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Midbollingerband

BTC - H4 - CURRENTLY IN A TRANSITION ZONE !H4 : The 58400 important support area mentioned yesterday worked perfectly well, coupled with the failure to breakout both the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen (Base line). This rejection triggered a nice upside move, once again above the 60'000.. but it did not hold above it.. so far. No change in my view, as long as clear breakout of the 60'000 in holding sustainably above it the downside risk is still present ¨ TWO IMPORTANT LEVEL TO WATCH ON A H4 CLOSING BASIS : 60100 ON THE UPSIDE 58400 ON THE DOWNSIDE Indeed 2 closing prices above or below one of those levels will show a new trading range for the upcoming trading hours Watch H1 and M15 to get intermediate signal (s) which will validate or invalidate the expected scenarios above mentioned. Have a nice Sunday All the best Take care and have fun
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - H1/M15 - SHORT TERM SUPPORT ZONE 60400-60000 !H1 : Clear breakout of the 58400 cluster area triggered a sharp upside move acceleration (successive long white bullish candles !) Nevertheless, such kind of price action may trigger an mirror effect and therefore I would suggest to remain cautious as mentioned in my previous H4 analysis. A failure to hold above the 60'000 would be the first signal of further weakness which would be confirmed by a breakout of both Tenkan-Sen (conversion line) and Kijun-Sen (base line), respectively, currently @ 59546 and 59439. Such kind of price action would direcly put the focus on the Mid Bollinger Band support @ 58950 ahead of the former cluster resistance zone of 58400, which also coincides with the uptrend support line which started @ 55441 M15 : Short term support zone between 60400 and 60000 (59939 being the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (57840-61222) A failure to hold above that zone would also confirm a downside breakout of the Mid Bollinger Band . Interesting to note the fragility of the 59100-60400 trading range and a sharp downside move can not be ruled out (mirror effect !! Should this bearish scenario occurs, minor support are @ 59530 ahead of 59130 and as mentioned in H1 58400 as a very important support zone to look at
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - INTRADAY - WATCH THE CLOUDS...H1 : Failure to recover above the ongoing downtrend line resistance triggered selling pressure which pushed down, currently, the BTC below the Mid Bollinger Band. For the time being the 23.6% Fib ret @ 57701 has been filled; next significant support is @ 57270 (38.2 % Fib ret & top of the clouds support zone and the base of the ongoing uptrend channel). Interesting to note that the clouds support zone is between the 38.2% and the 61.8% Fib ret of the last (55441-58400) rally. WATCH THE CLOUDS :-) On the upside, in order to neutralise the ongoing downside risk, BTC needs to clearly breakout and hold above the 58400 area ! M15 : Currently below the Mid Bollinger Band and the clouds too. Watch carefully ongoing very short term price action as a failure to hold above former lows (potential double bottom @ 57657) should trigger a downside acceleration move, calling for 57270, ahead of 57000/56500
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - 2 OPEN SCENARIOSH4 : Ongoing price action in a triangle formation and currently traded roughly in the middle of the clouds and below the Mid Bollinger Band ! Watch at carefully a triangle breakout which will trigger a move 3600 points targeting respectively 53650 on the downside and 62850 on the upside. Taking in account the ongoing price action the odds are more calling for a downside breakout than for an upside one ! Watch shorter time frames H1 and M15 to get intermediate signal (s) which will validate or invalidate the scenarios above mentioned. In order to neutralise the ongoing downside risk, BTC needs to recover and hold above the psychological level of 60000 !
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - INTRADAY - THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND...H1 : Nice short term recovery towards nearly the 61.8% Fib ret (58527) from the expected target(56532) reached yesterday. Second failure attempt toe recover above the clouds resistance area. Recent price action is showing a potential double bottom in progress... without great conviction ! A failure to hold above the former low @ 56466 would directly put the focus on the 55000 area, which is a small congestion zone support seen in the past. Interesting to note the fragility of the 56500-55000 trading range !!! In order to neutralise the ongoing bearish price action, we need to see a recovery which should hold above the 58100 area (above the clouds) M15 : 2 short term downtrend lines in this time frame and the last short term uptrend line broken by the failure to hold above the clouds. Watch the clouds as one of the first indicator which will show the direction. Have a nice trading day All the best Take care
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - ONGOING POTENTIAL HEAD AND SHOULDERS IN PROGRESS ON D1...D1 : Recent price action is confirming a potential Head and Shoulders in progress on D1. Nevertheless, such kind of formation will be confirmed only by a breakout of the neckline which for the time being is still away of current level... Important to note, that for the time being, on D1, the BTC is still above the MID BOLLINGER BAND ! A daily closing below 56700 confirmed by another breakout of the Kijun-Sen @ 56070 would also add more selling pressure, having in mind the H & S neckline level, currently around 54000/53500. H4 : Recent recovery from the expected target reached yesterday (see previous H1 analysis) triggered a small recovery which still should be seen as a corrective move only in a bear trend. Indeed, BTC recovered towards of high of 58501, reaching nearly the 61.8% Fib ret @ 58527 ! In addition, this recovery also failed to recover above the Mid Bollinger Band and currently BTC is traded somewhere in the middle of the clouds support zone. Again and again, watch carefully at the clouds on which the bottom line is currently around the 55000 area. ONLY A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY ABOVE 60'000 WOULD INVALIDATE THE EXPECTED BEARISH SCENARIO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - H4 - WATCH MID BOLLINGER BAND AS THE LEADING INDICATOR !H4 : Once again we can see another failure to upside breakout the psychological resistance level of 60'000. Indeed, as already mentioned several times, ONLY a clear breakout of this area would allow further upside which would put the focus on former high @ 61781. Until this breakout occurs, I strongly suggest to watch very carefully at the Mid Bollinger Band which should still be seen as the "LEADING INDICATOR" and which worked, perfectly well so far. A failure to hold above MBB and Kijun-Sen (Base line), would trigger a sharp downside move, as seen several times in the past ! Watch H1 and M15 to get intermediate signal (s) for validation or invalidation Have a nice weekend All the best Take care and do not forget to like and follow me if you find my analysis valuable for you
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
8
BTC - INTRADAY - WATCH THE CLOUDS...H1 : Clouds remain a good indicator as shown on H1. Indeed, each downside clouds breakouts attempts has been rejected by the clouds which worked perfectly well as support area. Therefore, continue to watch at very carefully the clouds support zone (58600-58250) which also coincides with the ongoing support trend line (in blue) A failure to hold above, firstly the Mid Bollinger Band (59178) and secondly, the clouds would directly put the focus on the former low @ 56713 ahead of the 55000 area (former congestion support zone) On the other side, if BTC clearly break the psychological level of 60000 in holding above it, that would open the door for a retest of previous high @ 61781. H1 technical indicators are showing some "signs of fatigue" and it is likely to see a downside move in the coming hours. M15 : Curently in the middle of a broad wedge formation. Wait and watch for an exit of this formation, as a breakout on one or the other side will give a good indication for a new trading range. Have a good day
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H1/M15 - WATCH THE CLOUDS...H1 : After having reached a high of 56686, BTC is trading now in a sideways price action and currently below the Mid Bollinger Band and also below the middle level of the ongoing uptrend channel. Watch carefully at both side of this uptrend channel as a breakout would show the direction. M15: Breakout of the clouds, close to the former high of 55597. A failure to hold above this level would put the focus on the 23.6% Fib ret @ 55193 ahead of the uptrend support line around the 55000. Below the 38.2 % Fib ret @ 54269 will be the next support
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
6
BTC - H1/M15 - CLOUDS, CLOUDS AND CLOUDS...H1 : Currently above the clouds support zone and also above the downtrend line resistance. Nevertheless, indicators looks tired, 3 successive dojis patterns and after having nearly reached the 78.6% Fib ret @ 55741, it is likely to see a trend reversal. Watch Mid Bollinger Band as the first significant support as a failure to hold above it, would give the first signal of an upcoming downside move calling for a move towards the 53000/52000 area, being the clouds support area. On the upside, watch former high and 55750 as first minor resistance area; above focus will be on former high @ 57207 M15: Switched from an uptrend channel to a sideways-slightly downside new channel and currently testing the clouds support area and also the middle level of this new downtrend channel. An exit, on the downside, of the former uptrend channel, currently around the 54000 would confirm further downside.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
9
BTC- D1 - NICE RECOVERY... AND STILL IN A BEARISH MODE...D1 : After having nearly reached the expected target which were respectively 50187 (61.8% Fib ret) and the psychological support level of 50'000 in moving down towards an intraday low of 50360, the BTC recovered nicely towards an intraday high so far of 55597. This recent price action triggered a long white candle (bullish engulfing pattern) which on its upside move broke the Kijun-Sen line (currently @ 54037) but failed on a closing basis, yesterday to move above Tenkan-Sen (currently @ 55158), where we are at the moment. Interesting that this long bullish candle did not trigger a big volume !!! Key resistance area on D1 basis, remains Mid Bollinger Band (currently @ 56163) which also coincides with the current downtrend line resistance level. Therefore, unless a clear breakout of this zone occurs soon, recent and current price action should still be seen as a "NICE" corrective move only.. in a still ongoing bearish picture. Watch H4 and shorter time frames H1 and M15 to get clues about further intraday development which will allow you to act accordingly. Have a nice weekend and have fun All the best Take care and do not forget, if you like my analysis to like it and follow me Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - H4 - TRIANGLE TARGET @ 48455H4 : Triangle target is @ 48455. Nevertheless, as mentioned, in my previous D1 post, it is likely and it is in progress, to see some recovery process which is expected to be relatively limited. Indeed, global picture remains heavy and is calling for further downside. Tenkan-Sen (@ 54355) will be the first resistance level to break ahead of the Mid Bollinger Band (@55110) A recovery above the latter level would neutralise, at least on short term, the current downside risk. Interesting to note the thickness of the clouds resistance area which is indicating some fragility as seen on the downside breakout, a couple days ago ! Watch H1 and M15 to get potential corrective targets
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - 50% FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT @ 52401 FILLED !D1 : Ongoing bearish price action; failure, yesterday, to recover and hold above the current downtrend line resistance (57000-57500) triggered a new wave of selling pressure which pushed down the BTC towards a low so far of 51503. After this decline it is natural to see some recovery which is expected once again, in this current condition, to be relatively limited, for the time being. In order to neutralise the current downside risk, calling for further downside towards the 61.8% Fib ret @ 50187 ahead of the strong support zone on the psychological level of 50000, BTC need to quickly recover, firstly above the Mid Bollinger Band, currently @ 55742 and secondly above the downtrend line above mentioned. ONLY SUCH KIND OF PRICE ACTION WOULD CONFIRM A TREND REVERSAL ! Watch H4, H1 and M15 to get intermediate signal (s) Have a nice trading day. All the best Take care
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - SECOND CLOSING BELOW MID BOLLINGER BAND !D1 : For the second consecutive session, D1 closing has been below the Mid Bollinger Band. Indeed, yesterday's price action, despite a new upside of MBB attempt, finally triggered a "doji" pattern = uncertainty and indecision. Watch ongoing price action and keep an eye on the 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 52401 as the next important support level. Important to note the "fragility" of the 54000-50000 trading zone and we may see a "mirror effect" of the price action seen on 8th and 9th March. As already mentioned the psychological level of 50000 coincides roughly with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement @ 50187 of the 43021-61781 rally. Last but not least the D1 clouds support zone is also around 50000... Watch also carefully price action on shorter time frames, H4,H1 and M15 Have a nice trading day All the best and take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H1/M15 - PULLBACK ?H1 : Currently in a downtrend channel. In order to neutralise this ongoing bearish price action, we need to see an exit on the upside of this downtrend channel. Important to note that the Mid Bollinger Band in this time frame coincides also roughly with the resistance level of the downtrend channel. M15 : Indicators are showing some signs of potential bullish divergences. Therefore, watch carefully at the ongoing period in progress and at the upcoming too. If bullish divergences are confirmed, that would open the door for a rally towards the 54000/54300 area which would be the first cluster resistance and then the next resistance area would be the clouds zone with the first Fibonacci retracement @ 55160 Globally picture remains heavy and any long positions, for the time being should only be initiated on a tactical view in a very short term trading horizon in a broad bear trend which took place following recent development in D1 and H4
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1/H4 - BEARISH STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT CONFIRMED !D1 : For the first time since March 6th, BTC closed down blow the Mid Bollinger Band ! This recent price action should considered and seen as very serious. Indeed, as already mentioned several times in the past, the MID BOLLINGER BAND should be seen as THE LEADING INDICATOR, which means BULLISH above and BEARISH below. The 38.2% Fib ret @ 54614 has already been filled, low so far being 53120. Next target is @ 52401 , which is th 50% Fib ret and last but not least also the level of Kijun-Sen or Base line ! Below the psychological support level of 50'000 with the 61.8% Fib ret @ 50187 Nevertheless, after this sharp decline, a pullback might be seen which would be healthy and would provide better levels to SELL on rally. In order to neutralise this ongoing BEARISH PRICE ACTION, BTC should recover above the cluster (57200-57500) created by : A) the former clouds support whichbecame new resistance level B)the support base of the triangle pattern which has been activated on the downside. C) the Mid Bollinger Band on H4 H4 : Finally the BEARISH won the battle in breaking down the triangle pattern. The very thin clouds support zone, as expected, has been broken very easily and triggered a sharp acceleration. Technical indicators are not showing any signs of reversal yet; nevertheless, as usual, check and monitor closely price action on shorter time frames to detect early signal (s) as bullish divergences which would allow you to cover short positions or initiate a short term long (speculative !) position (trend contrarian) having in mind a pullback. Have a nice trading day and have fun. All the best and do not forget to like and follow me if you find my analysis valuable for you... Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1/H4 - AT A GLANCE...D1 : Caught in a 55500-60000 trading range in the last couple of days. Important to note the level of Mid Bollinger Band which is currently @ 55313 and which hold since the 8th March... Price action seen over the last 4 days is showing narrow range between opening and closing level which confirm some indecision and uncertainty about further direction . While, on one hand, BTC is still trading above the secondary support trend line, on the other hand, it is currently in a new downtrend price action. The 57500 area should be seen as a pivot level. H4 : Below Mid Bollinger Band and roughly in the middle of the triangle pattern. Breakout should occur soon or later and depending on the side, that will give important information for the upcoming trading hours & sessions. Once again the clouds support zone remains very thin, meaning, very fragile !!! Watch carefully price action on shorter time frames H1 and M15 Have a nice week Have fun Happy trading
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - TRIANGLE PATTERN - BREAKOUT IMPLICATIONS !H4 : Still under the influence of a triangle pattern in progress. Failure to upside breakout on 4 successive attempts triggered an opposite move which on its way broke the Mid Bollinger Band support level. As a result, both triangle base and clouds support are not far away. In addition, it is important to note the fragility of the clouds which is currently very thin !! Implications of a triangle breakout are pretty clear on the chart and the expected amplitude is shown in green on a bullish scenario and in red in a bearish scenario. For the time being, it is expected to rather see a downside breakout than an upside one. Therefore, continue to watch carefully shorter time frames H1 and M15 in order to get early signal (s) which will allow you to act accordingly. Have a nice Sunday All the best.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - TRIANGLE PATTERN IN PROGRESS !H4 : A triangle pattern is in progress and currently BTC is trying to upside breakout the clouds. As you can see, once again, Mid Bollinger Band worked perfectly well in rejecting a downside breakout attempt. Therefore, I would suggest to watch two important level which will determine upcoming price action. UPSIDE : Downtrend line resistance which is also the top of the triangle pattern DOWNSIDE : Mid Bollinger Band A clear breakout of one of those 2 levels above mentioned should trigger an acceleration having in mind on the bullish side a retest of historical high first and then higher (triangle target being @ around 68000 ! On the other hand, a clear breakout of 57220 (MBB) would directly put the focus on the bottom line of the ongoing triangle pattern which is also the clouds bottom zone. Conclusion ; Watch carefully price action on shorter time frames to be able to act accordingly and efficiently.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - TIMIDLY ABOVE THE CLOUDS...H4 : Once again the clouds worked perfectly well in rejecting a downside breakout attempt. Price action post FED announcement triggered a long white bullish candle which help to get out of the clouds zone. BTC went even higher towards the middle level of the current ongoing uptrend channel in reaching an intraday high of 59559, filling in its way the 61.8% Fib ret of the last downside leg (61781-53221), the 78.6 % being @ 59949. Therefore, ongoing price action should be watch at very carefully as 2 scenarios could be seen : SCENARIO A : BULLISH Ongoing upside price action within the uptrend channel with a breakout of both middle level of the uptrend channel and 78.6% Fib ret which would clearly put the focus on historical high @ 61781 and higher (next target being 65576, Pitchfork 2 on W1) SCENARIO B : BEARISH Failure to hold above the clouds, would reopen the door for the bottom of the uptrend channel (MBB too !) and also the bottom of the clouds, and the former low @ 53221 Interesting to note, that, currently the clouds are thicker and therefore due to this specific thickness, it should be seen as a stronger support, more difficult to break. Watch shorter time frames H1 and M15 to get intermediate clues about ongoing price action.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - NICE RECOVERY...BUT !D1 : Despite a new downtrend which took place before yesterday, price action shown yesterday (thanks to the FED !) triggered a nice recovery towards a high reached early this morning @ 59559 (might be a sign as I was born in 19.. 59, no I am joking...) That said, despite this, not negligeable recent rally (+ roughly 10 % in a couple of hours), BTC did not managed to recover above the primary uptrend support line which should still be seen as one of the important level to break on the upside in order to get out of this remaining bearish pressure as for the time being, unfortunately recent and current price action should still be seen as a corrective move. 57500 on the downside is the first significant support level to look at which is also the Tenkan-Sen (conversion line) ! Indeed, a failure to hold above this area would directly put the focus on the secondary support trend line which for the time being rejected several downside breakout attempts. Last but not least, Mid Bollinger Band, THE LEADING INDICATOR, is @ 53255 ! In order to give additional support for an upside continuation move, we clearly need to see a breakout of the psychological resistance level of 60000 (also the area of the primary uptrend support line). Watch shorter time frames H4, H1 and M15 to get clues about upcoming price action.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H4 - CLOUDS SUPPORT HOLD !H4 : Both 38.2 % Fibonacci retracement @ 54614 and clouds support zone rejected, so far, several breakout attempts ! Nevertheless, the last H4 candle triggered a long black candle (bearish engulfing pattern !) with a closing level at the top of the clouds support area. Therefore, I would strongly suggest to continue to watch carefully at the actual ongoing uptrend channel formation, which is still alive and last but not least at the clouds support zone which both should be seen as very important indicators for further development. Indeed, firstly a failure to stay and hold inside of the uptrend channel would be the first signal of a short term trend reversal and secondly a breakout of the clouds would confirm this trend reversal, in opening the door for the psychological 50'000 support level which is also, by the way, the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement (50187) of the 43021-61781 last rally. On the upside, watch Mid Bollinger Band as the leading indicator and in order to neutralise this ongoing bearish pressure (which is still, for the time being, in this uptrend channel), we clearly need to see an upside breakout of this level, currently @ 57407.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - A NEW DOWNTREND IS TAKING PLACE...D1 : Last 2 trading sessions is showing a switch from a BULL mode to a BEAR one. Indeed, looking at the last 2 closing sessions we can see 2 black candles with the one of yesterday, closing "timidly" just above Tenkan-Sen (conversion line). Today's ongoing price action is currently under that level, in having already tested the secondary uptrend support line. A new downtrend line (in red) took place and should now, be seen as the level to break in order to neutralise the current ongoing bearish move; interesting to note that, the resistance area to break, coincides roughly with the former D1 closing high @ 57500 reached on Feb 21st. 50 % Fib ret (43021-61781) @ 52401 ! CONCLUSION : In D1 time frame, as long as BTC does not recover and hold above 57500, global picture should be seen BEARISH. A failure to hold above both Kijun-Sen (Base line) @ 52401 ahead of Mid Bollinger Band (Leading indicator) @ 51908 would confirm further downside in opening the door for the 50000 psychological support... which is also roughly the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement of the 43021-61781 rally (@50187). Have a nice trading day. All the best and take care Ironman@8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848