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Midbollingerband

BTC-61.8% FIB RET@37'877 NEARLY FILLED!WEEKLY (W1) The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 37'877 has roughly been filled with an intraday reached yesterday 37'974... Nevertheless, global picture remains heavy ! Indeed, last week price action triggered a LONG BLACK CANDLE with its closing level nearly at its bottom which is usually a bearish confirmation of the ongoing trend. In addition, the previous candle was already, as mentioned last week, a first warning reversal signal ( SHOOTING STAR !) IN THIS WEEKLY TIME FRAME LEVELS TO LOOK AT ARE THE FOLLOWING : UPSIDE : 42'524 (TENKAN-SEN) AHEAD OF THE TOP OF WEEKLY CLOUDS DOWNSIDE : 37'260 (WEEKLY CLOUDS BOTTOM) DAILY (D1) Last closing below the Daily clouds ! RSI @ 39.93 (no bullish divergence yet in this daily time frame !) After having nearly filled the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , it is usual to see a recovery attempt which is currently in progress... Daily closing later on today, will give in this time frame the temperature for the upcoming trading sessions ; indeed, a daily closing above the bottom of the clouds (also the middle of the yesterday's black candle) will trigger a PIERCING LINE pattern, which would be the first signal of a reversal continuation. A daily closing above the opening of the previous candle (40'000) would even give additional value for further upside as in this case we would have a BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN ! Next significant resistance being the TS and the Mid Bollinger Band ("My barometer"), currently, respectively @ 41'400 &41600 On the downside, a failure to hold above the former low @ 37'974 would open the door for lower levels towards the 35'000 area first ahead of 32'950 (January low). 4 HOURS (H4) Successive dois, finally triggered this upside recovery attempt; currently facing the first significant resistance level in the 4 hours time frame, which is the Mid Bollinger Band , currently @ 39'650 ! A sustainable move and H4 closing above 39'650, would temporary neutralize this ongoing downside risk which is still weighing on the BTC. HOURLY (H1) Ongoing short term recovery in progress...with the first obstacle (hourly clouds) which should firstly be broken in order to confirm further upside... 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ot the last downside move is @ 39'540 ! CONCLUSION : As usual, watch and monitor closely price action from shorter intraday time frames, which will help you to validate or invalidate the implications previously mentioned in longer time frames. HAVE A NICE WEEK :-) Take care and all the best IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC-D1-FOLLOW THE CLOUDS...DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action (DOJI) is confirming this ongoing persisting downside move ! Indeed, the expected short term recovery has been short lived, providing better selling opportunity. The BTC nearly filled the 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 39'400 /intraday low being so far @ 39'492 and global picture remains heavy. Interesting to look at the shape of the daily clouds which still have some space to the downside for the upcoming daily trading sessions and also, important to note that the daily bottom clouds area coincides roughly with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement 37'877 and therefore should be seem as an important support level and as a pivot point in this daily time frame. On the upside, the daily pivot point remains @ 42'500 (top of the clouds !) with an intermediate resistance level between 39'500 and 40'000 WEEKLY (W1) Weekly closing level will give more clues about further development as, for the time being, it is not very encouraging either... SHORTER TIME FRAMES : As usual, watch and monitor shorter intraday time frames to get early signal of a BULLISH DIVERGENCE, which could provide short term tactical trading buying opportunities(countertrend !) and which should be protected with a trailing stop loss accordingly !!! Have a nice weekend, take care and all the best. Ironman8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC-H4-DOUBLE TOP @ 39'552 FILLED !4 HOURS (H4) The double top target @ 39'552 has been filled with an intraday low @ 39'450, roughy also filled the 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 39'400 mentioned in my previous analysis. No bullish divergences detected so far ! Lagging line below the clouds too. RSI below 50, @ 34.09 Nevertheless, after this nice decline, it is likely, on short term to see and this is what currently is happening, some short term corrective recovery which is expected to be pretty limited in this broad bearish strategic structure. Indeed, looking ahead, the Tenkan-Sen @ 40'338 in this H4 time frame, is the first resistance level to look at on a H4 closing basis as a sustainable move above this level would open the door for higher levels towards R2 @ 41'487 ahead the pivot level on H4 @ 42'117. A successful recovery above 42'117 (H4 closing basis) would put the focus (once again...) to the CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA (42750-43'500) interesting to note that 42'747 is the 61.8% Fib ret of the last downside move starting @ 44'785 towards 39'450. DOWNSIDE : A successful breakout of the 39'400, as already mentioned in my previous analysis would directly put the focus on the next support level, which is 37'877 (very fragile zone between 39'400 and 37'877-mirror effect of the long white candle seen during the trading session of February 4th, and ahead of 37'510 (78.6 % Fibonacci retracement extension) DAILY (D1) T he DAILY CLOUDS, for the time being rejected the downside breakout attempt and for now the levels to watch on this daily picture are, ONCE AGAIN THE CLOUDS, respectively and currently : UPSIDE : 42'525 DOWNSIDE : 39'500 A BREAKOUT OF ONE OF THOSE LEVEL ON A DAILY CLOSING BASIS WILL CONFIRM THE DIRECTION FOR THE UPCOMING DAILY TRADING SESSIONS !!! As usual, watch and monitor closely, intraday shorter time frames to get clues which will validate or invalidate scenarios implications previously explained. Have a nice Saturday and take care Ironman8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-D1-WATCH THE CLOUDS...ONCE AGAIN !DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action triggered a long black bearish candle which went (as expected,see my previous analyisis) down towards the clouds bottom support level @ 40'088 ! BTC is currently below : 1) the Tenkan-Sen or Conversion line (TS) 2) the Mid Bollinger Band (MBB) 3) the ongoing former uptrend support line (in green) Nevertheless, still above : 1) The Kijun-Sen (KS) @ 39'400 which is also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last 32'950-45'850 rally seen recently from Jan 24th to Feb 10th RSI below 50, @ 46.24 Lagging line testing the MBB and the KS , which for the time being act as supports. CONCLUSION ON A DAILY BASIS : Watch carefully, ONCE AGAIN, at the clouds ! Indeed, such kind of information is very powerful, and will give you the next direction... Therefore, there are two levels to look at very carefully on a DAILY CLOSING BASIS which are the following : UPSIDE : 42'525 (DAILY TOP CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA) DOWNSIDE : 39'400 (DAILY BOTTOM CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA & LAST BUT NOT LEAST THE 50% FIB RET and the KS TOO) A sustainable recovery move above MBB, currently @ 41'489, would, temporary neutralise this ongoing persisting downside risk. While a failure to hold above 39'400 would put the focus on 37'877 being the 61.8% Fib ret ahead of 35'710 (78.6% Fibonacci extension). 4 HOURS (H4) Below the clouds, the psychological 40'000 support level, nearly filled with a yesterday's low @ 40'088 Below the TS, KS and MBB too. RSI far below 50 @ 33.07 with NO BULLISH DIVERGENCE DETECTED SO FAR ! , meaning current reversal price action should only be seen as a corrective move. The Lagging line is below the clouds too. Looking at potential tactical corrective recovery, we can identify the following targets : R1 : 41'211 R2 : 41'907 R3 : 42'469 (50% FIB RET 44'850-40'088 & DAILY CLOUDS TOP AREA @ 42'525) R4 : 43'030 To the downside, as mentioned previously in D1, a breakout of 39'400 would put the BTC in a very fragile zone (mirror effect of the long white candle seen on Feb 4th (37'325-39'840)! CONCLUSION : Watch and monitor closely price action on shorter intraday time frames to get more clues and intermediate signal (s) which will help you to validate or invalidate implications above mentioned. FINALY, LAST BUT NOT LEAST DO NOT FORGET, WHEN YOU TRADE TACTICALLY IN COUNTERTREND TO ADOPT A DISCIPLINED RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACH IN PLACING STOP LOSSES ACCORDINGLY AND IN ADOPTING ALSO A TRAILING STOP STRATEGY !!! GOOD LUCK :-) Have a nice day and take care Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
STANDARD LITHIUM LTD -D1-DIAMOND !Looking at the DAILY picture, a "Diamond" pattern is in progress and is currently trying to upside breakout the downtrend resistance line of this bullish pattern. Last but not least, the Kijun-Sen or Base line also coincides with the upside breakout level of this Diamond pattern, which if broken would also give, an additional confirmation signal, calling for further upside. TECHNICAL TARGET OF THIS DIAMOND PATTERN IS @ 9.52 or roughly the Daily top clouds resistance area !!! WEEKLY (W1) Weekly clouds hold and rejected, for the time being,several successive downside breakout ! A weekly closing above $ 7.03 would be very positive and would open the door for higher levels. Next target being @ $ 7.66 ahead of the cluster @ $ 8.83 - $ 9.00 On my own account I would put in place a Risk Reward ratio of 1:3 !!! Ironman8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
AMEX:SLILong
by Ironman8848
1
NQ1 100 MF - PULLBACK FAILURE !DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action on one hand, above the cluster of TS (14'549) and MB (14'570) but..be careful, the shape of the yesterday's candle ( a doji hanging man , is a warning reversal signal which is also validated by the pullback failure to recover and hold above the former uptrend support line (in green) Indeed, today's ongoing price action is already in progress to confirm this expected downside move (should of course be confirmed on a daily closing basis to validate further downside). There is a very fragile zone (14500-14'250) and a failure to hold above 14'250, on a daily closing basis, would directly put the focus on the 14'000 area (former low and doji) ahead of the intraday low of 13'706 reached on January 24th. RSI below 50, @ 44.24 4 HOURS (H4) Still under the influence of this triangle pattern (technical target @ 12'932) , where, for the time being, several pullback recovery attempts failed, also rejected by the H4 clouds resistance zone. The Lagging line is again, currently below the clouds too. A failure to hold, on H4 closing basis) above the ongoing H4 support trend line, currently @ 14'425 (by the way, also the 38.2% Fib ret) would weigh on the NQ1 and would open the door for lower levels previously mentioned in D1. Watch the clouds as the first significant H4 resistance area RSI slightly above the 50 level, @ 50.13 Do you like my analysis ? If the answer is YES, please do not forget : 1) to like it 2) for those who did not follow me yet on Trading View, please add Ironman8848 on your following list 3) and for those who do not have a Trading View access (the best charting application available at the moment !, please do not hesitate to sign up (different levels :-) , in clicking on the following link : www.tradingview.com Many thanks in advance. KInd regards Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Ironman8848
1
GOLD FUTURES-W1/D1-PIVOT LEVEL @ 1'919WEEKLY (W1) In a broading sideways price action (1677-1919) and under the influence of a DOUBLE BOTTOM IN PROGRESS ( see related ideas below) Currently above the clouds with a Lagging line above the clouds too ! Global weekly picture is positive, calling for a test of the former high @ 1'919 which should be seen as a KEY PIVOT LEVEL for the next move. Indeed, this level is the DOUBLE BOTTOM TRIGGER LEVEL and a clear breakout and sustainable move above 1'919 would confirm this double bottom formation and open the door for a technical target @ 2'161 (NEW ATH) RSI is above 50, @ 60.04 and is still converging to the upside. Only a failure to stay on a weekly basis above the cluster of 1831-1800 support area would force to a view reassessment of this expected bullish scenario calling for an upside breakout of the former high @ 1'919 DAILY (D1) In an ongoing uptrend channel, above the clouds and in a positive and constructive price action. First significant support to look at on a daily basis closing level is @ 1'845. A failure to hold above this level would be the first warning signal ahead of the MBB (1830) which also coincides with the ongoing uptrend channel bottom line support (corroboration with the weekly view previously explained) Last but not least, MAJOR DAILY SUPPORT being the DAILY CLOUDS (1'831-1'800) 4 HOURS (H4) In this time frame, a potential short term double top is in progress ! Watch and monitor closely the price action on the upcoming trading hours and check RSI in order to get signal of a potential short term bearish divergence. A failure to stay on a H4 closing basis, should be seen, as for D1, as a warning signal for a short term reversal,(tactical countertrend short term trading opportunity) still in a consolidation move in a broad bull trend. As usual, watch at shorter intraday time frame to get early signal (s) which will validate or invalide the implications previously mentioned. Do you like my analysis ? If the answer is YES, please do not forget : 1) to like it 2) for those who did not follow me yet on Trading View, please add Ironman8848 on your following list 3) and for those who do not have a Trading View access (the best charting application available at the moment !, please do not hesitate to sign up (different levels :-) , in clicking on the following link : www.tradingview.com Many thanks in advance. KInd regards Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Ironman8848
BTC-H4/H1- ONGOING DOWNTREND IN PROGRESS !4 HOURS (H4) Recent price action is showing that, for the time being the top clouds support area (43'325), rejected two successive breakout attempts (43'312 and 43'367) with its H4 closing level, respectively @ 43'650, but directly neutralised by the next white long candle (bullish engulfing pattern) with a failure of confirmation on this potential ongoing upside move. Therefore, there is no change in my view which is to watch in this H4 time frame (on a closing basis level) the following points : UPSIDE. : 44'785 DOWNSIDE : 43'420/43'325 RSI stil above 50, @ 55.10...but still pointing to the South ! A BREAKOUT (H4 closing basis !) OF ONE OF THOSE TWO LEVELS WILL SHOW THE DIRECTION and watch the clouds... 1 HOUR (H1) Copy paste of yesterday's picture... but slightly lower. Indeed the cluster of TS, MBB and KS is moving slightly down and is currently between 44'067 and 43'860 and already within the H1 clouds support zone ! A failure to stay(H1 closing basis) above KS (43'860) would put the focus on the ongoing very short term uptrend support line, currently @ 43'550 ahead of the H1 clouds support bottom @ 43'180 Next support area being the 4 hours clouds (in overlay(green) on this H1 chart (43'325-41'565) DAILY (D1) Still attempting to upside breakout the clouds (currently around the former high @ 45'850 and still supported by the Tenkan-Sen @ 43'712 A daily closing below 43'712 would be the first warning signal of a reversal in this daily time frame towards lower levels (cluster support of MBB (41'527) and ongoing daily support trend line (41'396). Failure to hold above the cluster would put the focus towards the next significant support level @ 39'400 (KS and 50% of Fibonacci retracement of the last 32'950-45'850 with minor intermediate support @ 40'000 (psychological ¨) Do you like my analysis ? If the answer is YES, please do not forget : 1) to like it 2) for those who did not follow me yet on Trading View, please add Ironman8848 on your following list 3) and for those who do not have a T rading View access (the best charting application available at the moment ! , please do not hesitate to sign up (different levels :-) , in clicking on the following link : www.tradingview.com Many thanks in advance. KInd regards Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC-H4/H1- AT CRITICAL LEVELS !4 HOURS (H4) Above the 4 hours clouds, supported by the ongoing H4 uptrend support line and currently under the new downtrend resistance line. Watch : Upside : former high @ 44'785 Downside : ongoing support trend line (currently around 43'650 which is also the top of the 4 hours clouds. A breakout of one of those 2 levels will show further direction RSI showing some uncertainty and indecision around the ongoing downtrend line resistance too ! 1 hour (H1) Currently supported on very short term (H1) by the cluster of MBB, TS KS and TS) A failure to stay and hold on a hourly closing basis above this cluster (44'140-44'170) would be the first warning signal of a short term reversal move, calling for the reenter, firstly in the 4 hours clouds (in overlay on the 4 hours chart in green) ahead of the hourly clouds support area, below between 43'250 and 42'900 Looking briefly at the DAILY PRICE ACTION, we can see an attempt to breakout the clouds with a long white candle triggered yesterday, which for the time being is not confirming this yesterday's bullish price action. Watch today's closing level which should give more clues and validate or validate this long white bullish candle seen yesterday. A clear breakout of the DAILY CLOUDS (on a daily closing basis !) would be very positive for further development, opening the door for the upside towards higher levels. Have a nice trading day Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
HERMES-STRATEGIC MEDIUM/LONG TERM BUY !Following the sharp decline (-30.85 %), since the ATH @ EUR 1678.00 reached on December 1st, 2021, the price action triggered an HAMMER (reversal pattern) coupled with a RSI BULLISH DIVERGENCE, which is a first positive signal calling for a trend reversal towards higher levels. Important to also note that a potential DOUBLE BOTTOM is in progress (first bottom having been reached on October 1st, 2021 @ 1'166.50 ! Today's ongoing price action (long white candle) is, for the time being confirming this reversal and a closing level, on a DAILY BASIS, ideally above the Tenkan-Sen or Conversion line (@ 1'257.80) would add further support to this expected bullish scenario. IMPLICATIONS : UPSIDE : Once this first resistance level will be broken, focus will be on the second resistance area (cluster of both Kijun-Sen or Base line (1288) and the MId Bollinger Band-(1298) -"my own Barometer !", for further development (on this daily time frame, BULLISH above and BEARISH below the Mid Bollinger Band (MBB). The ongoing downtrend resistance line (in red), currently around 1'380 would be the next resistance level to look at ahead of the Daily clouds area (currently very thin) and close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 1480.50. A clear upside breakout of the top of the clouds would reopen the door for a new attempt of ATH. DOWNSIDE : Former low @ 1'160.50 is the first support to look at and any dips towards this level should be seen as consolidative move in a new uptrend. Main focus will remain on the WEEKLY CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA (1'200-1'025) with intermediate support @ 1'097,00 this level being the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the big rally which started @ EUR 516.00 in March 16, 2020 CONCLUSION : HERMES is a diamond, very well managed and fundamentally exceptional ! Therefore, STRATEGIC LONG EXPOSURE SHOULD BE BUILT FROM CURRENT LEVEL AND ON DIPS AS A REAL VALUE ADDED ON ANY PORTFOLIO.
EURONEXT:RMSLong
by Ironman8848
3
BTC-D1-TENKAN-SEN IN RESISTANCE !DAILY (D1) After having reached, yesterday an intraday low @ 41'575, the BTC recovered to close @ 42'077 in making a "small" BULLISH ENGULFING pattern. Ongoing price action is showing a first important resistance to break, which is the TENKAN-SEN or Conversion Line @ 43'712 and this, of course on a daily closing basis ! Looking on the downside, the BTC, in this daily time frame is supported by the cluster of both the Mid Bollinger Band (my Barometer !) and by the ongoing daily uptrend support line, currently around 40'830. Therefore, in this daily time frame, supports and resistance levels to watch are the following : DOWNSIDE : S1 : 41'575 (yesteday's intraday low) S2 : 40'833 ( MBB) - 38.2% Fib ret @ 40'922 S3 : Kijun-Sen or Base line @ 39'400 - 50 % Fib ret UPSIDE : R1 : 43'712 R2 : 45'850 (Former high) R3 : 48'000 (78.6% Fib ret of the 52'098-32950 downside move) CONCLUSION : 1. Watch the DAILY CLOUDS on the upside 2. Watch the MID BOLLINGER BANDS on the downside A clear breakout, ON A DAILY CLOSING BASIS , of one of those levels would open the door for a move of 5'000 points, targeting respectively the psychological 50'000 level on the upside and the 35'000 area on the downside, which coincides with the lower daily closing level seen in January 22nd. 4 HOURS (H4) Currently above the Mid Bollinger Band (ongoing long white candle !) and attempting to test and potentially breakout the top of the 4 hours clouds resistance area @ 44'090. RSI is above 50 @ 60.31, no bearish divergence detected in this H4 time frame yet. An H4 closing above the clouds would be the first positive signal for further upside in this H4 time frame 1 HOUR (H1) Last 1 hour trading (long white candle) confirmed in this time frame the upside clouds breakout, filling on its way the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement @ 43'208.(intraday high so far @ 43'661) Next resistance being the 50% Fib ret @ 43'712 (also the level of the Tenkan-Sen on the daily chart !) RSI is also above 50 @ 69.36 and no bearish divergence detected so far either. As usual watch shorter intraday time frames which will give you a warning signal of a reversal or a validation of the trend continuation. Have a nice trading day. All the best and take care. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
US10YEARS-W1/D1- ONGOING UPSIDE MOVE !WEEKLY (W1) Following the breakout which occured a couple of weeks ago, we can identify a sideways/up consolidation price action. Indeed, a natural pullback took place which has been rejected by the former downtrend line resistance which became now the new support area (currently around 1.67 %) and slightly below the Tenkan-Sen (@ 1.7080 %) which should be seen as the first significant support level in this weekly time frame. A SHOOTING STAR took place last week, but the ongoing price action (above it, for the time being and of course should be confirmed on the next weekly closing) could invalidate such kind of pattern which, usually is a warning of a trend reversal ! The TRIANGLE PATTERN gives a technical target @ 2.3230 %. ONLY A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF THE CLUSTER SUPPORT OF TS, KS, MBB (1.7080 %-1.6280 % WOULD FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF THIS EXPECTED BULLISH (YIELD) SCENARIO ! DAILY (D1) Last Friday's price action triggered a BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN which confirm A BEARISH DIVERGENCE and which should not be underestimated; nevertheless, the last daily closing level was still above the Tenkan-Sen, which for the time being is still supportive for further upside. Therefore, in this daily time frame, watch carefully at the following supports levels : S1 : 1.9020 % S2 : 1,8780% S3 : 1.8560% (The Barometer !) A failure to hold above S3 would open the door for the daily clouds support area (1.70%-1.60%) which corroborate the weekly view as 1.60% should be seen as a KEY PIVOT LEVEL, strategically speaking. Do you like my analysis and do you find it bring an additional value in your trading strategies ? If YES, please do not forget to like my idea on Trading View and for those who did not follow me yet, also do not forget to add Ironman8848 on your following list. And last but not least, for those who do not have access to Trading View yet (from my personal point of view, the best charting application available at the moment !), please do not hesitate to use the following link to sign up : www.tradingview.com Have a nice trading week. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
BTC-W1-SHOOTING STAR !WEEKLY (W1) Failure of the upside breakout of the weekly clouds triggered a SHOOTING STAR (reversal pattern !) ! In addition, the last weekly closing level @ 42'077 was also below the Tenkan-Sen (42'524) which is also an additional bearish signal calling for a trend reversal towards the bottom of the clouds and potentially lower. Next support to look at in this time frame are the following : S1 : 40'922 S2 : 39'400 (39'552 is the double top target mentioned in my yesterday's analysis !) S3 : 37'877 S4 : 35'710 Ongoing price action is showing a breakout attempt of the former uptrend support line (to be confirmed on a weekly basis, of course). Nevertheless, there is still a remaining positive point : the Lagging line is still above the weekly clouds and above the Tenkan-Sen... DAILY (D1) Below : 1) the clouds 2) the Tenkan-Sen still above : 1) the Mid Bollinger Band (the Barometer) @ 40'470 2) the ongoing daily uptrend support line (40'190) 3) the Kijun-Sen @ 39'400 (S2 on weekly) Watch the clouds and the Bollinger Band as leading indicators ! 4 HOURS (H4) DOUBLE TOP STILL IN PROGRESS (mentioned yesterday, see related idea below) with the clouds still in support. A breakout of the bottom of the clouds (40'900) also S1 on weekly chart would put the focus on lower levels previously mentioned in both weekly and daily analysis. ONLY A SUSTAINABLE MOVE ABOVE 43'500 WOULD NEUTRALISE THIS PERSISTING ONGOING DOWNWARD PRESSURE !!! As usual, watch and monitor closely shorter intraday time frame to get more clues which will validate or invalidate the implications previously mentioned. Be sure, if you act tactically in countertrend to adopt a disciplined trading strategy (Risk Reward ratio) and in placing stop loss (trailing) accordingly. Have a nice trading week. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
SP500 MF-W1-BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN !Last weekly candle triggered a BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN ! Indeed, the failure to : 1) Recover above the Mid Bollinger Band 2) Hold above Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen is confirming this persisting downward pressure in this weekly time frame. Looking ahead, it is likely to see an ongoing downside move with temporary recovery attempts in a countertrend tactical move only... Such kind of tactical rally, should, as already mentioned several times, be monitored closely with a disciplined RR (Risk Reward) approach. STRATEGIC TARGETS REMAINS THE FOLLOWING : 1) Retest of former low @ 4186.50 (also roughly the weekly top clouds zone and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2'174-4'808.25 BIG RALLY or + 121 % !) 2) The bottom of the weekly clouds which also coincides with the 38.2% Fib ret @ 3'802 3) the 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 3'491.25 4) and the 61.8% Fib ret @ 3'180.25 Do you think, such kind of correction is possible ? Honestly speaking, I think so ! Why ? The answer is pretty simple : Watch from where the SP500 came from (2'174) and after a performance of more than 120%, a minimum correction of 38.2% should, at least, occurs and even 50% towards 3'491.25 ! And...this would not affect the long term (monthly) uptrend. LAST BUT NOT LEAST, AS A GENTLE REMINDER, THE MONTHLY KIJUN-SEN IS ALSO AT 3'491.25 AND ONLY A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF THAT SUPPORT LEVEL WOULD DESTROY THE ONGOING LONG TERM BULLISH PICTURE. By the way, if you like my analysis and if you find any added value on your trading activities, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet on Trading View, please do not forget either to add Ironman8848 in your following list. And for those who do not have access to Trading View yet (from my personal point of view, the best charting application available at the moment) please do not hesitate to use the following link to sign up : www.tradingview.com Many thanks in advance. Have a nice weekend Ironman8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Ironman8848
3
BTC-H4-EN ROUTE FOR 39'552 !Today, we are going to look at the 4 hours chart which is showing several (at least 5 !) interesting things 1) Double top in progress 2) RSI bearish divergence 3) Doji top, followed by a bearish engulfing pattern 4) Breakout of the Mid Bollinger Band 5) Lagging line cross under the Kijun-Sen and last but not least, currently the BTC is already in the middle of the clouds in this 4 hours time frame. So what next ? On the UPSIDE , levels to watch now are the following : 1) Tenkan-Sen @ 42'387 2) The Mid Bollinger Band @ 43'159 3) The top of the clouds @ 43'526 and only a clear and sustainable recovery above 43'500 would temporary neutralise this persisting downside risk and postpone "for a while" this downward pressure... On the DOWNSIDE, next supports are the following : 1) 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 41'060 2) Psychological 40'000 level 3) 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 39'929 4) DOUBLE TOP TARGET @ 39'552 GLOBAL PICTURE REMAINS HEAVY !!! Looking briefly at longer time frames, it is not encouraging either : DAILY (D1) 1) DOUBLE TOP in the clouds 2) Currently below the clouds 3) Tenkan-Sen broken Nevertheless, still : 1) above the Mid Bollinger Band (@ 40'228) 2) above the ongoing support trend line (@ 40'000) 3) above the Kijun-Sen @ 39'400 4) the Lagging line is still stlightly above the Tenkan-Sen INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE LEVELS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE 4 HOURS ANALYSE ARE CORROBORATING THOSE MENTIONED ON THE DAILY ANALYSIS !!! WEEKLY (W1) A SHOOTING STAR is in progress (wait for weekly closing level) to validate or invalidate such kind of reversal pattern !!! Weekly Tenkan-Sen @ 42'524 CONCLUSION FOR THE WEEKLY TIME FRAME : A failure to close, above the clouds and the Tenkan-Sen would put additional selling pressure for the upcoming week with a focus on the weekly clouds bottom @ 37'360 which is also, roughly the former weekly downtrend line. Looking lower, IN THIS WEEKLY TIME FRAME there is not significant support area until the psychological 30'000 area ahead of the VERY, VERY, VERY, VERY IMPORTANT 28'600 SUPPORT LEVEL !!! Have a nice Sunday. By the way, if you like my analysis and if you find any added value on your trading activities, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet on Trading View, please do not forget either to add Ironman8848 in your following list. And for those who do not have access to Trading View yet (from my personal point of view, the best charting application available at the moment) please do not hesitate to use the following link to sign up : www.tradingview.com Many thanks in advance. Ironman8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
SP500 MF-H4-POTENTIAL DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !Following the nice rally seen over the last couple of days, recent price action triggered a potential double top formation in progress , coupled with a RSI bearish divergence and last but not least, the last H4 candle is showing also a BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN. Therefore, upcoming candle price action should be watch at very carefully as a failure to recover and close at least above the middle level (@ 4'574) of the last black candle or better above the former high, which would trigger respectively, either a PIERCING LINE PATTERN or even better a BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN, ,would be the second signal of a trend reversal calling for lower level towards : 1) 4'535 2)4'515-4'510 (H4 cluster support) 3) 4 hours clouds 4) 4'442.50 (double top trigger level & H4 clouds bottom A breakout of the 4'442.50 level would confirm the double top, targeting 4'295.25 or a retest of former congestion support seen at the end of January ! Globally, watch the 4 hourly clouds as the major support area and watch at the daily clouds (in overlay) as the major resistance area in this 4 hour/1 day time frame. As usual, monitor closely price action in shorter intraday time frame which will help you to detect early signal(s) in order to validate or invalidate the implications previously mentioned. Have a nice trading day Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Ironman8848
BTC-DI-DOJI-WATCH THE CLOUDS !DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action triggered a "DOJI" candle with its closing level, exactly at the daily clouds bottom level ! Today's ongoing price action, is for the time being, showing a potential reversal in progress , which, of course, needs to be confirmed on a daily basis closing (either by a dark cloud cover or even better by a bearish engulfing pattern). RSI is moving sideways with a little bias to the downside. First support level, to look at, on a daily basis is @ 41'500 (minor congestion zone, after the Marubozu sharp upside breakout which occurs on Feb 4th) ahead of the next significant important support @ 40'882 (TS). A failure to hold above the Tenkan-Sen, would confirm this trend reversal and reopen the door for the 39'000 area (cluster support) ahead of the ongoing uptrend support line, currently @ 38'500 UPSIDE : Only a clear upside breakout of the former high @ 45'500, on a daily basis closing would allow further upside towards the 48'000 (78.6% Fibo extension) ahead of the top of the daily clouds resistance zone @ 49'500 4 HOURS (H4) A RSI bearish divergence detected yesterday triggered a small trend reversal which went down towards the Kijun-Sen (43'238) and the Mid Bollinger Band (43'076) which both of them, so far, in this 4 hours time frame act very well as a support areas in rejecting several downside breakout attempts. Last H4 candle which closed a few minutes ago @ 43'853 is roughly at the junction of both the former uptrend support line and the ongoing downtrend line resistance; therefore upcoming closing level candle should give additional information on which way the BTC will go ... A failure to hold above the cluster (KS & MBB) would open the door for the following targets : 1) 41'972 2) 40'882 3) 39'792 (this level being the middle of the H4 clouds support area !) UPSIDE : A successful upside breakout of the Tenkan-Sen (44'101) would neutralise temporarily the ongoing downside risk and would put the focus on the daily clouds resistance area, currently between 44'500 and 49'500. 1 HOUR (H1) Watch the clouds which also worked perfectly well..so far.. in rejecting downside breakout attempts. A failure to stay and hold above the 43'300 area on a hourly closing basis would be the first warning. Ironman8848 @ Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-D1-61.8% FIB RET @ 44'783 FILLED !DAILY (D1) The "minor" 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 44'783 of the last downside move (52'098 "shooting stars) towards 32'950) has been filled. Above that level there is a very important area (DAILY CLOUDS) which should ultimately be broken in order to confirm further upside ! Indeed, a failure to do it would reopen the door for a downside consolidation move towards : 1) The Tenkan-Sen (former resistancebroken by a strong Marubozu pattern on Feb 4th which became now the new first support level to look @ 40'882 2) The Kijun-Sen @ 39'225) 3) "THE BAROMETER" OR THE MID BOLLINGER BAND @ 38'743 4) And last but not least the ongoing uptrend support line, currently @ 38'270. Levels to look to the upside are the following : 1) 46'721 ( MAJOR 38.2% FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT OF THE BIG 69'000-32'950 DOWNSIDE MOVE) 2) 48'000 ( minor 78.6% Fib ret (52'098-32'950) 3) 50'975 (former highs (2 shooting stars seen in December 2021 , 50% MAJOR FIB RET and the WEEKLY KIJUN-SEN + RSI, above the 50 level @ 62.54 - Lagging line still below the Daily Kijun-Sen ! Watch shorter intraday time frames (from from 15 minutes to 4 hours) to get intermediate signal (s) which will validate or invalidate one or the other scenario previously exposed. Have a nice trading day Ironman8848 Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
NQ1-100-MF-ONGOING DOWNTREND !WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action is showing a failure to recover and hold above both Tenkan-Sen @ 15'182 and the Mid Bollinger Band @ 15'577 which, for the time being is confirming that the recent recovery was a corrective move only in a broad new bear trend. Look at the shape of the last candle and make your conclusion ! RSI below 50, @ 43.62 Lagging line is in the middle of the uptrend channel, slightly above the TS. So, in this weekly time frame there are 2 levels to look at : UPSIDE : 15'200 DOWNSIDE : CLOUDS SUPPORT AREA (14'127-12'914) BY THE WAY, MY FIRST STRATEGIC TARGET IS AND REMAINS @ 12'894 DAILY (D1) The failure 3 days ago to confirm the upside breakout of the secondary downtrend line, the MBB and the KS, (doji confirmation =uncertainty !) triggered this reversal in pushing down again the Nasdaq to retest the Tenkan-Sen (14'545), which for the time being acted as the daily support. This ongoing downside price action is expected to continue over the upcoming trading sessions, calling for 14'350 ahead of the daily congestion bottom reached at the end of January between 13'706 and 13'830 which also coincides with the top of the weekly clouds support area (in overlay on the daily chart). RSI below 50, @ 43.20 Lagging line below the clouds and the TS. On this daily time frame, a sustainable recovery above the Mid Bollinger Band (14'945) would temporary neutralise the ongoing downside risk and a breakout on a daily basis of the Kijun-Sen (15'136) would reopen the door for higher level towards the daily clouds resistance area. 4 HOURS (H4) Watch closely the clouds support area (14'550-14'380) as a failure to hold above this zone would, firstly, put direcly, the focus again on the former congestion bottom of end of Jan (13'830-13'706) ahead of lower levels. 1 HOUR (H1) Below the clouds and the Mid Bollinger Band Caught between the cluster support of TS & KS and MBB. On this hourly time frame, watch the following levels (hourly closing basis !) : UPSIDE : Hourly clouds (14'727-14'858) DOWNSIDE : 4 hours clouds (14'540-14'212) Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Ironman8848
SP500MF-UPSIDE CORRECTIVE MOVE OVER !WEEKLY (W1) This weekly price action is showing a recovery attempt which failed to breakout the Mid Bollinger Band on a weekly closing basis ! In addition the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 4'580.75 has been filled (high being 4'586) and the weekly closing was @ 4'492.50 which is exactly on the razor's hedge (double top trigger level !!!) Therefore, this recent upside corrective move should be seen as OVER ! Likely to see at least a retest of the former low, below the 4'200 (top of the weekly clouds support zone) during the upcoming session (s) Just as a gentle reminder : 4'186.50 is ONLY THE 23.6 % FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT OF THE 2'174-4'808.25 RALLY... meaning that there is plenty of space to the downside... 1) the 38.2% Fib being @ 3'802 (important as it is the bottom of the weekly clouds !) 2) the 50% Fib ret @ 3'491.25 (Monthly Kijun-Sen) and the 61.8% Fib ret @ 3'180.25 Last but not least, the monthly clouds top level is currently @ 2'930 !! Have a look at the price action seen in Q1 2020... Never forget to look back on the long term picture ! DAILY (D1) Rejection a couple of days ago from the daily clouds resistance zone, failure to stay above both the Mid Bollinger Band and the daily downtrend resistance line. Last daily closing below the Kijun-Sen but still above the Tenkan-Sen. Lagging line again below the clouds. RSI failed to hold above 50. Watch 4'425 as the pivot point for further development; a failure to hold above that level on a daily closing basis would reopen the door for lower levels towards the former low @ 4'212, roughly the double top target of 4'175.75. Below the weekly clouds zone should be seen as the next very important support area (4'157-3810) (corroboration with the weekly analysis above mentioned). On the upside, ONLY a successful breakout of the 4'600 ahead of the "VERY THIN" daily clouds resistance zone (4'650) would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario and if this recovery occurs, then the focus would be, at least, for a retest of the ATH above 4'800 4 HOURS (H4) Recent price action in this time frame is showing the following : 1) Failure to recover above the Mid Bollinger Band 2) Last H4 closing level below the Tenkan Sen 3) RSI converging to the downside Looks like further downside move is expected over the upcoming trading sessions. Interesting to note that currently the clouds zone support is very thin (twist !!) and therefore it looks very fragile too. A failure on H4 closing basis to hold above the clouds would directly put the focus on the congestion bottom of the former lows reached between Jan 24th and Jan 28th (4'212.75-4'266.25). 1 HOUR (H1) Currently in an ongoing new downtrend channel with its top resistance line around 4'530 (H1 clouds) and its bottom support 4'430. Therefore, on this H1 time frame, there are 2 levels to watch : 4'530 4'430 A breakout of one of those levels would give the direction for the near future. RSI @ 47.02 Lagging line below the clouds. All the best Take care Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Ironman8848
BTC-UPSIDE BREAKOUT OF THE MID BOLLINGER BAND...MARUBOZU !As mentioned in my last analysis, the MID BOLLINGER BAND should be seen as a VERY, VERY, VERY IMPORTANT INDICATOR for the trend ! WEEKLY (W1) Ongoing weekly candle is showing a nice recovery attempt to breakout to the upside both weekly clouds top (42'570) and the Tenkan-Sen. Weekly closing will validate or invalidate this ongoing price action !!! DAILY (D) The upside breakout of the Mid Bollinger Band coupled with TS and KS, triggered a sharp acceleration (long white bullish candle-roughly a perfect MARUBOZU !) Such kind of candle is usually very BULLISH and should be confirmed by the next candle. The 38.2 % Fibonacci retracement @ 40'264.54 has already been filled and the BTC reached an intraday high so far @ 41'983 (the 50% Fib ret being @ 42'524, which is roughly the middle of the weekly clouds (in overlay on the daily chart) The Lagging line went up too and is still in the weekly clouds ! RSI above 50 @ 56.32 Today's price action and more important its closing level should give more clues for further development in validating or invalidating this Marubozu candle. In the meantime, watch shorter time frames from H4 to H5 which will help you to detect potential early signal of a trend reversal. 4 HOURS (H4) Watch how the upside breakout took place ! 1) Breakout of the upside of the clouds and the ongoing downtrend resistance line, but closing below the downtrend line 2) New upside breakout attempt of the downtrend line with a closing just above the downtrend line and the MBB and the KS 3) Opening above the cluster, retest of the top of the clouds support zone and strong explosion to the upside (long white candle 4) Follow through with 2 long white candles 5) "pause) in this sharp rally (small black candle) 6) ongoing candle attempting to move to the upside Lagging line above the clouds RSI @ 76 IMPLICATIONS : On this H4 time frame, the first significant support level is @ 40'750 A closing level (H4) below 4'0750 would be the first warning signal of a trend reversal in this H4 time frame. On the upside the 42'000 area (former high) ahead of 42'524 (50% Fib ret and roughly the top of the weekly clouds) are the next resistance levels to look at; a successfull breakout of 42'524 would put the focus on a very important point which is the 61.8% Fib ret @ 44'783 which coincides also to the top of the daily clouds. A clear breakout of the daily clouds on a daily closing basis would give additional conviction for further upside towards 47'500 and higher. 1 HOUR (H1) Above the clouds and the cluster of KS, MBB and TS. On this H1 time frame, first support to look at is @ 41'193. A failure to hold and stay sustainably above it would open the door for the 40'300 (important pivot area) in this time frame. On the upside, same than H4 15 MINUTES (15 M) Sideways price action around the cluster with the clouds (41'175-39'655) acting as the support zone. 23,6% Fib ret @ 40'634 and 38.2 % Fib ret @ 39'800 (rally from 36'270 to 41'983) On the upside, same than H4 Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
NQ1 100 MF-D1-DOJI EVENING STAR !DAILY (D1) Following the recent rally seen over the last couple of days, yesterday's price action triggered a "DOJI EVENING STAR" which closed slightly above the Mid Bollinger Band..but as this kind of pattern is usually bearish, the Nasdaq opened today with a gap and roughly at the level of the ongoing uptrend support line. Today's price acton should be monitor very closely as a failure to recover above the Mid Bollinger Band (15'013) on a daily closing basis would add further selling pressure calling for a move towards the first significant support level @ 14483 (TS); a daily closing level below 14483 would, again, put the Nasdaq below the former downtrend resistance line and therefore increase the selling pressure accordingly, towards the weekly clouds support area (in overlay on the Daily chart( 13'975-12'903) RSI failed to recover above 50, being currently @ 43.50. Lagging line reversed too. THE STRATEGIC TECHNICAL TARGET REMAINS @ 12'894 ! Only a sustainable move above 15200 would force to a view reassessment of the expected ongoing bearish scenario. 4 HOURS (H4) Currently, still above the H4 clouds but already below TS and MBB in a new ongoing downtrend (in this H4 time frame) The Lagging lane is again below the clouds . Watch the clouds as the next support area (14'680-14'210); 38,2% Fib ret @ 14'714 50.0 % Fib ret @ 14'545 61.8% Fib ret @ 14'377 and 78.6% Fib ret @ 14'136 (roughly the bottom of the H4 clouds zone ) RSI slightly above 50 @ 50.77 1 HOUR (H1) Currently in the clouds ! A failure to stay within the clouds and quickly recover above it would add conviction for further downside towards the levels previously mentioned in H4 In this short term time frame the 15'000-15'200 area should be clearly broken on a closing basis; otherwise, as already mentioned the downward selling presure will accelerate the move ! Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Ironman8848