"micro trends" or miniature up trendsniature up trends
Every major trend is going to have one thing in common
A series of higher high and higher lows, or a series of lower highs and lower lows.
Once you understand how to identify these trend patterns and the overall direction of a market, you can catch a move and stay in for a much larger trending move
You can apply this type of setup to intraday and end of day trades.
If you are having a hard time finding the trends, take a step back and look at the major turning points, are they going up or are they going down
A lot of times traders get caught up in the noise of the markets and lose focus, but the market is always going to tell you where it is heading
Do not worry about finding the top or the bottom, we are going for the middle 80%..
That is where the money is at
Once you enter into this type of trend following trade.
You manage stops by trailing them just behind the highest high or lowest low
This will guarantee you stay in trade as long as the trend continues your direction
If a previous high /low is broken, the the market is entering consolidation or reversing
Now that you know how to identify what a trend is, you will start to see"micro trends" or miniature up trends, within the context of major down trend or miniature down trends, within the context of major up trend.
These micro trends often times give us great entry opportunities to jump back in when a major trend resumes its original direction
When you see a short-term series of higher low, higher high, within the context of a major down trend, draw a trend line connecting the lows. When the trend line is broken, you enter short.
When you see a short-term series of lower high, lower lows, within the context of a major up trend, draw a trend line connecting the highs, when the trend line is broken, you enter long.
Microtrend
Could Bitcoin Stay above the Gaussian Channel? All this up and down seen on a 4 HR chart could cause a person to lose sleep. However it does give a better feel for the short term pulse of the market. Somewhat like blood-pressure as seen by the solid yellow and red lines. Right now I would say it’s a little high but let’s not fool ourselves, it’s been there before. It often happens prior to a leap in one direction or the other.
Here I'm looking at an overlay of the Gaussian Channel to get a sense that the price of Bitcoin is moving higher. A price remaining above the green channel has historically been a time of higher highs and higher lows. Just remember we are looking at a 4 HR chart. Also note Bitcoin can and has fallen right through the bottom of the green channel and turn it red in less than a day.
It’s not advice, just my free view of where Bitcoin is today.
Remember. This is not trading advice. Follow me if you wish, share it if you want and please engage the like button and add your comments below.
DJI (Wall Street): Potential limited move north. At this time the overall probability from higher time frames is for DJI to move south (6H to 1D). However, there is a trend move probably on a 3 min to 5 min coming up.
This could move DJI up from 20800 to possibly as an estimate 21600. This is not a prediction. Have a look. Also see my other video that tracked a trend change on the DAX (link is below).
Note: this is not advice - if you lose our money sue yourself. The position is labelled long only from a microtrend perspective.
GOLDMAN SACHS: when a giant stumblesGoldman Sachs has stumbled and now there is much debate out there about what next to do. As usual some are shouting "enter long now", whilst others are saying "stay out" etc.
For me, it's very simple i.e. I just need to wait on a favourable time frame, somewhere between 2 - 6 hourly if I'm to go north. It's difficult to go short as there could be a rebellion of hopefuls heading north anytime soon. A northward push (if it happens) could attempt to test what I see as the base of a not so well-defined head and shoulders on the weekly.
The other major problem is that we are in dangerous economic times - far worse than 2008. So, GS could well head into a massive dive just like around 2008.
My strategy in the short term:
1. Wait for a pulse north and follow that if it happens on a microtrend (long position).
2. If that microtrend happens to get near the base, I'll be out - then look to short.
(Emphasis on the word 'if').
Longer term strategy:
1. If price goes into a deep dive like in 2008-ish probably months away, then look for favourable trend heading north, to go long.
2. Stalk for a double bottom if it happens.
Third Indicator of upward move for BABAHistorically when the Coppock Curve reaches this level, the stock moves at least 1% higher over the next few weeks with an average move of 15%. This chart depicts multiple levels of interest over the next few months.
In the current MACRO trend channel, it took BABA about 64 trading days to go from the top of the channel to the bottom (Nov 15-Feb 16) in a move that lost 31.44%. This same top to bottom was recently repeated in 60 trading days and only 21.72% was shed.
After the 2016 drop, BABA moved bottom to a top in about 49 trading days which gained 37.96%. My longer term outlook is for something similar to occur. IF BABA breaks above its current down trend channel, upward movement could continue toward 109.23 around March 1.
For now my conservative play is a move to at least 96.00 over the next few weeks. World events could keep BABA in the current down trend channel for a much longer period of time. Of interest is a potential selloff after DJY0 reaches 20K and/or the swearing in of President Trump which brings to fruition some international policies. Trump could stir up tariffs, embargos, or other vital trade implications especially with China that could weaken some of BABA's international imports and exports.
Bottom line, look for BABA to move to 96.00, and then 109.00 once the current MICRO trend is broken upward.