Microsoft
MSFT Potential for bearish drop | 29th June 2022On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku indicator and within the descending channel , we have a bearish bias that price will rise and drop from the sell entry at 260.94 where the pullback resistance is to the take profit at 241.57 in line with swing low support and 78.6% fibonacci projection . Alternatively, price could break entry structure and rise to stop loss at 275.32 where the 100% fibonacci projection and swing high resistance are.
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Bear Markets are Tough, If in Doubt Zoom Out!Looks like there is a little more upside after todays bullish close. Then the inevitable will happen... Eventually lol! This market is very frustrating at times but when I'm in doubt, I remind myself to zoom out! Looks like we have been trading in this falling wedge since right after the end of March relief rally when we tried to reclaim the 200 SMA. My thesis is that we have not traded narrowly enough in this wedge for a real break out to occur. We had a very similar bear market rally starting at my 1st finger I have charted, 24th of May. During that rally we pushed up about 12% or 1400 points, 12% up from last Thursdays low would get us up to the top of my second lower high circled. I am waiting for a rejection around this last move up to the 13,700 range I have circled before I open up a bigger short position on QQQ, by then we should be overbought and trading around 300-310 range. If this plays out I will take profit at the bottom of this wedge and keep some protective puts in my back pocket as I attempt to catch a falling knife cost averaging in to potentially catch a BIG rally into the GOOGLE split!
Feel free to give me your feedback, I am very new at charting and appreciate constructive criticism. Good luck and safe trading to you all!
-Jake T
NASDAQ:QQQ
NASDAQ:NDX
Microsoft (NASDAQ: $MSFT) Bounces Off 0.5 Fib Retracement!🏀Microsoft Corporation develops, licenses, and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. Its Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Office, Exchange, SharePoint, Microsoft Teams, Office 365 Security and Compliance, and Skype for Business, as well as related Client Access Licenses (CAL); Skype, Outlook.com, OneDrive, and LinkedIn; and Dynamics 365, a set of cloud-based and on-premises business solutions for organizations and enterprise divisions. Its Intelligent Cloud segment licenses SQL, Windows Servers, Visual Studio, System Center, and related CALs; GitHub that provides a collaboration platform and code hosting service for developers; and Azure, a cloud platform. It also offers support services and Microsoft consulting services to assist customers in developing, deploying, and managing Microsoft server and desktop solutions; and training and certification on Microsoft products. Its More Personal Computing segment provides Windows original equipment manufacturer (OEM) licensing and other non-volume licensing of the Windows operating system; Windows Commercial, such as volume licensing of the Windows operating system, Windows cloud services, and other Windows commercial offerings; patent licensing; Windows Internet of Things; and MSN advertising. It also offers Surface, PC accessories, PCs, tablets, gaming and entertainment consoles, and other devices; Gaming, including Xbox hardware, and Xbox content and services; video games and third-party video game royalties; and Search, including Bing and Microsoft advertising. It sells its products through OEMs, distributors, and resellers; and directly through digital marketplaces, online stores, and retail stores. It has collaborations with Dynatrace, Inc., Morgan Stanley, Micro Focus, WPP plc, ACI Worldwide, Inc., and iCIMS, Inc., as well as strategic relationships with Avaya Holdings Corp. and wejo Limited. Microsoft Corporation was founded in 1975 and is based in Redmond, Washington.
MSFT Potential for bearish drop | 15th June 2022On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud , we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the sell entry at 246.92 in line with the pullback resistance and 23.6% fibonacci retracement to the take profit at 231.18 in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection and -27.2% fibonacci expansion . Alternatively, price may break the entry structure and rise to the stop loss at 261.47 in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement , 61.8% fibonacci projection and pullback resistance.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
BTC BITCOIN USD : FRACTALS! MICROSOFT + BITCOIN! GOING UP!BTC BITCOIN I enjoy finding different fractals in the market and I found one here on the daily for Bitcoin vs Microsoft. People are saying that this is a bear flag and I completely disagree. When everyone is bearish then you should be bullish! Good luck out there. This is not financial advice just my opinion and what I am doing. Thank you
MSFT Potential for bearish momentum | 8th June 2022With RSI moving within a downtrend channel , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our take profit at 246.88 where the horizontal swing low support is from our sell entry at 275.80 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 290.14 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website. Disclaimer
Placed heavy short position on MSFT EODBased on the complexion of the market and weight of evidence of the market structure I continue to look for downward pressure.
I will be in this position up to this Friday; however, may choose to exit within 1-2 days.
Speaking of Friday: Friday, June 10th CPI Expectations.
I'm expecting to see a 1.6% increase for the month of May, which will all but destroy the narrative by the Fed that inflation is coming down and the worst is behind us.
Based on the M2 Money Supply and correlating that with money growth, GDP, and a new element total debt of the economy -- there is a tight correlation al the way back to the 1960's with these new formulations.
CPI is understating by ~ 10% which means we "should" be seeing further price increases in price inflation.
I do not believe we see the inflation peak until early 2023 where that would peak around 10.6%. I believe the Weight of the Evidence is Statistically on my side that we have not seen the end of price inflation.
This might push that barrel price of oil up above the $135 a barrel and push gasoline prices even higher.
The downward pressure goes for the high bets tech sector. If you go to the Facebook link (below and in my profile) you'll find some additional charts and annotations.
In Bear Markets, the weight of the evidence is when the bulls are unable to maintain and sustain market sentiment when the markets gap-up and they fail to control the narrative.
Recession?!!It certainly doesn't look good on the weekly. Price failed to continue that bullish momentum into the SSB. The subsequent rejection n the form of hanging man-ish looking candle is a catalyst for my short. The target is the other side of the SSB. It could just drop and be done in a week you know. . .R multiple is over 3.
MSFT Potential for bearish momentum | 2nd June 2022With RSI moving within a downtrend channel , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our take profit at 246.88 where the horizontal swing low support is from our sell entry at 275.80 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 290.14 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website. Disclaimer
MSFT Potential for bearish momentum | 27th May 2022With prices below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our take profit at 252.33 where the horizontal pullback support is from our sell entry at 271.89 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 290.14 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Bearish breakdown for MSFT on the Fibonacci Bollinger BandThe monthly chart for Microsoft (MSFT) shows a breakdown below the upper band (red line) of the Fibonacci Bollinger Bands (FBB) indicator. While it is likely that MSFT will bounce for the time being, as inflation worries cool and tech stocks attempt a rally, the upper band will likely act as resistance. If the price rebounds it might be hard to sustain a breakout above $300. While I like MSFT as much as anyone else, the charts do not lie. The chart is showing that there is a long-term mean reversion occurring in the price of MSFT. The white line is the standard deviation basis for the monthly chart which reflects the downside potential. It's quite steep and the yearly oscillators are saying MSFT is primed to correct down to this level. All of this will unfold slowly (months to years) and fakeouts might trap some bulls. Is your MSFT position prepared for a worst-case scenario reversion to the mean? Trade wisely.
Not financial advice.
VMW: Merger Arbitrage !?VMware
Intraday - We look to Buy at 110.32 (stop at 100.60)
This stock has recently been in the news headlines. Broadcom agreed to buy the company for $61B USD. Trading volume is increasing. We look for a temporary move lower. Bespoke support is located at 110.00. Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 139.88 and 150.00
Resistance: 140.00 / 150.00 / 167.00
Support: 110.00 / 92.50 / 85.50
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Daily US Stocks Volatility 26 May 22 APPL, TSLA, MSFT, AMAZApple 26 May 2022
The current volatility is expected with close to 85% chance to be below 3.96%
In this case, our channel for today is going to be
TOP 146
BOT 135
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Microsoft 26 May 2022
The current volatility is expected with close to 85% chance to be below 3.96%
In this case, our channel for today is going to be
TOP 272
BOT 253
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TESLA 26 May 2022
The current volatility is expected with close to 85% chance to be below 3.96%
In this case, our channel for today is going to be
TOP 716
BOT 602
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AMAZON 26 May 2022
The current volatility is expected with close to 85% chance to be below 3.96%
In this case, our channel for today is going to be
TOP 2255
BOT 2010
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Daily US Stocks Volatility Forecast 23 May 22 APPL, TSLA, MSFTApple 23 May 2022
For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 2.63% movement.
So with a more than 78% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 138 open candle value, is going to be:
TOP 138 + 3.6 -> aprox 141.6
BOT 138 - 3.6 -> aprox 134.4
At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 3.94%
With this we can achieve over the last 5000+ daily candles, a 90% probability.
So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within
TOP 138 + 5.4 -> aprox 143.4
BOT 138 - 5.4 -> aprox 132.6
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Microsoft 23 May 2022
For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 2.63% movement.
So with a more than 78% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 253 open candle value, is going to be:
TOP 253 + 6.6 -> aprox 259,6
BOT 253 - 6.6 -> aprox 246,4
At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 3.75%
With this we can achieve over the last 5000+ daily candles, a 92% probability.
So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within
TOP 253 + 9.5 -> aprox 262,5
BOT 253 - 9.5 -> aprox 243,5
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TSLA 23 May 2022
For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 5.44% movement.
So with a more than 78% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 665 open candle value, is going to be:
TOP 665 + 36 -> aprox 701
BOT 665 - 36 -> aprox 629
At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 5.44%
With this we can achieve over the last 5000+ daily candles, a 90% probability.
So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within
TOP 665 + 55 -> aprox 720
BOT 665 - 55 -> aprox 610
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Google 23 May 2022
For today, based on the last 30 days, the current implied volatility is around 2.7% movement.
So with a more than 78% chance we can estimate that the current daily channel made with 2180 open candle value, is going to be:
TOP 2180 + 60 -> aprox 2240
BOT 2180 - 60 -> aprox 2120
At the same time, if we want to increase our probability, we can go for a IV of 3.6%
With this we can achieve over the last 4000+daily candles, a 90% probability.
So in this case , our daily channel is going to be compressed within
TOP 2180 + 80 -> aprox 2260
BOT 2180 - 80 -> aprox 2100
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Weekly Volatility Forecast 23-29 May 2022 APPL, AMAZ, MSFTAPPLE 23-29 May 2022
We can based on the last month analysis, that the current volatility is around 8%
This is translated into 11$ from the current point.
So lets imagine that APPLE is going open Monday candle around 138
With that in mind, with close to 86% probability of pointing correctly the top and bottom places we are going to have:
TOP 138 + 11 -> aprox 149
BOT 138 - 11 -> aprox 127
If we want at the same time to narrow a bit this channel, we can go for close to 76% probability.
In this case the volatility would be around 6% => 8$
TOP 138 + 8 -> aprox 146
BOT 138 - 8 -> aprox 130
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MICROSOFT 23-29 May 2022
We can based on the last month analysis, that the current volatility is around 7.4%
This is translated into 18$ from the current point.
So lets imagine that MICROSOFT is going open Monday candle around 250
With that in mind, with close to 87% probability of pointing correctly the top and bottom places we are going to have:
TOP 250 + 19 -> aprox 269
BOT 250 - 19 -> aprox 231
If we want at the same time to narrow a bit this channel, we can go for close to 78% probability.
In this case the volatility would be around 5.57% => 14$
TOP 250 + 14 -> aprox 264
BOT 250 - 14 -> aprox 236
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AMAZON 23-29 May 2022
We can based on the last month analysis, that the current volatility is around 12.25%
This is translated into 260$ from the current point.
So lets imagine that AMAZON is going open Monday candle around 2150
With that in mind, with close to 87% probability of pointing correctly the top and bottom places we are going to have:
TOP 2150 + 260 -> aprox 2410
BOT 2150 - 260 -> aprox 1890
If we want at the same time to narrow a bit this channel, we can go for close to 77% probability.
In this case the volatility would be around 9.2% => 200$
TOP 2150 + 200-> aprox 2350
BOT 2150 - 200 -> aprox 1950
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Microsoft - Long PositionThere's A Lot To Like About Microsoft's Upcoming US$0.62 Dividend. The company's next dividend payment will be US$0.62 per share, and in the last 12 months, the company paid a total of US$2.48 per share. Last year's total dividend payments show that Microsoft has a trailing yield of 0.9% on the current share price of $261.12. Dividends are an important source of income to many shareholders, but the health of the business is crucial to maintaining those dividends. That's why we should always check whether the dividend payments appear sustainable, and if the company is growing.
Microsoft Stocks will be BullishMicrosoft's Stocks is in a Descending Channel and Now the Price is at the Bottom of that Channel. The Price Will Start to Increase to the Top of the Channel Pretty Soon because the Fact that It is at the Bottom of the channel, makes it enough Reason to Increase and also we have a Regular Bullish Divergence on MACD Indicator as well Which is also another Reason for Us to Think about Bullish Stuff!
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Thank you for seeing idea .
Have a nice day and Good luck