Microsoft
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Drawn trendline + LR on QuisCharts are an amazing tool. Been an amazing 1.5 years having control of my money to learn about technical analysis. I have been meaning to take a look at quis technically on this uptrend, Linear Regression I find is a great tool to price gain further context on longer time frames.
I started this chart by inputting my own support and resistance trend lines. It follows that as you map out a line acting as resistance and one as support, you are going to find alot of the stocks price action in between. This price action acts as data to be inputted into a Linear Regression model. Utilizing 3 regression lines set from Standard Deviations -3 to +3, we capture 99.7% of data-price, for Quis.
Quis over the past week has again started tightening up. Trading well below its daily average today into last weeks session. I have to admit I was off on the last tighten up around earnings. stock slipped up and went the other way for a week. these weeks candles and volume will be very telling to me on Quis being ready to go.
Catalysts on the near term horizon include Visa end point certification for LedgerPay. LedgerPay is the first payment processing solution that is built on cloud technology, Microsofts Azure Cloud to be specific. You may have seen news out that Amazon is looking to build its own payment platform for retail business. Its to be able to take in all the data on AWS network and make AWS more valuable. Microsoft in a battle forever now on cloud with Amazon got here first by working with Quisitive, a premier partner of microsoft. Microsoft expects to punch back here with Quis as its boxer, this is due to the product offering and funcationality of Ledgerpay and its data intelligence arm and those capabilities.
Further to certification, I think a contract being landed (guidance given on last earnings call Q&A that customers for Ledgerpay would likely be signing contracts before or shortly after LP is fully commercialized with Visa end point cert. It is on news of these contracts I feel the stock can push up to an area in the +2-+3 SD Channel. CEO Mike Reinhart represented Quis on an gateway investor webinar last week and guided that an uplist in Canada to the TSX was foundationally in place, and that US uplist was near as well. $QUISF currently trade on the pinks OTC. Quis also just filed an updated and amended SBP, as i note in my DD pieces, dilution is part of the game here and a risk to upside movement. Given the last two raises made by quis came after moves up, I think it follows that this will will too, but that may not align with acquisition opportunity forcing it to come earlier.
In any case please always do your DD, feel free to check out my substack lebellechart for my own DD, and follow your own trading & investing rules.
Cheers,
Luke
MSFT Short position Microsoft Corporation is an American multinational technology corporation which produces computer software, consumer electronics, personal computers, and related services.
From mid-May, we can see an increasing trend of the Microsoft Corporation. However, according to the MACD indicator that shows a bearish confirmation, we expect a decrease in the stock price. Also, RSI recently reached 70 and is showing a decrease these days. Moreover, the price hit an upper boundary of the Keltner channel.
Position: SHORT
Stop-loss $302.81
Entry range: $299.93-$302.81
Target I: $286.88
Target II: $274.82
As soon as target I is reached, we recommend repeating the test again and deciding whether to continue with a short position hence, to target II, or to go a long position.
MICROSOFT:FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS+PRICE ACTION & NEXT TARGET|LONG🔔Microsoft released its fourth-quarter results on July 27. The company's revenue rose 21% year over year to $46.2 billion, beating forecasts by $1.9 billion, and earnings rose 49% to $2.17 per share, beating expectations by $0.25. Commercial cloud revenue - which comes primarily from Microsoft 365 (formerly Office 365), LinkedIn, Dynamics CRM, and the Azure cloud infrastructure platform - rose 36% from a year ago to $19.5 billion.
That represents an acceleration from the 33% growth in the commercial cloud segment in Q3, but Azure's 45% year-over-year revenue growth in constant currency slowed down from the 46% growth in the third quarter. However, Azure revenue still grew 51% in the period, compared to 50% growth in the previous quarter, so it profited from favorable currency factors.
Azure's growth rate still looks strong, but Microsoft's unwillingness to disclose any further numbers on the cloud platform is discouraging. Let's look at three reasons why Microsoft should finally open the curtain.
First, it is one of Microsoft's most significant businesses.
Azure is the main growth engine of the commercial cloud division. It has consistently grown faster than Microsoft/Office 365 and Dynamics 365 and remains the second-largest cloud infrastructure platform in the world after Amazon Web Services (AWS).
According to Canalys, Azure controlled 22 percent of the global cloud infrastructure market in the second quarter of 2021. It is behind AWS at 31%, but well ahead of Alphabet's Google Cloud, which is in third place with an 8% share.
Disclosing the exact amount of Azure's revenues and profits would let investors know whether Microsoft has pricing power in this competitive market, or whether it is simply trading margins for market share.
Second, consider that Amazon and Google don't hide their cloud metrics.
In 2015, Amazon began reporting accurate data on AWS revenue and operating profits. Google followed suit, reporting accurate Google Cloud revenues in 2019 and then disclosing the division's operating losses in 2020.
Last year, Amazon's AWS revenue grew 30% to $45.4 billion, or 12% of total revenue. Segment operating income rose 47% to $13.5 billion and accounted for 59% of operating income. In other words, Amazon can support the development of its low-margin retail business at the expense of its higher-margin cloud business, giving it an advantage over other online and offline retailers.
Revenues at Alphabet's Google Cloud unit rose 46% to $13.1 billion in 2020, a 7% increase. The division's operating loss increased from $4.6 billion to $5.6 billion, but Alphabet's total operating income still rose 20% to $41.2 billion. These numbers suggest that Google Cloud is offering lower prices than AWS to expand its market share, but the company can afford to stick with this losing strategy since it can compensate its losses from cloud computing with higher advertising revenue.
As for Azure, investors still don't know how much the cloud platform boosts Microsoft's revenues and how much it reduces profit growth.
Finally, no more vague hints about Azure's margins.
Microsoft executives mention Azure dozens of times during every conference call, but only hint a few times at the platform's actual gross margin. During Microsoft's third-quarter conference call in April, CFO Amy Hood said Azure's gross margin is growing, but the "shift in sales mix toward Azure" is still reducing the overall gross margin of the commercial cloud segment.
In the fourth quarter, Microsoft said that commercial cloud gross margins "increased 4 points to 70% despite the shift in revenue mix toward Azure," and the 14% year-over-year increase in operating expenses was mostly "driven by investments in Azure" - but we don't know exactly how much was spent.
These indefinite comments tell us three things about Azure: it makes far less profit than Microsoft's other commercial cloud businesses, it offers customers lower rates to keep up with AWS and Google Cloud, and it is constantly expanding with new investments and services.
Giving accurate revenue and operating profit data would clarify things and show investors how much money Microsoft is losing (or perhaps making) on one of its fastest-growing businesses.
Former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer recommended the management to reveal cloud revenue, margins, and profits six years ago, but his successor, Satya Nadella, did not follow the advice. Nadella's position made sense then, as Microsoft was just beginning its transition, but today it doesn't make much sense-particularly after Amazon and Google have laid all their cards on the table.
Microsoft Up 1739 Points!Microsoft has progressed nicely since the last post a week ago, moving up 1739 points
at the time of posting and still moving strong.
Price has not made contact with the weekly 50 simple moving average since March 2020,
but it has been using the daily 20 & 50 simple moving averages as support.
We have been seeing deep pullbacks since 2020, but from June 2021 the behaviour
of price has changed and we are seeing more of a linear clean move.
Earnings came out on July 27th, which didn’t disrupt the flow of price. A mini
consolidation has followed earnings and we now await a breakout above the current
all-time high at $290.
A break and close above the recent high will confirm a trend continuation and a move
towards the $300 round number.
How will price react to the $300 round number? This is anyone’s guess, but the
momentum should take price higher over the long term.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
MICROSOFT BreakoutAn asset I have been watching for over a month now has finally flashed some signals I have been waiting for as it has done something very major that not many will realize until weeks from now and that is that it has broken bullish out of a huge ascending channel pattern. This pattern has kept the price consolidating inside of it since September of last year and appears to be in the process of confirming this on the weekly time frame by bouncing nicely off of $283.43. This is very important because this price corresponds with the .786 fibonacci level, a level regarded as a major pivot spot for swings. Often known to be reversal areas, they can equally be a springboard for higher prices when support is found on this level. And that is exactly what appears to be taking place as we speak.
I have been in a long at $290 with orders waiting around $283 and sub $283 as well.
Potential target area is $295 as a new all time high in the near future, followed by an additional 5% move to $311.
Microsoft weekly analysis (MSFT)Hello everyone , as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
The MSFT seems to continue its bullish movement and the stock price seems to be trading in an upward channel as we are getting higher highs and higher lows, MSFT is currently trading near its 52 week high, which is a good sign. The S&P500 Index is also trading near new highs, which makes the performance in line with the market.
The average volume is 23872600. This is a good sign as it is always nice to have a liquid stock.
The long and short term trends are both positive. This is looking good! We could be seeing the price reaching a new high soon and even maybe hitting the ranges if 290.
using different indicators to understand the trend where :
1_The stock price at 281.40 trending above the MA and the EMA. MA at 256.06 and EMA at 257.94 (bullish sign)
2_The RSI is at 74.34 and reached overbought zones showing great strength in the market with no divergences between the market and the indicator. (bullish sign)
3_The MACD showing great momentum in the stock. a positive crossover is happing (bullish sign)
Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1_ 276.86 1_284.38
2_ 272.96 2_288.00
3_ 269.34 3_291.90
Fundamental point of view :
MSFT's return on assets of 18.13% is amongst the best returns of the industry. MSFT outperforms 95% of its industry peers. The industry average return on assets is -4.03%.
The stock has a profit margin of 35.02%. This is amongst the best returns in the industry. The industry average is -8.63%. MSFT outperforms 95% of its industry peers.
Microsoft said Wednesday it’s acquiring CloudKnox, a start-up whose software helps companies reduce the amount of access they provide to their cloud resources. Terms of the deal weren’t disclosed.
The move represents another step Microsoft is taking to expand its security business, in addition to working to keep Windows and its other products secure.
Over the past 5 years, MSFT shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 18.13% on average per year. And the stock has a Current Ratio of 2.29. This indicates that MSFT is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
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This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from fundamental analysts for The Fundamental point of view , not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading.