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Midbollingerband

ETHUSD - D1 - "TRICKY" LEVEL !In attempting to breakout the upside of the clouds the ETHUSD is currently traded at a tricky level; indeed in addition to the potential clouds breakout, which should be validated, at least by a minimum of one more daily closing above the clouds, the ETHUSD is also managing to breakout of a broad triangle pattern which if confirmed would trigger a very sharp upside move, targeting a rally of 1'375 points, in opening the door for a technical target @ 4'870.... So, what next ? Price action over the coming hours & days will give the answer; either the breakout will be validated and an upside acceleration will take place soon (very fragile between 3'600-3'000, former long black candle of Sept 7th) with a potential double top around 4'000 or breakout triangle failure and return within the triangle pattern with the next significant support around 3'150 (cluster) ahead of the triangle base support trend line, currently around the 3'000 area and also, by the way the D1 bottom clouds. Good luck Ironman8848
by Ironman8848
2
BTCUSD -D1 - IN A CHANNEL...The breakout and the last D1 closing level above the 50'000 psychological level, accelerated the upside move towards a high so far of 51'915. Currently in a new uptrend channel with its first resistance around 52'000 (former yesterday's high) ahead of former of Sept 6ht @ 52'956. On the downside the former resistance of 50'000 became now the new support to look at very carefully. Indeed, as you can see on this D1 chart, this level coincides exactly with the middle of the long black candle (Sept 7th) and also, roughly to the previous top of Aug 23rd; therefore, this 50'000 should really be seen as a PIVOT LEVEL and a failure to stay and hold above it would put the focus on the 48'000 zone, which is currently the top of the clouds, ahead of the support trend line of the channel, currently around 46'330-45'430 , also cluster TS, KS and MBB ! Last, but not least, a potential double top @ 52'956 could be triggered and can not be totally ruled out (watch indicators to detect bearish divergences !!) As always, monitor also shorter intraday time frames. All the best Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - POTENTIAL BULL TRAP ?Today, we are going to look carefully at the recent and current price action on the Daily chart. Indeed, after having, yesterday, nearly filled the technical target of the triangle pattern @ 49'421 with an intraday high @ 49'225, the BTC lost the momentum to clearly confirm the clouds breakout as you can see, for the time being, on the D1 chart ! In addition, as already mentioned yesterday, there is a potential double top in progress with the first top between Sept 15th and Sept 19th and the potential second top, currently in progress. IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE SECOND TOP AREA COINCIDES EXACTLY WITH THE CLOUDS TOP RESISTANCE !!! A failure to clearly break this 48'500 level on a daily closing basis would put again the BTC under pressure and looking below 47'000 it looks very fragile towards 46'000 (former resistance level which became new support area) ahead of 45'000 MBB/TS cluster. ON THE UPSIDE, the psychological 50'000 will be the next significant resistance level to break in order to get out of this ongoing uncertainty and indecision for further development. As already mentioned, watch carefully at all intraday time frames, in order to detect early signal (s) as divergences which would allow to act accordingly If you like my analysis, do not forget to support with a like and follow :-) Thanks in advance. Have a nice week. Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
ETHUSD - 78.6% FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT !The 78.6 % Fibonacci retracement @ 3'457 has been filled (intraday high so far @ 3'469). In addition, the ETH is still below the ongoing downtrend line resistance and last but not least BELOW THE CLOUDS on a daily basis. Therefore, further development will depend on upcoming price action over the next trading hours and will be confirmed by the daily closing level later on today. A failure to clearly breakout the 3'500 area and hold above it on a D1 closing basis, will add a renewed selling pressure putting the focus on lower levels towards 3'300/3'150 , the latter being the cluster of KS and MBB and also roughly the 38.2% Fib ret of the last 2652-3469 rally; below 3'060 (clouds support zone). An upside breakout of the downtrend line resistance would open the door for 3'676 (former high) ahead of psychological 4'000 level and also Sept 3rd high (4'027) As always, do not forget to monitor shorter time frames (intraday) in order to get early signal (s) which will help you to act accordingly in getting validation or invalidation of implications above mentioned :-) All the best Ironman8848
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - W1 - D1 - PIVOT LEVELS TO WATCH !Good morning, today we are going to look at the 2 following time frames on which there are very important PIVOTS LEVELS TO WATCH ! WEEKLY : Currently in a broad falling wedge in progress with a potential upside breakout for now around 50'500/50'600. On the downside there is really a very important level to look at carefully on a weekly closing level, later on today and this level is 46'747. Indeed, KS (or base line) should be seen as a crucial level for further development on this time frame and should be interpreted as BULLISH above and BEARISH below ! So, the validation of an upside move continuation will be given later on a weekly closing above 46'747. Should BTC failed to stay above this key pivot level, then the door would open again to the downside in a wide 45'000-40'000 trading range. DAILY : The triangle pattern implications mentioned in my previous analysis was roughly right (target expected was 49'421 and high reached so far is 48'500. Interesting to note, once again, the powerful magical effect of the clouds; indeed after having worked perfectly well, in rejecting the downside breakout, a couple days ago, now, the top of the clouds is the new resistance level, to clearly break which if it is the case would add further support for an upside continuation move. This upside breakout would also corroborate my view, above mentioned in W1. Nevertheless, I would also, suggest to look closely at the upcoming price action in shorter time frames (intraday) as there is a potential double top in progress !!! In screening carefully intraday time frames that would help you to detect early signal of a potential reversal (such as bearish divergence (s), etc) Have a nice Sunday Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - D1 - TRIANGLE IN PROGRESS ---> IMPLICATIONS !Good morning, today, we are going to look at the daily picture. Indeed, as already mentioned in my previous analysis, we can see a triangle pattern in progress with breakout levels, respectively at, currently : On the upside : 43'835 (intraday high) On the downside : 40'931 IMPLICATIONS : A clear breakout, on a daily closing of one of those levels would trigger a +/- move of 5'586, targeting respectively : On the upside : 49'421 On the downside : 35'345 Immediate level to look at very closely is @ 42'870 (TS) ! A failure to hold and stay above that area would trigger further selling pressure calling for a retest of the former support zone 41'500/40'500 which is also the trigger level of the triangle pattern breakout !!! On the upside. next significant level to look at is at 41'000 (potential upside triangle breakout) ahead of primary downtrend line resistance which also coincides with MBB (currently @ 44'543 Globally, no change in my view, we are still in a broad bearish strategic structure and recent and current price action should only be seen as a corrective move and not as a trend reversal yet. !!! SELL ON RALLY ! Warning : Only a sustainable move above 45'500 (former D1 support trend line) and a daily closing level above this area,would force me to a view reassessment of my bearish expected scenario calling for lower levels towards the triangle target @ 35'345 As usual, do not forget to monitor closely intraday time frames in starting from H4, H1 and shorter to catch early signal (s) such as divergences which will allow you to act accordingly. I reiterate again my warning in telling you that each tactical countertrend exposure should be protected with a tight trailing stop loss ! Please do not forget to do it. Do you like my analysis, so do not forget 1) to like it and 2) to add me on your following list ! Many thanks in advance. :-) Have a great day and all the best. Take care Ironman 8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - H4 - PULLBACK ATTEMPT !Today we are going to look at three time frames : Firstly the 4 hours where the base of the triangle is currently under attack with an ongoing pullback attempt Secondly, the hourly to see if there is & are potential reversal signal (s) Thirdly, the daily picture to have a global overview of what is going on Let's go to the 4 HOURS CHART : Currently, after having briefly reached an intraday low of 41'982 (so far !), below the triangle support trend line, the BTC is attempting to recover with a pullback which should, of course, be confirmed over the coming hours ! A failure to quickly recover within the triangle pattern and above the cluster (@ 42'870/42'930) would confirm further downside in the cards. TRIANGLE BREAKOUT GIVES A TECHNICAL TARGET @ 36'732 ( - 13.19 % or - 5586 pts) Intermediate supports @ 40'800 (former double bottom) ahead of 39'573 former intraday low of Sept 21st Last but not least, as a gentle remember, the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement is @ 37'903 and should also be seen, as an important support level to consider Should BTC recover sharply and breakout the upside of the triangle, the technical target would be 49'686 ! (unlikely for the time being) HOURLY: As for H4, currently in an upside corrective move, currently facing the bottom of the clouds resistance and TS too ! Interesting to note that the top of the clouds, also coincides with the cluster of KS and MBB, around 43000/43100 which roughly corroborate the resistance area above mentioned on H4 ! So watch the clouds and monitor closely price action over the coming hours which will help you to get validation or invalidation of the triangle implication previously explained. DAILY : Global picture remains heavy ! Currently traded below the downtrend line resistance and below KS, MBB and TS. For the time being still in the clouds which is showing a sideways price action and could be seen, in this time frame as NEUTRAL ! LEVELS TO WATCH ON D1 ARE THE FOLLOWING : Upside : 45'000 Downside : 40'000 Have a nice trading day. All the best and take care. If you like my analysis and you find it valuable for your trading strategies, please do not forget to like it and for those who does not follow me yet, also please add me on your following list. All the best Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD - H4 - TRIANGLE IN PROGRESS ! IMPLICATIONS ?Good morning, today we are looking at the 4 hours time frame which is showing a triangle formation in progress. As mentioned in my previous analysis, the 44'200 level should be considered as an important resistance area, which, for the time being has not been broken on a H4 closing basis yet. Indeed, this pivot level should not be underestimated as it is also : 1) the top of the H4 clouds resistance area; 2) the potential breakout level of the triangle formation in progress; 3) the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 48834-39573 downside move. In addition, RSI indicator is also in progress to breakout the 50 level. A next H4 closing level above 44'200 would be the first warning signal, calling for further upside ! Triangle breakout, on one or on the other side, would imply, a move of 5'586 points, targeting respectively 49'786 (psychological 50'000 level) on the upside and 36440 on the downside (roughly the weekly clouds bottom level So, watch carefully price action over the coming hours, in looking at the shorter time frames in order to detect early signal (s) which would validate or invalidate the potential triangle breakout above mentioned. On the downside, a sustainable move below 43'500 (see H1 chart) should also be seen as the first warning signal for further downside, targeting 42'600 ahead of 41'950, currently the level of the triangle support trend line. CONCLUSION : WATCH THE CLOUDS ! Have a nice day All the best and take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - D1 - WATCH THE CLOUDS !Good morning, today we are going to look at the daily picture again. Indeed, as you clearly can see on this chart, the bottom of the clouds in this time frame, worked, once again perfectly well in rejecting the breakout attempt with an intraday low, below the clouds @ 39573. BTCUSD is currently traded at, I would say a key pivot level on the daily picture; indeed the 41'800/42'000 area, should be seen, on a daily closing basis as an important level for further development. This area (41'800) coincides with the middle level of the 3rd black candle which has been triggered by yesterday's price action with a closing level within the clouds @ 40'596. A failure to recover, hold and close above the 42'000 would add further selling pressure in the cards in opening the door for lower levels, targeting first the clouds breakout ahead of 37'904 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 28'600-2956 rally. A successful recovery would put the focus on the 44'000 area, being both former minor and fragile uptrend line support (in green) and also KS. Very important to note that, strategically speaking we are currently in a broad bearish trend and any recovery should only be seen as a corrective move for the time being. ONLY A CLEAR BREAKOUT OF THE ONGOING DOWNTREND LINE RESISTANCE, WHICH ALSO COINCIDES ROUGHLY WITH THE TOP OF THE DAILY CLOUDS WOULD FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF MY BEARISH VIEW That's why, any long tactical exposure (countertrend) should be closely monitored and managed with tight trailing stop losses !!! Good luck and have a nice day All the best and take care Last but not least, please do not hesitate to like my idea if you find my analysis valuable for you. Many thanks in advance. Kind regards. Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTCUSD - H4/H1 - INDECISIONGood morning, today we are going to look at the H4 and H1 time frames which are both showing some growing uncertainty about further development. Indeed, I mentioned in my previous analysis to look carefully at the 48'000 as a barometer indicator and looking at recent and current price action we can note, so far, some lack of momentum to clearly confirm a breakout of the level above mentioned. In addition, on H4, a RSI bearish divergence has already been triggered which pushed, slighlty down the BTC towards KS and clouds support zone which hold for the time being. Please note that the recent low (47613) also, coincides with the new minor support trend line (in green on H4) So, on H4 : on the downside , watch carefully the cluster support area (47'947-47'768) as a failure to hold above this zone would open the door for the clouds zone with its bottom line currently around 46'000 ! on the upside , watch former high 48834 and check RSI which will validate (convergence) or invalide (divergence) further upside !!! and on H1 : watch the cluster (48'000-48'225) on a closing basis ! failure to close above 48'225 and hold in a sustainable manner, would put some short term selling pressure, opening the door first for the very thin cloud support area (fragile !!!) On the upside watch for a potential upside breakout of the ongoing slightly uptrend channel. Have a nice Sunday and all the best. Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - D1 - WATCH CLUSTER @ 47'900 !Good morning, today we are going to look at the daily picture which yesterday, on a closing basis, triggered a bullish engulfing pattern. Indeed, as mentioned in my previous analysis (see related ideas below) I highlighted, the importance of the clouds support zone on this D1 time frame and you can see the confirmation on the chart. Clouds once again worked perfectly well, this time as a support zone which triggered this recovery seen yesterday. So what next ? Despite this nice yesterday's move, BTCUSD remains under the influence of this long bearish black candle of Sept 7th with a very strong resistance area (cluster around 47'900 which should be clearly broken on a daily closing). As long as this cluster is not broken, the pressure remains on the downside, we are currently facing a minor resistance which was the former congestion bottom seen over a couple days at the end of August. IMPLICATIONS : 1) On the upside, a sustainable move above the cluster of 47'900 should be seen as a first warning signal which would neutralise the ongoing downside risk and open the door first for the psychological 50'000 level ahead of former high @ 52'956 2) On the downside, a failure to stay and hold above 46'000 on a closing basis would trigger a dark cloud clover and put the focus once again on the daily top clouds support area, currently @ 45'000 CONCLUSION : Watch shorter time frames : On H4, currently trying to breakout the clouds resistance area and on H1 there is a bearish divergence which has been confirmed; on H1 watch at 46'900 ahead of 46'700 (MBB) of a warning confirmation for a reversal calling potentially for a return towards 46'250 and a failure to hold above this level would directly put the focus on the 45'000 area, daily target on the downside ! Have a great day and all the best Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - WATCH THE CLUSTER...H4 : Last candle closing @ 44'636 is the first warning signal which triggered, as expected and mentioned in my previous analysis published yesterday, a "shy" pullback, which should be watch at very carefully and which will be crucial for further development. Indeed, a failure to recover above the ongoing support trend line (green line) and watch also RSI which broke down as well, will confirm further downside in the cards, calling probably for a retest of former lows (44'125 ahead of 42'900) where situation should be reassessed ! (double bottom ?) On the upside, a recovery above the support trend line, would temporary neutralise the downside risk but as long as BTC stay below the H4 cluster (currently 45'508-45772), the selling pressure will remain. The MBB worked, once again, very well, breakouts attempts but...not confirmed ! A breakout of the cluster resistance area would then put the focus on the next key pivot resistance area...which is once again the H4 clouds zone (46'900-48'000). Watch shorter time frames to detect early signal (s) which will validate or invalidate the two scenarios above mentioned. Have a nice day & week. All the best and take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - WATCH CLUSTER @ 45'800 !Good morning, today, we are going to look at the 4 hours time frame. Indeed, as you can see on this chart, the MBB worked perfectly well so far Therefore, I strongly suggest to look carefully at the cluster zone, currently around 45'800 (KJ and MBB) as for the time being, several upside breakouts attempts have been rejected by the Mid Bollinger Band which should be seen, once again as "THE LEADING INDICATOR" for further development. Price action seen over the last couple of hours is showing further downside in the cards and this will be confirmed by a clear breakout of the ongoing support trend line (green line) on a closing basis. A failure to stay above that line would accelerate the downside move (warning breakout, then pullback !!) towards the former low @ 44'125 ahead of Sept 7th low @ 42'900. A move towards the latter level would force to look at the next support zone, this time on a daily basis, and which is, once again, the clouds support zone, as mentioned in my previous analysis (see related ideas below). Have a nice Sunday, relax, take care and all the best Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - WATCH THE CLOUDS !Good Morning to all of you :-) Hope you are well today ? We are going to look at the daily time frame today. Indeed, following the bearish engulfing pattern triggered a couple of days ago (very long black candle) and the downside breakout of the cluster (TS, MBB and KS), the BTC attempted to recover without great success so far as you can see in this chart !!! More important, it did not achieved to retest the Kijun-Sen (former support level) which became now the first significant resistance level to look carefully at. So what next ? Well, looking at the last 3 days price action, I have to say that it is not very encouraging and that the ongoing downside move is likely to continue for a while in this D1 time frame. First significant support is at arount 43'000/42'900 which is the former low reached on Sept 7th and which also coincides with the top of the clouds support area. Globally I would recommand to look globally at the clouds zone as a very good support area indicator; in addition, the 50% Fib ret of the 28'600-52956 rally is @ 40'778, being currently, roughly in the middle of the clouds support area. CONCLUSION : D1 GLOBAL PICTURE REMAINS BEARISH, SHOWING A SELL ON RALLY STRATEGICALLY ; ANY TACTICAL LONG EXPOSURE TRIGGERED BY SIGNAL (S) IN SHORTER TIME FRAMES SHOULD BE MANAGED WITH DISCIPLINE IN PUTTING IN PLACE TIGHT TRAILING STOP LOSS !!!! Once again, if you find my analysis as an added value for your trading strategies, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow Ironman8848, please also add him on your following list. Many thanks in advance All the best, take care and have a wonderful weekend Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
BTC - H4 - MBB --> LEADING INDICATOR !Today we are looking at the H4 time frame. The triangle formation I mentioned yesterday did not really worked ! Nevertheless, the 46'900 area worked, so far, perfectly well in rejecting the breakout attempt on the upside . We can see now a switch in price action, from a uptrend (green arrow) to a downtrend (red arrow) with a first pullback rejected by the new downtrend line resistance. So what next ? There are levels to look at very carefully in this 4 hours time frame, which are : 46'896 on the upside (MBB) 45'900 on the downside, former congestion support zone (very fragile !) A breakout of one of those levels in H4 closing basis will likely trigger another 1'000 points move, targeting respectively 47'928 on the upside and 45'000 area on the downside. CONCLUSION : Do not forget to screen very carefully shorter time frames to detect early signal (s), such as bullish divergences, to help you to act accordingly in putting in place tactical long exposure protected with a tight trailing stop loss !! Have a great trading day. If you like my analysis and you find it is added value for you, please do no forget to like it and if you do not follow me yet, please add Ironman8848 to your following list. Many thanks in advance :-) Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - MULTI TIME FRAMES - AT A GLANCE - WATCH 46'747 / 43'353 !M1 : 50 % Fibonacci retracement (64'895-28'600) @ 46'747 filled intra month high of 46787 W1 : Kijun Sen @ 46'747 should be seen as THE KEY PIVOT LEVEL on this time frame !!! Indeed a weekly closing above this point would be the first significant signal calling for further upside towards the psychological 50'000 level ahead of 51'030 (61.8% Fib ret). On the downside watch at 43'353 (Mid Bollinger Band) as the first important support level. D1: As long as the 42'614 level hold, picture remains positive; it is likely, after the recent ra lly from 37'300, to assist to a consolidation phase with first support @ 42'614 and more important, the MBB currently @ 41'130 which should be seen in this time frame as the KEY PIVOT LEVEL as well. Interesting to not how well the Mid Bollinger Band worked well in the past. H4: As you can see on this chart, both the clouds and MBB worked perfectly well as a very important support zone; H1 : A new short term downtrend is taking place with, an it is not a secret, the clouds as the first support zone, currently between 45'500 and 44'800. The lagging line is still above the clouds too. M30 : Bottom of the clouds currently under attack, supported with a lagging line, still above the clouds too M15 : Currently in a downtrend mode, pullback attempt has been stopped by the clouds resistance zone in this time frame and the lagging line is below the clouds !!! M5 : The intraday low @ 45'425 triggered a RSI bullish divergence which pushed BTC to the upside towards a high of 46'236, 2 hours ago and it has been short lived as the BTC is again below the clouds and the lagging line is flirting also with the bottom of the clouds. C ONCLUSION : 2 very important levels to watch at very carefully : 46'747 and 43'353 on a weekly closing Have a nice trading day All the best and take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - Mid Bollinger Band under attack !H4 time frame is showing an ongoing bearish price action, putting now the Mid Bollinger Band, currently @ 43'238 under attack. Therefore, MBB, should now be seen as the LEADING INDICATOR for the upcoming hours. Indeed, a failure to hold and stay sustainably above this important support level, would open the door for further downside, having in mind the next significant support and key pivot level @ 41'327. In addition, the bearish mood has been confirmed by a RSI bearish divergence on D1 ! Watch carefully at shorter time frames and especially at the clouds support zone, around 42'300/42'400 as a short term intraday indicator as a breakout of that support area would directly put the focus on KS @ 41'327 In order to neutralise the ongoing downside risk, the BTC should quickly recover and hold above TS or conversion line, currently @ 44'083. Have a nice day. All the best and take care. If you like my analysis, please do not hesitate to show it and if you do not follow me yet please do it as well. Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
4
BTC - W1 - LAST WEEK PRICE ACTION TRIGGERED A BULLISH ENGULFING Good morning friends ! Today, we are looking to the weekly time frame on which, last week price action triggered a bullish engulfing pattern. In addition, W1 closing (@ 35428) was above an important resistance level (34'970) already mentioned in my previous analysis which may force to a view reassessment of the situation, depending of the followup ! Nevertheless, as you know, any breakout should always been confirmed and as we look at a weekly chart, a lot of things could happen until the next weekly closing... We also can see a breakout of the former downtrend line resistance and not surprising, the level of the breakout coincides roughly with the level of TS at around 34'970. Therefore, this former resistance level (34970) became now the new support level to watch at very carefully !!!! Indeed, I would warn about potential "mirror effect) following this sharp upside move seen over the last couple of hours; a failure to stay and hold above 34'970 would confirm a potential "bull trap". Looking on the upside, firstly, 40'000 should again be seen as "THE PSYCHOLOGICAL" resistance to break ahead of the 38.2% Fib ret @ 42'465; above, the next significant level of 44'435 ( MBB ) and finally KS (46'747) which is also the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 64895-28600 downside move. CONCLUSION : Watch carefully at the shorter time frame to detect potential bearish divergences which could be the first signal (s) of a reversal price action or upside trend continuation. Watch also daily clouds (very thick currently) ! BTC needs to clearly move above the clouds, which should also be confirmed by an upside breakout of the Chikou (lagging span) too.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H1 - RISING WEDGE TARGET REACHED @ 53067 !H1 : The rising wedge target @ 53067 has been reached, low being 52603 ! Last H1 candle triggered a hammer pattern with its closing level roughly at the congestion zone of previous candles. Therefore, as mentioned, in M15, short term recovery is in process with upside potential pretty limited. Indeed, this H1 time frame is showing from the rising wedge breakout, two successive pullback attempts which both failed. In order to neutralise the ongoing downside risk, BTC should recover above all important indicators, cluster being the former support trend line (in green) and the Mid Bollinger Band, currently @ 54987. Should this kind of move occurs, that would only be the first step of this short term recovery as the main obstacle is the clouds resistance area ranging between 55500 and 55750. ONLY A SUCCESS SUSTAINABLE BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION OF THE CLOUDS WOULD ADD SOME RESPITE TO THIS ONGOING BEARISH PRICE ACTION !
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - IN A CRITICAL SUPPORT ZONE !D1 : Yesterday's price action, after having reached a low of 53'400, recovered nicely and triggered a bullish engulfing pattern with a closing level exactly at the bottom support line of the ongoing uptrend channel. Ongoing today's price action is showing for the time being a reversal price action which of course should be confirmed this evening on a closing basis on this time frame. Nevertheless, as you can see on this chart, BTC is currently traded in a critical support zone. A failure to stay and hold above the uptrend support trend line (in green) would be negative and would open the door for the very important support area, which is the clouds zone ranging from 54600 towards 49990 with the 38.2% Fib ret @ 51106 ! Therefore, I would suggest to monitor closely price action over the day on shorter time frames which will give you intermediate validation or invalidation on the expected bearish scenario. CONCLUSION : BULLISH SCENARIO : IN ORDER TO NEUTRALISE THIS ONGOING BEARISH PRICE ACTION, BTC SHOULD : 1) REENTER IN THE UPTREND CHANNEL AND HOLD IN IT 2) RECOVER AND HOLD ABOVE THE MID BOLLINGER BAND (58906) 3) CONFIRMATION OF THE BREAKOUT OF THE ONGOING DOWNTREND LINE RESISTANCE (BEARISH PHASE IV) BEARISH SCENARIO (EXPECTED) AS MENTIONED ABOVE IN MY ANALYSIS
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
3
BTC - H1/M15 - The Magic of Fibonacci...H1 : Nice recovery towards a high of 57'555, filling it its way the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 57386 ! It failed, for the time being to breakout the clouds resistance area. Interesting to note that the last candles get smaller and smaller... Therefore, I would strongly suggest to watch carefully price action over the coming hours, as above the clouds there is a very fragile zone(57500-60000) BULLISH : A breakout success would accelerate the upside move sharply (look at the shape of the clouds !) and open the door for the psychological 60'000 area again BEARISH : On the downside, first support to be considered is the support uptrend line starting from the low reached yesterday @ 51541 and which is currently around 56500; below, the Mid Bollinger Band which as usual should be seen as a very good indicator for further development. M15 : Currently in a uptrend channel and above the clouds which are in this time zone around the 56500 which coincides also with the level of the H1 support trend line above mentioned. CONCLUSION : WATCH THE CLOUDS !
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - H1 - WARNING - POTENTIAL BULL TRAP !H1 : The upside triangle breakout triggered a nice move which went up so far towards a high of 61234 (potential double top formation !) Indeed, looking at the breakout price action, you can see, firstly the breakout followed by a pullback towards the former resistance area, which hold and which triggered the next upside leg with a long white candle and then a "shooting star". Important to note that the high of this shooting star coincides roughly with the former high seen in April 10th @ 61222. In addition, technical indicators are for most of them not converging but are rather showing bearish divergences !!! Therefore, I would strongly suggest to look at carefully the former triangle apex which should be seen as the short term cluster support. Indeed, a failure to stay and hold above the already mentioned several times, 60'000 level would reopen the door for lower levels with immediate congestion zone support shown by the clouds support area 59800-59300 !!! M15 : Watch Mid Bollinger Band currently @ 60400 as the first very short term support level ! Interesting to note that the M15 clouds support zone coincides also with the ongoing very short term support trend line which is currently around 59800
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
5