Microsoft
Microsoft (MSFT) Bearish Forecast
hey guys,
perfect structure based short setup on MSFT!
we have a key daily level and a bearish breakout of a rising wedge pattern with a lower high based on that!
+ after a breakout we see a retest with a negative bearish reaction!
based on that I expect the stock to fall to 161.0 / 152.0 levels (based on structure)
good luck!
Daily Review: GOOG, AMD, and MSFTU.S. markets began the week on a strong note, led by small caps. The Russell 2000 Index finished the day up nearly 4% while the Nasdaq 100 lagged behind notching 0.5% at the end of the session.
This week represents a pivotal point of the rally as earnings season hits full swing with big cap tech reporting this week. Some names on deck later this week are TSLA, FB, AAPL and SHOP of which I will be reviewing on later posts this week. Today, we search for some market clues with GOOG, AMD and MSFT.
Tech Flexing
It's tough to bet against tech these days. Despite a global economic shutdown, large cap tech stocks have been resilient…on the charts. It will be interesting to see how they look on the balance sheet! We begin today with Alphabet, Inc (GOOG) on a weekly view.
GOOG has staged an impressive rally off the March 23 low making up nearly half its losses from its all-time high, $1532.11. At first glance, GOOG appeared to have broken through critical long term trendline support, but after review, GOOG has found support on a trendline drawn from the 2015 lows.
GOOG is heading into 2020 earnings after delivering strong 18% increase of revenue year over year. However, there are questions on whether the internet advertising giant will be able to impress this time around. The COVID-19 pandemic has definitely had an impact on whether businesses invest in online advertising, a large share of GOOG's revenue. Whether the magnitude of the impact shows up in Q1 earnings is yet to be seen.
Overall, GOOG bulls have enjoyed the past months worth of gains. However, there is reason to be cautious going into earnings as market strength and price begin to divert while overhead weekly resistance remains. Bias: Bearish .
Technically, Beautiful
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) has been the semiconductor darling for over a year ever since breaking out from a year long cup and handle pattern on October 2019. AMD is now up 100% since that breakout and COULD be poised for more upside. I emphasized could on purpose, because on the weekly chart AMD is knocking into resistance at $59.27. Any break higher may also be met with RSI divergence. AMD in my opinion is a tough buy at these levels as the risk reward is not favorable going into earnings.
On the plus side, AMD is a beneficiary of being partnered with Sony and Microsoft who are both scheduled to be releasing brand new gaming consoles later this year. How these schedules are impacted by COVID-19 is yet to be seen. Nevertheless, I would not be surprised if AMD pulled back a bit before heading higher. Overall, I like the stock long term from a technical and fundamental perspective, but on the short term I'll be waiting on a dip. Bias: Bearish .
Trillion Dollar Baby
Above is the daily view of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT). Trading 8% below its all-time high, MSFT is going into earnings in potentially in a make or break position for the broad market. MSFT makes up the largest percentage weight of the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and today the index was lagging behind throughout the trading session. Either, MSFT and big tech have run out of gas or this is a healthy pause before marching back into all-time highs.
If MSFT does pull back, there is not much support. The rally has been a straight shot up from the lows. MSFT is a tough buy here especially after the discouraging performance of the NDX at the start of the week. Bias: Bearish .
Pivotal Week Ahead
With MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN and FB all reporting fiscal year Q1 2020 earnings this week, we should get a better grasp of how the market will trade in the months ahead. We must also assume that companies will be doing their best to lay down the framework to ease in the harsh reality of Q2 earnings, which undoubtedly will more accurately reflect the impact of the global economic shutdown. Tomorrow we have Tesla, Facebook and Apple. Have a great evening!
Microsoft Stock - Technical analysis ConsiderationThe market is Bullish, but the Violation of the trend line (it is not a very strong trendline) and the volume in the bearish direction should give us a warning.
Can it be a reversal signal? we need to wait a couple of days and perhaps we should wait for the Financial Q3 Report.
Microsoft will report fiscal Q3 2020 earnings after the market close on Wednesday and the outcome seems to be positive.
The fundamental says that the Financial results should be positive, so ideally we should go long, but technical analysis gives us a warning for now. I might be wrong, but really I doubt that Microsoft will not be impacted by the CoronaVirus and do not forget that generally Market do not follow the most logical economic path.
Microsoft will be reporting Q3 2020 Earnings on April 29Analysts are expecting close to $36.9 bn in revenues for Q3 2020. This represents a revenue growth estimate of around 20% YOY. Microsoft is in strong position to continue its business uninterrupted even during COVID-19 outbreak. However, 20% growth rate was baked into valuations at the end of January, before economic disruptions took place. Microsoft’s own guidance for Q3 2020 is - estimated revenue of $34.1 to $34.9 billion, which is lower than analysts’ estimates of $36.9 billion. Given a backdrop of economic slowdown, it will be hard for the company to exceed, and possibly even meet these expectations. The price action on the chart shows a lower top at $180 per share vs. $187 in March and RSI crossed pointing downward. In conclusion, Microsoft will remain one of the strongest drivers on the market. However, all the expectations may have been already priced in.
Bullish Entry on MicrosoftNOTE:
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SUMMARY:
Getting a long signal on Microsoft (MSFT). Can tech continue to rally here despite other sectors weighing us down? Let's hope the open tomorrow brings only green!
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STRATEGY USED:
Silver Scalper
Trend Confirmation = Range MA
Entry Signal = Bull/Bear Power
Exit Signal = Bull/Bear Power OR Range MA
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DESCRIPTION:
1. Range MA is showing an uptrend (Green bar color).
2. We recently obtained a Bull signal from Bull/Bear Power prior to the days close.
3. Since our trend indicator is painting an uptrend we will be using that Bull signal as a long entry signal.
4. Looking at the support levels S1 and S2 for potential support.
5. Looking for resistance at R1 and R2 if we do move up.
Microsoft - Amazon - Google - Macro Analysis & Gold Big tech giants are highly likely going for correction in coming quarters - those who wants to save their money pensions/retirements funds into Tech giants are buying at peaks right now. Gold has a lot of room for upside so don't even think that we will not go higher on gold at least on macro charts it suggest we may see gold by next year in 2500 range.
Zoom Easy Trends to Buy and SellReally both red lines will happen eventually. I think this is WAY OVERVALUED at $150. I actually can see zoom being dumped after the virus it doesn't even come close to stacking up to other platforms. Might even break the bottom trend eventually. All big corps are against it. Either way the buy back in zones are absolutely obvious.
If you have stock shorting is an option today it already failed at the support of weekly and failing all timeframes below it. Just an opinion. I don't want to throw down 5 grand on shorting this lol.
#MICROSOFT IS on the road to buy and absolutely to keep Hello my friends, Please support my free analysis by dropping likes, follow me and why not you can comment as well :)
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