Microstrategy
MICROSTRATEGY: Hit the 1D MA50 and bounced, but is it a buy now?MSTR has made a rapid turn from overbought to neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.944, MACD = 14.210, ADX = 17.986) as it reached today a -40% decline from its ATH but eventually hit the 1D MA50 and rebounded. This is the first contact with the 1D MA50 since September 19th. Even though it seems like a strong technical buy opportunity, Microstrategy has had its best buy entries in the last 2 years, under the 1D MA50. As this chart shows there have been 8 such buy signals, so even though the current rebound is tempting, we ideally want to see the price under the 1D MA50 and $300 before issuing a buy signal. Once this is filled, we can target the December 5th High minimum (TP = 400).
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MSTR: Prime Opportunity for a Rebound as Buyers Take Control Bullish Analysis for MSTR:
MicroStrategy (MSTR) has recently dropped alongside the broader crypto market, but strong buying momentum is emerging as buyers step in to buy the dip . The RSI is coming back from oversold levels, signaling potential for a rebound. As Bitcoin stabilizes and recovers, MSTR’s stock is likely to benefit from both the crypto rebound and its solid business fundamentals.
Trade Setup:
Take Profit 1: $370
Take Profit 2: $430
Stop Loss: $310
This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward opportunity, with MSTR potentially poised for a bullish reversal.
MICROSTRATEGY a pyramid ponzi.Understanding the situation with MSTR can be quite complex.
Many people recognize that MicroStrategy has been issuing convertible bonds at a 0% interest rate to purchase Bitcoin. This strategy tends to drive up both Bitcoin's price and the value of MSTR shares.
As a result, the scheme appears to inflate continuously, placing the risk on bondholders. The only way for MSTR's stock price to keep rising is through the issuance of increasingly larger amounts of convertible debt; otherwise, the entire pyramid would collapse.
It's understandable why Michael Saylor seems to be focusing more on shilling MSTR bonds instead of Bitcoin itself.
Why would institutions invest in MSTR's convertible bonds at 0%?
Many believe it's because they anticipate being able to convert these bonds into MSTR stock in five years at a predetermined price, potentially around $675, effectively giving them a premium-free call option. However, there is a hidden cost to this strategy: inflation. At first glance, this might seem like a poor investment choice—if one expects MSTR's value to rise, it would make more sense to buy the shares now rather than commit funds to a higher price in the future.
Why would anyone engage in such a massive financial manoeuvre involving BILLIONS?
The truth is, those purchasing the bonds are ACTUALLY indifferent to the rising stock value! Their primary interest lies in capitalizing on price fluctuations. Ultimately, a convertible bond functions as a CALL OPTION; thus, as the MSTR stock price experiences greater volatility, the premium on the call increases. Recently the value of these convertible bonds has surged by 170%. This is precisely why investors are unconcerned about interest rates or the actual conversion of the bonds—they have ZERO desire to convert! The reason? Issuing new shares would only dilute their holdings!
All the rewards with none of the risks!
But what happens if MSTR collapses? Bondholders will seize all the Bitcoin MSTR possesses, leaving shareholders with nothing but scraps!
Can you fathom how deep this MSTR Ponzi scheme really is?
The more you explore, the more mental acrobatics you need to perform to grasp the situation!
Many believe that bond buyers are naive, but in reality, they are the sharpest players in the game, reaping the benefits without facing the risks! In the current climate, that’s the nature of volatility! It doesn’t matter if MSTR’s stock price fluctuates; they’re insulated from the fallout. Who do you think is betting against MSTR? It’s the bondholders, and their positions are secure!
Ultimately, for someone to profit, someone else must incur a loss, and it won’t be the bondholders. This means that regular shareholders are poised for significant losses, as the primary force driving MSTR’s stock price is its own volatility. Once that volatility dissipates, we could see MSTR plummet below $100 a share! All those crypto enthusiasts will be left reeling, wondering how MSTR could possibly decline while Bitcoin’s value rises!!!
What’s the main effect of these convertible bonds?
They create volatility in the stock price, leading to wild swings up and down, just as we’re currently witnessing.
What occurs when the volatility subsides?
The stock price will plummet!
Many people are misdirecting their focus on metrics, technical analysis, and listening to Michael Saylor's commentary on CNBC. Instead, they should be paying attention to the volatility of MSTR's stock price, as its decline will directly impact the stock's value.
Don't be misled; even if MSTR falls below $300, it will still be overpriced and could potentially drop to under $100 per share due to the convertible bonds scheme. Claims from MSTR valuation sites that each share is backed by a certain amount of Bitcoin are misleading; the reality is that the shares are not backed by anything.
The BONDHOLDERS are the ones who possess all the Bitcoin.
There’s no such thing as a free lunch—someone has to bear the costs, and in MSTR's case, that burden will fall on the shareholders. You certainly don’t want to be left holding the bag when the music stops.
It is important to maintain a clear perspective regarding cryptocurrencies; they should not be viewed as traditional investments, but rather as something more comparable to gambling.
While you may have the advantage of being an expert poker player, the only way to truly win is to cash out your profits.
Otherwise, you risk losing on MSTR and in the crypto market.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock Price Surged Over 60% in NovemberMicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock Price Surged Over 60% in November
According to the MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) stock chart:
→ At the start of November, the stock price was around $244;
→ Last Friday, it closed just below $395;
→ This represents a more than 60% increase in MSTR’s price over the month, making it one of the top performers on the U.S. stock market;
→ At its peak on 21 November, the stock traded above $520, reflecting a 115% surge in just three weeks.
Two key drivers supported the bullish sentiment:
1. Bitcoin holdings by MicroStrategy.
According to Benzinga, the company owns nearly 2% of the global Bitcoin supply, a figure projected to rise to 4% by 2023. The current surge in BTC/USD towards $100,000 has significantly increased MicroStrategy's value. Co-founder Michael Saylor stated that the company earns an average of $500 million daily from its Bitcoin investments.
2. Market capitalisation milestones.
In November, MicroStrategy's market capitalisation exceeded $100 billion for the first time. On this note, Seeking Alpha highlighted the potential for MicroStrategy's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index. This could prompt large funds tracking the index to purchase MSTR shares for their portfolios.
Technical analysis of MSTR’s price chart indicates that since mid-September, price fluctuations have formed an ascending channel (marked in blue).
The decline from point A to B appears overly steep to be classified as a strict correction within the uptrend, which followed the achievement of extreme overbought conditions (visible on the RSI indicator).
While the stock rebounded upwards upon reaching the lower boundary of the channel (point B), the question remains whether the bulls can replicate November’s extraordinary success.
Buyers should exercise caution based on bearish price action around psychological levels:
→ The price failed to hold above $500.
→ On 22 November, the $450 level acted as resistance.
Meanwhile, according to TipRanks:
→ All 8 surveyed analysts recommend buying MSTR stock.
→ The average price target for MSTR is $494 within the next 12 months.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Crypto Stonks Are Booming! Top Crypto Stocks to Watch NowFrom Memecoins to Mega Stocks
While crypto traders have been focused on finding the next big memecoins like Doge , crypto-related stocks have also been performing well this year. In today’s analysis, we’ll dive into some crypto related stocks you might want to keep an eye on
1. Coinbase ( NASDAQ:COIN )
First on our list is Coinbase, the top US crypto exchange with a market cap of $48 billion. Since its IPO in April 2021, Coinbase has gained a reputation as a trusted exchange known for its regulatory compliance.
Besides its exchange services, Coinbase offers a self custody wallet popular among the crypto community, with over 10 million downloads. In February 2023, Coinbase launched its own layer 2 blockchain, Base , which has since recorded over $1 billion in total value locked and averages daily transaction volumes of over $400 million.
Coinbase has also played a part in advancing spot Bitcoin ETF approvals, forming a surveillance-sharing agreement with the Chicago Board Options Exchange in July 2023. Additionally, Coinbase partnered with **Stripe** in June to boost the global adoption of USDC. This partnership enables crypto payouts and a fiat-to-crypto onramp, making it easier for users to buy crypto with credit cards and Apple Pay through Coinbase Wallet. Coin is up over 350% since our first signal
2. MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR )
Next up is MicroStrategy, with a market cap of $26 billion. Known for its business analytics software, cloud services, and AI-powered analytics, MicroStrategy is more famous for its Bitcoin holdings, driven by the advocacy of Executive Chairman Michael Saylor.
Under Saylor's leadership, MicroStrategy became the first public company to adopt Bitcoin as a strategic investment in August 2020, citing its potential as a store of value. The company accumulated over 121,000 BTC by late 2021 and continued adding to its holdings, despite price volatility and leverage risks. As of 2024, MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings have reached 226,500 BTC, and the company’s stock hit new all time highs, demonstrating its strong correlation with Bitcoin's performance. Mstr is 100% up since our first signal
3. Block ( NYSE:SQ )
Formerly known as Square, Block is a fintech company founded by Jack Dorsey and Jim McKelvey, with a market cap of $38 billion. Starting with small-business payment solutions like Square POS, Block launched **Cash App** in 2013 to provide a user-friendly platform for consumers, competing with services like PayPal and Venmo.
Cash App generates revenue through transaction fees, subscription payments, and Bitcoin sales. It even supports the Lightning Network for quick Bitcoin transactions. Beyond payments, Block owns a majority stake in Tidal, a music streaming service, showing its diverse portfolio.
4. Robinhood ( NASDAQ:HOOD )
Lastly, we have Robinhood, with a market cap of over $15 billion. Founded in 2013 by Stanford graduates Vladimir Tenev and Baiju Bhatt, Robinhood became known for its free, user-friendly trading app, which gained significant popularity during the COVID19 pandemic
Robinhood found itself in the spotlight during the 2021 GameStop and WallStreetBets saga, where it faced backlash for restricting trades on memestocks like $GME. This led to a lawsuit and a $70 million penalty from FINRA for misleading customers and service outages. Despite this, Robinhood continues to grow, boasting 23.9 million funded accounts and nearly $130 billion in assets under custody as of May 2024.
Robinhood has made some notable moves recently, including acquiring Pluto Capital, which provides AI-driven investment advice, and securing a deal to acquire crypto exchange Bitstamp.
Wrap up
If you’re wondering about Bitcoin mining stocks, don’t worry we had a separate analysis just for that. Crypto Bull market just started and be ready for more analysis
which stock or crypto coins you are bullish now and why?
It’s Not Over Yet for $MSTR: New highs in Q1Looking at MicroStrategy NASDAQ:MSTR
I’m watching the $320-$330 range for a potential buy opportunity. This zone represents key support, and I believe it could be an ideal entry point for a potential bounce if it holds.
If that price zone fails to hold, I will be potentially looking to add below $300 to fill the gap.
Waiting RoomThe $100k BTC mark has been a mythological target for crypto traders for a very long time. It felt so near back in 2021, yet proved to be so far. In the end, we even went below $20k again before going back up this year. When you are reading this, 1 Bitcoin might well already be worth over $100,000. But for now, over the past 24h, it has continued to remain tantalisingly close to the magic number. Crossing this price point would be yet another major milestone in a year that has already seen the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. It is now a waiting game.
Once that $100k threshold will be inevitably crossed, all eyes will be set on what is next. Of course, as usual in moments of euphoria, crypto bulls compete with each other to set ever higher price targets. Will MIL:1M be the next one? Or is $500k already big enough? Many Bitcoiners will argue that the next target is gold Market Cap parity. After all, Bitcoin claims to be the digital gold with all of gold's benefits such as scarcity but with far easier movability and programmability on top. Gold's current market cap is $18 trillion. Bitcoin's market cap in the meantime is at around $2 trillion. The potential upside if this thesis plays out still seems juicy, particularly for traditional funds and investors who value Bitcoin's 'established' status as macro asset.
One of the main characters in the current market environment remains Michael Saylor, founder of Microstrategy (MSTR). Microstrategy is a legacy tech company that had seen its previous all-time high before the dotcom bubble burst in 2000. Since starting to accumulate Bitcoin in 2020, Michael Saylor has turned MSTR into a leveraged proxy for the Bitcoin price. Over the years, Microstrategy has sold additional shares and then used the proceeds of those sales to purchase Bitcoin. In addition, the company issues convertible debt offerings at 0% interest and uses the funds to buy more Bitcoin. These offerings are appealing to institutional investors because they offer exposure to Bitcoin while limiting the downside risk. The company's 2027 convertible bond, which also has 0% interest rate, trades 200% over par. MSTR's stock as well as its convertible bonds are now proxies of Bitcoin exposure. Microstrategy's Bitcoin holdings now stand at 331,200 BTC, worth $30.4 billion. This is almost 1.6% the entire Bitcoin supply. Meanwhile, the company's market cap is at $80 billion, showing a more than 2x premium over the company's Bitcoin holdings.
Many traders of course are deeply sceptical about this setup. Too much post-traumatic stress from the 2022 blowup not just of Luna/Terra but also of the Grayscale trade remains. For those who do not remember, the Grayscale Bitcoin fund was a pre-ETF Bitcoin fund that was open to traditional investors. It was essentially a proxy for holding Bitcoin. For years, it traded at a premium. Funds, such as Three Arrow Capital, would leverage up on Bitcoin, deposit into the fund and then sell fund shares at a premium. But when the premium flipped negative in 2021, it signalled the beginning of the end for many overleveraged funds and traders. The case of MSTR seems somewhat different, but traders should watch the amount of leverage at play and which direction the MSTR premium over Bitcoin will go for an indication of the market cycle.
Whichever way this goes, it certainly does fill like the markets still have room to run. So for now we all remain in the $100,000 Waiting Room. It should not be much longer from here.
MSTR Alert: Trend Reversal Sparks October Rally!The NASDAQ:MSTR chart has just triggered a weekly signal, marking the first time we’ve seen a reversal signal alongside a fresh trend signal right at the range lows.
The trend appears healthy, and if October mirrors the previous months, I expect a rise in the crypto markets. While I'm not overly optimistic about Bitcoin's price movements just yet, I’ll be satisfied as long as it finishes the month positively.
A valid reclaim of $150 would lend significant strength to the uptrend.
Invalidation is set at $119, so manage your risk wisely.
For take-profit areas, consider $270 and $540 once the upward movement begins.
Keep in mind that ETF flows have been zero or negative, while NASDAQ:MSTR has been purchasing an average of $70M in BTC daily over the past week. MicroStrategy typically buys during bear markets or significant retracements. The key thing to watch now is how the market reacts once this buying subsides.
MICROSTRATEGY’S COMEBACK: HOW BITCOIN RESCUED A TECH GIANT Did you know? NASDAQ:MSTR was once the darling of the 90s tech boom, but spent TWO DECADES in decline after the bubble burst. 📉
That all changed when @saylor made the boldest bet in corporate history—he turned to Bitcoin. 💡 By selling equity, he fueled NASDAQ:MSTR 's massive BTC acquisition, and now? The stock has charged back towards its all-time highs after two decades. 📈
Critics called it reckless, but Saylor's vision was clear: Bitcoin would save the company. Now, he's vindicated—and MicroStrategy is thriving again
This is the power of conviction and bold moves in the face of doubt. 😤💯
The future will be built on decentralized technology and there is nothing better than BTC & DOGE 🧡 🚀
MSTR - 2024's Best High Beta PlayAfter entering NASDAQ:MSTR at $200 in January of 2023, it is evident that MicroStrategy shines as the ideal stock to generate profit day after day. Given its high beta nature and volatility based on Bitcoin's movement, we can price NASDAQ:MSTR in a manner that is fixed to Bitcoin's price.
The reasoning is that MicroStrategy believes, and has believed, that CRYPTOCAP:BTC is the most appropriate store of value now and in the future.
It appears that they may be correct.
I am anticipating NASDAQ:MSTR to surpass $1750-1775 and reach $2,000.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC should hit $75,000 at that point.
This is where I will decide to sell off some shares in anticipation of a price correction down to $800-$1250 per share of $MSTR. At this time, I believe Bitcoin will fall to 52K to 55K. It should, in order to make sense, considering liquidity in the market.
As of 3/13/2024, it costs $42,000-$47,000 USD to mine 1 CRYPTOCAP:BTC , based on the average cost of electricity globally.
I believe we will see a very common "sell the news" event come April prior to, or during, the halving. Bitcoin will correct.
The halving will double the complexity to mine one Bitcoin, which will push the electricity cost to the range of $84,000-$95,000 USD.
This will be the next gap up, and Bitcoin will continue to reach historical highs.
Stay tuned.
MicroStrategy is buying additional $42 billion worth of BTCMicroStrategy announced its plans to buy more Bitcoin: $42 billion worth of BTC.
Why does it matter to us? After the purchase, over 3% of the Bitcoin supply will be held by a single company. Other companies are also adding BTC to their balance sheet. Countries are also doing it. BUT Bitcoin is scarce.
So far, in total, NASDAQ:MSTR has invested $9.9B into Bitcoin; this investment will be more than 4x that figure.
MicroStrategy is currently valued at $50.11B, which means that BTC has been playing an important role in increasing shareholder value.
Michael Saylor announced "raising $42 billion of capital over the next 3 years, comprised of $21 billion of equity and $21 billion of fixed income securities".