inflation, directly impacting the broader stock market and indices. Consumer Sentiment Still Below 80 Despite Pandemic Being Long Over Given the current macro environment, consumer sentiment is likely to remain below 80 for an extended period. Additionally, there is a downside risk if geopolitical tensions escalate. From past case studies, a consumer sentiment reading below 80 has often preceded a stock market decline. This historical pattern raises concerns about future market stability. My Trading Strategy: Cautiously Bullish • Technical Perspective: Apart from Russell, I remain bullish on other indices. • Fundamental Perspective: Market sentiment leans toward pessimism. • Conclusion: This dual outlook leads me to a cautiously bullish stance. For Russell 2000, my preferred strategy is to sell into strength, guided by a downtrend channel. Another alternative is trading Micro E-Mini Russell futures (M2K) for precision and risk management. 📈 Happy trading! Please see the following disclaimer and additional information that may be useful. E-mini Russell Futures Ticker: RTY Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Russell Futures Ticker: M2K Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • My mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:RTY1!Short
by konhow
2
Timing the Markets with Consumer SentimentBusinesses and producers around the world always cheer when U.S. consumer sentiment is in the 80 to 100 zone, as U.S. consumers play a big part in the global economic ecosystem. The United States remains the largest consumer market in the world, but since the pandemic, this index has not recovered above the 80 level. Does it mean that, there is a risks economy to enter into a recession? How can we use this index to time our investments and trades? E-mini Russell Futures Ticker: RTY Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Russell Futures Ticker: M2K Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Trading competition: www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
FRED:UMCSENTShort
by konhow
4
Leap Ahead with a Dynamic Setup: Trading with Andrew’s PitchforkThe Leap Trading Competition: A Chance to Trade Micro Euro Futures TradingView’s "The Leap" Trading Competition provides an opportunity for traders to apply their futures trading strategies in a competitive environment. Participants can trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Micro Euro Futures (M6E). This article presents a structured trade setup using Andrew’s Pitchfork, a technical tool that helps define potential trend direction and breakout levels. The setup involves two intersecting pitchforks near a key UFO support level, signaling the possibility of either an uptrend continuation or a confirmation of a new downtrend. Understanding Andrew’s Pitchfork and Market Structure Andrew’s Pitchfork is a technical analysis tool used to identify trend channels by plotting three parallel lines from a major price swing. The tool helps traders anticipate support, resistance, and breakout levels based on median lines. In this setup, two pitchforks define opposing market structures. The green pitchfork represents an uptrend, suggesting that price could continue higher. The red pitchfork represents a developing downtrend, indicating a possible reversal. The intersection of these pitchforks at a key UFO support level marks an important decision point for the market. The Dynamic Trade Setup: Long and Short Scenarios In a long trade scenario, entry is confirmed if price breaks above the Upper Median Line (UML) of the red pitchfork. The target for the trade is the Median Line (ML) of the green pitchfork, representing trend continuation. A stop loss is placed below entry at a distance that ensures a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio. In a short trade scenario, entry is confirmed if price breaks below the Lower Median Line (LML) of the green pitchfork. The target for the trade is the Median Line (ML) of the red pitchfork, confirming further downside movement. A stop loss is placed above entry at a distance that maintains a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Because the UML, LML, and ML levels change dynamically with each bar, breakout levels and targets must be adjusted accordingly. If price remains inside the pitchfork structure, the setup remains neutral until confirmation occurs. Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements Euro FX Futures (6E) details: Full contract specs: 6E Contract Specifications – CME Group Contract size: €125,000 Tick size: 0.00005 per EUR/USD ($6.25 per tick) Margin requirements depend on broker conditions and market volatility, currently around $2,600 per contract. Micro EUR/USD Futures (M6E) details: Full contract specs: M6E Contract Specifications – CME Group Contract size: €12,500 (1/10th of 6E) Tick size: 0.0001 per EUR/USD ($1.25 per tick) Lower margin requirements provide access to traders with smaller accounts, currently around $260 per contract. M6E offers a lower-cost alternative to 6E, making it a useful instrument for adjusting position sizes and managing risk effectively. Traders should consider market conditions and leverage when determining position sizes. Execution and Trade Management Before executing a trade, price must confirm a breakout by fully breaking above UML for long trades or below LML for short trades. Additional confirmation through volume trends, momentum indicators, or candlestick patterns may help validate the move. If price does not confirm the breakout, the setup remains invalid. If price re-enters the pitchfork channel, traders should reassess market structure before taking a new position. Stop losses should be maintained at levels that align with a structured risk-reward plan. Conclusion Andrew’s Pitchfork provides a structured approach for trading trend continuation and reversals. This setup allows for both long and short breakout opportunities, depending on how price reacts at key pitchfork levels. For traders in The Leap Trading Competition, this setup highlights the importance of disciplined execution, waiting for confirmation, and managing risk effectively when trading futures. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:M6E1!Education
by traddictiv
4
Tracking Crisis with Stocks/Gold RatioGold Surges with Three Major Crises Over the past 25 years, we have witnessed three significant financial crises: the Dot-Com Bubble, the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the recent 9% inflation crisis. In each of these events, a distinct pattern emerged—gold surged before the crisis reached its full intensity. Historically, gold's price has experienced notable gains before economic downturns: • Dot-Com Bubble: +34% surge • 2008 Financial Crisis: +89% surge • Inflation Crisis (2022): +24% surge Currently, gold has surged 83% from its trough in November 2022. Given this historical correlation, could we be on the verge of another financial crisis? Why Are Central Banks Stockpiling Gold? This current gold rally bears similarities to past surges but also has a crucial distinction. While demand for gold remains strong, this time around, central banks are leading the charge in purchasing gold at an unprecedented rate since 2022. Gold serves a dual function: 1. Inflation Hedge – A safeguard against inflation. 2. Currency Hedge – Protection against currency devaluation. Central banks' aggressive gold acquisitions suggest expectations of prolonged inflation and currency instability. As fiat currencies weaken, inflationary pressures mount, reinforcing gold’s attractiveness as a safe haven asset. Fundamental Indicators Paint a Cautionary Picture A deeper dive into key economic indicators suggests a challenging outlook. Here are some red flags: • Treasury Bonds in a Downtrend – Indicating a loss of confidence in long-term debt securities. • Interest Rates Remain High – Despite inflation cooling from 9% to 3%, borrowing costs remain significantly higher than pre-2022 levels. Elevated interest rates place pressure on businesses and, eventually, stock prices. • Inflation Remains Stubborn – The lowest recorded inflation since the peak was 2.4%, but it has now ticked back up to 3%. With ongoing tariff escalations, inflation could reignite. These fundamental factors indicate that financial markets remain vulnerable to shocks, reinforcing the case for cautious positioning. The Technical Outlook: A Bullish Trend Still Holds Despite fundamental concerns, technical analysis suggests that the current AI-driven market rally, which began after the introduction of ChatGPT, remains intact. A strong uptrend line connecting all major troughs continues to act as a support level. Timing the Bear with the Crisis The bond market is already signaling distress. If equity markets break below this well-established uptrend line, my strategy will shift dramatically. Instead of looking for buying opportunities on dips, I will pivot to selling on strengths, anticipating a market downturn. My Trading Strategy: Still Buying on Dips I have provided a daily chart with updated trendlines, marking key support and resistance levels. My trading approach will be guided by these levels to manage risk effectively. Preferred Instruments: Outright futures and call options. Market Outlook: Cautiously bullish. While economic conditions warrant vigilance, technical indicators suggest that the bullish trend remains intact—until proven otherwise. Happy trading! Please see the following disclaimer and information that you may find useful: E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options Ticker: NQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • My mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Trading competition: www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
Tracking Crisis with This Ratio – US Markets vs GoldThese are the 3 major crisis over the last 25 years. The dot com, 08 and the recent 9% inflation crisis. Before each crisis get into its full swing, I have observed there was a surge in gold. In this tutorial, I will share: 1) Why a surge in gold before each crisis? 2) What are the key variables that we should be looking out for this year? and 3) I hope I don’t sound too ambitious in discussing how to time this move? E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options Ticker: NQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
6
Leap Ahead with a Dual Breakout Setup on ES and MESThe Leap Trading Competition: A Chance to Trade S&P 500 Futures TradingView’s "The Leap" Trading Competition gives traders the opportunity to test their futures trading strategies in a competitive environment. Participants have access to select CME Group futures contracts, including E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) and Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures (MES). This article presents a dual breakout trade setup, analyzing both bullish and bearish scenarios based on key Fibonacci levels and low volatility price ranges. The goal is to trade the breakout of a well-defined range and target either a Fibonacci extension to the upside or a retracement level to the downside. Understanding Breakouts and Fibonacci Levels A breakout occurs when price moves beyond a defined support or resistance level, often leading to a strong trend continuation. In this case, the trading range between 6146.75 and 6121.25 is the key level to watch. A breakout above this range suggests bullish momentum, while a breakout below signals bearish pressure. Fibonacci retracement levels are used to identify potential support or resistance zones based on past price movements. The 50% retracement level at 5985.75 aligns with a UFO support, making it a key downside target if price breaks lower. Fibonacci extension levels project potential price targets beyond the most recent high or low. The 100% Fibonacci extension at 6288.75 serves as the projected upside target if price breaks higher. The Dual Breakout Trade Setup In a bullish scenario, a breakout above 6146.75 confirms entry to the upside. The target for this trade is the 100% Fibonacci extension at 6288.75. A stop loss is placed below the breakout level at a distance that ensures a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio. In a bearish scenario, a breakdown below 6121.25 confirms entry to the downside. The target is the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 5985.75, which aligns with a UFO support zone. A stop loss is placed above the breakdown level, ensuring a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Risk management considerations include adjusting stop losses based on a trader’s preferred risk-reward ratio. Scaling out at intermediate levels can help manage volatility and secure partial profits. Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) details: Full contract specs: ES Contract Specifications – CME Group Contract size: $50 x S&P 500 Index Tick size: 0.25 index points ($12.50 per tick) Margin requirements depend on broker conditions and market volatility – Currently ≈$15,000 per contract. Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures (MES) details: Full contract specs: MES Contract Specifications – CME Group Contract size: $5 x S&P 500 Index (1/10th of ES) Tick size: 0.25 index points ($1.25 per tick) Lower margin requirements make it more accessible for smaller accounts – Currently ≈$1,500 per contract. Leverage in ES and MES magnifies both potential gains and losses. Traders should consider margin requirements and market conditions when determining position sizes. Execution and Market Conditions Before executing a trade, a typical breakout trader would watch price confirm a breakout by sustaining above or below the key levels. Additional confirmation from volume trends and momentum indicators can improve trade accuracy. If price does not break out, the setup remains invalid. If a false breakout occurs, traders may need to reassess conditions before re-entering. Conclusion A dual breakout setup provides both bullish and bearish opportunities depending on price movement. Fibonacci extensions provide upside targets, while retracement levels align with strong support zones for downside moves. For participants in The Leap Trading Competition, this setup highlights the importance of disciplined execution, confirmation, and structured risk management. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
Inflation Fears Weigh More than China Tech GainsDeepSeek Is Not the Market’s Biggest Concern Over the past few days following the emergence of DeepSeek, Nasdaq or technology stocks have experienced a notable 6% decline across all major U.S. indices. However, this recent pullback pales in comparison to the more substantial drop seen in December. Small-Cap Stocks Take a Bigger Hit The Russell 2000, which tracks small and medium-sized enterprises in the U.S., suffered an even sharper decline, falling by 12%. This suggests that broader economic concerns, beyond just the tech sector, are weighing on investor sentiment. Then, What Is It? On December 18, during the highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Federal Reserve announced a widely expected 0.25% rate cut, bringing the Fed Funds Rate down to 4.5%. However, it wasn’t the rate cut that rattled the market—it was Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that followed. “… the median participant projected that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be 3.9% at the end of 2025, indicating expectations of two additional rate cuts in 2025, down from the four projected in the previous summary.” This statement signaled that the Fed remains hawkish on inflation, with expectations of only two rate cuts in 2025 instead of the previously projected four. As a result, borrowing costs are likely to remain elevated at around 3.9%, a scenario that investors had not fully priced in. The market reacted negatively, with indices falling sharply over the subsequent weeks. Market Stabilization Amid China Tech Competition Despite the recent downturn, there are signs of stabilization, with major indices still maintaining their position along an established uptrend line. As long as inflation continues to ease—hovering around 3% or, ideally, heading toward the Fed’s 2% target—the broader market outlook remains positive. From a strategic standpoint, I will continue to focus on buying dips if the market respects the uptrend line. However, if hopes for rate cuts in 2025 fade and the trend begins to break below key support levels, my strategy will shift toward selling into strength when opportunities arise. Short-Term Trading Outlook To refine my trading decisions, I have also drawn trendlines on an hourly chart. Applying the same uptrend principles, these lines serve as a guideline for short-term trading in the Micro S&P 500 futures. With the latest January Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading at 3%—higher than expected—I will be closely monitoring my daily chart's uptrend line. While external economic conditions remain unpredictable, adapting trading strategies in response to market trends is key to staying ahead. Please see the following disclaimer and information that you may find useful: E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options Ticker: ES Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $12.50 Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options Ticker: MES Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $1.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • My mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Trading competition: www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by konhow
#TheFuturesLeapBitcoin has been on the forefront of traders minds over the past few months with the strong move to the upside over the $100,000 mark analysts have been looking for for some time. Since the January Highs, prices have come down and been bouncing back and forth, and now traders are asking “what’s next?” TradingView’s “The Leap” Trading Competition presents a unique opportunity for traders to put their futures trading skills to the test. This competition allows participants to trade select CME Group futures contracts giving traders access to some of the most actively traded commodities in the world. Register and compete in "The Leap" here: TradingView Competition Registration . As for prizes, there’s something for everyone 250 awards, including cash and plan extensions. 1st place — $3,000 2nd place — $1,500 3rd place — $1,200 4th place — $1,000 5th place — $800 Places from 6th to 25th — $500 Places from 26th to 50th — $300 Places from 51st to 250th — 6 more months of your current plan Symbols for trading: Ten futures are available, representing the most popular CME Group contracts: E-Mini Nasdaq-100, Micro E-Mini S&P, Micro Bitcoin, gold, and more. CL1! MES1! NQ1! MBT1! MCL1! M6E1! MGC1! GC1! ES1! MNQ1! If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME:BTC1!
by CME_Group
Markets Seeing Mixed ResultsMarkets were seeing mixed results today with US Equity prices slightly lower along with Crude Oil and Gold. Traders saw CPI come in better than expected while the Crude Inventories report came in higher than expected. The Crude Market specifically has had a volatile beginning to 2025 with a lot of the recent price action hovering around the 200-day moving average. The initial jump in prices to the recent January 15th high came after breaking through the 200-day moving average and the volatility around that level has come back this week. Crude Oil has several fundamental factors that can affect the price drastically, including global tensions and supply and demand, which is why the CME offers different sized products for Crude Oil to help traders manage their risk ranging from the full size to the micro contract. For the rest of the week, traders will be looking at the jobless claims number along with the PPI for an indication on inflation moving forward. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
NYMEX:CLH2025
by CME_Group
DeepSeek Is Not What the Market FearsWith the emergence of DeepSeek, tech stocks have generally dropped by 6% over these few short days across all US indices, but from the peak in late November to December, we saw a much more massive drop among all of them. The Russell 2000, representing small and medium-sized enterprises in the U.S., declined by 12%, What triggered this sell-off in the tech giants (Nasdaq), the old guards (Dow Jones), the suite of blue-chip stocks (S&P 500), and the medium-sized firms (Russell 2000)? Markets are inter-connected. What should we be looking out for, and how should we navigate if the market break below this recent all-time low? E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options Ticker: ES Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $12.50 Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures & Options Ticker: MES Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $1.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Trading competition: www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by konhow
Leap Ahead with a Bearish Divergence on Gold FuturesThe Leap Trading Competition: A Chance to Trade Gold Futures TradingView’s "The Leap" Trading Competition is an opportunity for traders to test their futures trading skills. Participants can trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Gold Futures (GC) and Micro Gold Futures (MGC). Register and participate here: TradingView Competition Registration . This article presents a structured short trade setup based on a bearish divergence identified using the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and key pivot point levels for confirmation. The trade plan focuses on waiting for price to break below the pivot point at 2866.8 before executing the trade, with clear targets and risk management. Identifying the Trade Setup Bearish divergence occurs when price makes higher highs while an indicator, such as CCI, makes lower highs. This signals weakening momentum and a potential reversal. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) measures price deviations from its average and helps traders identify overbought or oversold conditions. Pivot points are calculated from previous price action and serve as key support and resistance levels. The pivot at 2866.8 is the reference level in this setup. A breakdown below this level may suggest further downside momentum, increasing the probability of a successful short trade. The trade plan combines CCI divergence with pivot point confirmation. While divergence signals a potential shift, entry is only considered if price trades below 2866.8. This approach reduces false signals and improves trade accuracy. The first target is set at 2823.0, aligning with an intermediate support level (S1), while the final target is near S2 at 2776.2, just above a UFO support zone. Trade Plan and Risk Management The short trade is triggered only if price trades below 2866.8. The stop loss is placed above the entry at a level ensuring at least a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Profit targets are structured to lock in gains progressively: The first exit is at 2823.0, where partial profits can be taken. The final exit is near 2776.2, positioned just above a UFO support level. Stop placement may vary based on the trader’s preferred risk-reward ratio. Position sizing should be adjusted according to account size and market volatility. Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements Gold Futures (GC) details: Full contract specs: GC Contract Specifications – CME Group Contract size: 100 troy ounces Tick size: 0.10 per ounce ($10 per tick) Margin requirements depend on broker conditions and market volatility. Currently around $12,500 per contract. Micro Gold Futures (MGC) details: Full contract specs: MGC Contract Specifications – CME Group Contract size: 10 troy ounces (1/10th of GC) Tick size: 0.10 per ounce ($1 per tick) Lower margin requirements provide access to smaller traders. Currently around $1,250 per contract. Leverage impacts both potential gains and losses. Traders should consider market conditions and margin requirements when adjusting position sizes. Execution and Market Conditions Before executing the trade, price must break below 2866.8. Additional confirmation can be sought through volume trends and price action signals. If price does not break the pivot, the short setup is invalid. If price consolidates, traders should reassess momentum before committing to the trade. Conclusion Bearish CCI divergence signals potential market weakness, but confirmation from the pivot breakdown is key before executing a short trade. A structured approach with well-defined targets and risk management increases the probability of success. For traders in The Leap Trading Competition, this setup highlights the importance of discipline, confirmation, and scaling out of trades to manage risk effectively. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
The 3rd Major Pivot in Gold’s Uptrend - Since Trade War in 2018We just witnessed the start of another pivot in gold when Trump won the U.S. presidential election in November 2024. My gold trading strategy has always focused on buying dips while keeping any short-selling opportunities short-term. The chart above clearly illustrates three major V-shaped formations in gold. After each tariff or trade war, a V-shaped pattern formed in the same month the policy was initiated, followed by a subsequent uptrend. Recently, I published a video analyzing other significant tariffs since the U.S.-China trade war began in 2018. We observed a consistent pattern: after each tariff or trade war, the same month of policy initiation saw the formation of a V-shaped trough, followed by an uptrend. This time, the V-shaped trough occurred during the U.S. presidential election month. The right side of this V-shape was completed with the announcement of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, signaling the expansion of the trade war beyond China. The consequence of trade wars is inflation, and gold has historically served as a leading indicator of this trend. If the trade war persists and intensifies, a continued uptrend in gold seems inevitable. Analyzing the long-term monthly chart using my parallel channel approach, we observed gold prices encountering resistance around $2,600 in September 2024 and beyond. However, by the close of January, the price action provided a clear confirmation of the ongoing gold uptrend. Gold firmly closed above $2,600, reaching $2,835 for COMEX Micro Gold Futures. On the 3-hour chart, I have provided another set of parallel channels as a guide to track support and resistance levels as gold trends further. As gold prices continue to climb, their notional value can become quite large for retail traders. COMEX Micro Gold Futures, being 1/10th the size of the regular gold contract, is a better option for me when the next buying opportunity arises. Recently, CME launched a new contract—a pocket-sized one-ounce gold contract. One key to successful trading is selecting the right contract size for oneself, which is crucial for effective risk management. Once again, my strategy for gold remains the same: focus on buying dips while keeping any short-selling opportunities short-term. Please see the following disclaimer and information that you may find useful: Gold Contracts: Gold Futures & Options Ticker: GC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00 Micro Gold Futures & Options Ticker: MGC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 er troy ounce = $1.00 1Ounce Gold Futures Ticker: 1OZ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 per troy ounce = $0.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • My mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by konhow
U.S. Stock Indices In Recovery ModeU.S. stock indices have seen a lot of volatility with significant chop back and forth starting off 2025. With the new year comes a new administration, changing foreign policy, changing of the Fed interest rate environment, and a different earnings outlook for stocks. Looking at the small caps with the Russell 2000, the market has been in a range between the 50-day moving average and the 200-day moving average since the breakdown on December 18th, and has not been able to break on either side of these levels. After a broad selloff starting off the week for the indices, the Russell has been climbing back higher after re-testing the 200-day moving average. The market has been trading above this 200-day moving average since December of 2023 and will need some type of catalyst to break out of the current range. The Russell, or small cap stocks in general, typically are the most sensitive to interest rate changes, and with the changing tone from the Fed and the probability of rate cuts coming this year, traders will be watching the Russell 2000. Finally, we'd like to let all our readers know that CME Group has partnered with TradingView to host The Futures Leap, a 1-month trading challenge through which participants can learn to master futures markets, trade big events and compete for a share of a 25K prize purse. Click here to register for this event. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by CME_Group