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Microsoft

MSFT, PULLBACK Momentum, Positions Trigger, BEARISH-Indication!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis about MSFT Stock Price Action Analysis on Several Timeframe Perspectives. In the recent times MSFT has emerged with a crucial pullback to the downside almost printing over 10% of a bearish pullback. In such occassions a big question is if the bearish momentum will accelerate into the bearish direction and if higher inflation rates could heavily increase such a bearish momentum. In any cases the bearish momentum wave could trigger further long-liquidations down the path. In my chart you can watch that MSFT is about to complete a huge ascending-wedge-formation and such a ascending-wedge-formation is likely to lead to a massive pullback and bearish reversal once it has been completed with a breakout below the lower boundary. Currently this pullback could be triggered when MSFT moves below the remaining supports between the 315 to 320 area as many many long-positions are waiting below this area this will lead to such a bearish momentum that a reversal into the other direction will be unvalid. There is the possibility that MSFT firstly stays within the area and bounces in the remaining supports to form something like an initial reversal, nonetheless MSFT has still huge resistance levels in the structure especially when moving into the upper boundary of the ascending-wedge-formation this upper boundary is a paramount resistance-zone from where the pullback to the downside is inevitable. This means that also with the initial stabilization the completion of the whole ascending-wedge-formation will shape a reality for MSFT and complete the pullback and liquidations down the path. If the bearish momentum accelerates so heavily once the wedge has been completed it will be highly decisive on how MSFT moves into the final target-zone of 220 because if the bearish momentum should be that high that a reversal in this area will not be possible this will complete the huge double-top-formation and will accelerate even more liquidations to point to a scenario of MSFT moving below the 150 area. For now the bearish scenario for MSFT should not be underestimated and should be watched and because of this we will keep having the symbol in our watchlist and adjust to changing factors. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching the analysis, support from your side is greatly appreciated. VP
NASDAQ:MSFT
by VincePrince
13
XLK - Bullish Weekly CrossFor the third time in XLK price history we have had a crossover of the 50 weekly MA & 100 Weekly MA. the previous 2 times coming out of the Dot com crash and GFC when this happened it resulted in a quick multi week double digit rally. Will this rally happened again? XLK could rally while other aspects of the market rollover. Why? simply the cash moats of some of the Mega Cap companies insulate them more from rising yields. Im expecting a bounce off the support level.
AMEX:XLK
by Trading-Capital
MICROSOFT: Last chance to rebound. Selloff under this trendline.Microsoft is on a neutral technical setting on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 47.707, MACD = 0.040, ADX = 29.959) despite trading on the HL of the Rising Megaphone for the second time in 30 days. As long as this trendline holds, MSFT is a buy signal, targeting R1 (TP = 366.50). A cross under the Bullish Megaphone, will be a sell signal aiming at the 1D MA200 (TP = 300.00). It is worth mentioning that the 1D MACD formed today a Bearish Cross, the first since July 21st. The pattern could be replicating the price action of September-November 2022. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NASDAQ:MSFT
by InvestingScope
6
Microsoft's Remarkable Ascent in AI: A Key to its 40% YTD Stock Microsoft's Remarkable Ascent in AI: A Key to its 40% YTD Stock Surge Microsoft's stock has experienced an impressive 40% year-to-date surge, driven significantly by its dominant position in the realm of artificial intelligence (AI). With its early investments in AI, Microsoft has gained a substantial lead over its competitors. Companies like Amazon and Alphabet have been playing catch-up in the first half of the year, striving to match Microsoft's strides in the AI arena. However, Microsoft's strength extends beyond AI, as it boasts a portfolio of high-performing productivity services with millions of users worldwide. This strong brand recognition and extensive user base position Microsoft as a potential go-to choice for anyone seeking AI services. Here are three key insights that savvy investors are aware of regarding Microsoft's current standing: Charting a Course Towards $10 Billion in AI Revenue: During the recent Goldman Sachs Communacopia & Technology Conference, Microsoft's Chief Financial Officer, Amy Hood, reaffirmed the company's ambitious projection: the AI division is poised to surge past the $10 billion revenue milestone at an unprecedented pace, surpassing all previous business endeavors. Microsoft's strategic investment of $1 billion in the ChatGPT developer, OpenAI, in 2019, has been instrumental in catalyzing its ascendancy in the AI realm. This partnership has granted Microsoft exclusive licenses to numerous OpenAI AI models, leading to transformative enhancements across various in-house platforms. Iconic products like Word, Excel, Bing, and Azure have all undergone substantial AI-driven upgrades. Furthermore, Microsoft's subscription-based Microsoft 365 office suite is on the brink of introducing an array of AI-infused products, ushering in a new era of productivity. The transformative potential of AI extends across various industries, including education, healthcare, consumer goods, robotics, autonomous vehicles, and more. Persuading businesses to integrate AI tools into their daily operations holds great promise, and Microsoft is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend. With a commanding presence through its cloud platform, Azure, and an extensive suite of productivity tools, Microsoft is poised to become the preferred destination for enterprises seeking AI services to enhance operational efficiency. The combination of iconic brands—Windows, Office, and Azure—may give Microsoft an edge over formidable rivals like Amazon in the AI-driven landscape. Strategic Investment in the Semiconductor Arena: Microsoft's deep involvement in semiconductor technology lays a strong foundation for the long-term growth of the AI market. Recognizing the importance of robust hardware in the AI industry, Microsoft has made steady investments in various chip manufacturers to diversify the ecosystem, which has long been dominated by Nvidia. Earlier this year, Bloomberg reported Microsoft's substantial financial and engineering support for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) in its AI chip expansion efforts. This month, the chip startup d-Matrix secured $110 million in funding, with Microsoft among its prominent backers. D-Matrix focuses on the "inference" facet of AI processing, avoiding direct competition with Nvidia in training large AI models. Microsoft's investment strategy here represents strategic diversification, aligning with a distinct segment of the chip market, separate from its engagements with AMD and Nvidia. While d-Matrix's 2023 revenue projection is around $10 million, primarily from chip testing, it anticipates substantial growth as demand for AI chips rises. The company targets annual revenues ranging from $70 million to $75 million within the next two years. Sustained Dividend Growth: Unlike tech giants like Amazon and Alphabet, which have forgone dividend offerings, Microsoft has remained a dividend-friendly player, positioning itself at the forefront of the market. The company boasts a dividend yield of 0.81%, a notable figure compared to Apple's 0.53%. What truly underscores Microsoft's appeal to dividend-seeking investors is its consistent upward trajectory in dividend yield over the past decade. Microsoft's cash dividend has grown from $0.28 in 2013 to an impressive $0.68 this year. As Microsoft expands its presence in the AI landscape, which is projected to sustain a robust compound annual growth rate of 32% until 2030, the potential for amplified earnings augments the possibility of further dividend increases. While Microsoft's dividend yield may not rival that of industry peers like Verizon, which offers a substantial yield of approximately 7%, the company's unwavering commitment to growth solidifies its status as an attractive investment proposition, making its stock increasingly compelling. In conclusion, Microsoft's strategic positioning in the AI industry, its investments in the semiconductor sector, and its consistent dividend growth make it a standout choice for investors seeking long-term value and potential growth in their portfolios.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by FOREXN1
9
MICROSOFT Final chance to buy for $380.Microsoft (MSFT) has been trading within a Channel Up on the 1D logarithmic time-frame since December. At the moment, it is on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) which was previously the short-term Resistance. We are also near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, an important benchmark for this recovery attempt. Practically this is the new bullish leg following the bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up on August 18. The 1D RSI got rejected on the Symmetrical Resistance of the January 27 High and even since the Support Zone, the pattern seems to be on a perfect symmetry. It appears that we are on the respective 1D MA50 pull-back as on January 30. That bullish wave targeted the 1.236 Fibonacci extension before the next 1D MA50 pull-back. As a result we are bullish, targeting the new 1.236 Fibonacci level at $380.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by TradingShot
2
Microsoft (MSFT) -> Retesting The All Time HighMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️ I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise. This is how you build real long term wealth! In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Microsoft. Looking at the higher timeframe you can see that Microsoft stock is once again retesting the previous all time high at the $340 resistance level. Furthermore Microsoft is also creating an ascending triangle formation so I would love to see another bearish rejection and then the longer term bullish breakout. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy. Keep the long term vision🫡
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by basictradingtv
29
MSFT, Breakout Of The Flag, Targets Ahead After Confirmation!Hello, Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this update-analysis of the MSFT stock where we are looking at the recent events, the current price-structure and what we can expect the next times. As I already mentioned in past analysis MSFT was trading in a possible bull-flag formation which confirmed recently bullish to the upside, if you did not watch this analysis already I highly recommend it to you when going to my account and look at it to have a full-depth-overview. At the moment MSFT is trading at a preeminent level which is the all-time-high and MSFT provided other important technical signals which I detected therefore we are looking at the 4-hour local timeframe. Initial Analysis According The Subject (4-Hour Timeframe): As we can examine now when looking at my chart is that MSFT confirmed the bull-flag with solid bullish volatility to the upside where it is trading near the all-time-high which is currently still a decent resistance where we can get a pull-back to confirm the bull-flag a second time, this will be realized when we confirm the level at 190 as resistance and visit the upper boundary of the bull-flag to test it for a confirmation when this happens we need to hold the upper boundary and do not fall back into the channel again because this can possibly invalidate the bull-flag. Therefore it is important to hold the upper boundary and the EMA structure because when we close below these levels we will see increasing of bearish pressure within a high probable spectrum. At the moment it is possible at hand that MSFT just runs away to make a new high but that will be an unhealthy movement which can turn out to be a bull-trap and confirm to the downside again, the best way will be that MSFT confirms the bull-flag properly a second time, when this happens it can be traded either with an aggressive entry immediately at the higher boundary or with a conservative entry when MSFT visits the highs again which will provide a breakout entry scenario. In both cases, it is wise to wait on the proper confirmation as there is still a possibility given that MSFT falls back into the channel and confirms bearish which is not high at the moment but it should be kept in mind to succeed in this situation with the proper risk-preference. When we exemplify the fundamental side of things we can explore that MSFT is a decent winner in the current corona-crisis because we had a massive digitalization boom during the lockdowns which is still holding on because more and more people rely on digital economic and ecologic tools increasingly within this crisis. This digitalization boom can increase the next times or decrease as the real economy gets more important, to have a healthy market environment not only within MSFT but also within the rest market we need similar growth in the real economy and stock-market to confirm also fundamentally bullish, without that given we have a speculative rally which is an unhealthy market environment that can turn fastly to the downside, in this case, MSFT will be anticyclical to the rest of the market when it manages increasing growth in the fundamental and technical aspect otherwise it can add to the overall bearish shape we will get in the main rest of the market. In this manner, thanks for watching, support for more market insight and all the best! There is a kind of conformity to come in modern markets which is almost a paradise. Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by VincePrince
14
MSFT x BITCOIN Microsoft stock is in 13 years bull run. As human beings we all know that you can't run your whole life. There will be time when you can't run no more and you fell. The same I'm expecting with microsoft stock. But my question is: -will we see the same kind of price movement like we saw on bitcoin last bull run? I think that this is possible. Why? Because when investors will see that stock's price again gaining a momentum to the new ATH they will start feeling FOMO "I don't want to miss new ATH and high gains" . The same happened on bitcoin back in 2021. We all thought that we will see 100.000$ when we broke previous high but after taking out previous high we are dumping since then and a lot of buyers has been trapped in this fakeout above previous high. Be careful. As I said, we are in 13 years constant bull run. Stop expecting high returns from these prices where we are now because times are uncertaint.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by Cognitiq
MSFT close negative for 5 weeksMSFT close negative for 5 weeks This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Microsoft stock for the past year. The graph overlays the bottom to top golden section of October 2022. As shown in the figure, the highest point of Microsoft's stock just hit the 3.000 level of the golden section at the bottom, while the recent low point hit the 2.000 level! Due to Microsoft's stock closing negative for 5 consecutive weeks since its recent peak, it has only rebounded in the past two weeks, not reversed! In the future, Microsoft's stock market is likely to continue to weaken. Let's explore the strong support below, with the bottom of the chart facing the 1.618 gold split!
NASDAQ:MSFT
by Think_More
$MSFT -Looking for Trades after TP- We had a good trade with OTC:MSTF last week, resulting to a 32% ROI. For now, awaiting more confirmations to occurr in price action. Regarding last weekly close bounce, it appears to me it was more of Techncnical bounce nearing the *D-*W Support-Trendline. Zooming in to Smaller time-frames, price remains in a downtrend until price breaks-out from descending channel pattern and key levels. In case Support-Trendline fails to hold the price above it, 292.11$ would be the next downside target. _______ BingX _________ All in one place; - Stocks - Commodities - Forex - Indicies - Indexes - Cryptocurrencies User-friendly for advanced and beginner traders. Join today for plenty rewards to be won, especially for first timers bingx.com TRADE SAFE *** Note that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your own Financial Advisor before partaking on any Trading Activity based Solely on this Idea.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by Mr_J__fx
Palantir - Fear Worshippers of The All Seeing EyeI have to say that Palantir is a really difficult chart to read. On the one hand, looking at monthly bars, it's the kind of pattern which indicates new highs are in store. Weekly bars are about the same. Nothing about this says you can short. And its only that there's some divergences on the daily. But those divergences are really meaningful. However, at the same time, although it's up some 220%+ from the bottom, the bottom did take out the IPO low, which is not bullish. And these high prices are coming at a time when the Nasdaq and the SPX may very well have topped, which I address in my latest call: SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg Palantir is a company that is ostensibly a key component of the panopticon surveillance network that underlines the International Rules Based Order's version of the Chinese Communist Party's social credit system. At least, this is what rightists would tell you. If you asked the people behind the West's implementation of social credit, they would say they just seek to advance an enlightened society while keeping stability and security under control, and big data collection is crucial to that. Well, if you ask CCP members, they would tell you the same thing, just coated in Marxist jargon. And therein lies the problem. Mankind needs to return to its 5,000 year old traditions, which were reared and established over China's long dynasties, instead of trying to go Big Atheism and reinvent The Wheel. Regardless of if Palantir at its current $37 billion valuation is a part of the future or a part of the past and gone with the wind, the last three months of trading have been totally one directional. Which makes wanting to get short very deadly. However, conditions for a short setup that is at least a scalp were formed with the July high on the 19th. The reason for this is that price swept a key level and was met with a stiff rejection, taking a pivot. All on its own, in the stock market with the way it just likes to go uppy or grind sideways, this makes shorting or puts hard, still. But what we saw is daily candles double bottom at precisely $16.00, with Friday's trading session being yet another big green gainer on the back of such a bottom. And so, as Buffet said, one should be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy only when others are fearful. So the trade is to short somewhere between where we closed on Friday and over $18. When another dump occurs, where it dumps to will tell us everything about the future. If Palantir is truly bullish to more upside, it will preserve the June low at $13.56. If it's really bullish, it should even preserve the July low at $14.62 If it's bullish, but is going to take until 2024 to go higher, we can expect prices under $12. If it's bearish, prices under $11 are the target, with an all time low on deck and about to hit everyone on the face. Which do I think is the most likely? Frankly, probably a dump under $15 and a new high in August. There's no other way to put it or look at it at the moment. For things to be different, you'd need something like a banking crisis to intervene in the markets, a prospect I undertake here: Charles Schwab - The Harbinger Of The Next Crisis? I believe that, all things considered, the risk side of the trade right now is people who are longing this top, regarding it as a dip to buy, expecting more highs. Because people have capitulated, become greedy, and have taken their eyes off the clock. You should remember that you're just standing in an equities bear market rally while central banks have their key rates pinned over 5% and no intention to cut. This is bad news for stocks, and yet people are being told indexes are set to make a new all time high. Repricing to the downside can come violently, aggressively, be gappy, and will give those on the wrong side of the trade no chance to get out. Be very careful.
PLong
by LordWrymouth
4
Microsoft -> A Long Term Double Top?Hello Traders and Investors , my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Microsoft💪 On the monthly timeframe you can see that Microsoft stock once again retested the previous all time high at the $340 level and once again rejected it towards the downside. You can also see that after the recent retracement on Microsoft, MSFT stock is approaching previous structure at the $320 level from which we could see a short term bullish bounce. And last but not least I am just waiting for the daily timeframe to shift back to a bullish market before I then do expect a short term rejection away from the daily and weekly support area. Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint📈 Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! My previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by basictradingtv
30
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering IcebergLast week's SPX call was pretty accurate in terms of levels. What was wrong was only the order of operations and timing. ES SPX Futures - Welcome to FOMCmageddon I had felt it made sense for the market maker to sweep out the lows before taking the highs, but the plan was the opposite, and this actually adds credence to the theory that the markets are topping. Something to keep in mind about calls for new all time highs, that we're hearing everywhere now, is that equities generally don't moon in high interest rate environments, and every central bank that matters in the world except for Japan is playing with 3-5%. And nobody is cutting. Warren Buffet said to "be fearful when others are greedy" and it's really a piece of wisdom you ought to take to heart, right now. Something I would like to tell you is that tops and bottoms are, 100% of the time, hindsight calls. There is no way to actually accurately predict a top and a bottom before it unfolds. What you can do as a trader, however, is anticipate that certain levels are the target, and look to see if price action and other covariances and fundamental factors confirm the theory if price trades to that level. Then, using risk management and some rational logic, one can take the position, and shift their bias. If you can read the map and execute, you'll make a lot of money. Otherwise, you can only make money if you're lucky, and few are particularly lucky, since we're all just mortals. There's some problems with the "more uppy for more longer" theory. A core factor is that the beginning of July marked a quarterly shift, and the entire month has been even more up. There are now only August and September remaining. If it's not SPX 5,500 coming this year, the reversal is probably going to be violent, it stands to reason. Another really crucial core factor is the geopolitical situation between the International Rules Based Order, which Washington ostensibly heads, and the Chinese government under Xi Jinping. A really noticeable characteristic of all the clamoring in the propaganda machine is that they never go after "The Chinese Communist Party," they always go after "China" and Xi. You should always remember this adage: "China is not the CCP." You should always remember that when someone is attacking the world's only 5,000 year old culture and nation, the world's largest and most rich in natural resources and talent, they're likely to be Fabians. Although Xi is, and has been for a decade, the leader of the CCP, the most notable thing about him is that he has never persecuted Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners, who have been subjected to organ harvesting genocide under the edict of former Chairman Jiang Zemin starting July 20, 1999. In fact, Xi has actually protected Falun Gong in Hong Kong, hitting thugs who target the practice's spiritual cultivators with the Anti-corruption Campaign, after the National Security Law and John Lee were installed as Chief Executive. It's notable that John Lee has been denied entry to San Francisco for the APEC economic summit in November by Joe Biden, on that account. All of this is to say the geopolitical chatter you hear on "China" is a disaster waiting to happen with "Taiwan." Speaking of Taiwan, I really believe that TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation) is a significantly potent long to hedge with if the U.S. equities market goes sideways: ]TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge But "Taiwan War" does not mean that Xi is going to invade. The CCP is heavily weakened from the pandemic and in no position to be attacking an island that will become the Ukraine proxy war, but on a whole other level. If Xi were really an idiot, the IRBO and the Jiang Faction would have been able to kill him years ago. Instead, the CCP is about to fall, and what the IRBO is looking to do is depose Xi and replace him with a submissive and groomed toady from Taiwan, Maidan Revolution style (see Oliver Stone's film Ukraine on Fire). If Xi is smart, he will weaponize the persecution of Falun Gong to defend China and himself, because Wall Street and the world government have been continuously going to Shanghai to train Marxism with the Jiangling toads, which means bloodying their hands in the persecution as "insurance." Google the Neil Heywood story and give it some sober thought. Back to price action and trading on the most important index right now: other risks are that both the Nasdaq and the Dow also took out the same pivot, and reacted in identical ways: Another is that the VIX, which is already anomalously low, but won't print a single digit handle, has printed higher lows, followed by a breakout and retracement: While 10-Year Treasury bonds, important because they represent the "Risk Free Rate," meaning huge, long term money can park cash here instead of taking risk in equities, look like a nightmare. (Rates up = bonds down) It looks like a nightmare because Jerome Powell again said during the Q&A portion of the FOMC press conference that the inflation target is 2% while it's still 3.8% (What's 90% among friends?), that rate cuts aren't coming, and further pausing is totally contingent on economic data being spectacular in favour of deflation. (Is not happening). And all of the above is confirmed by the US Dollar Index's higher time frame candles showing the dump under 100.00 was really just a raid, and we're about to get our upside to 108+ on. So, here's what I expect to happen as soon as Monday: I believe, based on the price action that unfolded Thursday and Friday of this week, that the market makers will take advantage of Monday, July 31 to print the high of the month, breaking the 4,630 level to roughly 4,650. This will kill all the short traders who entered early and shorted Friday, and bring in a great number of breakout traders. I am anticipating (the key word is anticipating!) this will be a major bull trap and price will reverse. The confirmation will be if price does retrace and takes the 4,544 level. If so, this is no longer a dip to buy, and entering shorts on retrace will be difficult because the market makers are likely to reprice aggressively away from their trap at the top. It may seem like a dump to 4,544 compared to 4,557 isn't very significant, being 13 points after all, forming just another "higher highs lower lows" expansion pattern. But what taking 4,544 shows, in reality, is that the biggest money now wants to take sell stops and begin to capitalize on "The Big Short." The first target for August, if this pans out, will be the 4,411.25 level. It looks really far away on the chart, but it's only 200 points. Only 5 percent. Compared to last year's volatility and ranges, it's not really that big of a deal, especially for a while month. You've just been Pavloved to follow the ring of a bell. Moreover, the 4,411 level is also July's low. A factor that I believe may lead to the destruction of the markets is latent malignancy in the banking sector, with Charles Schwab being the standout problem, I chronicle below: Charles Schwab - The Harbinger Of The Next Crisis? A lot of people are going to kill themselves buying the dip and getting stopped out and buying the dip again and getting stopped out again, if this all transpires according to the thesis. And people who don't use stops are going to get gapped down on. And those gap downs will be runaways that don't come back this time. Equities bulls are going to get gapped on like every day and have Barstool Sports Dave Portnoy '22-style meltdowns. However, if all of this does not transpire and price continues to reach over 4,700, then we can only say that the target the market makers really aspire for is ALL the liquidity over the 2021 all time highs circa 4,800. What we have is dueling possibilities, one far more likely than the other: topping being a lot more likely than a new all time high because the the environment is one where the Fed Funds Rate is going to be 6%+ by year end. But we need price action to confirm the theory. All of the above is my gift to you, as readers, followers, and even trolls. Our human race and this Planet Earth may really be in for an "early autumn" this year. The implications will shock not only the equities markets, but every aspect of our daily lives. I wish you all a bright future, but you have to believe and execute before you can see and harvest fruit. It's up to the individual to cultivate their hearts and minds accordingly.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LordWrymouth
9
Amazon - Greed, Just Like Speed, KillsFirst, I understand that Amazon had an excellent earnings report, whether analyst estimates were gamed to the downside and it was easy to beat notwithstanding. What you have to be really careful of right now is the excess greed that abounds in the markets. Greed is the thing that kills accounts the fastest, and when you blow your account, there won't be any use for TradingView anymore, and nobody will be able to have fun until you can save up to reload. I am not saying any kind of bearish commentary on Amazon, although you should have reservations on this company because a lot of its business model is just to serve as an export faucet for stuff made in the Chinese Communist Party's land. And you have to be careful with anyone whose business is tightly knit to communist China, because the International Rules Based Order is chattering disaster about "de-risking" from China. Because the narrative about "Taiwan Invasion" really means that the CCP is close to falling and everyone is thinking about how to take control of that country. But to take control of China, you need someone Chinese, which means you need a handpicked appointment from the Republic of China who will serve the globalists. All this, and the 24th year of persecution against Falun Dafa by the CCP's Jiang Zemin faction just completed on July 20. In 1999, Jiang began a full genocide and organ harvesting campaign against 100 million spiritual believers, and it's persisted to this day despite Xi Jinping never participating. In fact, Xi's Anti-corruption Campaign has been hitting the corrupt officials involved in the persecution ever since he took power in 2012. Consider that the next time you see the media going off about what a Mao Zedong Xi Jinping is. Amazon's monthly provides some clarity. The most notable thing is that the 2021-2022 distribution bars during the rest of the market's bull run indicates a proper and clear topping pattern. And despite that, price never took out the most critical of lows, the COVID pivot at $81.30. Instead, it spared it by 13 cents. Because numerology. What it means is that long term, $80 becomes a target. What's notable about price action before today's earnings report pump is that Amazon maintained the July low, albeit barely. And this creates three weekly lows of equal "support." Which also becomes a target. Bear in mind, with Nonfarm Payrolls also being tomorrow morning, you may get yourself a trade setup that looks something like what happened to AMD on Wednesday: AMD - Greed Doth Bad Habits Breed When its ER came in hot in premarket and at open, and turned into a huge sell off and red day: So the point with this call is to say that the August '22 $146 pivot may really hold. And if it doesn't hold, it might just get raided. Which makes buying the top tomorrow morning something that isn't a particularly intelligent thing to do. Worse, it means that buying the dip may be trading in the wrong direction, while selling the dump's retrace might actually be an optimal short entry. Just keep in mind that we may have as much as another 2-3% of downside left in the SPX before we retrade towards/take out the tops: SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg If the markets really get blown to pieces heading into the end of Q3 in accordance with the JP Morgan collar, stuff like Amazon is going to head to a 5-handle by next year. SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' You'll know the truth, in my opinion, when Amazon breaks the $125 flat bottoms, price won't come back, just like what happened with Netflix: Netflix - I Hope You Like Catching Knives What I really want to tell you all is that life still seems stable, it seems like all there is to worry about is making money and entertainment. But our world may very well change overnight, with no warning at all. And what we've all done while the cards were still face down will be what determines who wins the pot and who loses their stack.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by LordWrymouth
Microsoft Challenges Fib 3.618 levelMicrosoft - NASDAQ:MSFT Expectations were beat across the board today but what does the long term monthly chart tell us? All is revealed in the chart. This is a key moment for NASDAQ:MSFT and a pull back or break through to established new highs wouldn't surprise. I'm happy to wait for the confirmations outlined in the chart. That MACD cross though looks appealing. Earnings Summary - Profits jumped 20% to 20.1 b - EPS: $2.69 / Exp $2.56 - Revenue: $56.19B / Exp $55.49B - Azure (cloud) revenue up 26% / Exp 27%
NASDAQ:MSFT
by PukaCharts
Microsoft - Is The Top Already In?One of the key points to Microsoft is it is, in essence, a U.S. state-backed corporation, and one that is trading at more than $2.5 trillion market cap at present. You're looking at a company that just set a new all time high while the overall market is not healthy and the macroeconomic fundamentals are actually bearish. And so, we have to seriously ask ourselves if it's time to short God the top. Microsoft's price action on the monthly is curious. The price action is healthy and natural all the way from where it bounces to the top, and only becomes curiously strange when it gets to the top. Why does a stock that bounces at the right place and forms a fully proper reversal pattern, which we see on the weekly: Only sweep the All Time High? Why doesn't it raid the ATH and run bigly larger like NVDIA did? Well, the answer is actually quite clear when you overlay NVDA to MSFT: In essence, NVDA at $480-450 is MSFT at $350. The difference in price action you see today is because NVDA was relatively weaker in the past, meaning MSFT was inordinately strong in the past. Anything that reaches an extreme will reverse. If it reaches the extreme twice, it will reverse hard twice. The geopolitical situation in the world is not healthy. There is a ton of sabre rattling between NATO and the Nation of China at the moment. The western propaganda machine wants you to believe that Xi Jinping intends to invade Taiwan because he's very evil very super Mao Zedong++, but in reality it's more like the "International Rules Based Order" wants to use the fact that the Chinese Communist Party is rotten and unforgivable as a handle to depose Xi and have Taiwan invade the Mainland under the guise of international "aide". Why this matters to you as a trader is because you're flirting with getting gapped down hard since Beijing daytime is New York night time. If you want to be long right now you need to be hedged long volatility, or you're risking your life. Moreover, Xi, in order to defend himself, his faction of Chinese nationalists, and China's 5,000 year history, can overthrow the CCP in a Gorbachev-style coup overnight, weaponizing the 24-year-long persecution and genocide of Falun Dafa by the faction belonging to former Chairman Jiang Zemin (it died this year). The significance is major to traders because your beloved governments, banks, and corporations have stained their hands crimson flirting with the Jiang faction toadies in Shanghai (Babylon) in order to get all the benefits they desire. Google the Neil Heywood story if you want to see a classic example of a British billionaire getting gibbed by the greatest evil of all time. Much to do before the call's key points. Before we continue, I examine the price action I expect to manifest in SPY (SPX Futures ETF) for the remainder of the month, which can serve as something of a compass for what lies ahead: SPY - A Dip Is Coming. Maybe Buy It? Back to MSFT: This is a very hard setup to trade Because the June high may have been a hard top, double and triple top or not (See TSLA July-September '22) Lower lows lower highs indicates the dip is hard to buy But the short may only take us to the $320 range. Sweeping $300 is the key to a bullish continuation above the highs Maintaining ~$280 is the key to continuing upwards at all. Microsoft has a really notable catalyst in that its earnings are on July 25 postmarket, which means price action will manifest the morning of July 26, which just so happens to be when the next FOMC meeting is. After July FOMC the next FOMC is deferred until September 20, 9 days short of quarter end, notable because of the notorious JPM Collar, which I discuss here: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' What I expect is we see a fairly violent correction on Microsoft back to the $300s before we can see any kind of further meaningful flirtation with a run over the $350 ATH. But the June high may have been the top for the foreseeable future, as evidenced by the relationship between NVDA and MSFT. Be careful. The time we have left for happy and normal days is so short you can almost count it on the fingers. When things really emerge, Nasdaq 8,500 will be the least of your concerns, really.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by LordWrymouth
1
Netflix - I Hope You Like Catching KnivesNetflix is that $200 billion company trading at $441.44 that everyone seem to have forgot about, even though it more than doubled in a year. Personally, I think these streaming services are a colossal waste of your time and money. What you're watching is the intellectual equivalent of a Big Mac or a bag of potato chips, and permeated with the things of socialism and atheism. And Netflix is really quite woke and some of the content is unforgivably degenerate. You shouldn't look at warped mirrors and shouldn't cast your eyes on ugly things, or they'll twist your heart and your soul. When it comes to the markets-at-large, I believe we're definitely going to see a correction, rather than a new all time high, which I detail in the two calls below: Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' If there's to be a new all time high, let's wait and see what Q4 has in store for us. There's a lot of geopolitical risk in the markets right now. The War between the Russian Federation and NATO via Ukraine is a big one, and a bigger one is the situation in Mainland China with Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party. More or less, I believe the globalists want to topple the Party to have their men from Taiwan go in and take control of China and depose Xi. But I believe Xi is likely to topple the Party himself before that can happen. Big gaps will come that day and things will be very hard because Wall Street won't be in any kind of a risk-on mood. The 24-year persecution against Falun Dafa launched by former Chairman Jiang Zemin and the Shanghai toad faction is something Xi can weaponize to implicate the entire world. Because to do business in Shanghai you've needed the Jiang Faction's approval. To get its approval, you've had to dirty your hands in the persecution and swear vows to the Flag of Blood. And unfortunately, most of the world has wanted what the Party has. Read the story of British billionaire Neil Heywood, who decided to court Jiang's minion Bo Xilai. Bo told Heywood that to prove his loyalty he had to divorce his wife. Heywood refused, and so Bo's wife poisoned him. Heywood died in 2011. Bo Xilai was ruined in Xi's Anti-corruption Campaign in 2013, stripped of all his assets, and sentenced to life in prison in a CCP dungeon. Gambling with the Party is one foot in the grave and the other in prison. Live a virtuous life instead. Moreover, they always say zoom out. Looking at Netflix on the yearly, it's hard to say you're not in the crosshairs of a savage trend reversal. And you can see these daily bars far more clearly on the weekly chart: There might be that fat gap above that you have your eye on, but you're dealing with a very long and very steep ramp in the first place, and this is in a stock which stayed away from a true gap between April and August of '22. Another notable factor is that the FINRA short volume for Netflix, while still notably low, is the highest it's been in three months and posted its first green month since April and only its second of '23. Short volume This is quite notable in light of the fact that June was one of the best months for equities in a long time Netflix doesn't have an ETF, except for a 3x levered ETF on the Mexico exchange. Insignificant except for it fell from 5 pesos to 5 pennies. What's sad is even if it Netflix was to fall 50% in value the thing would still only be worth like 30 cents. % base levered ETFs will kill you. So, here's the call. Netflix printed a proper daily pivot in mid June (you'll have to look yourself because I can't zoom the chart in for the post) and has been flirting inside that range ever since. If she makes a new high I suppose then it's time for more uppy and you can buy calls at the top and feel pretty good. But if she breaks the $420 range the next area to watch is the June low, which Netflix printed on a green candle and on the first day of the month at $393 After that, things might happen and happen fast. If bearish momentum and level breaking manifests, then where I believe it will return to is the $180 to $160 range. For Netflix to have a chance to return above $500, it will have to hold the $162.71 bottom. If you can catch that falling knife you'll feel pretty smart if you can hold the bag for a few months. But if you try to go long before the bottom you'll cut your hands and cut your hands some more.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by LordWrymouth
6
ES SPX Futures - Welcome to FOMCmageddonIn reading the title of this post, I'm sure you can tell what I want to say. Since the new habit is to guffaw and lmao at any thesis that isn't bullish, because "we" all "know" US equities "always go up" and a new all time high is "in store," I'd like to point out the Nasdaq already shows signs of having topped. That July 20, 2023 candle was some 2%+ in range and on absolutely no news. And yet the SPX has not yet taken its equivalent intermediate term high. The significance of the intermediate term highs that the Nasdaq took and the SPX is probably about to take is that they represent the March of 2022 failure swing. Why does it matter? Because that swing and its destruction was the trumpet-backed announcement that the Coronavirus Disease 2019 stimmie QE bull run had come to an end. And so coming back to raid it at a time when Big Jerome Powell openly told reporters at the last FOMC meeting that no rate cuts were scheduled AND that inflation would take years, not months, to come back to levels they regard as apropos, is a very dangerous situation. The thing about tops and bottoms is that whoever calls them is always wrong, because you can only see a top or a bottom on hindsight. In the interim, as they unfold, you can only anticipate that at a certain key price level, over a certain high or a certain low, that reversal patterns might manifest. The geopolitical situation is very sharp. I note in a new call that oil is likely headed for a literal 3 handle this year. Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins And I note that the US Dollar Index is due for a rally to at least 108. DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia The cornerstone of the international chessboard is now, and always has been, Mainland China and its 5,000 year old country and culture, which has been ruined by the Chinese Communist Party over the course of its century of insanity. What's going on in the equities market is heavily wedded to the "War With Taiwan" narrative being espoused by the propaganda machine, which I discuss in my call on Taiwan Semiconductor TSM, a company that I believe is a significant long hedge during a potential upcoming downtrend. TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge So as for this week's call, I would like to note that, unlike the Nasdaq, the SPX has not raided its March '22 intermediate high. This high at 4,631 happens to coincide with the new "JP Morgan Chase Collar," where one of the SIB's big funds sold calls at 4,665. I discuss this collar below: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' Something to understand about the big banks' business model is this: The first thing is that when they sell calls at a certain level, there is a buyer, and that buyer might be their clients. Their clients may have paid the bank the standard 10% fee in exchange for providing the liquidity. The reason the client would buy calls that JPM sells at a 10% premium is because they understand that the market will be made, in exchange, for those calls to be made worth more than they paid. Those calls were purchased at the end of June when the indexes traded circa 4,400. Why would JPM sell the calls and get themselves underwater? Because by September 29, Q3 end, they won't be underwater anymore, for one. For two, they're hedged long and are making money on the way up on the hedge. So they get to make money on the hedge, the calls ultimately expire worthless, and the client is happy because they got a big bag of cheap options at 4,400 to dump on the head of retail and Cathie Wood-style funds at 4,660. And all of this is to say that the 4,631 failure swing/pivot is very likely to be raided, and it is likely to be raided on Wednesday, FOMC day. During Monday's trade session, we will find out a lot about the intentions of the MMs. I believe they will only raid the 4,544 level on Monday market open, making it a buying opportunity to sell 100 points higher. However, if ES/SPX is to dump significantly to under 4,500 again, it stands to reason that the real target is the 4,800 ATH somewhere early in August. But I think, for a lot of reasons, this is just so less likely. Thus, SPX is likely to raid 4,544, which is to say the 4,550 psychological level, and trade over the 4,650 psychological level before Jerome Powell starts yapping. This FOMC is really significant because there isn't another rate hike until September, the end of Q3. So the trade is to long 4,540, sell it allllll at 4,650, and the target is under where JPM went long on puts and has been under water all month under 4,200 heading into the end of August and middle of September.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LordWrymouth