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Microsoft

Trader thoughts - is the risk rally for chasing?A tough day for the equity bears or those positioned short risk – but why we’ve seen such upbeat risk flow is the subject of debate – for me, the idea of not overthinking things is advantageous - always trying to justify a move doesn’t offer much edge when trading – it’s about extracting the most out of a trade (if on the right side of the move), but reacting and managing the position if offside. Being wrong is part of the game, but as the old saying goes “just don’t stay wrong”. The question now is do you chase the move in equity and risk FX? Personally, I have my views on the moves – I think this is a portfolio shift – the market has been so underweight US equity and long Europe, UK, and China and ahead of big tech quarterly earnings we’re seeing a repositioning – back into big US tech, into growth from value, while cash levels (as a % of AUM) are being drawn down – the recent BoA/ML fund manager survey offers interesting guidance here. There is nothing to change a market narrative and affect sentiment than a market going up with a increased rate of change and while fund managers don’t like to chase a market, so often strength begets strength – especially when we’re above the 200-day MA and price has finally closed above the Jan 2022 downtrend. The fact NAS100 cash volumes were 39% above the 100-day average shows the flows, especially as the gains came when US treasury yields were up across the curve. The trade seems to be long NAS100/short UK100 (or short Europe) – although we can do it through individual stocks and ETFs too – long QQQs is a proxy for the tech trade although my preference is to use indices for pairs trades (better leverage and limited gapping risk). We’re also seeing long XRT (retail ETF/short SPY) working well, and I think there is more juice here. Microsoft is the clear catalyst now to the tech trade, where they report after-market in the session ahead – the market expects a -/+4% move on earnings and we know they do have a decent pedigree, having beaten consensus EPS and sales assumptions in 7 of the past 8 quarters. What is interesting is the flow-on effects in FX markets – buying AUD, NZD or NOK makes sense as they are the high beta risk plays – ok, we haven’t seen much participation from the commodity complex – China is offline for Lunar NY - but as a rule of thumb if growth equity is working then traders will gravitate to buy the AUD. The question here with AUDUSD having broken out and made new cycle highs has this the momentum to test the August 2022 highs of 0.7120? This is where running a simple mechanical stop (such as a 3- v 8-day EMA crossover) keeps you in the trade. EURUSD and GBPUSD are less clear as the beta to equity are far lower and one could argue that as US equity outperformed, we’ve seen capital flow to the USD – hence the sell-off from 1.0927. Chasing rallies never feels right – in fact, most retail traders will feel more compelled to sell the rip (Pepperstone clients are actually skewed perfectly 50/50 on open positions in NAS100) - but consider with Microsoft, IBM and Intel hitting us with numbers this week and the likes of Apple and Alphabet next week – if the bar is still sufficiently low enough and earnings come out topside – a big if of course – then these mentioned dynamics could still have good legs.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
MSFT Potential for Bearish Continuation| 20th January 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for MSFT is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a pullback sell entry at 244.79, where the overlap resistance and 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 263.91, where the recent swing high is. Take profit will be at 213.47, where the previous swing low is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by Rockqet
Cloud computing: what are the big players telling us?Each earnings season, we become accustomed to certain patterns. One pattern involves the biggest tech companies reporting earnings before many other smaller and medium sized firms. In what we know is a very difficult economic backdrop, it’s important to look for signals that some of the world’s largest companies are giving us. Additionally, since Microsoft Azure, Amazon Web Services, and Google Cloud are three of the world’s largest providers of public cloud infrastructure, it’s possible that these reports contain details about how companies are spending more broadly on technology. Combining the annual revenues of just these businesses (recognising that they are each part of larger companies) we see spending on cloud infrastructure annually in the hundreds of billions of dollars. We believe that there is a difference between these three large public-cloud infrastructure providers and the much greater number of far smaller Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) providers. These three firms, for instance, are a major part of most market capitalisation-weighted benchmark indices. They are at a point in their life cycles where they should exhibit sensitivity to broad, global economic activity and growth expectations. What can they tell us? The most important thing that we think the results of the big public-cloud providers can tell us regards trends in broad-based information technology spending on cloud computing. Eventually, the enterprise market will have ‘moved to the cloud’ and the growth rates of these large players should drop significantly. We are not yet there so, in this type of environment, we really want to see the resilience of cloud spending in the face of a tougher economic backdrop. There haven’t been that many economic slowdowns since the genesis of the cloud business model, and there certainly haven’t been sustained periods of inflation or central bank tightening. What don’t they tell us? The smaller SaaS providers tend to help their customers with much more specific business initiatives. It may be accounting, compliance, cybersecurity, data analysis…the list is becoming endless. These companies are more idiosyncratic, in that their individual results do not translate to broad trends as clearly as the biggest company results would. However, we might see strong spending in cybersecurity, for example, and this may not be as clearly visible in the results of the biggest companies. Our initial sense is that it is important to remember that, in many cases, businesses transitioning to the cloud is done to create efficiency and to accomplish more while investing either less time, less money or less of both. We think that this overall trend will continue, but it likely won’t continue at the rates seen in recent years if the global backdrop is characterised by a deteriorating economic picture. It’s also the case that many cloud-focused companies have seen their share prices drop significantly in 2022. This doesn’t mean that all the risk is ‘priced-in’ by any means, but it does tell us that the valuation risk of the space is lower relative to the much higher valuations seen towards the end of 2021. Microsoft Microsoft is a leader in the cloud space, and it’s important to note that the Azure infrastructure platform is one piece of the overall ‘Intelligent Cloud’ effort. Most attention goes to the year-over-year revenue growth rates, so it is instructive to first ground any discussion in some of the recent quarterly figures, which are shown in year-over-year terms for Azure specifically below1: 30 September 2021: 50% 31 December 2021: 46% 31 March 2022: 46% 30 June 2022: 40% 30 September 2022: 35% It also helps to look at the overall revenue base to help ground any further thoughts about reasonable growth. While the quarterly results do look at more than the pure Azure revenues, broadening the picture to ‘Intelligent Cloud’, we see that Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud revenue was $16.91 billion as of 30 September 2021, and that this figure increased to $20.33 billion as of 30 September 2022. This is a quarterly figure, and it is beginning to be quite large, so part of the growth rate deceleration that we may be seeing could be attributed to the size and scale of these figures. Analysts are seeing Azure customers very focused on optimising their cloud workloads, which helps them to save money, and it’s also the case that there is evidence that customers are pausing on new workloads. It is reasonable to think that, in an environment of slower economic growth, consumption-based business models like public cloud infrastructure may indicate shifts in customer-behaviour toward more essential workloads2. Amazon Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the leading public cloud infrastructure platform based on market share, often cited as having a figure around 40% of the total. If we consider the year-over-year growth rates from recent quarters3: 30 September 2021: 39%. 31 December 2021: 40% 31 March 2022: 37% 30 June 2022: 33% 30 September 2022: 27% Similar to the case of Microsoft, we are seeing decelerating growth rates. However, if we look to 30 September 2021, the trailing 12-month net sales for AWS was at $57.2 billion, and this same figure as of 30 September 2022 is $76.5 billion. These are getting to be quite large numbers. Also similar to the story with Microsoft, enterprise cloud customers are looking to reduce costs within the AWS ecosystem. Analysts are continuing to note the long-term potential and how this differs from the situation within the shorter-term macroeconomic backdrop4. Alphabet—Google Cloud in focus Google Cloud, within Alphabet, does trail both Microsoft Azure and AWS in terms of market share, but Alphabet as a whole runs a formidable, cash-rich business, so they have been known to make large, splashy deals to gain high-profile cloud customers. If we note the year-over-year growth figures5: 30 September 2021: 45% 31 December 2021: 45% 31 March 2022: 44% 30 June 2022: 36% 30 September 2022: 38% The growth rates are similar to what we noted with Microsoft Azure and AWS, but the dollar figures are much lower. As of 30 September 2021, the quarterly revenue from Google Cloud was reported at $4.99 billion, and then as of 30 September 2022, this figure had grown to $6.87 billion. It is notable that, while Microsoft and Amazon saw quarter-to-quarter decelerations in growth rates, Google Cloud is cited as a bright spot of growth acceleration in Alphabet’s results. However, we note that Alphabet’s core business was certainly not immune to deteriorating economic conditions, and that the revenue figures are growing from a smaller overall base. Conclusion: the economy matters but this is not the year 2000 The primary conclusion that we reach at this point is that economic conditions do matter for cloud computing companies. We have already seen their share price performance for 2022; it is crystal clear that market participants have re-assessed the appropriate valuation multiples for these firms considering higher inflation and higher interest rates. We will be watching closely to see how much revenue growth these companies can maintain as they continue to report earnings for the period ended 30 September 2022. The biggest companies, so far, have reported a range of 27% to 38%. It clearly isn’t the euphoric environment of 2020 any longer, but we don’t think it appropriate to say a ‘tech bubble is bursting’ either. Sources 1 Source: Microsoft’s First Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Results, 25 October 2022. Revenue figures presented in the generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) format. 2 Source: Sills, Brad & Adam Bergere. “Expected Azure decel likely temporary, cyclical; model largely derisked.” Bank of America Securities. 26 October 2022. 3 Sources: Amazon’s Quarterly Earnings Conference Call Slides for the specific periods ended: 30 September 2022, 30 June 2022, 31 March 2022, 31 December 2021 and 30 September 2021. The revenue growth figure is taken as the year-over-year growth without foreign exchange adjustment. 4 Source: Post, Justin & Michael McGovern. “Expecting Less this Holiday.” Bank of America Securities. 28 October 2022. 5 Sources: Alphabet’s Quarterly Earnings Announcements which specify the revenues from different business units on a quarterly basis for the periods ended: 30 September 2022, 30 June 2022, 31 March 2022, 31 December 2021 and 30 September 2021. Percentage growth is calculated directly from the figures that Alphabet reports for Google Cloud, all in USD terms.
NASDAQ:EMCLOUD
by aneekaguptaWTE
Elliott Wave View: Microsoft (MSFT) Looking to Extend the Next LCycle from 12.13.2022 high is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 12.13.2022 high, wave 1 ended at 233.87 and rally in wave 2 ended at 245.77. Internal subdivision of wave 2 unfolded as a zigzag structure. Up from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 240.87 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 233.94. Final leg higher wave ((c)) ended at 245.77 which also completed wave 2. Wave ((c)) unfolded as a 5 waves diagonal where wave (i) ended at 240.8 and wave (ii) ended at 233.94. Wave (iii) higher ended at 241.92, pullback in wave (iv) ended at 236.66 and final leg higher wave (v) ended at 245.77. The stock has resumed lower in wave 3. Down from wave 2, wave (i) ended at 237.40 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 241. The stock resumed lower in wave (iii) towards 225.96 and rally in wave (iv) ended at 229.89. Wave (v) lower is expected to end soon which should end wave ((i)) in higher degree. Afterwards, expect wave ((ii)) rally to correct cycle from 1.3.2023 high before the decline resumes. Near term, as far as pivot at 245.77 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside. Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension from 1.3.2023 high which comes at 195.9 – 215.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by Elliottwave-Forecast
🚘 Tesla Is Leading The Stock MarketJust as we believe that bitcoin will bottom before the S&P 500 Index, in the same way we believe that Tesla will bottom before the other major tech giants. At present time going down fast and strong would seen like something really bad. A stock dropping is surely bad for the investors but these markets move in cycle, they go up and down, up and down... At a later point in 2023, things will turn around. You will see the Tesla (TSLA) stock growing while other tech giants such as Apple, Microsoft and Google will still have a long way down to go. This will be a positive for Tesla investors, as they will be seeing their stock growing while everything else is still searching for a market low. Out of crisis, opportunity comes. Once we hit bottom, the only place left to go is up. This major downturn we will see in 2023, we will turn into a positive once it is over and done. We learn from mistakes. Out of tough situations innovation and evolution is the result. Look at Bitcoin/cryptocurrency as an example, it is the result of the 2008/09 fiasco. Namaste.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by MasterAnanda
3
MSFT continuation wedge (bearish)This is a Continuation Wedge Pattern, Medium-term Bearish. The inbound duration took about 64 days. the expected pattern duration *from the break of the wedge*, is roughly 22 days. with a target price anywhere around that 200 area. say 199 - 207 i dont want to keep boring you soo, i hoped you enjoyed this, and if you did could you kindly smash like! Happy Christmas and hope have a wonderful new year. thanks for reading. thats all from me, Happy Trading my friends.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by Jbridgez
Buying MSFT break of recent high.Microsoft - 30d expiry - We look to Buy a break of 253.11 (stop at 243.98) Prices have reacted from 213.43. Posted a Double Top formation. 250.58 has been pivotal. The previous swing high is located at 253.00. A break of the recent high at 253.00 should result in a further move higher. Short term momentum is bullish. The bias is to break to the upside. Our profit targets will be 274.98 and 279.98 Resistance: 250.00 / 260.00 / 267.00 Support: 235.00 / 220.00 / 210.00 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by Saxo
Microsoft bottomed out?Microsoft - Medium Term - We look to Buy at 252.55 (stop at 236.92) Price action looks to be forming a bottom. A bullish reverse Head and Shoulders has formed. Neckline comes in at 256.15. We have a Gap open at 252.54 from 12/12/2022 to 13/12/2023. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 252.55, resulting in improved risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 298.90 and 310 Resistance: 263.92 / 266.65 / 267.45 Support: 252.55 / 242.21 / 238.21 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by VantageMarkets
Microsoft Corp. Goes Bullish? ... The New World Order!You know how you get to see all the headlines when browsing through TradingView's homepage, impossible to avoid. We love it because it gives me so many ideas... "Microsoft Better Than Hot Bread". "Microsoft Develops New Air Conditioner That Will Override The Fed". "Microsoft Comes Up With Better Than Bacon". Etc. It is very misleading, that's our point. Whenever the market is about to crash, all the news website start publishing bullish headlines. Whenever the market is about to rise, all the news website start publishing bearish headlines. Today we have so many bullish headlines for the stock market, the SPX, etc. See what happens in a few days. Microsoft Crop. (MSFT) uptrend is ending after 13 years. This can turn into a simple, normal, classic correction or maybe it can get really bad. We are looking at the monthly timeframe and MSFT is still trading below EMA10. Bearish. Clear downtrend since November 2021. Bearish. Decreasing volume. Bearish. What an incredible ride... Can't wait to see how it will all develop... Sam-FTX just got arrested in Bahamas... Out of crisis comes opportunity. Once we hit rock bottom, the only place left to go is up. It is the end of an era. The birth of a new order. Order out of chaos. A New World Order? Namaste.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by MasterAnanda
6
Microsoft Analysis 01.12.2022Hello Traders, welcome to this free and educational analysis. I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities. If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below. I will personally reply to every single comment! If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
NASDAQ:MSFT
by basictradingtv
Microsoft Analysis 23.11.2022Hello Traders, welcome to this free and educational analysis. I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities. If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below. I will personally reply to every single comment! If you enjoyed this analysis, I would definitely appreciate it, if you smash that like button and maybe consider following my channel. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
NASDAQ:MSFT
by basictradingtv
MICROSOFT Preparing for the next rally to $260.00Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) has been trading within a long-term Channel Down since the November 22 2021 All Time High (ATH). Last time we made an analysis on it (July 15), we called for a $285 target which got hit on the previous bullish leg: On today's analysis, we will do no different but to project the next high based on the previous two bounces at the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down. As you see, after another 1W RSI bullish divergence (is on Higher Lows) against the price action (Lower Lows) we can estimate that Microsoft is pricing its last pull-back (if the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks) before the final rally that can price the new Lower High either on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) or the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. The 0.618 Fib priced the March 29 Lower High, while the 1D MA200 priced the August 15 High, which was just above the 0.618 Fib again. Based on that we can expect the next rally to hit at least $260. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by TradingShot