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Microstrategy

Why MicroStrategy Will FailIf you listen to Michael Saylor, watch what he is doing with his financial engineering, and "learn about Bitcoin" it seems incredibly obvious that... MicroStrategy WILL NOT fail . At least, that is what I have been told by those that stand to gain massively from Bitcoin's price appreciation. It makes a lot of sense: corner the market of Bitcoin supply => force the price into "discovery" mode and everyone that believed in him and Bitcoin will be rich to the point they feel they deserve for being so prescient with their wisdom. The history of finance does not bode well for such absolute certainty... I began shorting Microstrategy with Puts over a year ago. "Being early and being wrong are often indistinguishable in trading/investing." I've lost money. But that did not dissuade me from calling BS on this scheme. Up until November 22, 2024 it had been a small trade that had not worked out so far. But on that day Saylor gave a CNBC interview (highly recommend looking it up) where he talked about their "core business", their "Bitcoin reactor", "selling volatility", and lots of complex financial jargon. To some, this might come across as brilliance. To me, having been in markets for a long time and studying their history it was patently obvious he was doing the classic, "if you can't amaze with brilliance then dazzle with bullshit" tactic. This was not a scam, nor a ponzi, nor a fraud... in absolute terms. We don't actually have a word for it. But it needs a derogatory term because people are going to lose money buying into it. I don't believe in karma. What I believe is that people cannot help be themselves and repeat their character flaws and patterns. This is not the first time Saylor has engaged in "financial engineering". Over 20 years ago MSTR (same company, same symbol) got caught by the SEC for doing much the same thing a Enron in their accounting practices. They were levied a big fine and the stock dropped -60% in a single day. Roughly two weeks later... the entire dot-com bubble imploded. Was MSTR the catalyst for this collapse? Unknown. But it certainly did not help keep the bubble going... Once again Saylor is exploiting the financial system. Or as gamers would call it; "clever use of game mechanics." There is nothing illegal about what he is doing (that is apparent). It's all out in the open. But it's leverage. Lots of leverage. MSTR ran out of simple debt and have found other ways to make cash to buy Bitcoin. Every week they keep "buying the top" as cheerleaders for this asset; Bitcoin. Trying to get others to join in their crusade to... I guess get it to $1 million now. Still valuing it in fiat terms while claiming to be changing finance (do they still want to do that anymore with Blackrock being their best backer? Unknown. I left all my Bitcoin Maxi chats as part of a New Year's Resolution to argue less with people on the Internet after 2024. When I left I was still defending my short while they were eagerly buying the dip. With all investments... time will tell. The Trade I have been purchasing Puts in different traunches with different strikes going out all the way to 2027. These long term Puts have their theta offset by selling shorter duration options to keep myself theta positive. This has been great over the last 2 months with increased IV. During the recent drop to $285 I actually found myself delta positive for a day. I wanted to get "more short" and added as much risk as I felt comfortable on the last push up to $380. Now delta negative/theta positive. Where I stop out: $390 is a key volume profile level topside. If price gets back above there I consider myself wrong... for now... and start to unwind risk or hedge more How I manage: I will continue to manage my delta/theta as long as IV makes it fun while always trying to stay negative. Buy long dated puts on pops up; Sell some Puts on every move down. The goal is for MSTR's debt to start getting called this year and they be forced to make some hard choices. This may require Bitcoin and/or the equities market to collapse in 1-2 years. If so; MSTR will be hurt tremendously.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by norok
40
Insane volatility imminent conspiracyI've seen one other TA notice this parabolic base forming (pink area) which I believe we'll be exiting over the next few years. Maybe it will happen this bull cycle. However, I think it's also possible that this bull cycle will be somewhat lackluster, not exceeding $150k, before correcting down to the 80's with wild volatility. I think this will shake out A LOT of investors and now that we have the likes of Black Rock et al in the mix, it's my theory that they don't want us in at the bottoms they want us in as their exit liquidity. When BTC does exit this formation and is supported above it very briefly, we're going to see the proverbial 'god' candle with absolute vertical movement. This will likely be nation states and corporations finally having the eureka moment. And it will occur during the 'usual' bear market. As the title states, this is a conspiracy but it seems like a very plausible scenario. Of course there's fundamental theory laced in with TA which I shouldn't do here but we're living in wild times. Am I stupid? Let me know!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by stoneycrick
Bitcoin’s Deja Vu: A Bullish Flag Unfolds Towards a Historic ATHIn March 202 0, ( COINBASE:BTCUSD ) Bitcoin reached a low on Friday the 13th , forming a bullish flag pattern that initiated a new upward cycle. A similar formation appeared on August 5, 2024 , indicating the continuation of this bullish trend. Currently, Bitcoin is at the PR3 price level, establishing a base support around $108,923 . The next resistance is at QR1, approximately $197,491 . Upon reaching this level, a slight correction to around $145,669 is anticipated before continuing to the final all-time high (ATH) at QR2, set near $281,216 . From this peak, a significant correction to the correction support level (CS2) at $145,669 is expected. Analysts are optimistic about Bitcoin's trajectory. H.C. Wainwright forecasts a rise to $225,000 by the end of 2025 , considering historical price patterns and potential favorable regulatory changes under the Trump administration. Additionally, Standard Chartered projects Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2025, aligning with historical trends of major rallies post-U.S. presidential elections and following halving events. However, Bitcoin's inherent volatility remains a concern. Predictions suggest potential corrections of 15% to 30% during the bull run before reaching higher price targets. In conclusion, Bitcoin's current market structure and historical patterns indicate a bullish trajectory with potential significant price levels and corrections. Investors should remain vigilant and consider market volatility when making investment decisions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by insidermike
$MSTR sub $200 before $1000+?NASDAQ:MSTR looks pretty bearish here. We're trading under a key support and it looks like it wants lower. I think if the next candle turns red, then we're likely to see a large selloff all the way down to the lower supports. If we can make it back up above this support level at $363, and close above it, it would be a trigger long. Then I think we're likely to see a large run all the way up to the upper resistances to 1000+. Let's see how the price action unfolds here.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by benjihyam
2
MICROSTRATEGY a pyramid ponzi.Understanding the situation with MSTR can be quite complex. Many people recognize that MicroStrategy has been issuing convertible bonds at a 0% interest rate to purchase Bitcoin. This strategy tends to drive up both Bitcoin's price and the value of MSTR shares. As a result, the scheme appears to inflate continuously, placing the risk on bondholders. The only way for MSTR's stock price to keep rising is through the issuance of increasingly larger amounts of convertible debt; otherwise, the entire pyramid would collapse. It's understandable why Michael Saylor seems to be focusing more on shilling MSTR bonds instead of Bitcoin itself. Why would institutions invest in MSTR's convertible bonds at 0%? Many believe it's because they anticipate being able to convert these bonds into MSTR stock in five years at a predetermined price, potentially around $675, effectively giving them a premium-free call option. However, there is a hidden cost to this strategy: inflation. At first glance, this might seem like a poor investment choice—if one expects MSTR's value to rise, it would make more sense to buy the shares now rather than commit funds to a higher price in the future. Why would anyone engage in such a massive financial manoeuvre involving BILLIONS? The truth is, those purchasing the bonds are ACTUALLY indifferent to the rising stock value! Their primary interest lies in capitalizing on price fluctuations. Ultimately, a convertible bond functions as a CALL OPTION; thus, as the MSTR stock price experiences greater volatility, the premium on the call increases. Recently the value of these convertible bonds has surged by 170%. This is precisely why investors are unconcerned about interest rates or the actual conversion of the bonds—they have ZERO desire to convert! The reason? Issuing new shares would only dilute their holdings! All the rewards with none of the risks! But what happens if MSTR collapses? Bondholders will seize all the Bitcoin MSTR possesses, leaving shareholders with nothing but scraps! Can you fathom how deep this MSTR Ponzi scheme really is? The more you explore, the more mental acrobatics you need to perform to grasp the situation! Many believe that bond buyers are naive, but in reality, they are the sharpest players in the game, reaping the benefits without facing the risks! In the current climate, that’s the nature of volatility! It doesn’t matter if MSTR’s stock price fluctuates; they’re insulated from the fallout. Who do you think is betting against MSTR? It’s the bondholders, and their positions are secure! Ultimately, for someone to profit, someone else must incur a loss, and it won’t be the bondholders. This means that regular shareholders are poised for significant losses, as the primary force driving MSTR’s stock price is its own volatility. Once that volatility dissipates, we could see MSTR plummet below $100 a share! All those crypto enthusiasts will be left reeling, wondering how MSTR could possibly decline while Bitcoin’s value rises!!! What’s the main effect of these convertible bonds? They create volatility in the stock price, leading to wild swings up and down, just as we’re currently witnessing. What occurs when the volatility subsides? The stock price will plummet! Many people are misdirecting their focus on metrics, technical analysis, and listening to Michael Saylor's commentary on CNBC. Instead, they should be paying attention to the volatility of MSTR's stock price, as its decline will directly impact the stock's value. Don't be misled; even if MSTR falls below $300, it will still be overpriced and could potentially drop to under $100 per share due to the convertible bonds scheme. Claims from MSTR valuation sites that each share is backed by a certain amount of Bitcoin are misleading; the reality is that the shares are not backed by anything. The BONDHOLDERS are the ones who possess all the Bitcoin. There’s no such thing as a free lunch—someone has to bear the costs, and in MSTR's case, that burden will fall on the shareholders. You certainly don’t want to be left holding the bag when the music stops. It is important to maintain a clear perspective regarding cryptocurrencies; they should not be viewed as traditional investments, but rather as something more comparable to gambling. While you may have the advantage of being an expert poker player, the only way to truly win is to cash out your profits. Otherwise, you risk losing on MSTR and in the crypto market.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by BallaJi
47
$MSTR appears to have broken the downtrendStill not 100% confirmed yet. Price action dipped into the gap, although i would have liked to of seen a bit more time ~$275 to confirm That would have shown a strong bounce off the .618 Fib as well, so I’m still bit skeptical. It is very good that MSTR had a full 50% retracement tho from this move up. I’m expecting it to range sideways at least for a few more days to confirm. Volume has flipped bullish to suggest a trend reversal. RSI fully reset to beginning of move. Price closed above the EMA 9 & 21. EMA 9 still has not crossed 21, so more hesitation. Bulls need to step up BIG here for the Weekly Close.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by jonnieking
2
MICROSTRATEGY Is it shifting towards a new paradigm?Microstrategy (MSTR) is defying all odds during this bull run and recently it achieved perhaps its most important one: it broke above its All Time High (ATH) of $335.00 registered in March 2000. This historic feat took place on the same month (November) that it broke and closed above its historical Channel Up pattern, which has been dictating its trend since the bottom of the Dotcom Bubble correction in 2002. This is perhaps ushering a new era for the company. Along with Bitcoin it may be shifting to a new paradigm and the uptrend may be accelerated in a similar way as it did in 1998 - 2000. Technically we will be in a position to know that if the current pull-back bounces of the top of the former historic Channel Up. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by TradingShot
7
Microstrategy - Might Break Lower Chart Pattern - Lower Crypto?Micro-strategy is currently hovering around the lower breakout point of the current Pennant or Triangle chart pattern. If this is not a fake out, it could signal lower prices to come for crypto's across the board. If it holds, I expect it to move to the upper area of the pennant or triangle and if it breaks, we will see newer ATH for BTC and other Alt Coins. BTC and the other major Alt Coins are all holding just above chart patterns that signal lower prices to come, so I expect lower prices, but with this lower volume during the holidays, manipulation is very possible from smart money and the market makers. Trade carefully.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by swineninety9
BTC Long-Term Top Signals, Potentially Headed to $32k in 2026Bitcoin is currently exhibiting several long-term top signals, some of which stretch all the way back to 2019. Those include: Wave-D = (C+B)/2 in Time Wave-D = 0.618(B) in Price Waves a, b, c, f, and g are all time-similar forming a perfect diametric First Wiseman signals on Weekly, Monthly charts All three wisemen on Daily charts HUGE long-term momentum divergences on all long-term charts Manic market sentiment following Trump's promises and $100k prices (which he may not keep) I believe a deep, long-term bear market is highly likely from this point. It also appears that the stock market could be falling into a bear market as well. The invalidation for this forecast will be for BTC to make new all time highs. If we can reverse the wisemen signals and long-term time/price targets that have formed that would be extremely bullish, but at the moment that is seeming less and less likely. For now the probabilities are favoring major downside in crypto, stocks, and real estate. There's also other possible targets. While $32k in 2 years is close to the worst case scenario, a drop lasting only a few months and forming a smaller x-wave or something else is also possible. It will depend ultimately how this develops. To confirm a long-term bear market we should hit around $62k by end of Q1. If it takes longer than that, it's possible the bear market won't be as big. Right now, the important thing is that the market is at a clear fork in the road. If it can't push new all time highs then the signals clearly say that we are headed down from here based on the momentum, price action, sentiment and wave counts. How far down exactly can be determined in the future when there's more information.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Intuit
3
MICROSTRATEGY: Hit the 1D MA50 and bounced, but is it a buy now?MSTR has made a rapid turn from overbought to neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.944, MACD = 14.210, ADX = 17.986) as it reached today a -40% decline from its ATH but eventually hit the 1D MA50 and rebounded. This is the first contact with the 1D MA50 since September 19th. Even though it seems like a strong technical buy opportunity, Microstrategy has had its best buy entries in the last 2 years, under the 1D MA50. As this chart shows there have been 8 such buy signals, so even though the current rebound is tempting, we ideally want to see the price under the 1D MA50 and $300 before issuing a buy signal. Once this is filled, we can target the December 5th High minimum (TP = 400). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NASDAQ:MSTR
by InvestingScope
MSTR: Prime Opportunity for a Rebound as Buyers Take Control Bullish Analysis for MSTR: MicroStrategy (MSTR) has recently dropped alongside the broader crypto market, but strong buying momentum is emerging as buyers step in to buy the dip . The RSI is coming back from oversold levels, signaling potential for a rebound. As Bitcoin stabilizes and recovers, MSTR’s stock is likely to benefit from both the crypto rebound and its solid business fundamentals. Trade Setup: Take Profit 1: $370 Take Profit 2: $430 Stop Loss: $310 This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward opportunity, with MSTR potentially poised for a bullish reversal.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by ValchevFinance